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SPY Retracement Scenario Before Continued Sell OffHere is a scenario for a 50%-61.8% retracement for SPY, up above $282, before continuing it's sell off. Looking to the left, there was a very similar structure in late February into early March. You can see how the peaks are quite identical, and on the low following the last peak, there was a retracement between 50%-61.8%... and also to the area of the 100MA. Currently, that would represent a bounce up above 282 before the selling resumes. On the current chart, I drew 2 fib lines... The left one is just to show that the intraday bounce on Friday, March 22 came no where near the level that could be expected from the earlier chart, which would have been between 282.30 and 282.90. It instead topped out at 281.51. This was also well short of the 100MA. If that was THE retracement, then steep selling is likely to continue. If the low associated with the left fib lines is not "the low following the last peak", then we can count it as not in yet, and take the lowest low from the end of the day. The right fib lines are to show how high the retracement could be before the selling continues. Also, notice the little RSI divergence to end the day... Both scenarios are bearish, and would see new lows by this time next week. This is merely to point out the precedence of a possible nice bullish play before we get there....IF the bounce to 281.51 was not it. Travis JMJ - UIOGD
AMEX:SPY
by Procinctu
SPY - Here's the Daily Chart I MentionedOne can easily there's a triangle pattern forming on SPY, it's on the DIA too... but regardless, there's the 200 SMA holding up price and we're neatly tucked between the 20 and 50 SMAs. The daily and weekly stochastics are turning up so price moving back up into the 270 area wouldn't be surprising. It's just what does it do from there. If its a triangle pattern, it could very well be an abcde pattern which this would be like a "d" wave up, followed by an "e" wave down. If this is the case, then again that weekly 50 EMA and the daily 200 SMA will be clear indicators. Technical analysis doesn't really have to be overly complicated, the SMAs and EMAs are indicative of trends. Bounce off of them, trend continues, fail them and either a larger pullback or a trend change. Invest accordingly. I think the market is presently correctional (and its about damn time) and we'll make higher highs somewhere in 2018 but one candle and closes below significant moving averages can change all that. Watch that weekly 50 and daily 200, they are your friends.
AMEX:SPYLong
by VelvetHammersTrading
1
The Weekly 50 EMA on SPY is the Tell TaleOther than the messiness of 2015 and 2016 the 50 EMA on the weekly has been a clear indicator of market support. While people will say that we've been in a bull market for 8-9 years they often forget that protracted sideways move with significant breaches of the weekly MAs. Well we're bouncing off the 50 again or at least it seems but will it hold. I think its safe to say that if we get a weekly close below the 50, it would be wise to be in some cash so that one has money on hand to leg back in at major support levels. On the daily chart, the 200 is holding up price and we've bounced (obviously) off of that average as well. Closing below the weekly 50 and the daily 200 will likely indicate a larger pullback but the present pattern, and I'll post a daily too looks correctional. There's a large triangle pattern forming which obviously can break either way. However using the triangle pattern in conjunction with the moving averages lends significant weight. If we can break above 20 and 50 on a daily chart, say get above 271-272 and close up there, then market is likely to make another leg higher assuming it makes a new high. If not, and we fail the averages, get into some cash as simply wait.
AMEX:SPY
by VelvetHammersTrading
SPY Triangle vs Crash (Why you can't be bearish yet)I have read many posts about the bears predicting that late Jan's top on the SPY was a blow off top and that we are going lower. That may be right, but blow of tops can also create triangle consolidation formations for a wave higher. Remember that this market is being held by strong fundamentals and liquidity still and that a bubble in equities can go much higher than most would logically predict. And we are in full start of the earnings season, which will beat on guidance most likely. On the hourly charts we still see an inverse head and shoulders with the head of the pattern forming a higher low than the previous Feb low. Friday's action was at first bearish as we opened above the neckline of the Inverse H&S but then failed below it... up until the last 20 minutes when the bulls took the price right back up to the neckline again. Putting this in context that on daily $SPY you can see that we tested both the 20 and 50 SMA at the same time and that we closed high enough to not completely engulf the body of the previous candle, gives you context that we might breakout of it the next time we do test them again in hopes to get up to the top of the triangle. If we continue our move down from here though, it is likely that we crash as there isn't a lot more support down below until most of the stocks hit their 200SMAs but until then I'm bullish short term.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IdanKoren
2
Swing Trading strategy !! (A micro view on swing investing)Through out my time swing trading i have found that there are some desecrate tools and information i must look at in each equity before i make my final decision, certain criteria like Short interest , days to short , SQZMOM indicator along with a sweet chart that channels up. 1. it all starts at finviz where i search up stocks that fall under the lower priced Nasdaq equities, this is also the time i start to look for some nice setups on the chart. On the chart i mainly look for equities that are Channelling up. 2. i have filtered out the equities that don't have nice setups often charts that break the channel pattern, after this is done i start to look at the days to short on the Nasdaq short interest website. This is essential because if there was a big move down and a short share float of more than 20% it could mean that the stock is about to rebound 5-20%. it also makes the game much easier when you can now how many days those shorts have until they have to cover. 3. Once ive gone a little bit into the fundamentals and short interest i like to then look at that chart again, The indicator SQZMOM on trade view is one of my last type of analysis i do on the equity before i make a decision. As i have shown in the chart if there are 2 green momentum bars on the indicator it signals a buy entry , and once the green momentum bars start to fade it signals a Sell alert. 4. Usually i take profits at 5-10% as i have a stop loss at -5%., remember the key is to grow your account and scale it up so it might start slow. for example most people start of with a $1000 account so your first trades should be making $50 of profit as you scale it up Remember when you come into swing trading with a plan and prepared it becomes much easier to be successful in trading the equity. Its a marathon not a sprint
NYSE:ACCO
by GOVYTrader
2