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Spylong

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) Price for the futures has been consolidating above the previous high, from the current fall we experienced after the very tall COVID-19 rebound. A much needed pullback was needed considering we came off the bottom of March extremely fast. We are still in an overall uptrend, confirming that with price not falling below the $300 level with the pullback and staying above, with a fake-out towards the end of the fall. Overall a uptrend is still intact, this simply could mean a dip. Staying above the previous high with current fundamentals in tact; NY started phase 1 reopening, China said it would start to be the biggest buying in soybeans again (Trade Deal), higher consumer sentiment and spending gradually increasing along with jobs slowly coming back is all progress forward. The jobs number won't immediately go back to where they were quickly, that major factor has been priced into the market. I believe all funds and major players are aware they wont come back as fast but doesn't mean we aren't making positive growth. Currently the dollar is getting extremely hurt from this but is inversely related to the growth of the S&P. A ton of money was being pumped into the economy all over the world mostly in USD or debt that was formed to USD. The Euro of course has followed the exact path of the market and has been booming. All countries invest between each other within their respected Treasuries. Seeing the central banks are inside the Treasury, makes sense the banks are then in control of investments coming into the country and vice versa as we invest in other countries through bond offerings.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by hunnndini
HOLD THE PHONE... ES to 4000+ by November ???In short, I am no longer short. The recent additional QE measures and absurd position of the Fed to continue to expand it's balance sheet with no regard of the consequences tell me a few things. A. The fed and talking heads know that they have pretty much convinced THE HERD that blowing a bubble inside of a bubble is not only logical, it's our saving grace. B. That this will end badly but, not yet. If you look back to the '29 crash that was also fueled by a careless debt-fueled cycle, you will see that prior to the main collapse, there was one last blow the top off-pump... That is what I believe began on March 23rd and will continue through the election. Nothing that has happened this year has been a surprise to the powerful elite. The real Bull/Bear battle here is political in nature, nothing maters but staying in control. I believe we are in an impulse 5 wave and will break ATH in the ES in the next 5 weeks. We are collecting under the top end of the all-important megaphone pattern and I believe we are about to breakthrough. After reaching ATH, matching the NASDAQ's pattern, then we will get a nice retracement to the top side of the megaphone pattern. From there a weaker and potentially very powerful bearish pattern. Perhaps a H&S pattern like BOEING's chart prior to the Feb breakdown. If Trump loses the market, he loses his base and the election. Therefore, there is nothing this "team" won't do to keep the party going for another few months. They have made that very clear and it's only 20 weeks away. I can see it now... Donny loses the election with markets at ATH's. like 4150 in the ES. Crazy numbers... He waves goodbye and signs his name on the V shape recovery he promised. Then, with the country in Biden/China's hands, we will see the epic collapse of our bloated state. 156% valuations to GPD might look small by November. ... or maybe we get rejected here and tumble, however, last I checked the money machine is still working. Food for thought or comment: What would happen if Biden wins and tries to clawback corporate tax cutes? Can he do that? What if the US's credit rating is downgraded internationally? What happens if we are no longer the reserve currency?
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Andimolz_
1
Support is at 280 ish SPY SPXThe 14% pullback projection seen in the above is derived from the ratio of change seen in 2018. This thesis is based on the following: If 2018 was the beginning of a megaphone type corrective move, then the % change will be of greater magnitude; however, the ratio's expressed as % change should be statistically similar. During the corrective moves in 2018, we saw; first, a 20% decline followed by a 25% rally followed by a 7% retracement. Today, we have experienced a 35% decline, followed by a 47.5% rally. Is there going to be a Pull Back? Yes, we have seen that this week. How large of a pullback from recent highs will it be? My expectation; 14%. 20% to 35% is a ratio of 1.75, while 25% to 47.5% is a ratio of 1.85. So, if this corrective move is in similar terms to what happened in 2018 in terms of MATH, then I expect a total pullback of around 13.7% - 14.85% from recent highs. Will we retest lows? No, I do not believe so. 14% off of recent highs is around 282 - 280. Coincidentally, this is right near the 700sma red line. Please note this will probably happen after quadruple witching next week. *Just some guy/girl/they 's thoughts* Cheers -Andimolz //Logic Reference slow_sma = sma(src, 700) fast_sma = sma(src, 14) standard_sma = sma(src, 90) //slow_ema = ema(src, 700) //fast_ema = ema(src, 14) standard_ema = ema(src, 90)
SP:SPX
by Andimolz_
VIX & S&P500 Index (SPX) Bullish SentimentHey guys. My analysis on why VIX had to go green today. Normally, SPX has been trading in a steady trend, not upsetting the VIX and keeping VIX in a steady downtrend, while SPX stays green and VIX stays red. But on the daily VIX timeframe, you can see the gap that needs to be filled under $22.00 - and it will, soon. The next daily candle on VIX, if red, would have entered that last low $22.00 candle. This will take us back up to SPX ATH's and potentially double top and end this market rally for good. They don't want this to happen quite yet, so to not allow VIX to enter that $22.00 candle they NEED to create volatility - to the downside. I believe we will see a series of red SPX days to push VIX back into green territory and away from that $22.00 candle low, as that gap will signal the end of this bull run. They don't want that yet. Imo, anything under the $18.00 VIX can and will be the end of this bull market, at any time. Ideally, they'll drop the hammer at VIX $12 level, but that will ONLY mean new SPX ATH's of 3600-4000+, but stay with me here. VIX was at $16.00 - $17.00 levels when they decided to end the last bull run. If they take VIX back to $12.00 - $13.00 level we will need to see VIX drop by roughly 24%. If I take VIX $17.00 x 24% (.24), I get $4.08. $17.00 - $4.08 = $12.92 VIX (Roughly where I think the top could be). So taking that VIX price % (24%) and relating it to the ATH of SPX (3390), 3390 x 1.24 = a rough maximum of SPX 4203, or SPY $420. I see this maximum bull market lasting until no longer than the first or second week of August, maximum. -MoneyProphet on Twitter
SP:SPXLong
by MoneyProphet
4
SPY 4K. The bulls (FED) were right.Please do you DD and invest wisely. The market has broken all resistance to the upside since the last lows in March. The Fed clearly held the market up and seem to have held it up long enough to cause FOMO in retail investors. From a technical point, I think we are now headed to new all time high. I am predicting this will happen by November of this year so I will take my long positions carefully with aggressive stop loss going to November.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UnknownUnicorn3272672