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Spyanalysis

SPY Short Squeeze based on RSI/post Quadruple Witchingmarkets.businessinsider.com Looking at the chart you will notice SPY has been trading flat for around 50 days. SPY has never done this before (rare). Very heavy price consolidation = breakout soon During an uptrend, the RSI tends to stay above 30 and should frequently hit 70. During a downtrend, it is rare to see the RSI exceed 70, and the indicator frequently hits 30 or under. Friday at close: RSI above 30 indicating a bullish trend is about to start despite SPY price hitting $459. Big picture: Higher lows and RSI staying above 30, lower highs for RSI, Bullish AF. Prediction end of January: $515-$530 Photos (Reddit isn't working when I upload photos) ibb.co ibb.co ibb.co Think I am wrong? Look at 12/1 - 12/3. The RSI fell below 30 indicating a bearish trend then on 12/3 the RSI was above 30 indicating a bullish trend was about to start and the following day SPY gapped up hard. In my opinion, the Friday sell-off was because England raised their interest rates which makes NO logical sense when their country is a hotspot for the new variant. The rest of Europe didn’t and won’t raise interest rates in 2022 because of the variant. The CDC states this is going to get terrible in the U.S and the media says it’s mild when it’s not. You need to look at the hospitalization data closer and you will realize it’s significantly worse than Delta. Read below, “CDC issues grim forecast warning that weekly COVID cases will jump by 55% to 1.3 MILLION by Christmas Day and that deaths will surge by 73% to 15,600 a week as Omicron becomes dominant strain.” Then look at the New York City data, NY Reports Highest Single-Day Case Total of Pandemic. This variant is extremely contagious, the bull run is just starting. Our gov won’t let the economy crash causing permanent damage to the economy when the pandemic is starting again.
AMEX:SPYLong
by AxemanFromMA
7
SPY fakeout? My thoughtsWhat seems to be a reversal on SPY begs the question, will this uptrend be sustained or reverse back to the downside? I believe we will see a sustained uptrend for the time being given signals from my indicator For those that trust their TA more then mine(to be expected) I have applied a fib retracement for resistances to watch I will now list the signals I am currently getting from my setup -Red RSI closed above 50(this means sustained upwards pressure until our white energy hits 50) -White energy is above 50(This means that we will see sideways at worst and upside at best regarding price action) -White energy is at 95(White energy resembles momentum meaning we are seeing great bullishness) What I am now watching is the Blue LSMA This Blue LSMA needs to close above 50 to indicate that price action will stay above the Bollinger Band Basis(yellow dots) I also want to watch how price action reacts to the 454 resistance and whether or not it will be broken
AMEX:SPY
by ddcakez
2
SPY Bullish CaseWe all know what they do best - print like there is no tomorrow. If 430 level hold and is bought, we will get out rally. Every guru and their subs are long to their teeth. There is cash on the sidelines. If that cash sees this as a double bottom buy the dip opportunity - to the moon we go. If this dip is not bought, look out below. 2hr shows a death cross (when 50MA crosses 200MA), 3hr is approaching a cross. 4 hr looks like a double bottom. Daily we are sitting pretty on 50MA. Short term time frames dont matter as much as long term timeframes. I am still eyeing 410-420 level but will change my mind if I see aggressive buying action today. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking buttons and making decisions for yourself. Today will not matter so stop trading and pick long term strategies, use intraday activity to help your conviction.
AMEX:SPY
by bossmodetrader
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Analysis - CorrectionHi All, What a strong close today for SPY. It certainly took Bears on surprise, the bigger surprise was Nasdaq strong pull back to green as there's a lot of FUD around inflation, which is true but FAANG stocks are too cheap to be ignore for long. Again, correction can be very tricky, I'll not assume or jump into any conclusion, we're still sitting in correction, and there're various ways Eliott's Correction can take place in ABC pattern, so place your bets accordingly. Good luck.
SP:SPX
by ActorBay
3
SPY To The Downside After that nice little end of day rally on Friday I'm looking at a price target of 385 - 380 by this upcoming Thursday to bring Spy down to the 50 or 618 fib levels. QQQ is ahead of SPY just a little in regard to fib retracement. Recently had a big upswing off of the 50 fib to above 23 fib before having an aggressive sell of > -2% in one day straight down to the 618 fib before another small rally up. EOD spy rally pushed it right above the 23 fib. Intraday charts also suggesting buyer exhaustion. Will be interesting to see if the suez canal crisis will play a "role" in market movements next week. Look forward to your thoughts. Thanks!
AMEX:SPYShort
by youssefgg
7
2/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 20202/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 2020 through the middle of 2021. 1. The gap down and down week on higher volume is telling of a coming consolidation/correction. 2. The usual 4th wave pullback formed a triangle and its measured target hit almost exactly. 3. 5th wave of primary looks to be complete. At a key area here. the 2020 up trend line will be tested here. The degree of the line and length of it tells that it may not hold much longer. An ABC correction would seem to be applicable here testing 358 then eventually 339 and maybe 330 to fill the Nov. 2020 multiple gaps.
