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SPY - Quants based Long!Please refer my article below. I had shared some quants on how markets have behaved in the past in trading sessions before and after Jobless claims data being published Below are pointer and the feedback on the performance so far! 1.75% of the time ( 9 out of 12 times), SPY has given an average return of 0.7% 1 week prior to Jobless Claims data announcement date. If you bought on close of 7th Nov 2019 @ 308 , then till 14th Nov close 309.58, you would have made a positive return of 0.51% and held till close of 18th Nov, you would have a positive return of 1.24% 2. 5 out of 5 times in the past 3 years you would make positive returns (average of 0.9%) if you were to buy 2 days after the event date. If you were to buy on close of 15th Nov, held till end of day 18th, so far made about 0.18% 3. If you were to buy 1 week after the event, then 73% of the times (8 out of 11 times) you would make an average return of about 0.5% Now, this we will review on 21st November close f day to initiate the observation and see how it plays off If you see, if you had taken any of the first 2 trades so far, quant would have helped in the probabilistic trades. If you like what you see, please share a thumbs up and comments in the section below Cheers
AMEX:SPYLong
by LoveForCharts
SPY - LONG - Jobless claims data coming up (quants analysis)AMEX:SPY got into a uptrend on the weekly charts as indicated by higher highs and higher lows (marked with yellow zones).We have made a higher high again indicating continuation of uptrend At 289 levels we got the entry signal on the RSI and indicator has been holding on very well Since then, we have a nearly 7 pc move and looks good ahead, unless trend broken Any new entries can be timed by looking at lower time frames. on the retracement moves! Next Jobless claims are due on 14th November 2019. Over the lookbacl for last 3 years data, I am sharing some quants data below 1.75% of the time ( 9 out of 12 times), SPY has given an average return of 0.7% 1 week prior to Jobless Claims data announcement date. 2. 5 out of 5 times in the past 3 years you would make positive returns (average of 0.9%) if you were to buy 2 days after the event date. 3. If you were to buy 1 week after the event, then 73% of the times (8 out of 11 times) you would make an average return of about 0.5% Possible positive returns ahead from both loopback analysis as well as chart ideas If you like what you read, please share a thumbs up! Cheers Akhil
AMEX:SPYLong
by LoveForCharts
2
Something's not right here.The indicator on the bottom is called the cash in/cash out indicator and it's averaged over 100 periods. It indicates net selling since the first Jpow rate cut at the end of July. There has been net selling to the tune of a running sum of -124,924,564,001.and some change the past 100 trading days on SPY. But, we're now up another 8% from the lows of 10/08.. That's a divergence. It doesn't make sense. In order for there to be a healthy bull market/trend there needs to be the normal breathing of the security price. Trend, counter trend, trend, counter trend. Now it's never that simple but for something like the SPX to go on such a tear over the course of a month is not normal. Especially when you have net outflows on both SPY, and the QQQ. That means more people are getting out than in. But the market's going up, quick like. We're not trading on fundamentals or earning's. We're trading on fed fuel and headlines. Meaning the market is pricing in on hell of a deal, and expecting more QE if shit goes sideways (which they'll probably get). "As the central bank’s balance sheet has expanded, the S&P 500 has grown at almost the exact pace." "The results: a $175 billion expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.07 trillion, representing growth of 4.5% since the operations began. During that time, the S&P 500 has risen just shy of 4%." www.cnbc.com We're inflating a bubble. Again. If we don't have some sort of a correction or pullback shortly i'm expecting a blow off the top and it'll be fucking ugly.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
2
In For A Big Move SomewhereAs my previous posts may have shown, i'm not really a huge fan of this rally. We truly do live in the twilight zone right now and TA is being washed out by many different factors including news, QE that's not QE, rate cuts, tweets, hopium, etc. Technically we've been on this $23 rally on declining average volume, on massive RSI bearish divergences on every TF including the monthly, and up straight out of a half completed descending triangle. Now there's nothing stating this can't keep pumping from here but it seems like the China happy talk crack pipe got a little too hot the past couple days and we've stalled out. We've left multiple gaps down below, and that mixed with the low volume we had on the way up we could see this proverbial house of cards get blown down with a pretty small gust of wind. It seems like the futures traders are the ones who have been sending us higher and it seems like they've wanted to turn this over the past day or two. With the Bollinger Bands on the hourly tightening, which generally precedes a move in either direction, the market has been working off it's 'overboughtness' the past couple days. we could definitely just be bull flagging, but those gaps are like a nagging itch in the back of the markets head that needs to be scratched. Keep that in mind. Be wary and goodluck.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
1
I mean we do live in the twlight zoneAs everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these negative divergences and this entire pump has been on half volume. I did not play, nor even entertain the ascending triangle because it was only about 1% to the real resistance at the top of this ascending wedge around $305. And again, it was on half volume. R/R wasn't there. In my last post or a few posts ago i stated how it would be extra sketchy for us to break up out of the descending triangle prematurely due to unchecked negative divergences on the 1H-4H. Well, that's exactly what we did. Here in the next week few weeks one of two things is going to happen. 1.) We truly are in the twilight zone and all TA is essentially null and voided by rate cuts, QE that's not really QE, and just cheap and fast capital/leverage sending us on another leg up from here. Irrationality wins the day. 2.) The technicals end up playing out and we break downwards out of this wedge and make our way down to at least the 0.382 fib ($256) or roughly there abouts. That is also likely where the 200 period MA will be as well. BUT, weekly MACD just crossed, and RSI is breaking the downtrend. There needs to be a conviction break of the top of the ascending wedge on higher than average volume for me to start thinking differently. I don't buy this bullshit for one minute until we do. Until then i'm short SPY and long bonds. Top of the Bollinger is 305.31. Good luck.
