Is SPY ETF set for down day tomorrow?My SPY analysis is pretty much aligned with the CBOE:SPX index
Here is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart are the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5).
Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 433 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 435.20. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 436.71, 435, and 3rd quartile at 432.5. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 436.48, median at 434.83, and the third quartile was near 432.60.
THIS WEEK
If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 424.19 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 433. A drop to 433 tomorrow would only be a 1.16% loss. A steeper loss in the main index could see the AMEX:SPY low in the 432.80 region. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go lower tomorrow. For now, I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 429 but still likely to occur midday Friday.
THEORY BUSTERS
A rise above 439.48 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 441.18 would place us back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
Spyetf
SPY is Doing ABC Medium Term CorrectionTechnical Analysis:
- As you can see in the chart, SPY is doing a short term wave 3 in red
- We expect that it will extend lower to finish correction around $300 ~$310 in the orange circle to complete the ABC correction of the wave II in red
- H1 & H4 Right Side is Turning Down
Technical Information:
- SPY is a ETF and it has a very strong correlation with SPX Indices
SPY etf S&P 500 Price per Earnings still high: 18.66 ! If you haven`t bought puts ahead of the FOMC meeting:
Then you should know that the P/E Ratio of the S&P 500 even after last Friday's sell-off is 18.66.
Now considering that the median value is 14.90, i would say that a fair price for the S&P would the the pre-pandemic level of $3380, and respectively, for its etf SPY, $338.
We might see a technical bounce here, due to the fact that the S&P is oversold and usually at this level is a buy opportunity, but short lived, to the next resistance of $374.
Two months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.