Get started

Spyshort

$SPY Why We Will Continue Down / Bear Market Not FinishedWhat is Federal Funds Rate? The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other overnight on an uncollateralized basis. It is the interest rate at which banks can borrow or lend money in the federal funds market. The Federal Reserve uses the federal funds rate as a tool to implement monetary policy and control inflation. By raising or lowering the federal funds rate, the Federal Reserve can influence the overall level of interest rates in the economy, thereby impacting economic growth and inflation. How Does Federal Funds Rate Affect The Economy? The Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can have a significant impact on the overall economy. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it makes borrowing money more expensive for banks, which in turn makes borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses. This can slow down economic growth by making it more difficult for companies to expand and for consumers to purchase big-ticket items like homes and cars. On the other hand, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate, it makes borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic growth by making it easier for businesses to expand and for consumers to purchase big-ticket items. Lowering the federal funds rate can also help to combat inflation by making it less expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can help to keep prices stable. The Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can also affect the stock market, currency exchange rate, and bond market. In summary, the Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can have a significant impact on the economy by affecting interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. What is the Projection of Federal Funds Rate In 2023? Due to Ukraine and COVID, this has led to a historic rise in interest rates. This means that borrowing costs are increased, saving becomes more attractive/less spending, and stock prices may decrease/bonds favored. Markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates again on February 1, 2023, likely by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%-4.75%. However, there’s a reasonable chance the Fed opts for a larger 0.5 percentage point hike. Hope this helps.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Smarter_Trades
15
Comprehensive Technical Analysis: SPX 10-Minute ChartThis SPX 10-minute chart shows a clear intraday shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, accompanied by multiple technical signals. Let’s break down the analysis across different technical components: 1. Trend Analysis: Initial Downtrend: The session started with bearish momentum as indicated by Put Signals and declining price action. The lower lows created a brief bearish trend that ended with a strong reversal. Bullish Reversal: The reversal is confirmed by a series of Call Signals after a strong bullish breakout from the previous consolidation zone. The price broke above a significant resistance level around 5,731.94, leading to a steady uptrend. 2. Moving Averages: Short-Term Moving Average (Orange Line): This acts as immediate support during the bullish run. The price consistently stays above this line, indicating short-term bullish strength. The slope of the moving average is steep, reflecting increasing bullish momentum. Mid-Term Moving Average (Blue Line): Positioned further below, the blue moving average provides a broader support level. This indicates that the medium-term trend remains supportive of the upward move, showing a well-established bullish context. 3. Heikin Ashi Candles: Bullish Momentum: The Heikin Ashi candles display a strong bullish pattern with several consecutive yellow candles and minimal lower wicks, indicating reduced volatility on the downside. Temporary Pullback: A few red candles appear, marking brief consolidation but not a trend reversal. The continuation of yellow candles afterward confirms sustained bullish pressure. 4. Key Signals and Levels: Entry Long: A long entry signal is observed after the breakout around 5,731.94, which was an excellent point for entering the bullish trade. Exit Long: The Exit Long signal near 5,776.76 suggests taking profits after the bullish move. This level now serves as short-term resistance. Support Levels: Immediate Support: 5,755.43 – A pullback to this level would still align with the bullish structure as long as it holds. Major Support: 5,731.94 – This level marks the breakout point, acting as a strong floor for further bullish moves. 5. Volume and Momentum: Although volume is not displayed, typically such strong moves (as indicated by Heikin Ashi and moving averages) are accompanied by rising volume. Momentum: Bullish momentum remains high, supported by consistent upward price movement and the sustained hold above the moving averages. 6. Resistance and Future Outlook: Immediate Resistance: The price is facing resistance at 5,776.76. A break above this could open the path to higher levels, potentially testing psychological levels like 5,800. Continuation or Pullback: If the price breaks above 5,776, we can expect a continuation of the uptrend. However, a failure at this resistance might lead to a short-term pullback to 5,755 or even 5,731. Conclusion: The chart reflects a strong bullish reversal with clear signals of upward momentum. Traders should watch the 5,776 level for a breakout confirmation or potential pullback to the key support levels at 5,755 and 5,731. Maintaining the trend above the orange and blue moving averages will be crucial for sustained bullish movement.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
SPY: 2007 vs. 2024 Rate Cut CyclesEconomic Indicators Comparison (2007 vs. 2024): In both 2007 and 2024, several key economic indicators show notable similarities, suggesting the market faces comparable macroeconomic challenges: Unemployment Rate (September 2007: 4.7%; September 2024: 4.2%) US Inflation Rate YoY (September 2007: 2.5%; September 2024: 2.5%) US Housing Starts (September 2007: 1.238M; September 2024: 1.235M) US Leading Economic Activity (September 2007: 100.4; September 2024: 100.4) US Existing Home Sales (September 2007: 4.5M; September 2024: 3.95M) These parallels reinforce the notion that the 2024 market may experience similar stress as 2007 unless significant positive economic developments occur. Overview: The charts and additional data provided give a compelling comparison of two major market cycles: 2007 and 2024. Both cycles show striking similarities in market behavior, particularly surrounding the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We see a top in the S&P 500 (SPX) in July of both years, followed by corrections, recoveries, and rate cuts in September. 