AMEX:SPYShort
by merkd1904
1
I mean we do live in the twilight zone As everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these negative divergences and this entire pump has been on half volume. Here in the next week few weeks one of two things is going to happen. 1.) We truly are in the twilight zone and all TA is essentially null and voided by rate cuts, QE that's not really QE, and just cheap and fast capital/leverage sending us on another leg up from here. 2.) The technicals end up playing out and we break downwards out of this wedge and make our way down to at least the 0.382 fib ($2569) or roughly there abouts. That is also likely where the 200 period MA will be as well. BUT, weekly MACD just crossed, and RSI is breaking the downtrend. There needs to be a conviction break of the top of the ascending wedge on higher than average volume for me to start thinking differently. I don't buy this bullshit for one minute until we do. Until then i'm short SPY and long bonds. Top of the bollinger is 3059.
TVC:SPXShort
by merkd1904
1
Think this was a coincidence?Just out there to take your lunch money. In my last post i stated if we didn't let the price breath a little we'd correct more sharply as we haven't handled the negative divergences on this low volume pump. I can see two different scenarios overnight: White: We retrace the current -.35% print in futures overnight and into the A.M and push back up to the downtrend line of the descending triangle to be rejected and back down to the $297 level. Red: We open up blood red and either gap down, or knife right through the gap at $298 and the 50 period MA. Obviously anything can happen but when you have these low volume pumps with negative divergences the corrections are usually swift and relatively violent. The luster of these earnings "beats" seems like it's wearing off considering expectations were set so low. And on top of that you had some notable misses today with Texas Instruments and Mcdonalds.
AMEX:SPYShort
by merkd1904
3
For the upcoming weekJust charting out the upcoming week and a few possible scenarios i see playing out. The biggest addition to the chart is a descending triangle from the highs of our last rally and the highs set yesterday, and the up trend line from the August lows, through the most recent lows. This is a game changer IMO if it plays out. Red: We reverse from where we're at and retest the downtrend line. Pretty sure we'd get rejected as we haven't worked off all of that negative divergence yet. Yellow: We head down to fill the gaps at ~296 and 294 before converging with the medium term uptrend line and the .5 fib. and head back for the top of the triangle. If we break out with above average volume expect a test of $305. But if we get there with negative divergences and especially if we break out on negative divergences expect a retrace. We could also bounce off the downtrend line and then break through as well. Remember, this has to be with above average volume to be tradable in my opinion. this is what i (with bias of course) see as the most likely scenario technically in my limited knowledge. Blue: Some shit hits the fan and we knife through everything and down she goes. Green: We head all the way down to the intra month uptrend line (bottom of the descending triangle) and bounce, hitting the what would now be resistance around 292-294, reverse, and head downwards out of the triangle. White: We make it through all the gaps and .5 fib, hit the uptrend line, bounce, and head back towards the top of the triangle I know this is a lot but these are multiple scenarios i could see playing out over the course of the next week or two. By no means is this trading advice, just giving an opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
Plunge Protection Team's been hard at work all weekNoted in my futures chart i'm linking to this All week the PPT''s have been on defcon one and hard at work day and night in the futures and cash markets catching the price with a net (market buys) and then setting large buy walls to pump this thing up. That makes me hesitant to long just for the simple fact that at any given moment they can flip the switch on their algos or walkie talkie the 5 guys in a room and guess who'll be stuck holding the bag? I do give it to them, they're good at what they do. With that being said we did have the negative divergence and ascending wedge play out but reversed rather quickly for my liking, and then reversed again as everyone was closing out for the weekend. At this point my chart from yesterday is still in play and valid. I was surprised we reversed before we got to the gap (hence my commentary above) but we did get a trend line break, recapture with below average volume, and another trendline break with above average volume on the hourly. We also had better volume on the daily today with majority of it coming in on the two downward candles. Net net i'm not sure we're done with the selling just yet. This entire week has been a pump with little relative strength and low volume. Meaning if they wanted to flip the switch on us it'll knife right through all the gains of last week in a day or two. Keep that in mind. Regardless - my entire point is something's been funky/suspicious in the price action this entire week. I'd like to see us fill one or both of the gaps (one at ~296, the other ~294) before we make any meaningful move higher. I closed around $297.50/$297.25 but also reshorted going into the weekend. Remember Brexit will have a meaningful impact on markets Monday most likely and then it's going to be earnings front and center with a bunch of huge companies reporting. Should be fun.
