Target reached 3/29/22, bullish close = final bull move (470)At the beginning of the week, I called SPX hitting 4626 and SPY 460 by the end of the week but it seems it has reached to the price a lot faster than expected.
Moving forward, todays close is imperative to future movement as one more bull run might be imminent before the eventual correction. If SPX is to close around the 4620s, I could see it pushing one last time up to a total price of 4700+ specifically 4707. Once reached, there may be more of a reason to short the entire market even if temporarily to 4504.
As for SPY , 470 is possible given the price closes bullish today and follows SPX movement.
Thank you for reading.
Spylong
Target reached 3/29/22, bullish close = final bull move (4700+)At the beginning of the week , I called SPX hitting 4626 and SPY 460 by the end of the week but it seems it has reached to the price a lot faster than expected.
Moving forward, todays close is imperative to future movement as one more bull run might be imminent before the eventual correction . If SPX is to close around the 4620s , I could see it pushing one last time up to a total price of 4700 + specifically 4707 . Once reached, there may be more of a reason to short the entire market even if temporarily to 4504 .
As for SPY, 470 is possible given the price closes bullish today.
Thank you for reading.
Still. we should see 460 range.. Keeping my eye on 464 or moreI am expecting to see 464 or even hit 470 this week.
I have a call position that will expire in 2 week. Likely I will be closing out my position this Friday.
But be aware, this is a pullback coming and then it will test ATH.
DO NOT SHORT, It is going to be a GREEN WEEK. Just my opinion. I am not a financial advisor. Make sure to look at both perspectives every time you place a trade.
_________________________________________________________________________________-
Jesus said, "I tell you, no; but unless you repent you will all likewise perish." Luke 13 3
Let there be no filthiness nor foolish talk nor crude joking, which are out of place, but instead let there be thanksgiving. Ephesians 5:4
Khans SPY-Outlook 03/29/22The big push yesterday broke through the former Supply-Area 452-4 - that should be our new Demand now.
With green Pre-Market we should look at the next big resistance at 457 - with SPX at 4560 we should be able to test it today.
House-Prices and a few FED-Speaker today, so trade carefully
I expect a slightly bullish month-ending. HF-Manager need to report their Quarterly-Results soon... ;-)
SPX to 4600+ 3/28/22 (The week ahead)The week overall appears bullish and all
the markets need right now is anything
that'll help run it up some more. There'll
be a plentiful of good news coming up
that will give something to the MMs to
sink their teeth onto.
As for my targets, the price will be driven
up to 4626 , perhaps some dollars higher
if we're to come into extra volatility.
However, I would be careful around these
levels going forward, as the MMs will
decidedly so find a way to take profits
around the early 4620s , potentially finding
support around the 4500s specifically
4504 .
Next week .. we should see 460 range.. Keeping my eye on 464We were about 1 or 2 pip away from 155. Next week I expect to see somewhere between 460 to 470
I will be keeping my eye on target price of 464.
DO NOT SHORT. Just my opinion. I am not a financial advisor.
_______________________________________________________________________
Are you a "real" Christian or fake one? Here is what Jesus said to be a "real" Christian.
"37 If you love your father or mother or even your sons and daughters more than me, you are not fit to be my disciples. 38 And unless you are willing to take up your cross and follow me, you are not fit to be my disciples. 39 If you try to save your life, you will lose it. But if you give it up for me, you will surely find it."
Matthew 10 37
Are you living your life for Jesus or for you? I hope you are living your life for him. That is a real Christian according to this bible verse.
SPY still heading to 455 to 460 range... No worriesA little pullback today.. No worries.. It is going to be a Green day tomorrow...
Matthew 12:36-37 ESV
I tell you, on the day of God's judgment people will give account for every careless word they speak, for by your words you will be justified, and by your words you will be condemned.”
SPY: Run with the Bulls to 550Don't listen to the clueless bears who tell you that the market is going to crash this year. Their posts will magically disappear as the bull market rages on like they do every year. SPY is heading to 550 then 450 then 600 then 120. No crash until 2024. Stay long for some great gains, and sell CCs strategically.
Resuming to 455 to 460 range Bottom is already in. No crash this month. I will not be shorting at all unless you were scalping in pullbacks.
For right now, TP is 455 to 460 range.
You must receive the holy spirit as a proof that you belong to Jesus. If you don't have the holy spirit living in you, you are no different a Muslim, Buddhist, or an Atheist. It doesn't matter how many times you say you believe in Jesus. Jesus will send the holy spirit to you acknowledge you belong to him.
