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Spylong

Backtesting the FOMC meetings: are the rate hikes priced in?I’m going to profit off of the fact that next Tuesday (May 3rd) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) main meeting will take place to backtest how this event affects the markets (focusing on Bitcoin but in the end all the markets are connected). Firstly, I’m going to talk about what I expect Jerome Powell to say in the upcoming meeting, and then I’ll explain how they affect price. Lastly, I’ll estimate some technical targets. Meeting expectations So briefly, the results of the last CPI were 7.5% year over year (YoY) inflation, not above nor below the expectations. The jobs report that came out on March 31st showed signs of rising wages and a decrease in unemployment. As these events are already priced in as they happened weeks ago, the approach I want to take on this data is that the Fed wants to keep their position, not too dovish but not too hawkish, as the expectations are being met. The thing that the Fed has looked more at is the current conflict in Ukraine, which affected supply chains but, surprisingly, didn’t reduce consumer demand. And this means that they will have to start being more aggressive on the next rate hikes, announcing 50 basis points (bps) in the next two meetings. Regarding this unpredictable situation, if they keep the same position (which I see likely), they would want to return to 25 bps hikes as soon as they can. The market reaction With all that said, the Fed is likely to maintain their ideas, so I’ll dive into the backtesting part of the article. If we take the distance between every meeting since January 2021 and the next swing high/low (in percentages), and do an average excluding the outliers, we get around 8% move to the upside after every meeting. Note that this is usually driven by momentum, and the market reaction in the long-term may be totally different (as we see in November and December). However, the Fed has changed (and thus the market reactions) since they said inflation is no ‘longer’ transitory. The odds of a recession started to get higher and the fear kicked in. Then, in January, I think the price reacted positively as the Federal Reserve showed that they might not turn hawkish. And the same happened in the last meeting, when everyone feared the consequences of the war. Nothing can change now: we have a catalyst (the Fed announcing they’re going to hike 50 bps instead of 25), markets have trended down before the meeting and technical analysis, though especially on-chain analysis are still showing bullish signs. Targets based on technical analysis Before anything, I’m still confident we have to take the liquidity below $37k, which I expect to see at the start of the week, before the FOMC. Usually liquidity taking action implies that there is going to be a bounce just after the price is reached, so this makes percent sense if we add the volatility that there should be during the meeting. In the next few days after it, I’d expect at least the high Bitcoin has set a few days ago at $40.4k to be taken, which is a 10% upside from $37k (close to the average move since 2021). If we end up going higher I’d expect the fair value gap (or FVG) at $45k to fill, which would represent a 22% move (similar to the last two meetings). Lastly, I’d expect the SPY to move similarly and try to consolidate somewhere around $440 as most earnings haven’t been bad, with the only big exception being Amazon.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by config_json
Descending Broadening Wedge - #AAPL Descending Broadening Wedge ( Reversal pattern ) $AAPL Price makes a low and rises. We then track price as it rises away from the low. We are looking for lower highs and lower lows in a tight range. The lower highs make a falling trendline, this forms the upper boundary to our pattern. The lower lows make a lower falling trendline, this forms the lower boundary to our pattern. With the Descending Broadening Wedge formation we are looking for two touches to each trendline. Both the upper and lower trendlines should fall. The lower trend line should fall more steeply than the upper trendline thus forming the broadening wedge. Tall and wide patterns work better than short and narrow patterns. Descending Broadening Wedges tend to breakout upwards. Swing traders can trade the pattern from top to bottom and from bottom to top. After the trendlines are formed, as soon as price touches the upper trendline go short. Cover this short (exit the trade) when price reaches the lower trendline. As price touches the lower trendline go long (buy). Place your stop below the lower trendline. Trade price upwards to the upper trendline. Exit this trade here. When price breaks the upper trendline and closes above it this signals a breakout. Go long (buy) here. The target is the first (highest) high in the pattern.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by K-alonzi
1
Spy heading to 465.. . then 470...As I have been stating for a while, it it not a BEAR market. I expect Monday to be a Green day and a GREEN week. I will not be surprised if it gaps up on Monday. There is a resistance at 445 range but it will break through. We will see 470 before we see 420s..but first we will touch 465 first.. One step at a time.. The stock market moves are not logical. If it was, it won't be at this price right now. So the employment reports, inflation, UKraine crisis, Covid, etc.. is all irrelevant. Only thing it matters is PRICE action. ________________________________________________________________ Are you being led by Jesus or you? Bible says only if you are led by Jesus, you are a Christian. If you are not, I recommend you get baptized with the holy spirit. Holy spirit is Jesus. Romans 8 14 New International Version For those who are led by the Spirit of Jesus are the children of God.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jonniefriday206
