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Spyforcast

3 StrikesIn a downward channel, there's been 3 solid attempts to break pattern. A market reaction to a stronger Democratic result will test a low again, then there could be a Santa Claus rally as, perhaps, prices come down to offload inventory? Perhaps. Then at the beginning of the year,which have started poorly the last few years, could follow suit as well. This would give the markets the "cleansing" it needs to, in my opinion, psychologically push back up. Balance sheets and true growth will matter again, so that will be nice.
SP:SPX
by EvolveWM
SPY 52 WEEK LOW INCOMING?With the fed set to continue raising rates through 2022 I do not see a bottom in sight. Presented above I map out the two most possible scenarios in my opinion. The December fed meeting is the most important meeting coming post midterms. The November meeting this week will answer a few short term questions but the real question is do we begin slowing in December? If I had to answer the question above today the answer would be no! Based off the data we have received this month inflation is not slowing and unemployment is still low. The dollar has began to cool off, bonds & equities are getting some relief which provides more liquidity to the downside. The next week may become volatile or even a bit ranged bound as we wait on new data but I believe the end story is all the same. Spy breaking above the bear trend and 200ma invalidates my thesis. Fed rate slow also invalidates my thesis.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Ericc100k
3
SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.44%, falling from 4.48% of the last week. At the same time, its currently place on the 90th percentile based on the ATR calculations. With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of: In case of a Bullish movement : 2.54% In case of a Bearish movement : 2.7% With the current volatility point, we have a 24.3% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel: TOP : 3751 BOT : 3430 At the same time, there is currently a 38% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3730 And there is a 66% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3500 Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -68% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
SPY S&P 500 ETF game plan for this weekAfter last week`s rebound played perfectly: As well as the the Head and Shoulders Bearish Chart Pattern: For this week i have selected the 1h timeframe to understand better the possible movement. I believe that we will see a rebound once again at the beginning of this week after the speaks of Chicago FED Presidend and Vice Chair of FED on Monday and Cleveland FED President on Tuesday, but the market will close once again red on Friday, after the bank reports, where i think we will hear about revisions and recession incoming. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
5
$SPY Can we go higher?Hi Traders - It's been a while since my last post and I figured I share this one with you guys. In the chart, I lay out the two most likely scenarios on each side of the trade. Personally, I believe there will be upward pressure here, because of the sheer amount of upside. However , we will have to see the overnight price action and pre-market before making an accurate judgement on which way we will move. Sincerely, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading) **PLEASE NOTE: the indicators at the bottom are for analysis**
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
5
SPY S&P 500 September is historically the worst month for stocksTwo months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst. Economic context: Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted. OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day. August 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022. Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. Depending on how inflation is trending and how the jobs markets and overall economy is looking we expect a Fed Rate Decisions of 50bps or 75bps hike. The crypto market context is not good either. Ethereum network’s security and performance could be negatively impacted by the upcoming Merge. Taking into consideration the information above, my price target for the SPY ETF is $374. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
4
S&P today vs 1920's bubble The Dow Jones Industrial average was the most important index in the 1920's as the nation industrialized. Today the spotlight is more on the S&P. The similarities between both bubbles is striking, both visually and from a TA standpoint. Although we have seen more violent pullbacks due to excess leverage and world events, the paths are nearly identical. The S&P has respected the same fib levels as resistance and similarly timed (although more violent) pullbacks as in the 1920's bubble. Most people seem bearish and the economic environment is certainly not a tailwind right now but this chart comparison is striking. Currently we are seeing the more violent pull back from the inflation and rising rates but the S&P is going higher. The comparison priced in the 2008 recession, the COVID dump, and I believe it will prove itself accurate again by ripping higher into a final parabolic move. Although the gyrations are not identical, it is eerily similar. Our current pullback is deeper but we will see the SP near 5700 by the end of the year or sometime 1st quarter next year. I lean towards the end of the year because selling pressures for tax purposes will be strong (especially with a doubling of IRS agents). Tell me what you think.
SP:SPXLong
by ceesounds
1
SPDR S&P 500 ETFwe are channel trading/consolidation. and this will probably continue till the meetings coming up. my main thesis is based off a few things. the up coming Jackson Hole meeting followed by Fed Jpow Friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by Sept October. there is alot of factors influencing this, inflation, rate hikes, etc. 390 would be the area im looking for. i dont see us making a new 52wk low. Hedge funds. from that 4300 are net short on the spx and cash heavy. more then normal. and this is why i also think we have a santa claus rally. we get the pull back in sept. sept and oct are the worst performing months. this pull back will bring you into a wonderful area of support at 390 and inflation keeps coming in at good clips. hedge funds are gonna say crap. inflations coming down. fed slows rate hikes. they will have to cover those short positions. and they can not go into the end of the year that cash heavy and that can bring you back to that resistance level . when hedge funds are usually this one sided. it usually doesnt work. look at august 2020 when they were in this same position. they were wrong and got completely rolled over. anyway. this gives traders tremendous opportunity. On the longer term we have an inverse head and shoulders forming. the july 17 low being the head. even on the shorter time frime we have one and we are on the right shoulder right above the neck line around that 412/414 area. now i only point this out because its alittle interesting. some technical analysis . fun fact- since 1950 the spy has never rallied pass the 50% fib retrace off a recession low and made a NEW low. just fun fact. but the targted (oval- general area/zone) would be a long term buying opportunity if you missed the july 17th low. or if you arnt fully invested it could be a buyable pullback imo. just my thoughts hope you like or got something out of it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Jbridgez
12
$SPY bulls in charge? maybe for now..$SPY momentum has been strong for the past few weeks. after the market switched gears to the upside after the government lifted off the covid restrictions this summer, and ok earnings in some of the big tech stocks couple weeks ago. i believe after the restrictions got lifted off, it helped the economy to get back on its feet. but despite the covid restriction being lit off, it created massive supply chain issues, and inflation. this is due to massive back log of the supplies that didn't get sold in the past 2 years because of the covid. Also, small businesses try to make up for the loss of profits during the pandemic. here's my day trade price target for SPY on FRIDAY 08/15/22. ============================================================ For calls; buy above $429.17 and sell at 431.28 or above For puts, buy below 426.49 and sell at 424.17 or below ============================================================ Welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play ) I am going to explain where I think this stock might possibly go the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play. If you have any questions or suggestions on which stocks I should analyze, please leave a comment below. If you enjoyed this analysis, I would appreciate it if you smashed that LIKE or BOOST button and maybe consider following my channel.
AMEX:SPYLong
by CHRIS_B58