Small gambling put on the SPYJerome Powell gave good momentum in the market yesterday. I do not think this is enough to breakout of the bear trajectory. Market went emotional and soon reality will resurface. Inflation and interests are still high. Macro economics are not favourable. Money is still getting sucked out of the market. As time goes by, people have less money to invest because of higher prices. This is not really a pivot, interest rates are still expected to rise further. Maybe at a slower pace.. so what? Credit will still go more expensive. I went with a small gambling put on the SPY.
Spyput
SPY Week of Dec 4Hi Everyone. Still learning, and sharing first official chart drawn on TV. Hoping for thoughts / feedback :)
Based on 1 month, 1hr time frame, I created peak and trough trend lines w/ 5 general S/R.
Based on this, I would say SPY has some room for growth before reversal. I am basing this expectation on the not yet achieved 9/21 crossover, and that the RSI seems to be ready to go up for a short squeeze before reversal.
I would say SPY has room for growth early, to a peak around 365/365.5. I think cross over happens early in week, and will then reverse.
Based on the blue trend lines, even with more gap ups as SPY has had this month, I would Say this week, it will be confined between a high of 365.5 and a low slightly higher than 357.7.
I would want to trade this using a 12/7 362 P.
- Entry above 364
- TP at 361, and trimming size at every dollar lower thereafter. Expecting this to be a 20-30% profit on the contract.
- I think SPY bounces off support at 359/358.5, and would want to be out of trade before this.
- My stop would be if SPY closes above 365, as I think. Close above the upper trend line indicates upcoming gap up and continuation play.