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US Market Technicals Ahead (15 November – 19 November 2021)As U.S. inflation has surged to the highest level in over thirty years, inflation is likely to remain in focus in the coming week with investors looking ahead to the latest U.S. monthly retail sales figures along with earnings results from major retailers, including $WMT (Walmart). With $SPX (S&P 500) erasing its weekly losses from Friday’s late week rally, the bearish Rising Wedge formation of $RSP (S&P 500 equal weight) remains in play. Attention has being turned towards small-cap companies after a nine month consolidation breakout on $IWM (Russell 2000), setting a potential new leg of multi month long market rally leading by this companies. It is worth to note that $GLD (Gold) have also broken out of a multi month long trendline resistance, gaining +2.71% as the leading asset class of the week. China will provide an update on the economic recovery via industrial production and retail sales and wide there are expectation for a slowdown in its economic recovery, just as Europe is experiencing a fresh surge in Covid-19 infections. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. Market Technicals $SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) The benchmark index $SPX retraced with a weekly loss of -0.31% (-14.68 points) confirming last week’s highlight on the over-extension of this rally which was 200% ATR away from its short term moving average, the first time since September 2020. With $SPX reducing its intraweek losses with Friday’s +0.72% gain, it is worth to note that $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) has yet to break its Bearish Wedge Formation, which was has already played out in $SPX. The upwards consolidation of $RSP may be reflecting signs of fatigue, signaling downside potential of $SPX in near term. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,645 level, a break of its short term pivotal level. U.S. retail sales The highlight of the week’s economic calendar will be October retail sales data, due out on Tuesday, with economists expecting an increase of 1.1%, after a 0.7% rise in September. U.S. inflation has surged to the highest level in over thirty years amid a global supply chain crunch and data on Friday showed that consumer sentiment fell to its lowest in a decade this month, as higher prices eroded living standards. Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates sooner than currently indicated to stop inflation spiraling upward. Retail earnings Third quarter earnings season is continuing to wind down, but investors will get an additional update on the strength of consumer spending this week with results from major retailers, including Home Depot ($HD), Walmart ($WMT), Target ($TGT), and Macy’s ($M). The earnings reports will face extra scrutiny ahead of the start of the holiday shopping season, with investors looking at guidance from retailers to determine whether inflation will eat into profits or be passed on to consumers. Third quarter earnings season has largely been upbeat. 459 of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported with 80% of earnings results beating analysts’ forecasts. China slowdown The recovery in the world’s number two economy is weakening and data on Monday, which includes reports on retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial production is expected to confirm this. The loss of momentum in China, a key driver of global growth, is casting a shadow over the uneven global economic recovery from the pandemic. The recovery in China has been hit by an aggressive approach to containing Covid-19 outbreaks, a massive debt crisis in the country’s real estate sector and an energy crunch that has weighed on manufacturing activity. Analysts think the country’s central bank is likely to take a cautious approach to loosening monetary policy to bolster the economy as slowing growth combined with soaring inflation fuel concerns over stagflation. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden is to hold a virtual meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Monday, amid rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Pandemic resurgence hits Europe Europe is seeing a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic, adding to headwinds for the region’s already fragile economic recovery. Europe accounts for more than half of the average 7-day infections globally and about half of latest deaths, according to data compiled by Reuters, the highest levels since April last year when the virus was at its initial peak in Italy. Several countries, including the Netherlands, Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic are implementing restrictions or planning fresh measures to slow the spread. Holland entered a three-week partial lockdown on Saturday, the first in Western Europe since the summer. Germany reintroduced free Covid-19 tests on Saturday and Austria is to decide on Sunday whether to impose a lockdown on people who are not vaccinated.
SP:SPX
by jfsrevg
ES1! / S&P500 / LONG / The Market Has Taken it's BreadthThe market has taken it's breadth, and we move ONWARD! Multiple Bullish signals present for the upcoming trading week. -Daily Candle closed above the 50day MA -Classic inverted H&S Pattern -Profit Target 1: set at 4528.75, this level holds confluence with resistance + prior trend line. -Profit Target 2: set at 4596.50, this is the price target of the inverted H&S pattern. This trade will probably play out in 2 separate trades, I have entered at $4460, stop loss set at 4450. I will hold these contracts until PROFIT TARGET 1 is met, selling at that level and watching it closely to see if it can break resistance. IF resistance is broken, I will enter again and aim for PROFIT TARGET 2, selling there. Profit Target 2 may be adjusted based off the price action I see after resistance is broken, but for the time being that's where it's set. WHEN THE MARKET IS GIVING CLEAR SIGNS, LEAVE IT SIMPLE. THERE IS NO NEED FOR AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by GeneticHustle
Inverse head and shoulders pattern developingYesterday’s rally in the $SPY confirms our hypothesis that the overall market looks like an inverse head and shoulders with the neckline at 440. The measured move if confirmed would take us above the all time high. We are cautiously bullish for the end of the year as seasonality is in our favor. Major headwinds such as inflation, treasury yields, chip and labour shortages will continue to play a role, but seem to have been priced in for now.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Eclubtrading
SPY Bullish CaseWe all know what they do best - print like there is no tomorrow. If 430 level hold and is bought, we will get out rally. Every guru and their subs are long to their teeth. There is cash on the sidelines. If that cash sees this as a double bottom buy the dip opportunity - to the moon we go. If this dip is not bought, look out below. 2hr shows a death cross (when 50MA crosses 200MA), 3hr is approaching a cross. 4 hr looks like a double bottom. Daily we are sitting pretty on 50MA. Short term time frames dont matter as much as long term timeframes. I am still eyeing 410-420 level but will change my mind if I see aggressive buying action today. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking buttons and making decisions for yourself. Today will not matter so stop trading and pick long term strategies, use intraday activity to help your conviction.
AMEX:SPY
by bossmodetrader
SPX S&P500 SPY Weekly Prediction/Historical Correction AnalysisIn this weekly analysis, I noticed a similarity in the market correction of the 2nd and 3rd week of May 2021 to the current environment. As we can see from the chart, in May, the market first dropped below the support level of an ascending channel which then transformed itself into a resistance level. In the following weeks the index traded in the ascending parallel channel just below the previous support line. I expect a similar behavior this week. In this regard, the market should first pull back to the 4365-4375 area and then recover up to the dashed resistance level. After that, I expect the index to trade in the dashed ascending channel in the upcoming weeks. Trading idea: Bearish vertical call spread. Short strike 4510 / Long strike 4515, Expiration Oct 1st 2021 for a credit of about $0.55 vs a collateral of $4.45 which corresponds to a 0.10 delta trade (about 90% probability of success) and an expected ROI of 12.36%.
SP:SPX
by CucabarraTrading