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US Market Technicals Ahead (11 Jan – 15 Jan 2021)Market will likely be focusing on the prospects for a bigger stimulus package after Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for the first time in eight months in December amid a resurgence of Covid-19 infections. A further snapshot of how the economy is performing will be presented with upcoming Friday’s release of data on inflation and retail sales. Additionally, earnings season will get underway with major US banks set to release fourth quarter earnings results on Friday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continued with a 3rd consecutive week of rally, closing with a modest gain of +1.83% (68.6 points) for the opening week of 2021. This rally have continued to establish a new all time high level at 3,826 points, also breaking out of a 9 weeks trend channel congestion that was highlighted over the weeks. With plenty of eutrophic moves in highly speculative themes over the past weeks (i.e. Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin, Alternative Energy and Biotechnology), there were observation that some of the previously market-leading mega cap companies are not in participation of the week’s rally. Several of the higher profile companies, particularly the FAANG, remain either in a consolidated triangle chart pattern, or a box ranged rectangular chart pattern. Additionally, $SPX traded lower on the first two days of the year, with the month long highest sessional volume observed on Tuesday alone. At the current junction, the 20DMA have been nicely supporting $SPX in rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. There is also a significant pick up in trading volume since the start of 2021, and it is imminent for market volatility to further uptick towards a 50 points ATR14 range within the next two weeks. The immediate support to watch for any potential weaknesses is at 3,780 level, a confirmation retracement for Friday’s Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus hopes Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, despite data showing the U.S. economy suffered its first net loss of jobs in eight months in December, after Biden said his economic relief package will be in the trillions of dollars. Biden said his administration’s economic package will also include unemployment insurance and rent forbearance. The package is due to be unveiled on Thursday. 2. Economic data, Fed speakers The U.S. is due to release data on consumer price inflation on Wednesday, while retail sales figures for December are due out on Friday. Inflation is expected to tick slightly higher, but remain subdued, while retail sales are expected to have been dampened by the surging virus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak on Thursday. The U.S. central bank has indicated that interest rates will remain on hold near zero through at least 2023 and said the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. 3. Banks kick off earnings Big banks will kick off the U.S. corporate earnings season in earnest with JPMorgan (NYSE: $JPM), Citigroup (NYSE :$C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: $WFC) posting fourth-quarter results on Friday – the first S&P 500 companies to report for the last quarter of coronavirus-stricken 2020. Some investors expect company earnings and economic data to play a greater role in moving stock prices this year.
ULong
by jfsrevg
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (4 Jan – 8 Jan 2021)Markets will face their first major challenge of 2021 as the rapid spread of a new, more contagious coronavirus strain means that economic gains could still be a way off. The December jobs report on upcoming Friday could show that the pace of hiring is slowing down amid renewed pandemic-related restrictions on businesses. Meanwhile, energy traders will be turning their attention to Monday’s OPEC+ meeting where another output boost is on the agenda. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) rallied with a modest gain of +1.43% (53 points) during the final week of 2020, closing at an all time high of 3,756. At the current junction, $SPX price action remains within the tight 3% trend channel range highlighted; and there will be expectation of a minor correction in the upcoming week in technical perspective, with $SPX trading near the upper bound resistance of its trend channel. Additionally, a short term price-volume bearish divergence is also been observed.  The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, a break of the lower trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Vaccine rollout With U.S. case numbers surging and vaccinations proceeding more slowly than projected Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to enlist veterinarians and combat medics to give out coronavirus vaccinations. While the U.S. has approved two vaccines, rollout is going more slowly than the government hoped. About 2.8 million Americans received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, falling far short of a 20 million target. The U.S. is averaging 186,000 cases a day, down from a peak in mid-December of over 218,000 new infections each day. Health officials have warned that cases will likely spike again after holiday gatherings. 2. December jobs report The first major U.S. data point of 2021 will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers, which could show a loss of momentum in the labor market. November data already indicated the employment market was losing steam, with 245,000 new jobs added, the fewest in six months. For December, expectations are for an even smaller 100,000 gain. 3. OPEC+ to debate supply vs. demand The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia are to hold a virtual meeting on Monday. Oil prices ended December with gains in a positive end to a year that saw U.S. futures turn negative for the first time ever in April. In December OPEC+ held back from plans to boost output by 2 million barrels per day after implementing a record 7.7 million bpd supply cut earlier in the year to shore up prices. Instead, it increased output by 500,000 bpd and agreed that additional monthly adjustments would not exceed that amount. Russia has indicated that it will support another 500,000 bpd production increase from February, despite concerns from others in the group that it is still too early.
