The bottom is NOT in on SPYSPY appears to be in an ending diagonal, like many other stocks, including AMD. I expect this to resolve with a double-bottom or a slightly lower low by February 18. After that, SPY will be set to set new ATHs.
Spyforcast
SPY correction is overThe FUD induced sell off has come to a finish. The SPY showed that the 300 MA is a respected level of support by bouncing off of it Monday. This was followed by 3 inside bars. Multiple inside bars indicate consolidation, a close above that range in a downtrend indicates a trend reversal. A break below that range in downtrend would indicate continuation. The SPY had a strong day rally to close out the day that emphatically showed the downtrend is over. I expect a gap up over the 200 MA Monday morning and a push back to $450. QQQ has a similar setup although less bullish.
SPY forecastthese days the stock market is being really uncertain. After CPI and PPI news market was being roller coaster but today's SPY daily candle caught my eyes. Based on my TA market SPY, QQQ will be green. Let's watch how accurate will be my chart analysis.
$SPY Pull back - Bearish Winter?Out look on $SPY. Could this be the beginning of a Bearish Winter?
Not financial advice!
SPY AnalysisThe Middle Gann line is of interest in this case
I propose an ascending broadening wedge to form above the middle Gann line
This is shown by the bars pattern placed
The 50MA is an area of support
The above idea can be applied to this ticker
It seems far fetched but when COVID is compared to other drops in the market, COVID outweighs them all, yet we receive the smallest bear move
Troubling
SPY Bullish CaseWe all know what they do best - print like there is no tomorrow.
If 430 level hold and is bought, we will get out rally. Every guru and their subs are long to their teeth. There is cash on the sidelines. If that cash sees this as a double bottom buy the dip opportunity - to the moon we go.
If this dip is not bought, look out below.
2hr shows a death cross (when 50MA crosses 200MA), 3hr is approaching a cross. 4 hr looks like a double bottom. Daily we are sitting pretty on 50MA. Short term time frames dont matter as much as long term timeframes. I am still eyeing 410-420 level but will change my mind if I see aggressive buying action today.
At the end of the day, you are the one clicking buttons and making decisions for yourself. Today will not matter so stop trading and pick long term strategies, use intraday activity to help your conviction.
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave AnalysisCombining Fib Extension to project the probable targets for 5th Wave top (if not reached already).
Thanks!
S&P futures getting closer to upside resistance level. Upside target is still 4235 as long as 4113 holds. If 4163 fails, next bullish bounce can be seen from 4146 or 4135. Close below 4113 may indicate short term trend change unless we see a quick crash and bounce around 4050. On upside, 4188 is immediate resistance, once overcome can move towards 4235-4240.
SPY IMPORTANT LEVELSThe whole week spy has been pretty choppy but managed to stay above the critical 416.32 support. If bulls manage to keep it above that level, we may get to see SPY fill that gap to the upside.
The critical level SPY needs to pass is 420. If it doesn't I suspect we will see this choppy market continue and spy will likely trade between 416.32 and 420 until it breaks to the upside or downside.
We saw good earnings by companies only to sell off (AMD, AAPL, AMZN for example). I think we will likely see more selling on good earnings and remain choppy until earnings season is over.
Just some quick thoughts.
SPY dip incomingShowed to be overbought, broke out of resistance with no overbearing candles and only baby candles, I'm expecting a drop to around the 78.60% Fibonacci level
2/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 20202/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 2020 through the middle of 2021.
1. The gap down and down week on higher volume is telling of a coming consolidation/correction.
2. The usual 4th wave pullback formed a triangle and its measured target hit almost exactly.
3. 5th wave of primary looks to be complete.
At a key area here. the 2020 up trend line will be tested here. The degree of the line and length of it tells that it may not hold much longer. An ABC correction would seem to be applicable here testing 358 then eventually 339 and maybe 330 to fill the Nov. 2020 multiple gaps.
SPY to 430 by EOY 2021We are breaking the long-term ascending wedge:
- We're at resistance that's been in place since May 2019
- We're barely holding support since COVID low (this is 4th touch)
-> I expect we will continue to break down out of this ascending wedge. It may be tomorrow, it may be sometime in March, but it'll happen
-> Frankly, we need some consolidation with all (pick your favorite) indicator(s) signaling overbought conditions lately
New Pattern:
- The lows since June 2020 (roughly when we began understanding COVID and when the market became 'stable' in the new normal) create a new line of support (4x touches so far)
- This will be the new support line to watch and indicates we could go as low as ~355 (7% drop from today's 382 close) on SPY if we have a continued sharp drop (aren't all drops sharp?!)
