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Market Analysis - SPY PerformanceIn this post, I will attempt to analyze where the market currently stands, and present both a strong bull case and a strong bear case. Bull case: First, the chart: The chart above shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a 4h timeframe. The yellow and orange lines are exponential moving averages that represent the MA Exp Ribbon. As noted in a prior post, the MA Exp Ribbon acts as resistance when price hits it from below. In order to pierce through the ribbon, and make a bullish breakout, a candle must do so on high volume and with strong momentum. On the bottom is the Stochastic RSI oscillator, which helps measure momentum. For the first time, in a long time, the 4h chart of SPY has seen price near the top of MA Exp Ribbon with strong momentum building to push through it. It is quite likely that the price will break through. Second, the VIX: As the chart below shows, the VIX has broken down from the trend that it held during its most volatile period over the second quarter. Just be cautious and patient because the VIX has not yet broken below its weekly MA Exp Ribbon. Third, the Advance-Decline Line (ADL): The advance-decline line has broken out and is absolutely soaring. This is possibly one of the most bullish-looking charts out there. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes, and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs. Right now there is a strong bullish divergence and the major indices have yet to break out. Seasonality: The current period (mid- to late-July) is typically bullish from a seasonality perspective: charts.equityclock.com . Indeed, there was a bull run during this period even in 2008 during the Great Recession. Bear case: (Warning this part is scary - but remember never to invest or trade based on emotion) Yield curve inversion: The 10-year minus the 2-year Treasury yield is used to detect an impending recession. When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year yield that creates a yield curve inversion, which can often indicate that a recession is coming. In essence, it creates the presumption that shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term yields because we're in the late phase of an economic cycle when the economy is overheating, and that soon, the economy will slow down. Right now the yield curve inversion is very steep. In fact, just last week, the yield curve inversion actually steepened to a level that was even worse than what we saw before the Great Recession. Perhaps even more alarming is the extremely odd fact that the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury is NOT indicating a recession. The federal reserve uses the 10-year minus the 3-month as a more reliable indicator for detecting an impending recession than the 10-year minus the 2-year. Right now that indicator is only showing a 6% chance of a recession in the year ahead: www.newyorkfed.org However, there's a major problem that throws into question the reliability of that indicator at the current time, and that problem is: The Rate of Change in the 10-year yield is off the charts. Look at the 10-year yield Rate of Change on a 3-month basis: There's no way the 3-month yield could possibly invert relative the 10-year yield when the latter's rate of change is off-the-charts, unless the former's rate of change was even more off-the-charts (as we see with the 2-year, which is why the 2-year was able to invert against the 10-year). Here's the 2-year yield rate of change: Therefore, the 10-year minus the 3-month may be showing no inversion, not because the chance of a recession is actually low, but more likely because the indicator itself is no longer working because the rate of change in the 10-year yield is so parabolic. The 10-year minus 3-month indicator only reliably works if the assumption that the 10-year yield rate of change will be relatively stable compared to the 3-month yield rate of change holds true. In the current environment, that assumption does not hold true. We've never seen this kind of rate of change in the 10-year yield during the period for which this indicator has been used to predict recessions. The 3-month yield would have inverted against the 10-year yield months ago, if the 10-year yield had remained relatively stable as it has during the past several decades. However, the 3-month yield cannot invert against something moving so fast to the upside. This is just simple math. This is extremely worrisome because many people are using this tool as a reason to believe that no recession will occur, when in fact, the tool has likely broken. In the scientific community, we know that a tool only works if its validity and reliability can be established. Validity refers to the extent to which the tool actually measures what it is being used to measure, and reliability refers to the extent to which the tool consistently makes accurate measurements. In this case, the reliability of the 10Y-3M tool has broken down because the assumption that the 10-year yield would always be more stable relative to the 3-month yield is not true this time around. This time is indeed different... So I leave you with these strong bull and strong bear considerations, and it is for you to determine how you want to play the market. Remember the rules of good trading!
