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SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 12/19Next Support Level Being Tested The key support level identified in our trading plans published on Wed., 12/07 - and, reiterated on Thu., 12/15 - at 3900-3910 has been decisively broken down, and the index is now testing the next key support level around the 3825-3835 range. Our models are indicating a range-bound trading while the index is trading within the broader 3810-3830 range on a daily close basis. If you are short, you might want to take profits on a break out of this range. If you are itching to go long, you might want to wait until the range is broken out of to the upside. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models went short on Thursday, 12/15, on a break below 3895 (opened at 3893.51) with a 40-point trailing stop and a break-even hard stop in effect. Models are indicating instituting a hard stop at 3843 for today. If stopped out, models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 12/19: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3825, 3838, 3844, or 3852 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3840, 3833 or 3820 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3863, and short exits on a break above 3813. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please see for yourself how our published trading plans have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap TradingView Tags: spx500 spx spy es1! spx500usd spx500long spx500short es1 esmini
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets. Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼‍♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly". Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for SPY ES1! SPX, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $390 SPY / $3,900 ES1! SPX, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
spy liquidity grab attempt? smart money concept.We are currently at a pivot point where we could easily fall or skyrocket. In this chart I have labeled supply/demand zones as well as trends and support/resistance. Where I have text and a circle resembles a change of character and a liquidity grab attempt outside the bullish wedge pattern. It is likely we may see a move up as a attempt to move closer to 400 but if not we will fall below 390. We skyrocketed past this point with the help of the FED last time, will the FED come through and save spy once again?
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES - Updated 121022 Given that we are headed into the release of the November Consumer Price Index this upcoming (Tuesday, December 13th ) and also the December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, December 14th) , are markets set up for another short opportunity into the end of January (Q1)? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below!
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
Bears Messed Up!Bears gotta keep their mouths shut. Wayyyyy too many people trying to short right now. Typically these spikes are only seen after a decent downturn (long than 2 days lol), but that just shows how excited everyone is to short. Spikes like this almost always lead to reversals whether it makes sense or not. I would keep a buy the dip mentality until seasonality starts working against the market. If you are not buying, I would definitely be careful shorting!! Safe trading
INDEX:CPCSLong
by mperri329
SPY Analysis (December)This is an analysis of the S&P 500 for December 2022. Right now, the market is producing some unusual charts. Volatility Volatility is one such unusual chart. As most traders know, the VIX is a volatility index derived from S&P 500 options for the 30 days following the measurement date. Volatility measures the frequency and magnitude of price movements over time. On Black Friday, the VIX closed the week at the lowest RSI in nearly 10 years. The chart above shows the weekly RSI for the VIX closing at 40.86 on Friday, November 25th -- the lowest weekly closing RSI value since early 2013. What's even more unusual is that this occurred only one trading day after the VIX closed with the lowest daily RSI value in nearly 18 years. The chart above shows that the daily RSI for the VIX reached the lowest value in nearly 18 years on Wednesday, November 23rd. While these unusually low oscillator levels for the VIX are not necessarily predictive of future price action it is interesting that the VIX, which is often portrayed as the fear index, is extended so low and yet price action remains so weak. One would think that with fear theoretically evaporating, as evidenced by a falling VIX, price would be rebounding more forcefully. There still has not yet been complete VIX term structure backwardation. VIX term structure backwardation occurs when the market prices in decreasing volatility in the future. The VIX term structure usually goes into complete backwardation near economic cycle bottoms, as this structure reflects the type of capitulation that major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. The chart above shows the VIX term structure. Currently the market is pricing in higher volatility in 2023. This chart may suggest that a major market bottom has not yet occurred since the market continues to price in higher volatility in the future. Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert (or regress) to its mean for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us extrapolate the strength of the current trend. These channels can also give us insight into trend reversals. Since the start of 2022, the daily regression channel has been down sloping. The chart above shows a regression channel applied to the daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX). The red line is the mean or average price. The lower blue line is 2 standard deviations below the mean and the upper blue line is 2 standard deviations above the mean. To use this indicator search for the script "Linear Regression (Log Scale)" by Forza. The S&P 500 recently reached the upper channel line, or 2 standard deviations above the mean. The chart above provides a closer look at the regression channel. The indicator on the bottom is the Stochastic RSI indicator which gives us an idea of how overextended price is currently trading. Price appears to have been resisted by the upper channel line. At the same time, the Stochastic RSI oscillator appears to show that price is becoming overextended to the upside. This could mean that price may retreat downward on the daily chart. Ichimoku Cloud The 2-day chart of SPX below shows that since the start of the bear market no candle has been able to close above the Ichimoku Cloud. The chart above uses the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. This is one of the best indicators for detecting trend reversals. When a candle breaks above the cloud from below, it is often considered a bullish trend reversal on the timeframe analyzed. Similarly, when a candle breaks below the cloud from above, it is often considered a bearish trend reversal on the timeframe analyzed. The shaded area that constitutes the cloud acts as support when price enters from above and resistance when price enters from below. A candle close above or below the cloud on strong volume is considered "piercing" the cloud. We can also see that price is currently at a narrow portion of the cloud. This could provide an opportunity for SPX to pierce through the cloud on the 2-day timeframe. Weekly Chart In the weekly chart below, we can see that the EMA ribbon remains completely inverted. The EMA ribbon is a collection of exponential moving averages that act as resistance when price reaches it from below and support when price reaches it from above. The last time the EMA ribbon completely inverted like this was during the Great Recession. As shown below, the weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) looks even weaker than SPX. The EMA ribbon has not only completely inverted, but it has widened, making it more difficult for price to pierce the ribbon to the upside. In general, price has a more difficult time piercing the EMA ribbon when it is wide than when it is narrow. This is often why price consolidates before it breaks out. Consolidation tightens the EMA ribbon. Although anything can happen, it remains very possible that QQQ can capitulate all the way down to its pre-pandemic high as shown below. This could mean that as a ratio to the money supply, the Nasdaq 100 goes all the way back to its March 2020 bottom, thereby wiping out all the wealth that investing in tech stocks created since the pandemic began. To see why the money supply can be used in this way, you can check out my post here: Higher Timeframes When analyzed on the higher timeframes, the S&P 500's current price action looks analogous to the Early 2000s Recession, as shown below. Following the Early 2000s recession, it took over 12 years for the stock market to sustain new all-time highs. Although anything is possible, unfortunately, the current situation is looking similar. Additional Charts Below is an assortment of interesting anecdotal charts that give insight into the current market. The chart below shows the total securities sold by the Federal Reserve in the temporary open market (overnight reverse repurchase agreements). The chart shows a break has occurred below the trendline that has been in place much of the year. This could mean that the Federal Reserve has pivoted behind the scenes. The below chart is merely the inverted version of the previous chart. It shows that the Fed has recently been providing increasing amounts of cash to the U.S. banking system. Yet, the Fed is still hiking interest rates. The Fed also continues to roll assets off its balance sheet. So why might the Fed be continuing to hike rates and roll assets off its balance sheet, while also adding cash to the banking system? These actions seem to counter the effect of each other. In effect, now that inflation appears to be cooling down somewhat, the Federal Reserve is ensuring that there are no liquidity issues within the banking system. While this is good for the banking system, it’s not immediately helpful outside of the banking system. Thus, while U.S. banks are faring quite well right now, liquidity crises are growing in the speculative fringes of the market, especially in the cryptocurrency space. The liquidity crisis is likely to get worse before it gets better because the Fed continues to hike rates, which has a lagging effect on liquidity. The above chart shows that in the past 12 months over 70% of the capital in cryptocurrency has evaporated. The Fed’s tightening strategy has led to the worst monetary conditions for cryptocurrency in its short history. The liquidity crisis in the cryptocurrency space is likely the tip of iceberg of what’s to come as central banks around the world end their decades-long monetary easing experiment. Even though the central bank is looking to slow down its most drastic hiking cycle ever, there’s little sign that commodity prices are cooling down sufficiently enough to allow for a pivot to easier monetary conditions. In chart above, we see that the weekly EMA ribbon is still holding as support for commodity prices. This suggests that the bull market for commodities continues. Over the past year, commodities have increased in price despite tighter monetary conditions. This must mean that the scarcity of commodities, and/or the demand for them, must be greater than the scarcity and/or demand for U.S. dollars. As shown below, the monthly Stochastic RSI has fully oscillated down and is ready to begin pushing momentum back to the upside for commodities. One might wonder whether commodity prices are forming a bull pennant structure. Imagine how bad it will be if the Fed stops hiking rates and commodity prices continue to inflate. What would happen if the unemployment rate rose to 6%-8% while the inflation rate remained around 6%-8%? This stagflationary outcome is actually quite possible. The Fed’s tightening has already led to the most extreme decline in the money supply on record. This could have major consequences for corporate earnings because corporations can only earn some subset