bullish butterfly pattern? retest of B leg?short term bullish to a retest of the b leg of the bullish butterfly pattern
Spylong
SPY HUGE FALLING WEDGE UPDATE *WARNING**WARNING: LOTS OF READING*
tldr; LONG TERM: This is bullish.
DO NOT mistake me for thinking that I am about to say below is saying we will crash all the way down to SPY 200.
Now... onto the post below...
From my previous update:
I was looking for a break of the falling wedge around the 448 level, but that obviously failed.
I was also looking for a bigger bounce from the EOM/BOM flows (yesterday and today) into the higher end range of this falling wedge. Neither of those happened.
Clarification:
When I mention EOM/BOM flows, I do NOT mean that markets will rocket. It's not as simple as that.
Rather, it is to say that the markets are propped up from too significant of a decline.
This applies to pretty much every month of the year where the cycle repeats ON AVERAGE:
-EOM (End of Month) and BOM (Beginning of month) flows support the market until Friday preceding OPEX week(market can move higher if there are two consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma during this period). Most recently in terms of market dynamics: the 20SMA is where market battles between bulls and bears happen the most. They try to claim the 20sma for their side.
*Any 2 consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma for the bulls during window of supportive strength can lead to even higher market prices.
*Any 2 consecutive closes below the 20sma (note nothing to do with STD for the downside) during window of supportive weakness can lead to lower market prices.
-VIXperation Wednesday (usually is when stage 1 of the unwinding of supportive flows begin). Depending on price action, this can have opposite effects. Usually, if this month is heavily hedged (via VIX calls, SPY puts) and price action isn't pushed to the downside, then those contracts will expire worthless and MM delta neutral hedges will unwind, causing price to push to the upside because of short covering. If price action is already pushing toward the downside, price action can actually snowball more to the downside.
-OPEX Friday (stage 2 of unwinding of supportive flows). Similar to the above. Depends on price action and where contracts are placed.
-Week after OPEX Friday leading to EOM (stage 3 and the most critical). Supportive flows are not as present, meaning decline of price action is very much possible in this time period. Two consecutive daily closes below the 20SMA will lead to further decline.
Let's summarize end of February price action:
February VIXpiry Wednesday 02/16/22: Hedges unwound and we squeezed significantly to the upside. *Short covering rally/squeeze
February OPEX Friday 02/18/22: Unwinding of current contracts and hedges, led to significant decline to the downside.
February week after OPEX Tuesday 02/22/22- Thursday 02/24/22: SIGNIFICANT market decline into a sharp reversal on Thursday, leading to Friday and eventually this week EOM/BOM.
Yesterday and today, the supportive flows did NOT move us significantly higher. We haven't even reached the 20sma. Again, this period of supportive flows is where bulls have the opportunity to take control over the 20sma. They are failing to do so at the moment.
This is ominous for the bulls.
This supportive period ends effectively on 03/11-03/14 (start of opex week), so we have a lot of work to do.
Not to mention that in addition, we have FUTURES roll date on 03/10 (not going to get into that...), FOMC speakers, Biden SOTU, etc... things are not looking hot.
*Keep in mind that the big guys can front run the flows any which way, so the market structure above is NOT all-exhaustive.*
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What is my plan?
If you didn't know already.... I'm majorly bearish into March OPEX and even beyond. The reason I put downside targets of SPY 404 --> 398 , etc., is because I think that ultimately, we will trade there within the next couple months.
I am primarily cash while playing minor plays to the downside upon ANY rally to the upside. No rally thus far since January has been sustained. Every significant rally has been faded.
Primary position: 03/25/22 SPY 400p
Intra-day plays: Hedge with weekly calls to the upside to endure any squeezes to the upside. Take profit and sell at resistances.
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You have to function with the mindset that Mr. Market will do whatever it takes to F*ck the most amount of retail investors possible. That is why you will have extremely volatile swings to both the upside and the downside, while ultimately maintaining a downtrend.
Retail investors from 2020-2021 have been trained by the FED (due to unlimited liquidity) to just BTFD. You can NOT do that anymore. Please listen.
You have to be using VERY little leverage here because price can go against you in an instant.
You should be PRIMARILY cash.
You can play the downside, but put very little money to do so. Trust me, you don't need to put a lot of money in to reap a lot of rewards to playing the downside.
