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ES short ? Tomorrow is a key and pivotal moment for ES and the rest of the market…a good reaction to NFP tomorrow morning and we change trend moving forward, but a bad reaction and this likely starts the next leg lower. You can take a speculative short w small size here and target 4000 with a stop loss above 4110. Preferably i prefer to wait until the reaction and react accordingly. If we break the trend we likely head to 4300 area before years end. If we break 4000 then 3950 is on the table minimum, and we can possibly test lows in the next few months. I am inclined to lean bullish based on Dow already breaking its TL and making a higher high, plus high yield bonds breaking its trend as well as yields and DXY as well…which has marked major lows in the past
CME_MINI:ES1!
by rsaylor55
The incomming Capitulation for the SPYThe SPY has been trending upwards since the beginning of time. I believe the time has come for this bubble to burst mainly because of Elliot Wave Theory that coincides with the catastrophic macro economic environment. In the weekly chart I can see 5 impulsive waves that met their bullish targets. Since then, monthly chart has lost momentum, which means every "pump" is a shorting opportunity. This weekly correction could be manifested as big ABC or ABCDE (red in the chart). Currently SPY is developing wave (B) to the upside (red in the chart) and is at resistance levels. Wave (A) was a clear ABC on the weekly chart which each subdivides into their respective corrections. Wave (B) has completed waves AB and is developing C. Weekly Indicator analysis The Elliot Wave Indicator has been distributing for the past 35 days. The Elliot Wave Number has been distributing for the past 21 days. SRSI entering in overbought territory. Daily Indicator analysis The Elliot Wave Indicator has been distributing for the past 54 days. The Elliot Wave Number has been distributing for the past 47 days. SRSI has been > 50 the past 55 days. Bearish Divergence on MACD Daily 200MA is at 402 3Day 200MA is at 399 Weekly Resistances are 402 - 411 - 417 Daily Resistances are 402 - 411 - Targets to the downside Weekly 200MA trending upwards 354 Fibonacci extension 1 level at 315 Fibonacci extensions 1.382-1.618 at 245-272 Fibonacci extensions 1.382-1.618 from wave 3-4 at 222-248 (big support and bottom of bear market) To sum it up. Looks bearish on macro scale and daily charts presenting bearish divergences. SPY could still trend upwards and go to the resistances stated above and accumulate more bearish divergences. My bias will change if weekly chart presents bullish divergence on the Elliot Wave Indicator (higher low in price with accumulation).
AMEX:SPYShort
by gmemin
SPX - US500 @ 200 EMA - TOPS CALLED BY 200 EMA the 200 day ema has called all 2022 TOPDS - now again In general, the 50- and 200-day EMAs are used as indicators for long-term trends. When a stock price crosses its 200-day moving average, it is a technical signal that a reversal has occurred. Traders who employ technical analysis find moving averages very useful and insightful when applied correctly. ****** VOLUME DROP OFF THE HIGHER SHE GOES ******* STOCHASTIC CALLS IT WAY OVERBOUGHT HOPIUM - on slower rate hikes may prove to be premature when next CPI and FOMC meeting takes place in 2 weeks....
BLACKBULL:US500.FShort
by CapeAfrican
1
SPY Dump incomingUsing the Broadening Formations from The Strat we can see that SPY is riding the top of the BF well, but even with FED mins coming out it still could not break resistance on the Daily. With that I expect SPY to chill around this area until next week or December at the next fed meeting. If you are in our group and read my write ups you know the real recession is coming 2023 and that is where I believe SPY will create Lower Low. Trade Price Action Friends. Have a green time.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Yourboydc
S&P500 / VIX - Black Swan Incoming? 🔮Taking a look at the SP500 Daily with our US Equity Gaps indicator, next to the VIX Weekly. Looking back to the start of 2022, we can see a series of "controlled" selling, on our grind from the 4700s, down to 3500-3600.📉 Compare that to the VIX, we can see the stock market has yet to experience a true black swan. See the 2020 mega spike in the VIX. Whether it's due to geopolitical tensions, financial data, etc., we'll see. But you can almost feel that the market is teetering on a knife's edge. Or at least that's how we feel! 😬 Throw these against the Equity Gaps indicator, and it shows we have plenty to fill to the downside.🤯 Who knows. Maybe we're just being cynical. However, we feel there's a 10-30% downside vs a smaller 1-5% upside. If that's the case, we're happy to be sitting on our hands for the time being. -TucciNomics Chief Overlord, AlgoBuddy
TVC:VIXShort
by QuantVue
Soxs is the ticket out of povertyDefended support, on high volume, trendline support, Capitulation already took place, inverse head and shoulders break, semis are overpriced and garbage again after 40% rally. Come with me as we milk this one last time into vix 45 If this market keeps going up slowly or continues consolidating I will keep adding 3month and 10 year yields are inverted like hell and people are buying 2000 pe stocks into a recession god help us all The fact that Bitcoin still has buyers sickens me
AMEX:SOXSLong
by Okbronpbro
