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Comprehensive Technical Analysis: SPX 10-Minute ChartThis SPX 10-minute chart shows a clear intraday shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, accompanied by multiple technical signals. Let’s break down the analysis across different technical components: 1. Trend Analysis: Initial Downtrend: The session started with bearish momentum as indicated by Put Signals and declining price action. The lower lows created a brief bearish trend that ended with a strong reversal. Bullish Reversal: The reversal is confirmed by a series of Call Signals after a strong bullish breakout from the previous consolidation zone. The price broke above a significant resistance level around 5,731.94, leading to a steady uptrend. 2. Moving Averages: Short-Term Moving Average (Orange Line): This acts as immediate support during the bullish run. The price consistently stays above this line, indicating short-term bullish strength. The slope of the moving average is steep, reflecting increasing bullish momentum. Mid-Term Moving Average (Blue Line): Positioned further below, the blue moving average provides a broader support level. This indicates that the medium-term trend remains supportive of the upward move, showing a well-established bullish context. 3. Heikin Ashi Candles: Bullish Momentum: The Heikin Ashi candles display a strong bullish pattern with several consecutive yellow candles and minimal lower wicks, indicating reduced volatility on the downside. Temporary Pullback: A few red candles appear, marking brief consolidation but not a trend reversal. The continuation of yellow candles afterward confirms sustained bullish pressure. 4. Key Signals and Levels: Entry Long: A long entry signal is observed after the breakout around 5,731.94, which was an excellent point for entering the bullish trade. Exit Long: The Exit Long signal near 5,776.76 suggests taking profits after the bullish move. This level now serves as short-term resistance. Support Levels: Immediate Support: 5,755.43 – A pullback to this level would still align with the bullish structure as long as it holds. Major Support: 5,731.94 – This level marks the breakout point, acting as a strong floor for further bullish moves. 5. Volume and Momentum: Although volume is not displayed, typically such strong moves (as indicated by Heikin Ashi and moving averages) are accompanied by rising volume. Momentum: Bullish momentum remains high, supported by consistent upward price movement and the sustained hold above the moving averages. 6. Resistance and Future Outlook: Immediate Resistance: The price is facing resistance at 5,776.76. A break above this could open the path to higher levels, potentially testing psychological levels like 5,800. Continuation or Pullback: If the price breaks above 5,776, we can expect a continuation of the uptrend. However, a failure at this resistance might lead to a short-term pullback to 5,755 or even 5,731. Conclusion: The chart reflects a strong bullish reversal with clear signals of upward momentum. Traders should watch the 5,776 level for a breakout confirmation or potential pullback to the key support levels at 5,755 and 5,731. Maintaining the trend above the orange and blue moving averages will be crucial for sustained bullish movement.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
SPY: 2007 vs. 2024 Rate Cut CyclesEconomic Indicators Comparison (2007 vs. 2024): In both 2007 and 2024, several key economic indicators show notable similarities, suggesting the market faces comparable macroeconomic challenges: Unemployment Rate (September 2007: 4.7%; September 2024: 4.2%) US Inflation Rate YoY (September 2007: 2.5%; September 2024: 2.5%) US Housing Starts (September 2007: 1.238M; September 2024: 1.235M) US Leading Economic Activity (September 2007: 100.4; September 2024: 100.4) US Existing Home Sales (September 2007: 4.5M; September 2024: 3.95M) These parallels reinforce the notion that the 2024 market may experience similar stress as 2007 unless significant positive economic developments occur. Overview: The charts and additional data provided give a compelling comparison of two major market cycles: 2007 and 2024. Both cycles show striking similarities in market behavior, particularly surrounding the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We see a top in the S&P 500 (SPX) in July of both years, followed by corrections, recoveries, and rate cuts in September. 2007 Market Behavior: July 17, 2007 - SPX Tops: The S&P 500 peaked in mid-July 2007, reaching new highs as the economy, on the surface, seemed stable. -9.5% Correction: Shortly after the top, the market corrected, declining by 9.5% in response to growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis. Full Recovery: The market briefly recovered as investors expected the Federal Reserve to step in with supportive policies. September 18, 2007 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in September 2007, sparking optimism that monetary easing could prevent further economic deterioration. Market Collapse: Despite the rate cuts, the crisis deepened, leading to a full-scale market collapse as the global financial crisis unfolded. 