Get started

Spylong

Bear Market Bottoms ExaminedSo many bulls and bears are stating their cases on social media as to whether or not a bottom is in so I thought I'd take some time today to examine what a daily bottoming process looks like using SPX. Standard & Poor's 500 was created in 1957 and since then it has gone through 9 bear markets (Defined as a GREATER THAN 20% decline on a CLOSING basis). 2022 will make 10 but at this point we do not know whether or not we have a bottom in place until we can break above the all time high of 4818.62 As you can see from the below charts, with the exception of Oct 1987; all the bottoms have large & steady "thrusts" IMMEDIATELY after the lows were made that held the following re-tracements IMMEDIATELY: .382 - 67% (6 out 9 bottoms- 2009, 2002, 1982, 1974,1966, 1962) .50 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-2020) .618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms- 1970) < .618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-1987) Our current bottom could NOT hold the .618 immediately after the low was made therefore it falls into the category of the 1987 exception/rare case. The strongest bull cases show a thrust and then hold of a .382 re-tracement. I'm using a very basic bar chart with black bars to cut down the noise of everything, inserting a Fib Re-tracement, drawing the immediate thrust and adding the number of trading days it took to get above the last lower high. June 1962 (Approx decline: 27%) Oct 1966 (Approx decline: 22%) May 1970 (Approx decline: 33%) Oct 1974 (Approx decline: 48%) Aug 1982 (Approx decline: 27%) Oct 1987 (Approx decline: 33%) Oct 2002 (Approx decline: 47%) March 2009 (Approx decline: 56%) March 2020 (Approx decline: 32%) After looking over all these bottoms I must say the bears do present a strong case that the bottom is not yet in place. IMO, the only similar chart from a bulls perspective is the May 1970 case as it does resemble the "look" of our current bottom however look at how long it took to get above the last lower high. I hope you enjoyed this post...at a minimum it gives me one post that goes back in time to look at the daily charts of all 9 SPX bear market bottoms to analyze the look and feel of a bear market bottom since they happen so infrequently!
SP:SPX
by Vixtine
86
Value Investing: STOCKS to watch in 2024Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 Welcome to 2024🥂🥳 After great feedback from the altcoin list, I'll be doing a series on top stocks to watch for 2024, all in one post for your convenience! Stocks I'll focus on include: 📢 Undervalued stocks 📢 Stocks with great upside potential 📢 New stocks to watch I'll keep adding/updating one by one to the bottom of this post, so make sure you bookmark and follow! 1) AMEX:PSIL The AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF (NYSE ticker: PSIL) invests in the emerging psychedelic drugs sector, offering exposure to those biotechnology, pharmaceutical and life sciences companies we see as leading the way in this nascent industry.
AMEX:PSILLong
by CryptoCheck-
2
Bullish Megaphone Backtest (Update)Please Do your DD as this is not a financial advice The CPI report came in hotter than expected but still seems to be going down now at 8.2 from the June Peak of 9.1. I am reminded at the depths of covid how everyone was negative and bearish but the few who bought then made a lot of gains. I am still cautiously optimistic that this is a back test of the bullish megaphone structure that I posted a while ago and will be looking to see how it holds. However if it doesn't hold this trend line we could be headed for a deeper recession. Looking at the Put call ratio, the Macd, the amount of stocks under the 200 MA, we could have bottomed or nearing the bottom. Please do your own research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BlackisKing
8
SPY leg higher?I think it's worth taking some risk here as the chart looks set up for a leg higher. Using the fib tools I'm targeting $482 - $486 / 1.618 It's already made a 50% retracement nearly to the dollar and tried to for an all time high. I believe SPY price will break that level and make another ATH. Volume is increasing although there is a lot of trading activity in the current range. It may not go straight to $482 but I think $475 will hold as support. If not then $472 will be in the cards and a sell-off could ensue. Past bull markets have gained 200% so it's not unreasonable for SPY to touch $500, especially while we have this momentum. If it doesn't happen now then I think there is less and less of a chance it happens in the first half of the year. I think we'll see $500 or $5000 SPX by February of this year.
AMEX:SPYLong
by DontSlamTheDoor
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Prediction for 2024This was my article about the SPY S&P 500 ETF price target for 2023:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/l6U1M9dJ-SPY-S-P-500-ETF-2023-Forecast-CPI-Report-Prediction/ I was bullish, but not enough! In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC opted to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at curbing elevated inflation. The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target. Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the SPY to approximately $430. Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior. Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the SPY will conclude the year on a bullish note. This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the SPY boasting a year-end price target of $540. The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the SPY to new heights by the close of 2024.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
The future of the SPYbased on fib pattern analysis i've been working on for around 2 years this is the beginning of a belief i can nail down the path of the future based on observations the next couple of months. on this chart timing is not accurate but the circles that hover over lines have some important factors to consider. all orange circles are possible retracements but none are guaranteed. on the flip side the green circles hover over lines that will be 100% achieved with the white line being the possible end of this bull run up. this will go to the end of the year and if i have timing right already which i don't claim to, look for spy 505ish by end of year. spoiler alert, at this point i have spy at 160 in two years but that's without enough info to make a real assessment. i am positive about the targets above and drew price levels so you have an idea. also drew a line at the highest point the spy has ever reached on that particular RSI indicator. my guess is we will be kissing it at the 505 or upper white line target whenever that is achieved by.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Gamma-Rat
1
S&P500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISAs for S&P500 the index retested 4586.00 zone which presented some buying, as far as the long term trend for S&P 500 is bullish I will remain so and look to find buying opportunites only if the index trade above level 4588.00, but if the index break the level 4588.00 I will remain bullish but for me to take the trade I will want the index to trade above 4588.0 but for short positionsI want to see the 4544.00 level take out which for now it seems impossible but, nothing is impossible in trading, my t.p for long position will be @4640.00, which is more of a swing trade.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by juniormoseki1