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SPY Analysis (July 1st)We are seeing a Heikin Ashi reversal candlestick forming on the weekly chart for SPY Heikin Ashi candlesticks are used by chartists to identify trends more easily, as well as to identify potential trend reversals. Reversal Heikin Ashi candlesticks have small bodies and long upper and lower shadows. Interestingly, we are seeing a reversal Heikin Ashi candlestick occur at the Golden Ratio. The Golden Ratio refers to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (though in the context of Fibonacci extensions, the Golden Ratio can also refer to the 1.618 extension). Those levels are often seen as the most reliable Fibonacci levels as they reflect a mathematically harmonic ebb and flow. The Golden Ratio forms order out of irrational numbers and is used to form order out of the randomness and chaos of the stock market. The Fibonacci retracement levels on this chart are drawn from the November 2021 high down to the March 2020 low and are not logarithmically adjusted. In general, logarithmically adjusted Fibonacci levels are more reliable, but both formats are used by traders. Of note, historically, the S&P 500 is stronger in July than in June. From 1980 to 2019, the average return for July was 0.79% while it was just 0.02% for June. (Source: stockanalysis.com) Also credit to @Breakout_Charts for this idea.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
11
SPY AnalysisThis chart shows a trend-based Fibonacci retracement. The trend points used are (1) The market high right before the 2020 selloff, (2) the market low from the 2020 selloff, and (3) the most recent market high (in January 2022). As the chart shows, SPY has nearly perfect retraced back to the Golden Ratio. My expectation is that SPY will rally into and throughout July 2022. What are Fibonacci numbers? Fibonacci numbers are merely a series of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the prior two numbers. As the series grows, the ratio of each Fibonacci number to the previous Fibonacci number in the series converges to 1.618. Meanwhile, the ratio of each Fibonacci number to the next Fibonacci number converges to 0.618. These ratios often help us mathematically predict important support and resistance points of price action. Do Fibonacci numbers actually work? The stock market has always conformed to Fibonacci numbers both because many traders use them and it is thus self-fulfilling, but also because Fibonacci numbers help us mathematically approximate the ebbs and flow of crowd psychology and the fear and greed which dictate market participants' actions. Each time fear takes hold, market participants sell and cause price to fall back to a previous Fibonacci number (often the Golden Ratio, reflected as the proportion: 0.618). Then once the pervasive fear wanes, market participants begin to get greedy as they see a buying opportunity in the lower prices of the market. The fear that once caused selling then shifts to a fear of missing out on profit, and greed regains control of the market. Just as selling begets selling, buying begets buying, and so price continues up to a higher Fibonacci number, thus forming a pattern called the Golden Spiral. If you don't believe that the stock market has always conformed to Fibonacci numbers, try drawing a Fibonacci retracement level on the S&P 500 (SPX) from its all-time low in 1877 to its high in 1929 just before the Great Depression. You will see that the low point of the Great Recession was, of course, a Fibonacci ratio. This is just one of an endless amount of Fibonacci sequences that the stock market has followed over the years. Fibonacci sequences dictate price action on all timeframes. To the uninformed person, these endless golden spirals that dictate price action on multiple timeframes simply seems random...
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
8
10 yr yield VS Inverted S&P 500It appears 10 yr yields have peaked which should be great for equities. Interestingly when you flip the S&P 500 you pretty much get the yield curve. We have seen clear inverse correlation. Oil and Nat gas also looked like they topped so I suspect peak inflation has been reached for a while and the fed may begin to pivot and either hike much less (25 bps), stop hiking, or lower the rates as rates follow bond yield. This will make for excellent tailwinds in asset markets.