AMEX:SPYShort
by merkd1904
I honestly don't know what to do with my handsToday was a little disappointing in my eyes as i thought we were going to have that bull flag pattern play out from the past few days. But instead of ripping higher we got goosed, reversed, filled the gap, and tried with a vengeance to regain the 3000 level on ES/SPX. The fight for 3000 is turning out to be pretty epic, there's a heavy bout of resistance here and what worries me is that there is still only 1/2 average volume printing. That tells me a couple things; lack of institutional buying, and lack of conviction. It also looked like there were a lot of people either exiting longs or filling shorts. "They" tried so hard to keep us from reversing at the end of the day on SPY/SPX/ES but it looks like this is running out of steam/getting compressed. There was a long period of consolidation yesterday into the futures last night and still got smacked in the head around 3005 this morning. As i noted in my last post we didn't take care of the negative divergences on the RSI. They're extremely pronounced on the hourly but wash out into the 4H and daily. I'd like to see a pullback out of the ascending wedge from the past few days back to the $296 level and then i'd feel comfortable shooting back up into the $302-$305 area. But right now this just feels like an algo pump and maybe even a bulltrap. If we do break $300 tomorrow and head to $302 i'd be looking for a sharp reversal. But, if my preferred scenario plays out and we pull back i'd expect support around $296 and if we end up knifing through it i'd expect us to head for the gap at $294. I did flip net short mid day today. Attempted to fill the gap*
AMEX:SPYShort
by merkd1904
Well this is interesting - within ATH striking distance/Fed pumpSo, after Friday being the newsapalooza it was i hope you jumped on that train. Between the Fed not doing QE (it's kinda QE), good news on the Brexit front (more today as well), and our "Phase 1" trade deal (which isn't anywhere near being inked) we rallied up past the breakdown candle high, only to be rejected from it. I know a lot of traders took a short position from there, but on the longer TF's it did look like a bullflag printing yesterday, and there weren't any negative signals to be found. Today we did finish above the breakdown candle high BUT with bearish divergences on the 1-4H TF's. A lot more pronounced on ES. Another thing that gives me concern for the bullcase is the lack of volume. That means lack of conviction. We were 1/2 avg volume both yesterday and today. The news is touting today's move as a "Great start to earnings season!" but in my opinion this is just a short squeeze or a bull trap until we can break that bearish divergence or get some conviction (volume pop). BUT, i can see this going to new ATH's just for the simple fact we're so close to it. There were sellers in the market today after some panic buying/short covering and if we do have any negative news it'll knife right through these past couple days back towards the $293 level. This tells me this is more of a Powell/Fed pump than any real optimism on the trade front besides people poking their heads out thinking there might be a cease fire. Without any bearish news or any large company completely wiffing on earnings this week we do have the possibility for a melt up/shot at new ATH's . But i do see us retracing at least a little bit before we get there. If we do head there straight from here it wouldn't be a bad idea to take an objective short position at whatever level you choose because those divergences will probably just get bigger. If we get above the $305 level which is the top of the channel, PARTICULARLY with a divergence break to the upside we're off to the races. But also keep in mind if we do get back to ATH's that decreases the likelihood of a more accommodation fed. This is for entertainment purposes/technical analysis only and is not to be construed as trading advice.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
1
Trump PumpLet's face it. The dude is a master at manipulating the markets and the markets eat it up. But regardless everything is pointing towards this "mini deal" and apparently that's enough good news for everyone to pop champagne and shoot for net ATH's. Today we opened right where we left off after a WILD night in the futures markets and sure enough we ran up to test the top of the symmetrical triangle channel. On SPX it's a lot more pronounced, i will post the chart below. Remember SPY price is still a little skewed from the dividend payout a couple weeks ago. The downtrend line acted as perfect resistance on SPX after multiple stabs at it. But honestly the hopium is extra strength right now and i think people are just looking for an excuse to send the market higher. Either we gap over the downtrend line in SPX and over the resistance at $294 and make a run back towards $300 or all these theatrics with this trade deal unravel before our eyes and we're back at $290/$2900 and honestly both are completely possible. At this point technicals are being washed out by the news flow, but also there aren't any negative divergences or anything to note a bearish case. You could have taken an objective short at the top of the symmetrical triangle for a scalp but with the way this market is right now i'm pretty sure everyone has PTSD. I do have resistance pegged at the $296 level where the intermediate uptrend line acted as resistance before and also have it pegged as resistance in general. Check out the SPX chart below to get a better idea of the downtrend resistance.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
