SPY Price Target for this monthI am targeting a lower low at the $358 support by the end of this month, due to the CPI report and the start of the Q2 earnings season with revisions.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Spyforcast
$SPYThe Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
Looking for a retest of 410.64 on $SPY$SPY 1W looks like it wants to re-test that huge 410.64 support level turned resistance. Would expect it to be tested into end of month/early July.a
SPY either outlier or on perfect course You can see there is a strong difference between the real cyclical bear market and the current correction. Also the primary bull market last 25 years last time from 75' till the 00'. We are now at around half cycle (13 years in). Last cycle SPX did 20x since cycle low the cycle before was around 13x (if data reliable), now we have just done 6x really underperforming. The 52 weeks MA has been the support of the bull market cycle as you can see in the chart. Hence I doubt the current correction will last for much more.
SPY trading made simpleInside bar is the western term for harami...which is a reversal pattern. The more inside towards the opening of the candle is the spinning candle the more significant and higher it is the probability of the reversal...however the suggestion is always to wait and buy/sell on the breakout of the high/low.
FOLLOW SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
SPY 2008 vs 2022 Comparsion2008 vs 2022 weekly chart for SPY
With us touching the critical 200EMA levels, if this plays out similar to 2008, then we should expect a relief rally going back to 50EMA (~430) and then we hit true bottom a year from now in Summer 2023.
Stay safe!!!
$SPY sitting right at the 200 ema, looking for relief bounce$SPY sitting right at the 200 ema, looking for relief bounce, getting quite over-extended to the downside here. Would expect relief bounce into tomorrow with a long weekend the markets will be closed Monday for Juneteenth...
SPYIt's bear market territory whenever we see more than 20% retracement from ALL-TIME HIGH. The first retracement from an all-time high is always 33% (that's almost 320 for SPY)
I have made a technical analysis on how to play the bear market. The two red lines I have outlined can help traders when to short and when to go long. I'm going to swing shares of SPY (long/short).
SPY Big Fed Rate Hike is Coming! If you haven`t noticed Jamie Dimon`s prediction:
Then you should know that The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a half of a percentage point for the second consecutive time on June 15.
More rate hikes are likely in the coming months because consumer prices rose 8.6% YoY through May.
Inflation is at 40 year high!
Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO:
"Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself."
Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine.
If oil reaches $140 - 150 this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Looking for 357.74 test on $SPY soonLooking for 357.74 test on $SPY minimally before we can expect a "bear market rally."
$SPY bearish reversal confirmed.$SPY rejected 4h 200 ema, 1W linear regression channel backtest, and tripple topped. I would excpect $SPY to create a new swing low over the next few trading sessions into 6/17 $3.2 trillion OPEX... Fun times ahead.
$SPYThe Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 10,2022
As CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM EST, tomorrow is a big day for traders and investors. Make sure not to trade on news or assumptions. Today we saw a massive sell-off at the end hour of the market trading session. There will be a bounce upward tomorrow for correction. The critical level of resistance, for now, is 405.18-405.71, and the main one is 407-408. I'm saying this because on multiple timeframes like 15m,30m,45,1hr, and 2hr, and RSI is sitting on 30, which means an oversold area. Don't get trapped in following the trend but wait for confirmation to short on the resistance area(to be on the safe side).
Moreover, looking at VIX, it got rejected at the resistance level of 26.25. If it breaks the resistance tomorrow, opening a short position might be a good idea. Another scenario is that it cools off in the area of 25.50 from their excellent idea to open a safe short position. This is just my opinion but looking at the sell-off volume was a sign of continuation of the sell-off.
MACRO BEARISH FORECAST (ELLIOT WAVE)A look at what could possibly lie ahead if macro economic conditions continue unfavorably and we ultimately head into a multi year recession/depression; using Elliot wave theory / an Elliot wave correction model.
$SPY rejecting 1D 55 ema and 4h 200emaAs the charts show, $SPY is rejecting 55ema on 1D and 4h 200ema on 4h. In addition to this, a lot of macro catalysts and headwinds are at play here with a quantitative tightening cycle beginning, the war between Ukraine and Russia, Monkeypox, Gun Violence, very high inflation, and the recession flags popping up everywhere in auto sales data for example. R/R favors the bears at this moment but it's still highly recommended to utilize upside hedges regardless of conviction due to the volatile and shaky price action we have been witnessing over the past few trading sessions especially.
SPY
SPY is trading sideways right now and broke uptrend as well. Broke below support which is $407, will lead to new lows. SPY might trade sideways till Thursday and significant action on Friday as its CPI day.
Be patient...The chart says it all. But maybe this time it's different? Nope it's just the same. Everything seems to be like trading BTC in 2017 but now whole markets move that way. WTF? The steepest roller coasters are always the ones you have to coach yourself into riding. Enjoy.
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 2,2022
Based on today's economic news:
ISM Manufacturing (Apr) 56.1 vs 54.5 Expected
JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 11.4M vs 11.35M Expected
The market was up the first 30 minutes of the session, and then after the news, it got rejected on resistance and then bounced back from the support of 407. Also, keep in mind that vix is on a support level of 25.50. If 25 breaks market will go up. If not, SPY will make new lows.
Two Scenario for tomorrow:
-Break below 407 can lead to 398-400
-Break above 413 to 416( I don't think so, but I can be wrong as well)
$SPY 1D If you zoom out to 1D on $SPY you'll see that price formed a doji aka. indecision candle and generally is an early sign of a potential reversal. Remain cautious!
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 1,2022
SPY REJECTED ON RESISTANCE TODAY.
We might see a pump back to 415.50 or a break of 412.
TWO SCENARIO:
- Break above 416 long till 430
- Break below 412 short till new lows.
Monitoring $SPY for a potential reversal at the 4h 200emaThe 4h 200 ema has acted as an important pivot point on $SPY and this is the area where the R/R presents itself to favor short positions over long positions after an extended bullish rally over the past few trading sessions. Watching it closely!
SPYGAMEPLAN FOR MAY 31,2022
Soy is trying to reach the 430 area level as futures showed strength yesterday. ES touched $4200 seems a great possibility, but we need to see what happens on pre-market as always. Market sentiment can change.
Overall, the main thing to consider is that VIX is at support, and if VIX breaks, that support area market will see a massive jump to 430 areas. If not, then rejection will create a new low as basis points will increase and interest rates. Also, AAPL is on the resistance level of 150 area, which can make a sell-off if it gets rejected and if not, we will see spy 430 with the market remaining green.
$SPY Plan - Buy Puts and Be PatientThat's the plan for now. This is what I have mapped out for myself. Going to wait until it hits $430 (resistance) and buy puts with a strike price of $350 and expiration of June 20-Jun 25th and wait. Unless it really buckles and moves in another direction willing to wait and see how this plays out. Not financial advice, simply my journal.
