Spyanalysis
SPX - Enjoy the rally while it last!For those who have been here since 2022 early 2023 when there was so much fear in the market and we called the market had bottomed. I think it was the right call, even though we had a lot of naysayers. Now I think we are nearing the end of this rally which I estimate will be sometime in February 2024. I have two outcomes the green line below which I highly favor and believe that is the path and the grey line which is definitely possible but unlike in my opinion due to election year. Also it looks like we are following the cup and handle. I have also explained in my other ideas why I think we are like in 1990 and 2012 (base on the fear). If the grey line happens, Biden loses the election guaranteed so I am certain the fed will hold the stock market at least until after the election.
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SPY Week-Ending April 19The gap zone from the Island Pattern earlier this year seems interesting because 510-505 are less thoroughly traded so far this year and will likely be the area we return to when this pullback is done. Bearish price action is all but confirmed, but can we expect an elevator down first thing on Monday?
$SPY overall bearish until sub 320I'm not a fundamental type of guy, I just look at what the chart give me, and as far as I see it from a Technical analyst perspective, this is nothing more but a simple ABC corrective wave from the super extended bull run we had previously. (Thus put the market in a bear market) We could either come back up to the 420 area to clear the shorts which would complete the B Wave, Giving us the opportunity for a easy short all the way to the .618 retracement level which would put is at sub 320 for the rest of the year. the other Scenario is we could reject the 400 area and come down to the 380 area and crab there before legging down again. Either way I am Micro bullish but overall bearish for the rest of this year. FOMC Tomorrow so hopefully we can start seeing some Acceleration in the charts.
Is this BEARISH divergence forming on the $SPY of any concern?Looking at the 1M on the AMEX:SPY , it's leading me to think if we close below last months low, we should be confirming regular bearish divergence, giving us a target of at least to the 21e . Please see chart for reference of current target.
fastlanewinners.com
ES / SPY In A Correction Phase After A Measured MoveThree weeks prior, the market completed a bullish leg measured move. This pattern is significant as markets often exhibit a tendency to move in pairs, a phenomenon observable across all time frames. This behavior is rooted in the psychological aspects of market dynamics, wherein the market tends to repeat actions twice. This concept is underscored by market geometry, which includes two-legged pullbacks, measured moves, second entries, among others.
The market recently reached 5256, a likely target for many traders, followed by the formation of an inside bar. This development has led to a three-week consolidation phase for ES as it assimilates the previous move before potentially initiating another.
The bullish outlook remains intact as long as the price holds above 5126 on the weekly timeframe. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds an additional layer of significance to these levels, as they will likely determine whether a higher timeframe pullback ensues or if the current trend continues.