Spyanalysis
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:SPY chart analysis/mapping.
Spy ETF strong rally throughout November - is it due for a pullback in December?
Trading scenarios:
Continuation rally #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (white) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = Golden Pocket / descending trend-line (white) / 200MA confluence zone.
Deeper pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (light blue) / 50& Fib / gap fill confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = multiple gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone.
SPY Fly or Die Looks like Q1 2024 is going to be a pivot point. Looking at the weekly tf, The price action curve has stayed consistent over the years. Im not a big fan of alot of indicators but we can see the bullish pressure building and bump and run pattern forming, Measured move from prior LL to Prior HH giving us a target of 700. Also 127 fib ext.
I would love to see the curve tested one more time but if there is a strong break to the top side Im going long on spy
please share your thoughts
SPY next moveDecember 8 Unemployment Rate
December 12 Inflation Rate
December 13 Interest Rate & Powell Speech
in these days market could start its correction
VIX is too low which means market could go higher, why not lower? volatility is too low, everything is good (data)
but consider every time vix go below (18-13 range) it start to bounce, this bounce moves vix 30-40 % higher, 10% for spy, one of my calculations for spy correction target comes from vix movement.
VIX option data P/C ratio for 15dec for both interest and volume is about 0.5
and puts positions closed for december, calls still open
10-15% correction for spy could lead it to 360 max
consider this data
*rate hikes will go down in 2024
*late 2024 US election
*REIT is not good compare to others
I think after this correction market will have ATH(2024), and after that FLASH CRASH
$SPY Weekly Price TargetsBased off Price Action, the next 2 weeks will determine if we will see new ATH or fill previous Order Blocks (OB).
Currently, we are in an Uptrend with the continuation from Oct. 10th ~$360 Demand. We had a clean break through the OB created on the week of Aug. 22nd. Which lead us to fill the Apr. 4th OB.
We could potentially see a continuation to ATH or a pullback to the $437 FVG with a reversal towards ATH.
If we fail to break through the current OB or the previous ATH we could see a sell off leading to the closing of previous OB's on, Mar. 13th ~$386 & Oct. 10th ~360.
S&P500: Key Support Level for SPY Bulls to DefendThe S&P 500 been gradually breaking downwards since peaking in July. AMEX:SPY has reached the bottom of this red parallel channel last week. This is a key support level that has been providing strong support, and I think SPY bulls need to defend this price level this week. The RSI is oversold so the conditions are good for a rebound here.
$SPY Market top playing outAs I've mentioned in my previous analysis, I believe we're at a market top (Despite Tom Lee calling for new highs).
There's nothing positive for markets looking forward, therefore I think markets will finally price in all of the raise hikes and the poor economy.
I think we may see one more high, however, if we do, I believe it'll result in a rug pull. I think the FOMC meeting tomorrow will largely be bullish for markets, but then after that, Thursday, Friday or into early next week, we'll see the market reverse.
I'm looking for the move to hit the targets laid out on the charts.
$412, $397 or $393 as the bottom. With hindsight, I think the move will mark the top of the market and we'll continue much lower. Bear market continuation targets shared here.
Let's see if it plays out.
SPY Short Prediction - 10/15/2023Unqualified prediction: SPY looks to be rolling over on the 1hr with multiple historical zones of support and resistance overlapping in a concentrated range (specified in-chart.) This in a TA sense would indicate a potential fight between buyers and sellers for control of price action, but macroeconomic fundamentals and geopolitical concerns, as well as ER volatility make for turbulent waters with this amateur analyst biased towards the downside.