AMEX:SPY
by jhinshaw74
1
SPY to 430 by EOY 2021We are breaking the long-term ascending wedge: - We're at resistance that's been in place since May 2019 - We're barely holding support since COVID low (this is 4th touch) -> I expect we will continue to break down out of this ascending wedge. It may be tomorrow, it may be sometime in March, but it'll happen -> Frankly, we need some consolidation with all (pick your favorite) indicator(s) signaling overbought conditions lately New Pattern: - The lows since June 2020 (roughly when we began understanding COVID and when the market became 'stable' in the new normal) create a new line of support (4x touches so far) - This will be the new support line to watch and indicates we could go as low as ~355 (7% drop from today's 382 close) on SPY if we have a continued sharp drop (aren't all drops sharp?!) - If we hold this pattern, we'll end the year with SPY between 415 and 445 (8% to 16% upside from where it is today) Macroeconomics & Fundamentals: - The FED will continue to support the markets - Big names are ready to come back and will do so with higher margins - The 'laggards' during the last 12 month's tech boom are finding their time (financials, oil, airlines/hotels, and even commodities) - Inflation and rates increases are actually a good thing - There is still a ton of cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to work: Wall Street wants to continue the ride, and Retail traders are clearly conditioned to buying the dip (looking at you GME)
AMEX:SPYLong
by HandsomeSloth
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (4 Jan – 8 Jan 2021)Markets will face their first major challenge of 2021 as the rapid spread of a new, more contagious coronavirus strain means that economic gains could still be a way off. The December jobs report on upcoming Friday could show that the pace of hiring is slowing down amid renewed pandemic-related restrictions on businesses. Meanwhile, energy traders will be turning their attention to Monday’s OPEC+ meeting where another output boost is on the agenda. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) rallied with a modest gain of +1.43% (53 points) during the final week of 2020, closing at an all time high of 3,756. At the current junction, $SPX price action remains within the tight 3% trend channel range highlighted; and there will be expectation of a minor correction in the upcoming week in technical perspective, with $SPX trading near the upper bound resistance of its trend channel. Additionally, a short term price-volume bearish divergence is also been observed.  The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, a break of the lower trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Vaccine rollout With U.S. case numbers surging and vaccinations proceeding more slowly than projected Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to enlist veterinarians and combat medics to give out coronavirus vaccinations. While the U.S. has approved two vaccines, rollout is going more slowly than the government hoped. About 2.8 million Americans received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, falling far short of a 20 million target. The U.S. is averaging 186,000 cases a day, down from a peak in mid-December of over 218,000 new infections each day. Health officials have warned that cases will likely spike again after holiday gatherings. 2. December jobs report The first major U.S. data point of 2021 will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers, which could show a loss of momentum in the labor market. November data already indicated the employment market was losing steam, with 245,000 new jobs added, the fewest in six months. For December, expectations are for an even smaller 100,000 gain. 3. OPEC+ to debate supply vs. demand The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia are to hold a virtual meeting on Monday. Oil prices ended December with gains in a positive end to a year that saw U.S. futures turn negative for the first time ever in April. In December OPEC+ held back from plans to boost output by 2 million barrels per day after implementing a record 7.7 million bpd supply cut earlier in the year to shore up prices. Instead, it increased output by 500,000 bpd and agreed that additional monthly adjustments would not exceed that amount. Russia has indicated that it will support another 500,000 bpd production increase from February, despite concerns from others in the group that it is still too early.
UShort
by jfsrevg
SPY500 - S&P500 - SPX - Sell - Daily ChartSPY500 - S&P500 - SPX - Sell - Daily Chart Sell @ Current Price approx 3527.4 yet also Major Resistance at this level Sell @ Pull back to 3558.8 Major Resistance level 1 @ 3527.4 may pull back for a better entry Major Resistance level 2 @ 3428.5 Major Resistance level 3 @ 3316.6 Take Profit @ 3251.0 Please share your opinion in the comments, and support the idea with a Like 👍 Thank you for your support 😊 Wishing you successful trading 🙏 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🔺 Disclaimer! The content of this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice. 🔺 It is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions. 🔺 You must do your own research to create your own trading plan for the market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn5418842
9/23 UPDATED BEAR THESIS $316-317 next stopKey points The DXY may bounce on resistance as shown Oil may bounce on support as shown Bonds remain unchanged as shown Need to gauge Asia's reaction from our sell off today for confirmation on tomorrows trade For those that don't understand intermarket relationships. From left to right and can start at any point. Currency ------> commodities -----------> bonds -----------> Equity -------> currency --------> commodities ---------> bonds -----------> equity. Huge markets reacting to one another, all interconnected, all correlated globally. Given the circumstances, Spy is sitting in no-mans land right now with a straight shot to 316-317, but given that the DXY and OIL is looking to bounce off support/resistance means its bullish for SPY(meaning a relief bounce is probable, but will only be able to tell at tomorrows open, we need to see how asian markets will react to our sell off today) The Dollar had a textbook breakout to the upside. When the Dollar rises, equity falls.(not all the time). When Oil loses value ----> spy loses value) My chart merely shows that OIL is near a support line and that Dollar is near a resistance = Probability of Spy having a relief bounce. The Risk vs reward is still heavily favored to the bears.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
Short/medium term Bearish thesisSeptember 28th Resistance/support will intersect and we will see downwards movement into new territory. The risk vs reward for shorting is much greater than going long at the moment. Short term Bearish/neutral Medium term Bearish Long term Bullish I believe we are setting up another Jan 2018 OR OCT 2018. Red arrows indicating heavy resistance Red Arrows resistance Blue diagnal line - current downwards trend White line- Major resistance Red line - resistance Orange line - weaker resistance Green line - March - september bullish trend. Green line intersects with white line on a catalyst day (fed speaking). We are now in a trend reversal, but need to keep an eye on these levels.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
3