SPY analysisSPY is now a support zone. but the market is still bearish now.so, it is time to find a short mention level.
Spylong
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Target After The Midterm ElectionsThe Price Target for the Midterm Elections was perfectly reached, as you can see from the preview chart:
I think there is still some juice left for this week, full of enthusiasm and promises of a soft landing from politicians.
Then, by the end if the year, we will see Jamie Dimon`s "economic hurricane coming our way!"
My price target for SPY S&P 500 ETF is the pre-pandemic level of $338.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
"Spy will be bullish this week"AMEX:SPY
The short interest is increased to 159 M this month and we have a nice dip to buy to break 378
$DWAC BullishDWAC is set to rip next week. Noticed interesting volume that tells me someone has been buying heavy, twitter drama, red wave talks incoming, elections, and price held over the IPO price. Pretty stellar set up. Not going to chase but if I see a pullback I thinks its going to pay big time.
SPX/SPY Bullish Abandoned BabySPY Premarket is up 1.49% at $376, setting up what looks to be a near perfect bullish abandoned baby candlestick pattern - and if so, should mean the SPX/SPY is bullish over the next several trading days
SPY Analysis - Long until December Santa Rally
AMEX:SPY surpassing 385 resistance will provide support along with 50/200 SMA crossing. It's consolidating against the next 391 resistance, triple bouncing the support trend line. If it can sustain 385 support this week, I'm staying long until December Santa rally.
Volume gap on ESKeeping this one short and simple there is a nice volume gap above and we are at a decent support level. High volume green candles the past couple of weeks. With FOMC wouldn't be surprised to see a high volume green doji into a blast off near the top of the trendline. Could even see it breaking out of the trendline a bit getting people saying the bear market is officially over then slam. This is a mere guess I would not bank on this at all never financial advice. But interested to know you all's thoughts and feelings on what is coming next.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Bullish Ahead of Midterm ElectionsWasn`t it strange to see META losing 25% and AMZN 20% in one week, yet the SPX S&P 500 still being bullish?! :)
I told you in the previews chart, because of the Midterm Elections:
In every country is the same, politicians in power try to keep the markets optimistic ahead of elections to get more votes, because the economy is doing great thanks to them.
I wouldn`t be surprised to see the SPY S&P 500 ETF touch the psychological price of $400 days before the vote, while televisions talk about a potential reversal.
So we still have 8 days of unexpected bullish market while the earnings of the companies reporting are lower.
And don`t get frustrated to see that this was another bear market rally and the SPY will touch the $338 Pre-Lockdown level before Christmas.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SPY Analysis (Mid-to-Late October)Below is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of mid-to-late October 2022.
Weekly Expected Move
There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range.
High price: 375.64
Low price: 349.95
There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range.
High price: 388.48
Low price: 337.10
For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price within the current week. It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the market opens for the current week. For more information on how to calculate these values, please see the link at the bottom of this post.
Volatility & Seasonality
From a seasonality perspective, October usually opens relatively strong and can continue to be strong until about the middle of the month, then prices typically decline toward the end of the month. See the chart below.
There may be increased volatility if the CPI report that comes out before the market opens on Thursday, October 13th surprises again to the upside. My inflation predictors show that inflation moderated in September (year-over-year) and that the inflation figure will be less than the August figure.
However, there are early signs that inflation (particularly commodity price inflation) may not decline at the level needed for central banks to pivot away from tightening for some time to come. Until commodity prices stop accelerating higher, there cannot reasonably be a Fed Pivot. If the Fed were to pivot while commodities price inflation was accelerating it could lead to a hyperinflationary outcome.
The recent volatility spike put the VIX term structure into partial backwardation. VIX term structure backwardation simply means that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. The VIX term structure usually goes into complete backwardation at major stock market bottoms, as this structure reflects the type of capitulation that all major stock market bottoms typically exhibit.