of a rapidly shrinking supply of money. The decline in the U.S. money supply is likely to cause major liquidity issues that will reverberate from the speculative fringes of the market inward to all segments of the economy forcing the Fed to intervene to put out fires. Already, we've seen drops in the price of growth and IPO stocks that are so substantial that they are rarely seen outside of the context of recessions and financial crises. The chart above shows how drastic the price collapse has been for the Renaissance IPO ETF. Recent IPOs depend heavily on borrowing. The cost of borrowing has skyrocketed in 2022, jeopardizing the existence of many companies that completely rely on continued borrowing. Since the U.S. dollar is the world's main reserve currency, and therefore the most demanded currency, these liquidity issues could be amplified outside of the United States, especially in countries where central banks maintain a much looser monetary policy than the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed is effectively exporting inflation to other economies by hiking interest rates more than the central banks of those economies, the Fed's rate hikes are obviously not without harm to the U.S. economy. Among other things, these hikes will cause unemployment in the U.S. to rise. Initial unemployment claims have been moving in lockstep with the inverted chart of the assets on the Fed’s balance sheet. If we apply a smoothened 20-week moving average, the charts look virtually the same. The reason for the connection between assets on the Fed’s balance sheet and the unemployment rate is simply that these assets influence the money supply. By letting assets roll off, the Fed is engineering tighter monetary conditions which in turn causes a scarcity of money. When money becomes scarcer, companies look to cut costs and the main way to cut costs is to freeze hiring, cut pay increases, cut employee benefits, and ultimately, lay off employees. Hence, the inverted chart of the Fed’s balance sheet can be considered somewhat of a leading indicator for the unemployment rate. Recently, the yields on the 10-year U.S. treasury bond peaked right at the top of the EMA ribbon on the yearly chart. However, the momentum on the yearly chart is upward, suggesting yet even higher yields in the years to come. The below chart shows that the 30-year treasury yield has inverted relative to the 3-month treasury yield. This type of yield curve inversion usually occurs in the quarter(s) leading up to a recession. An inverted yield curve reflects the destruction of credit and the money supply. When the yield curve is inverted, banks can no longer profitably borrow at short term rates and lend at long term rates. Bank lending creates the most amount of money. Since the stock market generally tracks the money supply, as the money supply declines, generally so too does the stock market. The below chart is very interesting. It provides evidence that the 40-year monetary easing experiment may have ended. The chart shows the U.S. money supply as a ratio to the yields on 10-year US treasury bonds. By creating such a ratio, we elucidate the Fed's the monetary interventions over the past 40 years. As the Fed cut rates, the money supply rose proportionally resulting in this ratio chart moving horizontally. Beginning in the 1980s the Federal Reserve began to steadily cut rates on government bonds over time as a means to increase the money supply. Then in the 2000s, in order to cut the rates on bonds even more the Federal Reserve began to buy large amounts of bonds. This allowed the central bank to force the yields on bonds artificially below what the market would normally demand. By 2020, this monetary action became so extreme that both real and, in some cases, nominal yields reached negative territory. In a normal set of circumstances, negative yields on bonds would never occur as it essentially reflects a guaranteed loss of money for the investor. Monetary easing, therefore, created a perversion whereby the yields on government bonds no longer accurately reflected the market’s belief in the credit worthiness of the government. The main reason why governments were able to get away with this market perversion was because commodity prices were being forced lower and lower by increasing globalization, increasing productivity/efficiency, and efforts by China to artificially drive down commodity prices to force out competition and gain control of supply chains. So long as commodity prices were falling, extremely loose monetary conditions did not result in high inflation. Since the money supply moved horizontally relative to the yields on bonds over this period, we can extrapolate that the decline of these yields is how the central bank was able to increase the money supply. To increase the money supply exponentially without a corresponding decline in interest rates, the central bank would have needed the GDP to grow at a corresponding exponential rate. While exponential GDP growth was feasible in the past, today GDP growth continues to slow globally as populations and resource extraction reach their carrying capacity. Therefore, the problem that central banks currently face is largely insurmountable. Central banks can no longer increase their money supply exponentially while GDP growth is slowing, and while interest rates cannot be cut further without causing high inflation. Central banks are trapped because they have run out of tools to artificially prop up the value of risk assets. They are now forced to let the air out of the biggest asset bubble in history. Fortunately, so far, the deflation in asset prices has not been particularly chaotic, but that could change as unemployment rises and geopolitical tensions mount. Nonetheless, it is during market turmoil that continuing to accumulate diversified, no-fee or low-fee investments in tax-sheltered retirement accounts can prove most lucrative in the long term. History has shown that staying invested in the stock market is the best means of wealth preservation over the long term. Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you.