SP:SPX
by ceesounds
2
SPY Likely in Final Bottoming PhaseThis is a monthly chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with the Ichimoku Cloud indicator applied. Outside of the context of recessions, SPY has typically bottomed after finding support on the Base Line (red line) of the Ichimoku Cloud. Although SPY has currently fallen below this line, this does not necessarily mean the Base Line has failed, more likely SPY is simply in its final bottoming phase and is forming the tail, or lower wick, of the monthly candle. It is very conceivable that June will finish the month closer to the Base Line, which if the case could send SPY higher, in the months to come as the trend will continue. There are quite a few additional indicators and oscillators that suggest this may be the case. However, if SPY finishes the month clearly lower this Base Line, then that would be quite bearish and would cause reason to believe that the long-term bull run is perhaps ending.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
7
QQQ bullish and SPY bullish, QQQ gap fillSo we have been trading in a range on the SPY for the better part of the past week and a half. And in the past hour we broke that range to the bearish side. So time to go bearish... well not so fast. Everybody could see that channel and all we really did on the SPY was pull back into the top point of the double top bottom from earlier in May, so expect people to be buying at that level. Also, the QQQ just filled the gap it had from 2 weeks ago (see chart). Tomorrow will be interesting but expect strong buying to get back into that range.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Options_Trading
1
Will the recent range break to the upside? CPI - the catalyst The overall market absorbed another profit warning from $TGT yesterday and rallied from the lows of the range. $407 held once again and we rallied up to the highs of the recent range. We already have 7 sessions within this tight range. In case of a move in either direction, we expect at least 10 points of upside/downside. As long as the CPI numbers come in lower than expected on Friday, we expect the $SPY to get above $422-425. For now, one can buy the dip at the lower part of the range and sell into the resistance area.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Eclubtrading
SPX/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *The VIX is heading down, USDX down, Gold down and for the first week in years, crypto is decoupling from equities as it has gone down while equities have gone up. Risk-on investing is starting to lose favor in crypto due to a multitude of reasons but mainly because most market speculation was concentrated in crypto. What is shaping up to be a Bear Market Rally, that may very well run into next month, will face a big challenge when the Fed begins to reduce their balance sheet of security holdings (treasury and mortgage-backed securities) on June 1st and the FOMC releases a statement after they regroup on June 14-15 regarding another funds rate hike (Fed is committed to at least a 50 bp rate hike in both June and July).* Recommended ratio: 70% SPY, 30% cash . Price bounced off of $3939 (second time in eight sessions) and is currently on the verge of testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as resistance at ~$4090 (also for the second time in eight sessions). Volume remains high (moderate) and is on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3813; this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending vertically at 48 as it quickly approaches a formal retest of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 83 but is still technically testing 76.29 resistance. RSI remains bullish for a second consecutive day and is currently trending up at -84.13 as it quickly approaches -76.22 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 28.42 as Price is surging, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout above the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$4090, then the next likely target is a test of $4175 resistance before potentially moving higher. However, if Price is rejected at ~$4090, it will likely retest $3938 minor support before potentially falling lower to $3706 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
$SPY Let's See Where We GoCurrently, $SPY is working with in solid range, but it looks like $385 might be the bottom. If it breaks $385 we will move down to $330 but I doubt it breaks. I think is not the beginning of the end but the start of a new trading pattern. Chop possibly for the rest of the yea. Up and down movement working within the range of $450-$410, but again the market can do whatever it wants but my guess is we do not see $500 for another 2-3 years, we got some consolidation to do before we get that type of movement, the last two years are bad examples of the market volatility and movement. The market relied heavily on tech stocks to bolsters itself through the pandemic, with strong earning reports quarter after quarter from the FAANGs (largely tech companies), the "market" was able to rally. The "rally" was more so bullish sentiment built on a façade, it was like looking at a mirage of water in a desert, it looks great but when you finally get there, there is no water. That is how our market acted, we finally got to the top, we got out of the pandemic and we realized there was no water. The market was overbought, there is a myriad of reasons why: stimulus checks, retail trading boost, people staying home, transportation cost reduction, you name it. Yet no one factored any of these into their estimations, like how could you not factor in the price of gas in a company like Amazon, gas costs went down, product costs remained the same, margin increase. But let's say you did see that and factor it in, you also missed the fact that over millions Americans continued to eat, while the workers to produce food decreased, leading to a decrease in reserve supplies to produce food, leading to global shortages that we will be facing in the next couple of months. By the time most people realized this, it was too late. But none of the matters because now people overreacting, they are selling everything and that's where you the smart savvy investor come in. Snapchat is down 40% today (5/24), oversold, when people are bearish bad news becomes the worst news in history, and this plays into my theory. That the reason the market is tanking is not due to some economic collapse, the stock market doesn't work in tandem with the economy anymore, not since 2008. If it did, 2020 and 2021 would have been much worse. No the stock market operates on it's own and is controlled by major capital. Tech stocks need to rebalance, they were overbought, this should not be a shock to anyone. In order to achieve in equilibrium in the stock market we most lower the prices of the FAANGs + MTBV, this will allow the market to find a balance to build up from. The issue with selling the FAANGs + MTBV is that drags down the entire market, which if you remove the tech sector has been down for the last couple of months, so mid-caps and small-caps have been hammered by this downward movement. Snapchat being down %40 is a buy opportunity, Pinterest losing 23% off Snapchat bearish sentiment is a buy opportunity, Trade Desk hitting almost a 2 year low, buy opportunity. Even if I am wrong, and the market turns down for the next 1.5 years, in 3 years you will have made a profit. That is the wonderful part of the stock market, in a 20 year time span you are less than 0.01% to lose money. But if I am correct and the market jumps from here you just missed your best buy opportunity. FAANGs + MTBV: Facebook (Meta) Apple Amazon Netflix Google (Alphabet) Microsoft Tesla Berkshire Hathaway Visa
AMEX:SPY
by chasenlz
2