AMEX:SPYLong
by SpyMasterTrades
11
SPY breakout attempt Number 1Breakout attempts can happen without any triggers but when a trigger appears and coincides with market bottom, then there is an agreement and slight trading conviction that may be worth considering into the last half of the year. There is a daily wolfe wave setup that triggered on June 21 closing day at 3767.75. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 4332 which is expected to reach this price target before Sept 30. Projected targets are defined by identifying the apex of the wolfe wave and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection tgt which is extending from left to right.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TOSOPTION
SPY About to Go Bullish? Corrections occurring in 5-3-5 patterns generally start a new rally. Wave A appears to have taken the form of a leading diagonal - Wave B (abc) - Wave C (5 wave impulse. Though we sit within a bear channel, it is possible that a new impulse has begun and that waves 1 and 2 have printed. Weekly stochastic indicator suggests that we may be primed for a move to the upside. Stay tuned for more developments. Please let me know what you think, I am by no means an Elliott Wave pro, but aspire to be one. Criticism is welcomed!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Dam305
2
SPY: Short & Long Trading OpportunitiesSPY Daily providing brief directional opportunities for acute trades to the upside. Higher levels of conviction support the control held by sellers in the market auction; With a volume shelf last revisited and sustained notable in March 2021. After holding fair price of 377.03, the next critical level on watch for acceptance or rejection of fair value is 381.58, then KL of 385.42 (20SMA). Trend has been shown to be weaker when reaching resistance levels originating from March 2022. Levels >389.78 sees a revisit of next favorable area of structure via a gap to late 390's. Directional performance is contingent on using combined volume and value area placements during current market conditions// IV: 24.79%, IV Percentile: 79% , ATR: 8.79, Beta: 1.00
AMEX:SPY
by GroundNinja
SPY MACD/RSI divergenceLooking for a bear market rally over the next several weeks as the MACD and RSI have a divergence with the SPY; RSI also has a divergence on the weekly. I think we will eventually go lower on the SPY but for the next few weeks it's hard say bearish is the direction. The market has put in some strong selling this year, so far, and just needs a break from bearish activity. It's just the way it works. Also spotted a Bearish Elliot Wave 5 count that ended 2 weeks ago, so expect bullishness for now. Have a good 4th of July.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Options_Trading
SPY Analysis (July 1st)We are seeing a Heikin Ashi reversal candlestick forming on the weekly chart for SPY Heikin Ashi candlesticks are used by chartists to identify trends more easily, as well as to identify potential trend reversals. Reversal Heikin Ashi candlesticks have small bodies and long upper and lower shadows. Interestingly, we are seeing a reversal Heikin Ashi candlestick occur at the Golden Ratio. The Golden Ratio refers to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (though in the context of Fibonacci extensions, the Golden Ratio can also refer to the 1.618 extension). Those levels are often seen as the most reliable Fibonacci levels as they reflect a mathematically harmonic ebb and flow. The Golden Ratio forms order out of irrational numbers and is used to form order out of the randomness and chaos of the stock market. The Fibonacci retracement levels on this chart are drawn from the November 2021 high down to the March 2020 low and are not logarithmically adjusted. In general, logarithmically adjusted Fibonacci levels are more reliable, but both formats are used by traders. Of note, historically, the S&P 500 is stronger in July than in June. From 1980 to 2019, the average return for July was 0.79% while it was just 0.02% for June. (Source: stockanalysis.com) Also credit to @Breakout_Charts for this idea.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
11
SPY AnalysisThis chart shows a trend-based Fibonacci retracement. The trend points used are (1) The market high right before the 2020 selloff, (2) the market low from the 2020 selloff, and (3) the most recent market high (in January 2022). As the chart shows, SPY has nearly perfect retraced back to the Golden Ratio. My expectation is that SPY will rally into and throughout July 2022. What are Fibonacci numbers? Fibonacci numbers are merely a series of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the prior two numbers. As the series grows, the ratio of each Fibonacci number to the previous Fibonacci number in the series converges to 1.618. Meanwhile, the ratio of each Fibonacci number to the next Fibonacci number converges to 0.618. These ratios often help us mathematically predict important support and resistance points of price action. Do Fibonacci numbers actually work? The stock market has always conformed to Fibonacci numbers both because many traders use them and it is thus self-fulfilling, but also because Fibonacci numbers help us mathematically approximate the ebbs and flow of crowd psychology and the fear and greed which dictate market participants' actions. Each time fear takes hold, market participants sell and cause price to fall back to a previous Fibonacci number (often the Golden Ratio, reflected as the proportion: 0.618). Then once the pervasive fear wanes, market participants begin to get greedy as they see a buying opportunity in the lower prices of the market. The fear that once caused selling then shifts to a fear of missing out on profit, and greed regains control of the market. Just as selling begets selling, buying begets buying, and so price continues up to a higher Fibonacci number, thus forming a pattern called the Golden Spiral. If you don't believe that the stock market has always conformed to Fibonacci numbers, try drawing a Fibonacci retracement level on the S&P 500 (SPX) from its all-time low in 1877 to its high in 1929 just before the Great Depression. You will see that the low point of the Great Recession was, of course, a Fibonacci ratio. This is just one of an endless amount of Fibonacci sequences that the stock market has followed over the years. Fibonacci sequences dictate price action on all timeframes. To the uninformed person, these endless golden spirals that dictate price action on multiple timeframes simply seems random...
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
8
10 yr yield VS Inverted S&P 500It appears 10 yr yields have peaked which should be great for equities. Interestingly when you flip the S&P 500 you pretty much get the yield curve. We have seen clear inverse correlation. Oil and Nat gas also looked like they topped so I suspect peak inflation has been reached for a while and the fed may begin to pivot and either hike much less (25 bps), stop hiking, or lower the rates as rates follow bond yield. This will make for excellent tailwinds in asset markets.
SP:SPX
by ceesounds
2
SPY Likely in Final Bottoming PhaseThis is a monthly chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with the Ichimoku Cloud indicator applied. Outside of the context of recessions, SPY has typically bottomed after finding support on the Base Line (red line) of the Ichimoku Cloud. Although SPY has currently fallen below this line, this does not necessarily mean the Base Line has failed, more likely SPY is simply in its final bottoming phase and is forming the tail, or lower wick, of the monthly candle. It is very conceivable that June will finish the month closer to the Base Line, which if the case could send SPY higher, in the months to come as the trend will continue. There are quite a few additional indicators and oscillators that suggest this may be the case. However, if SPY finishes the month clearly lower this Base Line, then that would be quite bearish and would cause reason to believe that the long-term bull run is perhaps ending.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
7
QQQ bullish and SPY bullish, QQQ gap fillSo we have been trading in a range on the SPY for the better part of the past week and a half. And in the past hour we broke that range to the bearish side. So time to go bearish... well not so fast. Everybody could see that channel and all we really did on the SPY was pull back into the top point of the double top bottom from earlier in May, so expect people to be buying at that level. Also, the QQQ just filled the gap it had from 2 weeks ago (see chart). Tomorrow will be interesting but expect strong buying to get back into that range.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Options_Trading
1