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
42
overall bullish til EOY Weekly Prediction 12/5-12/9 * Overall momentum has been bullish since week of Oct 17 as price has been steadily climbing towards monthly EQ lvl @414 * Drawing a fib starting at the last bullish OB of this IPS w/ 50 line @ the consolidation can lead me to predict that this price leg could end up rallying til about 422-424 * A rally to 422 would close the 1st FVG above weekly EQ * This week, breaking the old high of 411.75 and finding support there is imperative for price to go into FVG above EQ at 420-422 * Bullish scenario- A rally to EQ in the beginning of the week is highly possible (+1.75%) to knock out early shorts resting above old high in BSL. (EQ resting inside BSL range from 411-420). After that could see price reverse into FVG below EQ to consolidate or continue to go into weekly rally into FVG above * Another scenario is that this week is a consolidation midweek rally so that market can gather orders & clear liquidity on both sides of the market before going higher * Bearish scenario- Price drops to test last bullish OB at 399 at some point during the week which should hold but if not price can continue down to 390.4 (last untested high) * No major weekly market moving headlines this week All ICT concepts used! Feedback greatly appreciated! * Red dashed line- BSL * Solid red line- Hard resistance * Red box- Buy side FVG * Green dashed line- SSL * Solid green line- Hard support * Green box- Sell side FVG * Purple dashed line- IRL * Purple solid line- BMS * Purple box- Range FVG * Orange dashed line- Liquidity range (ERL) * Solid orange line- TP target * Vertical orange line- Quarter change * Orange box- Volume Imbalance * Teal dashed line- EQ of IPS
AMEX:SPYLong
by kacemoney
ES short ? Tomorrow is a key and pivotal moment for ES and the rest of the market…a good reaction to NFP tomorrow morning and we change trend moving forward, but a bad reaction and this likely starts the next leg lower. You can take a speculative short w small size here and target 4000 with a stop loss above 4110. Preferably i prefer to wait until the reaction and react accordingly. If we break the trend we likely head to 4300 area before years end. If we break 4000 then 3950 is on the table minimum, and we can possibly test lows in the next few months. I am inclined to lean bullish based on Dow already breaking its TL and making a higher high, plus high yield bonds breaking its trend as well as yields and DXY as well…which has marked major lows in the past
CME_MINI:ES1!
by rsaylor55
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 11/30: Post-Powell SpeechDue to the event risk of Powell's speech at 1:30pm EST, our Aggressive Intraday models do not indicate any trading plans for today. Our Positional Trading Models ended yesterday with an open long that was carried into the Powell's speech. Models indicate carrying the long into the overnight session, with the 36-point trailing stop intact. Also, models indicate an exit on a break below 3996. For the details of the trading plans published yesterday, see below: var tradingview_embed_options = {}; tradingview_embed_options.width = '400'; tradingview_embed_options.height = '250'; tradingview_embed_options.chart = 'sYrmWuMu'; new TradingView.chart(tradingview_embed_options); SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 11/29 by TradersAITradingPlans on TradingView.com
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPY IS BREAKING OUT...Again as this is a 4th-wave we will see plenty of swings.. that is why I did not trade until I saw a "bottom was in" for this wave. Looking at the pre-market we are sitting above $397 and showing strength towards our first level of $411. Some may be wandering what those red lines are for... those are my support lines I draw on a bigger time frame along with fib levels to help with confirmation. I don't just rely on Elliott Waves and Fibs... I feel support and resistance are key to know also.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UnknownUnicorn910751