In late September, the VIX broke the downward-sloping trendline. It's quite possible that there will be a capitulation event in mid- or late-October that causes the VIX to rise back above this downward-sloping trendline and which causes the VIX term structure to go into complete backwardation.
If such a capitulation event occurs then it will likely mark the bottom for 2022.
Fibonacci Levels
Price continues to cluster around the 3rd Fibonacci spiral that I discussed in my prior posts (see links to related ideas below).
It is my prediction that a capitulation event will form a lower wick below this line on the yearly candle but that prices will tend to revert back around this level by the year's end such that the yearly candle appears to sit on this line. See below for an illustration.
If there is a major capitulation event whereby volatility breaks out and prices break down, I would expect major buyers to come in around the 0.5 level (shown below). The 0.618 level is another support level to watch.
Regression Channel
Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back (or regress) to its mean for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals.
Since mid-August, the regression channel on the 1-hour chart has been governing price action (as inferred by such a high Pearson score). Please see below.
You can see below that on Friday (October 7th), the price bounced off the mean (red line).
Unless we get a highly favorable CPI report this week, I would expect that this channel could continue to govern price action all the way until the start of November.
Here's a general sense of what that could look like. Please see below.
Weekly Chart
In my last SPY Analysis, I noted that my indicators on the weekly chart were suggesting that we could drop back below 388. That definitely happened in the midst of the end-of-September volatility.
This time I am seeing something interesting on the 2-week chart...
I noticed that the Madrid Ribbon has turned completely red twice.
This is very rare in S&P 500 history. To put into perspective how rare this is, there have been recessions where not even this occurs. Therefore, in this regard, the extent and duration of stock market declines that we have already seen have been worse than some past recessions. Unfortunately, though, when this signal presents itself, there is usually more pain ahead. We are in a precarious circumstance with price now below the entire ribbon.
Another chart that has me concerned about a potential capitulation event is the 2-day chart for the tech short derivative chart (SQQQ). As many of you well know, when tech stocks fall in price, the price of SQQQ goes up.
As the chart above shows, the moving averages on the 2-day chart are nearing a complete crossover.
This has never happened before in SQQQ's 12-year history.
While only a possibility, this could set the stage for a capitulation event whereby Nasdaq 100 ( QQQ) stocks nosedive back down to their pre-pandemic highs.
Without getting too deep into the analysis, this could also mean that as a ratio to the money supply, the Nasdaq 100 goes all the way back to the March 2020 bottom.
In future posts, I'll discuss more about the money supply and why it can be used in this manner.
Monthly Chart
In terms of the monthly chart, as noted above, I do not see the S&P 500 realistically getting much below the 0.5 level in the chart below without some kind of a major price recovery.
While anything can happen, if the Fed pivots before the Fed Funds rate has risen above the rate at which commodity prices are inflating, I do believe we can end up in a difficult situation with high inflation again in the future.
Yearly Chart
When put into the perspective of the entire history of the stock market (going back in 1871), look how high the stock market is currently valued relative to its mean and past price action.
In terms of the post-Great Recession bull run, we are hanging on by our fingertips. See below.
Below is a closer view.
At the close of 2021, the stock market was so overbought (in terms of the Shiller PE ratio) that despite nearly 10 months of selling, stock valuation is still nearly as high as the peak before the Great Depression.
The stock market is extremely overvalued because of monetary easing. Monetary easing is a central bank experiment that began in recent decades and was normalized in the years following the Great Recession. The monetary easing experiment has created tremendous reliance on its continuity.
Only time will tell how the experiment ends...
Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your constructive thoughts. Thank you.
If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The expected moves that I've posted above were manually calculated by me using SPY options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the weekly expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
$SPY: Could swing either wayHere's what I see. I was set on things being bearish but now looking at it again, I do see a bit of a rally before it follows the downtrend again. Let me know what you guys think and please share your analysis as well. Thanks!