16
$SPY 500: Strong Bullish Divergence!⭐7.86 Fib Mounted as strong support confirmed by a significant amount of volume (425) This support is valid by the VPVR and Bullish Divergence on the MFI. ⭐6.18 Fib Support mounted with large volume. This support 435 is valid due to the large VPVR node + volume. ⭐446 Resistance confirmed by VPVR and selling volume + Ichimoku Cloud Resistance. ⭐453 Resistance confirmed by 2.32 Fib and large VPVR node + selling volume. ⭐For bullish price action a 3D close above 446 is needed to reclaim Ichimoku Cloud support. ⭐Strong Bullish Divergence on the MFI hints for a breakout ⭐Options Chain bullish 70k Volume + 20k Open Interest at 450 which makes it a likely target. Lower targets than this are unlikely due to the bullish options chain. *WARNING* This thread is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Patriick2jz
QQQ (and SPY) down after hours from NFLX earning, BUYNFLX is garbage and really never should have been in the same conversation as other big tech name, the so called FANG. To me the N was always NVDA. NFLX had it's growth period but really never should have been considered a big deal after DIS announced Disney+. Disney+ is where streaming is at currently. Another thing is the current societal environment. PEOPLE ARE TIRED OF BEING LOCKED DOWN. People have started traveling, per DAL earnings last week. DAL is seeing all time demand. So, it's not that people are cutting back expenses or anything like that; it's that people are wanting to go play. Last thing, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, TSLA, FB, DIS; I'd ask you which one doesn't belong... Hopefully you said NFLX, nothing about them makes them on par with the others; even close. The fact that the market after hours has responded so bearishly to a company that irrelevant is just an opportunity. I'd be surprised if we stayed down all night with futures. The real key to earnings will be tomorrow with TSLA. I'd expect them to say, they have strong demand, but the key with them will be what they say about battery supply chain. If it's not a problem, the market rips higher. Key though is TSLA demand; are people spending money. All this to wrap up with this, buying opportunity!!!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Options_Trading
6
Heading toward 470.The chart shows it is still bullish if you look at it from larger time frame. The resistance area has been drawn to indicate where it might fall before it needs to shoot up. It has been numbered to show the path where the Target price might hit. This is future prediction which can change. If you are trading swing options, you should be buying options 4 to 6 months until expiration so your time decay does not get eaten up. John 13 35 By this everyone will know that you are Christian, if you love one another.”
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jonniefriday206
12
Again.. heading toward 470s... What to expect next week: Scenario 1: It will shoot up and test resistance 465 and overcome it and hit 470s Scenario 2: It will drop to 438 - 439 and bounce off and resume bullish trend...and toward 470s.. What likely to happen: Scenario 1 What if Scenario 2 happens? I would go long at 438 -439 price range.. In general, the market goes against the mass sentiment. If the mass thinks it will go up, it will likely go down and vice versa. Don't trust media. Don't trust the Fed. Don't even trust inflation numbers. Don't even trust the VIX. Market is trying to make money. Anything they offer as important tool for you, it is to go against you. _____________________________________________ Are you a real Christian of fake Christian? Here is what Jesus said to be a real true Christian. A man’s enemies will be the members of his own household.’ 37Anyone who loves his father or mother more than Me is not worthy of Me; anyone who loves his son or daughter more than Me is not worthy of Me; 38and anyone who does not take up his cross and follow Me is not worthy of Me. Do you love Jesus more than anyone in your life? If the answer is NO.. you are not a Christian..according to this bible verse. Make sure you pray to Jesus everyday and obey him. Learn to hear his voice and have him guide you everyday. This life is like a penny. You will die sooner or later. Life in heaven is forever.. is like a billion dollars. Invest in billion dollars rather than a penny. Disclaimer: This is just my opinion. I am not a financial advisor. I live and die for my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ who died for my sins on the cross so I can have life. I was breathing and enjoying life but I was spiritually dead when I didn't know Jesus. Once I woke he was real, my life has forever changed. If you make money, make sure to share with the needy. Make sure you glorify Jesus in every aspect of your life by thanking him by your actions and conduct and not by just words.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jonniefriday206
1
4/3 - Is Going to be a GREEN WEEK ..Hitting toward 470s..Now it has stopped to refill the Gas tank, ... It is going to test ATH... I was hoping for a pullback this week so I can cash out my CALL position last week but due to pullback last week, I will be cashing out my call position this week since my CALL expiration is coming up... . If you are shorting, I recommend you cash out your PUT position on Monday ASAP... or you will lose more money as days go by.. The BOTTOM has already hit few weeks ago so you are not going back.. )))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) Hebrews 13:5 ESV Keep your life free from love of money, and be content with what you have, for Jesus has said, “I will never leave you nor forsake you.” Proverbs 19:17 ESV / Whoever is generous to the poor lends to the Lord Jesus, and he will repay him for his good deed.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jonniefriday206
1