2007 Market Behavior: July 17, 2007 - SPX Tops: The S&P 500 peaked in mid-July 2007, reaching new highs as the economy, on the surface, seemed stable. -9.5% Correction: Shortly after the top, the market corrected, declining by 9.5% in response to growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis. Full Recovery: The market briefly recovered as investors expected the Federal Reserve to step in with supportive policies. September 18, 2007 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in September 2007, sparking optimism that monetary easing could prevent further economic deterioration. Market Collapse: Despite the rate cuts, the crisis deepened, leading to a full-scale market collapse as the global financial crisis unfolded. 2024 Market Behavior (So Far): July 17, 2024 - SPX Tops: Once again, we see the S&P 500 peak in mid-July 2024, a period marked by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. -8.6% Correction: Similar to 2007, the market corrected by 8.6%, driven by fears of a potential economic slowdown and the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments. Full Recovery: The market saw a brief recovery, as investors anticipated rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures. September 18, 2024 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates on September 18, 2024, echoing the 2007 scenario. However, whether the market will collapse, stabilize, or recover remains to be seen. Comparative Analysis: Topping Patterns: Both 2007 and 2024 show a clear topping pattern in July, followed by sharp corrections and subsequent rate cuts in September. This parallel highlights the cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy. Rate Cut Effects: Historically, the first rate cut has not always led to an immediate market recovery. In 2007, despite initial optimism, the market eventually collapsed as the underlying economic problems, specifically the subprime crisis, worsened. The question now is whether the 2024 market will follow the same path, especially considering ongoing inflation and potential economic stagnation. Key Observations: Corrections and Recoveries: Both markets experienced similar corrections post-top. The 8.6% correction in 2024 mirrors the 9.5% drop in 2007, showing that investor sentiment and market behavior can repeat under similar macroeconomic pressures. Rate Cut Timing: In both years, rate cuts followed periods of market instability, with the hope that monetary easing would stabilize the economy. However, uncertainty looms in 2024, as it is yet unclear whether these cuts will prevent a deeper recession or lead to further volatility. Potential for Market Collapse in 2024: While the 2007 market collapse was driven by the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2024 market faces different challenges, such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and evolving global trade dynamics. There remains a risk that the 2024 market could experience a sharp downturn if these issues worsen.
AMEX:SPYShort
by alcoholic-semen-thrower
SPY Daily Chart Analysis: Approaching Key Resistance at $564Looking at the SPY daily chart, the price has recovered well from its recent pullback and is now approaching a significant resistance level around $564. Key Levels: Resistance at $564: The green dashed line highlights this key resistance zone. SPY has tested this level multiple times, and we’re nearing another test. Each time the price approached this zone, it faced rejection, making it a critical level to break for continued upside. Support at $552.49: This is the immediate support zone, and it’s holding strong. Any pullback towards this level would be a natural correction but as long as we stay above it, the bulls remain in control. What I Expect: Potential Breakout: If SPY manages to break and hold above $564, we could see a significant rally, possibly testing higher resistance levels around $570. However, failure to break this resistance might lead to another pullback, with $552 acting as the first major support. Sideways Action: There’s also the chance that SPY could consolidate in the $552 - $564 range before making a decisive move in either direction. This would create a buildup of momentum before the next big breakout or breakdown. Final Thoughts: We’re at a critical juncture. If the bulls can push through $564, we might see a continuation of the larger uptrend. However, resistance here has been strong, so I’ll be watching closely for either a breakout or a rejection at this level. Stay cautious and watch for clear confirmation before making your move.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
SPY 5-Minute Chart Analysis Targeting Opening Range BreakoutLooking at the SPY 5-minute chart, we’re seeing some clear bearish signals after what seemed like a potential recovery. Let me walk you through the main things that stand out. What I’m Seeing: Resistance at $554.41: The price reached a high of $554.41 but failed to hold, showing clear rejection at this level. This resistance has become a key point, as each attempt to break above it has been met with selling pressure. Drop to $541.77: We’re now seeing a sharp decline, with the price currently sitting around $541.77. This steep drop indicates that the sellers have firmly taken control. Failed Support at $548: Earlier, $548 was providing some support, but once that level broke, it led to a cascade of selling down to the $541 - $542 zone. What I Expect: Further Downside: Given the current momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised if we test the $540.97 level soon. If this level breaks, we could see a deeper drop, potentially targeting the $540 psychological level or even lower. Potential Bounce: If buyers step in around this $541 zone, we might see a short-term bounce. But unless we reclaim $548, I’m not convinced that a reversal is coming. My Takeaway: Right now, the price action is heavily favouring the bears. The failed break above $554 and the sharp drop tell me to stay cautious. If I were trading, I’d lean towards short positions unless we see a strong reversal above $548. Let’s see how it unfolds!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Deno_Trading
S&P 500 ($SPY) COLLAPSE | Recession Alert!!Behold, devastation just up ahead. $2500 is probable in the S&P. Retirements are about to be wiped out. As a friendly reminder, the "401K is free money" narrative is going to evaporate. The media will soon be out in full force talking about: "stay the course" "remember your goals" "stay invested" "LFG" "buy the dip" So foolish. If you are trapped in a retirement fund (401K), the best thing you can do right now is get defensive. Sell ALL "growth stocks" and shift all of your wealth into cash and / or bonds. Be careful out there, everyone! Something major is happening on a global scale!
TVC:SPXShort
by ChiefMacro
9