2024 Market Behavior (So Far): July 17, 2024 - SPX Tops: Once again, we see the S&P 500 peak in mid-July 2024, a period marked by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. -8.6% Correction: Similar to 2007, the market corrected by 8.6%, driven by fears of a potential economic slowdown and the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments. Full Recovery: The market saw a brief recovery, as investors anticipated rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures. September 18, 2024 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates on September 18, 2024, echoing the 2007 scenario. However, whether the market will collapse, stabilize, or recover remains to be seen. Comparative Analysis: Topping Patterns: Both 2007 and 2024 show a clear topping pattern in July, followed by sharp corrections and subsequent rate cuts in September. This parallel highlights the cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy. Rate Cut Effects: Historically, the first rate cut has not always led to an immediate market recovery. In 2007, despite initial optimism, the market eventually collapsed as the underlying economic problems, specifically the subprime crisis, worsened. The question now is whether the 2024 market will follow the same path, especially considering ongoing inflation and potential economic stagnation. Key Observations: Corrections and Recoveries: Both markets experienced similar corrections post-top. The 8.6% correction in 2024 mirrors the 9.5% drop in 2007, showing that investor sentiment and market behavior can repeat under similar macroeconomic pressures. Rate Cut Timing: In both years, rate cuts followed periods of market instability, with the hope that monetary easing would stabilize the economy. However, uncertainty looms in 2024, as it is yet unclear whether these cuts will prevent a deeper recession or lead to further volatility. Potential for Market Collapse in 2024: While the 2007 market collapse was driven by the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2024 market faces different challenges, such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and evolving global trade dynamics. There remains a risk that the 2024 market could experience a sharp downturn if these issues worsen.
AMEX:SPYShort
by alcoholic-semen-thrower
SPY Daily Chart Analysis: Approaching Key Resistance at $564Looking at the SPY daily chart, the price has recovered well from its recent pullback and is now approaching a significant resistance level around $564. Key Levels: Resistance at $564: The green dashed line highlights this key resistance zone. SPY has tested this level multiple times, and we’re nearing another test. Each time the price approached this zone, it faced rejection, making it a critical level to break for continued upside. Support at $552.49: This is the immediate support zone, and it’s holding strong. Any pullback towards this level would be a natural correction but as long as we stay above it, the bulls remain in control. What I Expect: Potential Breakout: If SPY manages to break and hold above $564, we could see a significant rally, possibly testing higher resistance levels around $570. However, failure to break this resistance might lead to another pullback, with $552 acting as the first major support. Sideways Action: There’s also the chance that SPY could consolidate in the $552 - $564 range before making a decisive move in either direction. This would create a buildup of momentum before the next big breakout or breakdown. Final Thoughts: We’re at a critical juncture. If the bulls can push through $564, we might see a continuation of the larger uptrend. However, resistance here has been strong, so I’ll be watching closely for either a breakout or a rejection at this level. Stay cautious and watch for clear confirmation before making your move.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
SPY 5-Minute Chart Analysis Targeting Opening Range BreakoutLooking at the SPY 5-minute chart, we’re seeing some clear bearish signals after what seemed like a potential recovery. Let me walk you through the main things that stand out. What I’m Seeing: Resistance at $554.41: The price reached a high of $554.41 but failed to hold, showing clear rejection at this level. This resistance has become a key point, as each attempt to break above it has been met with selling pressure. Drop to $541.77: We’re now seeing a sharp decline, with the price currently sitting around $541.77. This steep drop indicates that the sellers have firmly taken control. Failed Support at $548: Earlier, $548 was providing some support, but once that level broke, it led to a cascade of selling down to the $541 - $542 zone. What I Expect: Further Downside: Given the current momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised if we test the $540.97 level soon. If this level breaks, we could see a deeper drop, potentially targeting the $540 psychological level or even lower. Potential Bounce: If buyers step in around this $541 zone, we might see a short-term bounce. But unless we reclaim $548, I’m not convinced that a reversal is coming. My Takeaway: Right now, the price action is heavily favouring the bears. The failed break above $554 and the sharp drop tell me to stay cautious. If I were trading, I’d lean towards short positions unless we see a strong reversal above $548. Let’s see how it unfolds!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Deno_Trading
S&P 500 ($SPY) COLLAPSE | Recession Alert!!Behold, devastation just up ahead. $2500 is probable in the S&P. Retirements are about to be wiped out. As a friendly reminder, the "401K is free money" narrative is going to evaporate. The media will soon be out in full force talking about: "stay the course" "remember your goals" "stay invested" "LFG" "buy the dip" So foolish. If you are trapped in a retirement fund (401K), the best thing you can do right now is get defensive. Sell ALL "growth stocks" and shift all of your wealth into cash and / or bonds. Be careful out there, everyone! Something major is happening on a global scale!