Romans 8 16
The Holy Spirit himself bears witness with our spirit that we are children of God
Khans SPY Outlook - 03/23/22We are heading into Day 6 of the reversal-squeeze. Futures are slightly red and i would assume that the price needs to consolidate a bit/re-test the DEMA 100 and form a new Base.
The next resistance above is a pretty strong one and i doubt that it will be broken today.
Possible little Bull-Trap in the morning, so watch out.
4 Hour Chart For SPYIn an earlier post I mentioned that SPY looks really bearish for the short term. However, this sideways move looks corrective for the first wave and looks like a C wave will begin next. Looking for 430-432 before we start making the big move down to 400. Check out YT channel with link in profile for more details.
$SPY closed the week at lows but did not break downThe overall market had a poor weekly performance but managed to absorb a week of negative news. Higher inflation number, oil prices and the end of QE could not break key support levels. The bottom may be forming soon. Be greedy when others are fearful!
Bullish ScenarioFed meeting goes well, nothing surprise the market.
This is the end of the bear cycle ending with a retest of a key area of support (420), which is confirm by the bullish divergence.
This is a whole falling wedge supported by the 20 monthly Ma (409).
Last candle was a big bear trap, fell below a key support and closed back over it.
Big volume days tend to happem at support.
Outlook on SPY leading into the weekendI know this is a little bit of a messy chart. Alot of trend lines and yellow rectangles-
Here is the breakdown and outlook for SPY leading into the weekend and next week-
I am anticipating a small correction this morning that will lead us to Pre market gap fill with a target of 426.44. This will achieve gap fill and trendline support (Green box for reference)
From there, i will be looking for confirmation of strength and bounce and will enter a long position (Put Credit Spreads likely) where my next bullish target will be 437.10. This is my breakout target for the massive triangle we have seen (we can see part of it in the chart) AND it is a gap level that will be filled once hit. (Purple box for reference)
There is a much larger gap towards the bottom of the chart. I do anticipate us to fill this gap at some point in time. However, generally when there is a large trend reversal, we almost always leave a gap for us to come back and respect.
SPY bounce off from the support what's next?Today $SPY bounce off from the support line after wallstreet turns bullish in the market with no positive news. i mention this before from the last analysis, that market could bounce around the support line.
the support line is very visible on the 1hr, 4hr and Daily chart. its also very visible that market is making lower highs ( see my trend line in chart ) a possible sign of short term bullish before it head back to
lower again. keep in mind also that FAANG stocks is following the same chart pattern and trend line with SPY. to continue its momentum SPY needs to break the resistance around 437-440 to continue its momentum.
Overall market still looking bearish. swinging will be tough specially with geopolitical issue going on that could shake the market anytime of the day even in pre
Day trade or scalp target play: 03/ 10 /22
Buy call above 430.34 sell at 433.07 or above
Buy puts below 424.65 sell at 421.89 or below
Hello everyone,
welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play )
I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities
for day trades or scalp play.
If you have any questions or suggestions which stock I should analyze, please leave a comment below.
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for stopping by and stay tune for more.
My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes only.
SPY HUGE FALLING WEDGE UPDATE *WARNING**WARNING: LOTS OF READING*
tldr; LONG TERM: This is bullish.
DO NOT mistake me for thinking that I am about to say below is saying we will crash all the way down to SPY 200.
Now... onto the post below...
From my previous update:
I was looking for a break of the falling wedge around the 448 level, but that obviously failed.
I was also looking for a bigger bounce from the EOM/BOM flows (yesterday and today) into the higher end range of this falling wedge. Neither of those happened.
Clarification:
When I mention EOM/BOM flows, I do NOT mean that markets will rocket. It's not as simple as that.
Rather, it is to say that the markets are propped up from too significant of a decline.
This applies to pretty much every month of the year where the cycle repeats ON AVERAGE:
-EOM (End of Month) and BOM (Beginning of month) flows support the market until Friday preceding OPEX week(market can move higher if there are two consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma during this period). Most recently in terms of market dynamics: the 20SMA is where market battles between bulls and bears happen the most. They try to claim the 20sma for their side.
*Any 2 consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma for the bulls during window of supportive strength can lead to even higher market prices.
*Any 2 consecutive closes below the 20sma (note nothing to do with STD for the downside) during window of supportive weakness can lead to lower market prices.