- If we hold this pattern, we'll end the year with SPY between 415 and 445 (8% to 16% upside from where it is today)
Macroeconomics & Fundamentals:
- The FED will continue to support the markets
- Big names are ready to come back and will do so with higher margins
- The 'laggards' during the last 12 month's tech boom are finding their time (financials, oil, airlines/hotels, and even commodities)
- Inflation and rates increases are actually a good thing
- There is still a ton of cash on the sidelines waiting to be put to work: Wall Street wants to continue the ride, and Retail traders are clearly conditioned to buying the dip (looking at you GME)
SPY Short (UVXY: a crash or just a pullback? )If you look at the chart i posted earlier. Well here's your breakout :(
I took a lotto 6/18 50c @ 1.00 and sold for @ 3.50 just now. Lets see where the market goes from here. Be patient and ride the trend!
ES Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/15/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:ESH2021
- High - 3797.75
- Low - 3792.00
Evening Stats
- Gap: = +0.08%
- Session Open ATR: 48.99
- Volume: 104K
- Open Int: 2.5M
- Trend Grade: Bullish
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range)
- Long: 4020
- Short: 3620
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
I've never been anything but a bull.. but i think time is upThis is my first time charting UVXY, not saying i'm freaking out but i'll look at this chart every single day now bc its scary..
Copy the chart and look at smaller timeframes
BIG CRASH COMING!!! $3900 THEN BOOMSmall companies are going to fail due to this pandemic sweeping out the rug and causing a crash of biblical proportions... Looking to get short soon investers BE VERY CAREFUL!!!
Rocky Roads Ahead for SPXFor every one that wants a quick analysis. Basically, SPX is going to be bouncing in this 3400-3205 range for a little while. I believe that we are entering into a consolidation period before a big move. To early to tell which way it is going to go.
For everyone that wants a more detailed analysis here it is. SPX broke through its major support line, the grey line on the graph, which then made the pink line the new support. However, it broke through that new support which created a nice price channel, represented in purple, which was somewhat quickly broken through. The break through was very bullish. As seen it was a big gap up and closed very green. However, since then it has been fighting the new support, now resistance, and the 50 MA. On top of that we also have a strong resistance area at 3400. Now today we tested getting over that pink line resistance, the 50 MA, and almost tested 3400 but it failed. This in my opinion is not a great sign. I'd put my money on a pretty bearish day tomorrow. We are going to stay in this new horizontal price channel, represented by green, for possibly up to a few weeks if there is no clean break out soon. I'd expect it to be very consolidated unless some miraculous news comes out. If you are trading keeps those stop losses tight.
Happy trading
Going Long SPYPrice is at the major HL on the daily and as long as price doesnt break it we are still in an overall uptrend and this is your best buying opportunity. if price does break tho, then you can expect it to about $314 next
9/23 UPDATED BEAR THESIS $316-317 next stopKey points
The DXY may bounce on resistance as shown
Oil may bounce on support as shown
Bonds remain unchanged as shown
Need to gauge Asia's reaction from our sell off today for confirmation on tomorrows trade
For those that don't understand intermarket relationships. From left to right and can start at any point.
Currency ------> commodities -----------> bonds -----------> Equity -------> currency --------> commodities ---------> bonds -----------> equity.
Huge markets reacting to one another, all interconnected, all correlated globally.
Given the circumstances, Spy is sitting in no-mans land right now with a straight shot to 316-317, but given that the DXY and OIL is looking to bounce off support/resistance means its bullish for SPY(meaning a relief bounce is probable, but will only be able to tell at tomorrows open, we need to see how asian markets will react to our sell off today)
The Dollar had a textbook breakout to the upside. When the Dollar rises, equity falls.(not all the time). When Oil loses value ----> spy loses value)
My chart merely shows that OIL is near a support line and that Dollar is near a resistance = Probability of Spy having a relief bounce.
The Risk vs reward is still heavily favored to the bears.
Long SPY this weekbased on how this week is playing out I still remain cautiously bullish. Once close & break above 3360 may look longer to 3500 area