5
Interesting last minute sell off. So we did end up gapping above and into the symmetrical triangle and testing the intermediate term trend line for majority of the day after grinding through it on a low volume/algo pump. It's almost as if everyone had to go collect their thoughts and lick their wounds after the past couple days. But after grinding higher most the day on half avg volume we had an interesting reversal in the last 15 minutes of trading that gave us a bearish engulfing on the hourly that landed smack dab on the trend line. That candle was also 2x the avg vol. Could have been everyone GTFO so they don't have to hold overnight. Also notice how we were radio silent on the trade front news wise besides Bloomberg's annonymous source this morning (5 AM EST) that said something that we already knew? (China's willing to do a watered down deal, buy ag products, shit like that. The manipulation is impressive sometimes.) And it's not like we had a shit ton of buyers today, it was just no one had any conviction on whether to buy or sell or are already positioned. Although it was a nice little short squeeze. What also kills me is we've seen this movie before - if we do end up getting a "trade truce" and "skinny deal" or a partial deal all it'd be is a replay of the G7 meeting in Japan and literally nothing gets done. But, the markets would use it as an excuse to rally and $310/$3100 here we come. I can see two different scenarios playing out overnight. Scenario 1. We stay bullish overnight barring any bearish catalysts and resume our low volume pumpage back to the $294 level until whispers about the meeting start coming to light. There is a downtrend line coming from the original break down candle (top of the symmetrical triangle) but i'm assuming people would want to go for the fat round number of $294. $2950 on ES. Scenario 2. Some institutional traders or Trump's team or whomever frontran us and that actually is a reversal candle and we gap down and head back to revisit $288 which i would not expect to hold a third time. This could also just be one big ass bear flag that just printed as well. But, at this point your guess is as good as mine. Let me know where you guys stand. Goodluck.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
Schizophrenic markets win the day againToday was another incredibly challenging day to trade intraday. The market wants to be bullish SO bad and honestly i thought we were going to turn there for a minute. But this schizophrenic news flow is whipsawing everyone left and right. I'm personally wearing this one with bad entries and overreactions to news. My target of $289 on SPY and $2900 on ES were ultimately hit even if we took the long way there. I can see us retesting the trend line i drew creating a symmetrical triangle after the market reversed, only to reverse again breaking down out of it. But i do still see it as valid. Either we'll retest that trendline in ES overnight and get rejected or we'll pass through it for a gap up and retest the neckline. Positive divergences on the 15m - 1H. I honestly don't know how anyone is still bullish but there were buyers out there today. We'll see if it bleeds into tomorrow.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
What a day - Rejection off of medium term trend line on hourlyEven though today's volume was below average it didn't feel like it. I haven't taken a whipsaw to the face like that in a minute. We failed to break through the medium term trend line and the last two hours finally got rejected off of it. In my last post i was expecting a retest of the neckline from the H&S but we ended up gapping over it only to be pushed off the trend line from Dec '18. The last two hourly candles are clearly reversal signals. I started the day short but stopped out at 2950.50 on ES, reentered at the rejection, only to be whipsawed by some fake news about the Chinese Commerce Ministry before i could even get my stops set. Caught the top of that candle and rode it all the way down till just now. Not holding any position overnight, the chop is real. I'm expecting us to come back and visit the $288 level on SPY and the $2900 level on ES. But i also foresee many more whipsaws in our future with what seems like the increasingly volatile news cycle both globally and domestically. Goodluck.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
Broken head and shoulders neck line, extremely oversold. Just noting that the violence of yesterday and today seems more pronounced than August's sell off. We blew right through the gaps at $291.06 and $288.92. That in itself should tell you this should not be played with. This is the proverbial freight train with no brakes. There strictly aren't any buyers. BUT with that being said we're extremely oversold on every TF besides the daily, which leads me to believe we could see a short cover rally today, and possibly some more follow through to the $282/200MA level tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a backtest of the neckline/trendline at the $290 level. I've been in and out of this the past two days on /ES and have had a net short position in SPY since we got back up to $300. Watch for the non farm payrolls number on friday, but until then there's no brakes on this thing and the negative news everywhere seemingly is adding to the velocity. Watch for the bounce, it will come eventually. First target is the $274 May low, and second target around the $262 level. Good luck.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904