TVC:SPXShort
by ChiefMacro
9
Why ORB and VWAP Have a High Success Rate - Part 2Previously in the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). In Part 1, we dove into the basics and all the important aspects of the ORB, but now let's explore why these strategies often lead to high win rates. The Psychology Behind ORB The ORB is powerful because it captures the market's initial reaction to overnight news and pre-market sentiment. Think of it like the opening scene of a movie: it sets the tone for what’s to come. When the market breaks above or below this range, it’s like the plot thickening—traders jump in, driving momentum in that direction. This momentum is often self-reinforcing, leading to sustained moves that traders can capitalize on. VWAP: The Institutional Trader’s Compass VWAP, on the other hand, is not just another line on the chart. It's the line in the sand for many institutional traders. It represents the average price weighted by volume, and it’s where big players often aim to execute their trades to ensure they’re getting a fair deal. When the price is above VWAP, it’s a sign of strength; below, it signals weakness. This makes VWAP an anchor point for many strategies, creating natural support and resistance levels. The Power of Combining ORB and VWAP Now, let’s bring it all together. When you combine ORB and VWAP, you’re essentially stacking two powerful tools that capture both the early market sentiment and the equilibrium price level that institutional traders care about. For instance, if the price breaks out of the opening range and stays above VWAP, it’s like a green light signalling that the bulls are in control. On the other hand, if the price breaks down and stays below VWAP, the bears likely have the upper hand. The chart you're seeing is a perfect example of this dynamic. Notice how the price respects the VWAP and reacts strongly around the opening range levels. These reactions are not random—they’re the market’s way of telling us where the big players are positioning themselves. To Recap All These The high success rate of ORB and VWAP strategies isn’t just about the numbers; it’s about understanding market psychology and where the big money is flowing. By incorporating these tools into your trading, you’re aligning yourself with the natural rhythm of the market, increasing your chances of being on the winning side of the trade. This combination gives traders a structured approach to navigate the chaos of the markets, and when used consistently, it can lead to more reliable and profitable trades.
AMEX:SPY
by Deno_Trading
SPY 2-Hour Chart Analysis - August 28, 2024Double Trouble is the name of the game here, and it’s no joke. As you can see SPY just dipped below a critical support level, and things could get tricky if buyers don’t step in soon. What’s Happening? SPY has been bouncing around within a tight range for the past few days, but today’s action saw it break below the 554.93 support level (highlighted by the yellow dashed line). This level has been key in holding the price up, and now that it’s breached, we could be in for a rough ride. Why Double Trouble? Here I am referring to the fact that SPY is now stuck between two crucial zones: the broken support around 554.93 and the next significant support level down near 551.00. If the price falls to this lower support, we could see even more downward pressure, potentially leading to a deeper sell-off. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: Look for potential resistance to form around the 554.93 level now that it’s broken. If SPY can reclaim this level, it might signal a reversal, but if not, the bears could stay in control. Support: The next big support is down near 551.00. If SPY continues to fall, this is the level that needs to hold to prevent further losses. What’s Next? We’re at a pivotal point. A break back above 554.93 could give bulls a lifeline, but if SPY continues to slide, the 551.00 level will be the last line of support before more significant downside risk comes into play. Stay cautious and keep an eye on these critical levels as we head into the next trading sessions. I am starting to believe that market is in a delicate position, and how it reacts here will set the tone for the days to come.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Deno_Trading
2