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Spyanalysis

SPY to 430 by EOY 2021We are breaking the long-term ascending wedge: - We're at resistance that's been in place since May 2019 - We're barely holding support since COVID low (this is 4th touch) -> I expect we will continue to break down out of this ascending wedge. It may be tomorrow, it may be sometime in March, but it'll happen -> Frankly, we need some consolidation with all (pick your favorite) indicator(s) signaling overbought conditions lately New Pattern: - The lows since June 2020 (roughly when we began understanding COVID and when the market became 'stable' in the new normal) create a new line of support (4x touches so far) - This will be the new support line to watch and indicates we could go as low as ~355 (7% drop from today's 382 close) on SPY if we have a continued sharp drop (aren't all drops sharp?!) - If we hold this pattern, we'll end the year with SPY between 415 and 445 (8% to 16% upside from where it is today) Macroeconomics & Fundamentals: - The FED will continue to support the markets - Big names are ready to come back and will do so with higher margins - The 'laggards' during the last 12 month's tech boom are finding their time (financials, oil, airlines/hotels, and even commodities) - Inflation and rates increases are actually a good thing - There is still a ton of cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to work: Wall Street wants to continue the ride, and Retail traders are clearly conditioned to buying the dip (looking at you GME)
AMEX:SPYLong
by HandsomeSloth
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (4 Jan – 8 Jan 2021)Markets will face their first major challenge of 2021 as the rapid spread of a new, more contagious coronavirus strain means that economic gains could still be a way off. The December jobs report on upcoming Friday could show that the pace of hiring is slowing down amid renewed pandemic-related restrictions on businesses. Meanwhile, energy traders will be turning their attention to Monday’s OPEC+ meeting where another output boost is on the agenda. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) rallied with a modest gain of +1.43% (53 points) during the final week of 2020, closing at an all time high of 3,756. At the current junction, $SPX price action remains within the tight 3% trend channel range highlighted; and there will be expectation of a minor correction in the upcoming week in technical perspective, with $SPX trading near the upper bound resistance of its trend channel. Additionally, a short term price-volume bearish divergence is also been observed.  The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, a break of the lower trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Vaccine rollout With U.S. case numbers surging and vaccinations proceeding more slowly than projected Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to enlist veterinarians and combat medics to give out coronavirus vaccinations. While the U.S. has approved two vaccines, rollout is going more slowly than the government hoped. About 2.8 million Americans received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, falling far short of a 20 million target. The U.S. is averaging 186,000 cases a day, down from a peak in mid-December of over 218,000 new infections each day. Health officials have warned that cases will likely spike again after holiday gatherings. 2. December jobs report The first major U.S. data point of 2021 will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers, which could show a loss of momentum in the labor market. November data already indicated the employment market was losing steam, with 245,000 new jobs added, the fewest in six months. For December, expectations are for an even smaller 100,000 gain. 3. OPEC+ to debate supply vs. demand The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia are to hold a virtual meeting on Monday. Oil prices ended December with gains in a positive end to a year that saw U.S. futures turn negative for the first time ever in April. In December OPEC+ held back from plans to boost output by 2 million barrels per day after implementing a record 7.7 million bpd supply cut earlier in the year to shore up prices. Instead, it increased output by 500,000 bpd and agreed that additional monthly adjustments would not exceed that amount. Russia has indicated that it will support another 500,000 bpd production increase from February, despite concerns from others in the group that it is still too early.
UShort
by jfsrevg
SPY500 - S&P500 - SPX - Sell - Daily ChartSPY500 - S&P500 - SPX - Sell - Daily Chart Sell @ Current Price approx 3527.4 yet also Major Resistance at this level Sell @ Pull back to 3558.8 Major Resistance level 1 @ 3527.4 may pull back for a better entry Major Resistance level 2 @ 3428.5 Major Resistance level 3 @ 3316.6 Take Profit @ 3251.0 Please share your opinion in the comments, and support the idea with a Like 👍 Thank you for your support 😊 Wishing you successful trading 🙏 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🔺 Disclaimer! The content of this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice. 🔺 It is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions. 🔺 You must do your own research to create your own trading plan for the market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn5418842
9/23 UPDATED BEAR THESIS $316-317 next stopKey points The DXY may bounce on resistance as shown Oil may bounce on support as shown Bonds remain unchanged as shown Need to gauge Asia's reaction from our sell off today for confirmation on tomorrows trade For those that don't understand intermarket relationships. From left to right and can start at any point. Currency ------> commodities -----------> bonds -----------> Equity -------> currency --------> commodities ---------> bonds -----------> equity. Huge markets reacting to one another, all interconnected, all correlated globally. Given the circumstances, Spy is sitting in no-mans land right now with a straight shot to 316-317, but given that the DXY and OIL is looking to bounce off support/resistance means its bullish for SPY(meaning a relief bounce is probable, but will only be able to tell at tomorrows open, we need to see how asian markets will react to our sell off today) The Dollar had a textbook breakout to the upside. When the Dollar rises, equity falls.(not all the time). When Oil loses value ----> spy loses value) My chart merely shows that OIL is near a support line and that Dollar is near a resistance = Probability of Spy having a relief bounce. The Risk vs reward is still heavily favored to the bears.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