-VIXperation Wednesday (usually is when stage 1 of the unwinding of supportive flows begin). Depending on price action, this can have opposite effects. Usually, if this month is heavily hedged (via VIX calls, SPY puts) and price action isn't pushed to the downside, then those contracts will expire worthless and MM delta neutral hedges will unwind, causing price to push to the upside because of short covering. If price action is already pushing toward the downside, price action can actually snowball more to the downside.
-OPEX Friday (stage 2 of unwinding of supportive flows). Similar to the above. Depends on price action and where contracts are placed.
-Week after OPEX Friday leading to EOM (stage 3 and the most critical). Supportive flows are not as present, meaning decline of price action is very much possible in this time period. Two consecutive daily closes below the 20SMA will lead to further decline.
Let's summarize end of February price action:
February VIXpiry Wednesday 02/16/22: Hedges unwound and we squeezed significantly to the upside. *Short covering rally/squeeze
February OPEX Friday 02/18/22: Unwinding of current contracts and hedges, led to significant decline to the downside.
February week after OPEX Tuesday 02/22/22- Thursday 02/24/22: SIGNIFICANT market decline into a sharp reversal on Thursday, leading to Friday and eventually this week EOM/BOM.
Yesterday and today, the supportive flows did NOT move us significantly higher. We haven't even reached the 20sma. Again, this period of supportive flows is where bulls have the opportunity to take control over the 20sma. They are failing to do so at the moment.
This is ominous for the bulls.
This supportive period ends effectively on 03/11-03/14 (start of opex week), so we have a lot of work to do.
Not to mention that in addition, we have FUTURES roll date on 03/10 (not going to get into that...), FOMC speakers, Biden SOTU, etc... things are not looking hot.
*Keep in mind that the big guys can front run the flows any which way, so the market structure above is NOT all-exhaustive.*
---------------------------------------------------------------
What is my plan?
If you didn't know already.... I'm majorly bearish into March OPEX and even beyond. The reason I put downside targets of SPY 404 --> 398 , etc., is because I think that ultimately, we will trade there within the next couple months.
I am primarily cash while playing minor plays to the downside upon ANY rally to the upside. No rally thus far since January has been sustained. Every significant rally has been faded.
Primary position: 03/25/22 SPY 400p
Intra-day plays: Hedge with weekly calls to the upside to endure any squeezes to the upside. Take profit and sell at resistances.
----------------------------------------------------------------
You have to function with the mindset that Mr. Market will do whatever it takes to F*ck the most amount of retail investors possible. That is why you will have extremely volatile swings to both the upside and the downside, while ultimately maintaining a downtrend.
Retail investors from 2020-2021 have been trained by the FED (due to unlimited liquidity) to just BTFD. You can NOT do that anymore. Please listen.
You have to be using VERY little leverage here because price can go against you in an instant.
You should be PRIMARILY cash.
You can play the downside, but put very little money to do so. Trust me, you don't need to put a lot of money in to reap a lot of rewards to playing the downside.
Can SPY Reach and even Break 380's? Absolutely. Will it then lead to a cascade waterfall downwards to SPY 200?
No.
I think what may happen is that we have a capitulation candle, where all retail long call BTFD bros get slaughtered. I can definitely see a HUGE wick below the support line drawn, and then we may have a reversal back above into the falling wedge pattern. If the support line breaks, I foresee retail being forced to capitulate and buy puts at the lows (as retail always does.... which is to buy high and sell low). Once retail has bought puts at the lows, market will reverse upwards.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Be nimble.
Watch the 20sma.
Watch the FED course. Everything is dependent on the FED.
Hawkish behavior will lead to the inevitable decline.
Do NOT be a perma bull or a perma bear.
Respect the price action and ride it.
Best of luck traders.
Live updates on Twitter. If you have any questions, ask away :)
@seneslulz
SPY - Long the Market!-After a week full of war news and fear, we might be heading into a new week with some positive start!
-Before the "I do my macro analysis, and I don't agree, the market is going down" guy with a drained brokerage account steps in the comment section after his margin call, we would like to say that we feel bearish in mid-term. We feel like after all these SWIFT sanctions, frozen Russian billions and increasing swap rates, there definitely will be some real blood this year. And it looks like the blood will come after the recovery!
-So now that we have apologized from the "Macro Econ" guy, let's come back to the analysis and look into how we can make some $$$ on short-term. We see a possibility of a rise back to $450 levels and $470 afterward. Some weekly puts might be sold with an Iron Condor strategy in mind as you might need to sell calls at any moment given the volatility of the market.
-Enjoy the trades and don't forget to join us on our group link is in bio!