UShort
by jfsrevg
Must have hedge in every portfolio SPXS I cannot stress the importance of having this must have inverse ETF in your portfolio during these uncertain times. I have lost faith in believing anything I see or hear after living through 2020. I do not trust the news, data, markets, govt, etc. after going through the biggest fuck fest of my lifetime. This year I learned everything there was to learn about my personality through trading. Trading exposes all of your weaknesses and strengths. It also exposes all of your bullshit and allows you to learn to change your very strong beliefs that market doesn't give a fuck about. Charts also expose all of the bullshit about markets. Divergence (bearish or bullish) is usually a bullshit-expose-barometer for me personally. This chart is probably the biggest mindfuck I had pleasure looking at this past months. If I saw this MAGA bullish divergence on any other stock, I would be buying this stock with all of my ammo and I'd throw a kitchen sink at it. However, with Jerry at the driving wheel - I have no idea what this will do next but I wish Jerry and the gang a Happy New Year and I hope that demogorgon doesnt get his ass and doesnt drag him into the upside down cause Jim Hopper aint coming for his ass. All I am trying to say - keep this one on your radar. For those not familiar with this ETF, copy pasting it from Google: "SPXS is an extremely aggressive bet against the S&P 500, promising to provide -300% of the index's return for a one-day period. The fund, like most geared inverse products, is designed to deliver its 3x inverse exposure to the S&P 500—a cap-weighted basket of 500 of the largest firms in the U.S.—for one trading day." Happy New Year Fellas! PS: always do your own research, dont listen to pajama pants traders online.
AMEX:SPXS
by bossmodetrader
8
SPY about to move with Tesla inclusion and Stimulus I spotted a dragon fly doji followed by all-time highs. I drew an idea of potential price movement in a downward move. The $371 mark is clearly a resistance and it is funneling into a wedge. If it breaks 371$ we could see some price movement to the upside. With the tesla inclusion starting over the next 3 trading days we could see some downward movement. The index has to spend money to buy up shares of tesla. In the Yahoo inclusion to the S&P we saw a dip in the SPY during that event. With the world in chaos while the market is high on hopes of stimulus we can go either way. All I know is there should be a significant move here shortly. Give me your thoughts in the comments below.
AMEX:SPY
by wesbrown4050
4
SPY Holding Up During Holidays? Happy Holidays! After seeing the AMEX:SPY hit ATH last week, some wonder if the flame has just been lit or if it's being put out. Will the market hold strong into the New Years' or will it start a correction as Biden makes his way into office. Right off the bat, I see a few key levels to watch starting with $363.22 as Monthly support and $365.73 as weekly. We should also watch $369.84 and $371.05 as weekly resistance. As the vaccine is distributed nationally and globally, we could aim to expect a continuation up that is unless we see negative news about this pandemic or vaccine. We also need to remember that Biden will be making his transition into the White House on January 20th, 2021. God Bless America
AMEX:SPY
by DotcomJack
3
DOW Trading Under ATH | New Years WedgeAfter seeing the DOW hit ATH last week, it looks like it could continue sideways for the next week or so as we approach the holiday season. I'm watching $29,820 as weekly support and $29568 as Monthly support. Looking toward the upside, we've tested the $30,325 range as ATH twice in the last week, confirming it as a strong level of resistance. I'll be watching this wedge moving into the week as we watch for a breakout. As the vaccine is distributed nationally and globally, we could aim to expect a continuation up that is unless we see negative news about this pandemic or vaccine. We also need to remember that Biden will be making his transition into the White House on January 20th, 2021. God Bless America
TVC:DJILong
by DotcomJack
3
Interesting theory on SPY: possible ST short?Bear case (just a theory): If we take a look at time and space on this daily chart, 25 bars (35 days) for the trough-peak-trough before the election. If we take the FDA talk on the vaccine for the same whatever reason, I believe there is a possible downside of ~9% until Dec 9th, a trough-peak-trough total of 29 bars (36 days). - Yellow trend line act as support. - Volume has been a downtrend. - The two overheard white trendlines represent a strong resistance on the daily and weekly charts. (candles move easier towards less resistance direction) - Technically only tested bottom support twice (red shadow or yellow trendline), possibly the third time? - Small rsi divergence on weekly. Bull case: Priced in. Spy looking to break overheard trendlines or move closely with it. - Tested the overhead trendlines three times with the last retest completed, possibly going higher. (green arrow) - Options pricing in more downward risks but not so much upside risk. (this is normal due to the nature of hedging) pasteboard.co - For educational purpose: www.tastytrade.com - Some of the macros: 10yr yield steady uptrend, low vix, gold downtrend, dollar going for new low since march. Just a theory, will keep my longs on, may just short with an option contract or two to defend downside risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by dannycc24