SPY Bullish reversal survives earningsWith (hopefully) the most disappointing earnings reports behind us and depending on the news over the weekend, I'll be ready Monday to look for a move, from bulls or bears, that rebounds off the buy zone of ($386.96 - $389.29). I will note, while I acknowledge the possibility of a bearish move above, the bulls seem to have considerable advantage considering the the general trend formation at the moment.
There was a large inverse head and shoulders pattern that developed on the SPY chart over the past few weeks. Going into earnings I didn't feel the urge to act on it yet, but with big companies having reported, ill be looking to act on this more in the coming weeks. If we break out the math and study our levels: it appears the shoulders formed at $357.09, the head at $348.11, and the neckline at $375.45. This indicates that breaking to the upside yields a mid term technical goal of $402.79. Which just happens to be in the next buy/sell zone. These points seem to be confirmed by the characteristic volume spikes on the left shoulder, and head, while the sellers became noticeably absent about time of the right shoulder allowing bulls to regain control.
This play has a Risk to reward ratio of over 5, with the stop loss being a close under the lower limit of the buy zone : $386.96
As always, good luck to all.
SPY weekly bullish hammer at MA 200Order BUY SPY ARCA Stop 374.06 LMT 374.06 will be automatically canceled at 20230401 01:00:00 EST
SPY weekly bullish hammer at MA 200 ABC correction into MA 100 or maybe that's it for the downtrend.
SPY daily bullish hammer retest of the long day candleOrder BUY SPY ARCA Stop 371.16 LMT 371.16 will be automatically canceled at 20230401 01:00:00 EST
SPY daily bullish hammer retest of the long day candle if we clear out local high pivot from above, can expect a price action upward. Be quick, protect your R.
$SPYThe Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPY LONGBulls unite!
We. Must. Squeeze.
Too tired to write an explanation, but super bullish if we can stay above the rising wedge. If we fall back into wedge or fall under wedge, I will revaluate!
TLT island bottomWow! I certainly did not expect this, but it should be in everyones best interest to flip long for short to mid term. TLT showing signs of a potential bottom (at best a local bottom). Island bottoms are super bullish and SHOULD NOT be faded. Pick your favorite meme stocks and go all-in longs. I think this is a bigger deal than most people think, especially before earnings and GDP news. Obviously this could flip on a dime; however, if we see any continuation our of this in the next couple days, I'd get ready for a fairly large short squeeze. STAY NIMBLE FOLKS
My favorite longs are:
TSLA
COIN
AMC
SPY - Expecting Local GrowthCorrectional movement failed to break the local support, we expect resumption of buying to resistance.
If you like the idea, mark it. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
$SPY - A Simple Plan - All You Need is PatienceSo here's what I am thinking. I do think we will trend higher and hit the $380 area and head back down. Thinking we hit $380 by the end of October and with FOMC we break the support at the bottom and head straight down.
SPY S&p 500 ETF and the Midterm ElectionsThe U.S. midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022.
All 435 U.S. House seats and 34 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot.
If you haven`t sold the high P/E ratio explained here:
Then you should know that the Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 18.10. Sill high in my opinion.
Even though my Price Target for the end of the year is $338, i expect a short term rally before the Midterm Elections.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
S&P500 leveraged making Sine wave pattern & returning to neckSSO is a safer 2x leveraged etf of SPX than SPXL. It recently formed slight divergence & a big engulfing candle, probably due to oversold RSI & also short coverings after Thursday’s dump & pump with investors betting massively on both directions triggered by a high CPI report.
Prices may return to the neckline (return to mean) next week.
Not trading advice
dkng bull flagLooking through some charts and noticed a bull flag forming in DKNG. Provided the overall market doesn't implode over the next couple days, I'm thinking it fights its way back up into the 16s not expecting it to break out of the flag formation but definitely possible/likely to test the top of the channel imo. Nice volume gap from here all the way up to the 16s area doesn't provide a ton of resistance. One issue I am seeing is the IV on the options contracts is very high. No position currently but will keep on watch and look to play it if the set-up stays the same. Not financial advice!