Can SPY Reach and even Break 380's? Absolutely. Will it then lead to a cascade waterfall downwards to SPY 200?
No.
I think what may happen is that we have a capitulation candle, where all retail long call BTFD bros get slaughtered. I can definitely see a HUGE wick below the support line drawn, and then we may have a reversal back above into the falling wedge pattern. If the support line breaks, I foresee retail being forced to capitulate and buy puts at the lows (as retail always does.... which is to buy high and sell low). Once retail has bought puts at the lows, market will reverse upwards.
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Be nimble.
Watch the 20sma.
Watch the FED course. Everything is dependent on the FED.
Hawkish behavior will lead to the inevitable decline.
Do NOT be a perma bull or a perma bear.
Respect the price action and ride it.
Best of luck traders.
Live updates on Twitter. If you have any questions, ask away :)
@seneslulz
Too LowThe lines don't lie, they point to September 2021, I believe the market will go up based on the chart passing key points in January 2022, I think it is a good time to buy.
SPY - Long the Market!-After a week full of war news and fear, we might be heading into a new week with some positive start!
-Before the "I do my macro analysis, and I don't agree, the market is going down" guy with a drained brokerage account steps in the comment section after his margin call, we would like to say that we feel bearish in mid-term. We feel like after all these SWIFT sanctions, frozen Russian billions and increasing swap rates, there definitely will be some real blood this year. And it looks like the blood will come after the recovery!
-So now that we have apologized from the "Macro Econ" guy, let's come back to the analysis and look into how we can make some $$$ on short-term. We see a possibility of a rise back to $450 levels and $470 afterward. Some weekly puts might be sold with an Iron Condor strategy in mind as you might need to sell calls at any moment given the volatility of the market.
-Enjoy the trades and don't forget to join us on our group link is in bio!
SPY S&P 500 ETF W-Shaped Recovery The SPY S&P 500 ETF wend down after the huge amount of puts that i noticed last week:
Now i am considering a W-Shaped Recovery to $470 by the end of Q2.
The Ukraine invasion was price in at $410 and the interest rates will be lower than expected due to the war.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Short Term Bottom Is INThe short term bottom is in for the markets. Bullish divergence patterns for RSI and MACD. Barring any insane Ukraine news and oil continues to flow expect it to be bullish.
SPY bounce at 400Ok so the SPY has gotten through the choppy area of the 420s. Now, there are no major supports before it gets to 400. On the chart I drew out 3 possible scenarios, or ways I'm looking for the market to start a bounce at 400. The first one is if we trade down to 400 during the day, especially early in the day, I'd look for the bounce later in that day. The second possibility is if the SPY sells down into close but we are not at 400 yet, and then the SPY opens below 400; BUY THAT OPEN!!!! The last possible I'm look for is if the SPY just sells down into close for the day, getting below 400; it will probably go through that level with relative ease. Don't know what day this will play out but looks like it will be soon, like within a week; but I would not look to play the bullish bounce with options less than a week to expiration. And the reason why, is the last thing I will caution you with, watch out for scenario 1 turning into scenario 3. Where we get below the 400 point level early one day, start bouncing, and then the end of day start selling off and make a new daily low going into the close. That's why you want to give yourself a little bit of time on the options. I'm going on vacation, so if it happens while I'm gone I wanted to give you what I was, am, looking for. I do have take profit stops at those level but if it does it while I'm gone I might not get into bullish positions. Good luck and make that money.
$SPY 1Hour Potential Bounce Play 2/24/21Spy currently hit it's previous low from January around $420.59 and has surpassed that in extended hours on 2/23.
What are your thoughts?
Thanks,
Kelly
SPY: Bottom at 400-405Hello traders, here is my analysis for the SPY. Looks like a WXY correction to me. There is a gap that needs to be filled at SPY 400, and I believe that we will do this. Also, at that point W=Y, so it will be a beautiful symmetrical correction. Good luck traders.
$SPYThe investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPY Long after a small consolidation (ideally a consolidation at this KL, but the market is too volatile so we might get a push right on Tuesday) we will uptrend:
1) engulfing candle on 4h chart
2) doji candle on 4h chart
3) major KL 430s area (res to supp)
note: market is tanking and is in need on a little push before major pull (FED Meetings and the rest... ugh something to be done I guess)
TP: estimate to MA50 + KL 442 areas
*not an ideal entry presented yet, needs a closer to 430s area for a given SL under 430. However if it will show signs of uptrend the the entry might be presented at 436 with close in SL.
