SPY S&P 500 ETF Options Ahead of the CPI ReportIf you haven`t shorted the Bearish Flag Chart Pattern:
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data for the month of November 2022 on December 13, 2022, at 8.30am ET.
The rate of inflation is the most important data that will impact the Fed’s coming rate hike decision.
Now looking at the SPY options chain Ahead of the CPI Report, i would buy the $387 strike price Puts with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$8.96 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the CPI Report, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Spyforcast
SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.64%, down from 2.82% last week according to VIX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 56th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.87% movement
Bearish: 2.55% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 24.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 4188
BOT: 3960
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 4110
26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 3942
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 53% bullish trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend
4H timeframe indicates 53.3% bullish trend
SPY Bearish Flag | Put Options After the Midterm Elections price target was reached:
Now the S&P 500 Etf SPY is ready for a breakdown from the Bearish Flag Chart Pattern highs.
In the light of recent unemployment data reports, i would buy the $387 Puts expiring 2023-1-20 for $4.89 Premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Bearish FlagIf you haven`t noticed, our Midterm Elections price target was reached:
Now besides the technical bearish flag chart pattern, if i look at the SPY S&P 500 ETF options chain, i would buy the $376 strike price Puts with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$7.56 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
3 StrikesIn a downward channel, there's been 3 solid attempts to break pattern. A market reaction to a stronger Democratic result will test a low again, then there could be a Santa Claus rally as, perhaps, prices come down to offload inventory? Perhaps.
Then at the beginning of the year,which have started poorly the last few years, could follow suit as well. This would give the markets the "cleansing" it needs to, in my opinion, psychologically push back up. Balance sheets and true growth will matter again, so that will be nice.
SPY 52 WEEK LOW INCOMING?With the fed set to continue raising rates through 2022 I do not see a bottom in sight. Presented above I map out the two most possible scenarios in my opinion. The December fed meeting is the most important meeting coming post midterms. The November meeting this week will answer a few short term questions but the real question is do we begin slowing in December?
If I had to answer the question above today the answer would be no! Based off the data we have received this month inflation is not slowing and unemployment is still low. The dollar has began to cool off, bonds & equities are getting some relief which provides more liquidity to the downside. The next week may become volatile or even a bit ranged bound as we wait on new data but I believe the end story is all the same.
Spy breaking above the bear trend and 200ma invalidates my thesis. Fed rate slow also invalidates my thesis.
I think I have cracked the code for the action on the VIX!This idea illustrates a repetitive pattern which occurs during recession/bear markets. First sign is the VIX keeps basing higher and higher then you get a well defined resistance line going back to the base line BEFORE the crash which coincides with the end of the bear market. Then you get multiple retracements on the VIX which are all shorting opportunities!!
I hope you benefit from this idea!
Peace
SPY - Expecting Local GrowthCorrectional movement failed to break the local support, we expect resumption of buying to resistance.
If you like the idea, mark it. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022
We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.44%, falling from 4.48% of the last week.
At the same time, its currently place on the 90th percentile based on the ATR calculations.
With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of:
In case of a Bullish movement : 2.54%
In case of a Bearish movement : 2.7%
With the current volatility point, we have a 24.3% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel:
TOP : 3751
BOT : 3430
At the same time, there is currently a 38% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3730
And there is a 66% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3500
Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -68% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)
SPY S&P 500 ETF game plan for this weekAfter last week`s rebound played perfectly:
As well as the the Head and Shoulders Bearish Chart Pattern:
For this week i have selected the 1h timeframe to understand better the possible movement.
I believe that we will see a rebound once again at the beginning of this week after the speaks of Chicago FED Presidend and Vice Chair of FED on Monday and Cleveland FED President on Tuesday, but the market will close once again red on Friday, after the bank reports, where i think we will hear about revisions and recession incoming.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$SPY Can we go higher?Hi Traders -
It's been a while since my last post and I figured I share this one with you guys. In the chart, I lay out the two most likely scenarios on each side of the trade. Personally, I believe there will be upward pressure here, because of the sheer amount of upside.
However , we will have to see the overnight price action and pre-market before making an accurate judgement on which way we will move.
Sincerely,
Mike (UPRIGHT Trading)
**PLEASE NOTE: the indicators at the bottom are for analysis**
S&P500 IndexLooking at the pattern and trendlines, it appears like SP500 might push up to 4100 levels creating a Fake breakout between 4070-4100 levels before pushing down again to 3693 level. If support at 3693 is retested then there is a high probability that the market can push down even below to 3200 levels followed by 2900 levels as highlighted in the chart. Again these patterns could occur well into 2023 around Mar-Apr 2023 timeframe.
SPY S&P 500 etf Head and Shoulders Chart PatternThe Head and Shoulders Bearish Chart Pattern on the SPY etf S&P 500 is more obvious on the 4h timeframe, that`s why i picked that and not the daily.
My Price Target for this week is $374, followed by a bounce from the support and oversold level that will be bought fast, a return to $385 and then a pullback to $362 where it will form a double bottom.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$SPY 1D Outlook$SPY 1D is displaying relative weakness after rejecting the 0.5 retracement level at 401.38. If bulls fail to reclaim that level and bears successfully close a daily candle below 389.87 (0.236 weekly retracement) then we would expect to see selling pressure increase and possibly sweep the lows again. Monitoring it closely along with movement in oil prices heading into September's FOMC meeting towards the end of the month.
SPY S&P 500 September is historically the worst month for stocksTwo months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst.
Economic context:
Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted.
OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day.
August 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022.
Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. Depending on how inflation is trending and how the jobs markets and overall economy is looking we expect a Fed Rate Decisions of 50bps or 75bps hike.
The crypto market context is not good either. Ethereum network’s security and performance could be negatively impacted by the upcoming Merge.
Taking into consideration the information above, my price target for the SPY ETF is $374.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
S&P today vs 1920's bubble The Dow Jones Industrial average was the most important index in the 1920's as the nation industrialized. Today the spotlight is more on the S&P. The similarities between both bubbles is striking, both visually and from a TA standpoint. Although we have seen more violent pullbacks due to excess leverage and world events, the paths are nearly identical. The S&P has respected the same fib levels as resistance and similarly timed (although more violent) pullbacks as in the 1920's bubble. Most people seem bearish and the economic environment is certainly not a tailwind right now but this chart comparison is striking. Currently we are seeing the more violent pull back from the inflation and rising rates but the S&P is going higher. The comparison priced in the 2008 recession, the COVID dump, and I believe it will prove itself accurate again by ripping higher into a final parabolic move. Although the gyrations are not identical, it is eerily similar. Our current pullback is deeper but we will see the SP near 5700 by the end of the year or sometime 1st quarter next year. I lean towards the end of the year because selling pressures for tax purposes will be strong (especially with a doubling of IRS agents).
Tell me what you think.