Short/medium term Bearish thesisSeptember 28th Resistance/support will intersect and we will see downwards movement into new territory. The risk vs reward for shorting is much greater than going long at the moment. Short term Bearish/neutral Medium term Bearish Long term Bullish I believe we are setting up another Jan 2018 OR OCT 2018. Red arrows indicating heavy resistance Red Arrows resistance Blue diagnal line - current downwards trend White line- Major resistance Red line - resistance Orange line - weaker resistance Green line - March - september bullish trend. Green line intersects with white line on a catalyst day (fed speaking). We are now in a trend reversal, but need to keep an eye on these levels.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
3
My General view of SPY In my philosophical view, humans tend to always need an "answer" for everything in life. Historically we created gods to explain the unexplainable. That's not to say that i am an atheist in my religious view, nor am i trying to make this a religious discussion, I'm purely commenting on human nature. We are a curious species and we learned to not take "no" or "i don't know" as an answer from a very early age of our ancestry. If you look around you, it feels we "must" have an answer for everything in life, including the unexplainable (consciousness). Scientific people call it "coincidence", religious people call it a "miracle from god". To advance in our life we need to see these two groups of people from a third persons perspective, and understand both sides. It doesn't always have to be black or white, right or wrong. It's okay "not to know", as long as you are the path to enlightenment through spiritual or scientific, that's all that matters. I am only a man, born into this world trying to make sense of something insensible for my time. So why is my philosophical view important in the way that I trade? I see many traders nowadays pointing to the news as an "answer" for their directional bias in the markets. Trump said this, trump said that, markets go up, markets go down. The media business sells you the answers, and you buy them because its encoded in our ancestral genes to buy them. To reach a new level of consciousness, you would need to understand the words. " I am only a man, and too stupid of a species to understand anything but." We are a mere spec in the timeline of "(life?)". My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical analysis standpoint (sometimes with the exception of federal news.) Before trying to understand the way that i trade, you would need to understand my philosophical standpoint, and to also assume that nowadays, there is a gap between the real economy and the stock market. The stock market ≠(does not equal) the economy. You would also need to understand the options market and that algorithms created by market makers are always trying to stay delta neutral hedging their positions. And finally the last thing you must understand is intermarket analysis to fully understand my trading view. So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinionated rational/irrational decision to sell or buy. Do I know the formula? No I don't, and that's okay. What i do know, is the results of the formula at work. Sometimes its easy to spot when live trading, sometimes it can only be spot with hindsight bias, sometimes the answer is never found, AND THATS O.K. For example, i don't see where or why "2+2" is happening, but i keep seeing "4" as the answer. So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinion based rational/irrational decision to sell or buy. TL;DR We are not trading based off psychology any longer, we are trading based off logic. (algorithms & formulas) My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical standpoint (with the exception of federal news.) AMEX:SPY Multiple resistances/support areas for the S&P. We have always respected the white resistance since the 2008 financial crisis. The solid green line in the middle is what i consider the "goldilocks" zone. A habitable zone in which "fair price" has been achieved in the context of the uptrend we are seeing since the 2008 financial crisis. In conclusion, to not make my first post too long i will write some pointers in how i trade. I trade Spx products vs volatility I trade Spx products vs forex I trade Spx products vs bonds I trade Spx products vs commodities I trade Spx products logically ( I heavily disagree with EWT methodology) I trade Spx products using intermarket relationships I use historical resistance/supports in all markets to gauge activity in what i'm trading. As time goes on i will post many charts of what i wrote above, and too make things less confusing i will explain as i go.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
4
SPY - SP500 ETF s/r analysisHello traders, Description of the analysis: SPY support zones ideal for timing long positions (gray). Trade what you understand, trade carefully and sparingly according to the business plan. About me: Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (over $4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades. Jacob
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jacob_Kovarik
2
SPY AnalysisPrice has been on a long bull run so its about time for a pullback. Price made a big move to the downside but is still in an overall uptrend. Although I know price is still in an uptrend I am looking to go short on SPY if it pulls up into my sell zone before reaching one of my buy zones. I am also not going to just buy SPY at those zones just because price comes into them. I will wait for price to show strong signs of a continuation in the uptrend. Hope this helps you in the coming weeks! Don't forget to like and follow!
AMEX:SPY
by DNiceChampion
SPY stock prediction by Supply-Demand strength analysis01-Jul Price trend forecast timing analysis based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength. Investing position: In Falling section of high risk & low profit S&D strength Trend: About to begin a rebounding trend as a downward trend gradually gives way to slowdown in falling and rises fluctuations Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand strength has changed to a strengthening buying flow when stock market opening. read more: www.pretiming.com D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: RED Candlestick %D+1 Range forecast: 0.7% (HIGH) ~ -0.5% (LOW), -0.3% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of rising: 1.0% (HIGH) ~ 0.1% (LOW), 0.8% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of falling: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.8% (LOW), -0.6% (CLOSE)
AMEX:SPY
by pretiming