Must look for headlines about the date of Russian invasion on Ukraine and Biden's speech making poor SPY into bleeding
(for some reason it feels all this headlines so empty and artificial... hmmm wont say it, okay I will: they manipulate the market on purpose!
- oh, what? - not a secret? - sigh lol
Also note: I do this because I am forced by tradingview lol
SPY 4hr chart analysisPotential formation of bullish Gartley on 4hr chart.
$430-425 green box is a potential support area where I expect buyers to come in.
It will also initiate the completion of wave 2 and beginning of wave 3.
SPY bearish options todayI was monitoring the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ETF) options market and the puts are dominating the options today.
2/3 puts, 1/3 calls and some important dark pool prints sells.
My expectation is for a retracement at the $422 area, followed by a W shaped recovery.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
S and pShiller P/E ratio is over extended and has broke a major resistance currently forming a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly time frame l believe we will retest around 454 short term forming a symmetrical triangle and then start to short around April
Spy price prediction The market is experiencing a deep correction due to the uncertainty of the corona, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the increase in the interest rate of the Federal Reserve do not so much help the market to rise again to say the least
In my opinion the all-time high will be in the end, it will not be as fast as it did in the crisis at the beginning of the Corona, I think the market will go aside for a long time because of uncertainty and inflation but will slowly rise as it does in any health or political crisis to this day
This year will end NEGATIVE in S&P but NOT BEFORE we see ATHs!However, I see a 15% rise to ATH in the S&P 500 FROM HERE! SEPT '22 P Target.
Let's see how this plays out. First half of 2022 will see a 15% rise from here regaining previous ATHs into SEPT 2022. From this point I see a capitulation candle (-23%) ENDING THE YEAR NEGATIVE.
This is my 2022 forecast for the SPX.
2024 will mark a brand new Bull market.
SPY Stock Analysis - Day Short Term Bullish Pull Back Feb 15thTraderMan PennyPorkChop looks out for opportunity to survey and examine the latest value activity in the market in a way that makes it helpful to you.
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SPY Stock Analysis - S&P 500 SPDR ETF Stock Price Prediction for Tomorrow.
February
We go over the SPY stock - S&P 500 SPDR ETF stock, and give our stock price prediction on the SPY stock, our SPY stock price analysis, and stock price forecast on SPY for tomorrow TUESday February .
SPY STOCK: THIS IS A Bitcoin STOCK PRICE PREDICTION, SPY STOCK PRICE ANALYSIS, AND A SPY STOCK PRICE FORECAST VIDEO.
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BEARISH ALT COUNT DIA I HAVE JUST SOLD out of All long calls and now moved to a 100 %net short based on this wave structure . moved into sept 365 dia puts at 26.25 .If this count is what it is then we should not see the dow break the low of jan 27 and this would take the sp and qqq to new lows sp 4138/3980 qqq 321/316
2022 | The Year Of Wild Swings but a BIG Payoff? QQQ/SPYHey Everyone, in this video we discuss the large swings we expect for 2022 and what might be setting up for the next few quarters on the stock market.
BEAUTIFUL Cup and HAndle on SPYWell, looking at ES on a 30 minute time frame, right off the bat I see a nice Cup n Handle forming. Where right now we are forming the handle and are looking for a strong breakout to the upside. If this can hold valid, im expecting ATLEAST 4763 on ES. I think that is about 484 on SPY. We will atleast see a nice gap fill to 465 (labeled in the yellow box) That is probably the best bullish sentiment I see right now for SPY/ES this week!
S&P500 , spy&P500 US Market Index..
Struggling to survive!
It is worth noting that the movement of Bitcoin recently "according to my opinion"
She has become very sensitive to the movement of this indicator, especially in the recent times.
All eyes are on the market opening tomorrow .
The bottom is NOT in on SPYSPY appears to be in an ending diagonal, like many other stocks, including AMD. I expect this to resolve with a double-bottom or a slightly lower low by February 18. After that, SPY will be set to set new ATHs.
$SPYFund Summary
The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the âPortfolioâ), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