The two ways this plays out. Both are badHey there friends! As you can see, I have two resistance trendlines plotted. Both historically have been respected very reasonably. On top of this, id like to mention that my software that signals weakness in the market has been triggered. Although it doesnt 100% predict the absolute top, it does show where weakness is and you can see how it has preformed in the past. With this said, as we test the first of the 2 trendline resistances of this massive megaphone AND test the resistance trendline of the ascending channel, I expect some kind of retrace. The target would be assumed to be the bottom of the ascending channel, which would be 3836. From there we will see one of two things. Either a breakout of the ascending channel or a bounce from the support line to send us up to test the second of the resistance trendlines in the descending megaphone. If we bounce, im certain it will also test the resistance trendline of the ascending channel. This would line up to be on December 1st with a target of about 4110. If instead we breakout of the ascending channel when we head down, the target would be 3300 based purely on TA of the ascending channel. But i would like to mention that whenever we find a top, we reject -16.50% in 45 days (this has happened the last two times) If we go based on that the target would be more like 3200. Stay fluid friends. Were in for a volatile time
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pavley
Short SPY through year-endSPY has had a significant rally on a lower dollar and CPI print. We are now approaching the long-term resistance trendline and the 200D SMA. We also have a rising wedge about to complete a 5-wave move. Supporting the move lower, we have the number of stocks above their 200D SMA at the high of the year, and the VIX is approaching the year's low. From a macro backdrop, there will be significant forced selling for all defined benefits accounts (401Ks, etc.) due to the mandatory annual withdrawal. The current setup creates a solid R:R trade going into year-end (4:1). Target: 330-320, and stop above 415-420.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPY_VIX_TRADER
SPY Analysis (November)This is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for November 2022. Overview The S&P 500 remains in a downtrend. While price bounced off of the 200-week moving average, there is a significant amount of overhead resistance. There has not yet been full backwardation in the VIX term structure that could lend credibility to the idea that a cycle low has been achieved. Cycle lows typically do not occur until after interest rates begin to decline. Therefore, so long as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which reduces the supply of money, it is unlikely that the stock market can create new all-time highs. The yield curve has inverted to an extreme degree. A yield curve inversion reflects a contraction in the credit market. Since credit is the main driver of the money supply and economic activity, an inverted yield curve is a warning sign of future economic decline. As the unemployment rate rises and corporate earnings decline, the stock market is likely to face a prolonged period of headwinds. Due to persistent supply issues in a deglobalizing world, commodity inflation is likely to persist even as demand cools, thus creating a difficult situation whereby, for the first time in a half-century, central banks' ability to increase the money supply to stimulate the economy is substantially limited. The global economy is likely entering into a new supercycle where interest rates remain elevated or increase over the long term. This stagflationary environment is likely to stunt the S&P 500's growth prospects for the long term. Companies with negative cash flow and no pathway to profitability are likely to be severely affected. In the worst-case scenario, commodity hyperinflation, debt crises, and a monetary crisis are all possible in the years ahead. Nonetheless, despite deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, plenty of great investment opportunities abound. Bullish post-election seasonality may carry the entire U.S. stock market higher, especially as market participants perceive a pivot in monetary policy. Overnight repo action hint that the Federal Reserve may have already stopped draining liquidity out of the banking system. As the world transitions to sustainable energy, companies that invest in sustainable infrastructure are likely to move substantially higher. Emerging markets, especially India and Latin America, are likely to be beneficiaries of flaring tensions between superpowers. It is during market turmoil that well-planned, risk-managed investments can prove most lucrative in the long term. Market bottoms form when all market participants become bearish and no sellers are left. Quarterly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPX will close the year within this price range. High price: 4047 Low price: 3125 For those who do not already know, the quarterly expected move is the predicted range within which price is expected to remain at the close of the current quarter (3-month period). It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior quarter but before the market opens for the current quarter. For more information on how to calculate these values, please see the link at the bottom of this post. Volatility & Seasonality As noted above, there has not yet been complete VIX term structure backwardation. VIX term structure backwardation reflects that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. The VIX term structure usually goes into complete backwardation at cycle bottoms, as this structure reflects the type of capitulation that major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. The VIX term structure currently shows that the market believes that higher volatility is to come (in 2023). Fibonacci Levels On the daily chart, price bounced at the 50% retracement level (Fibonacci levels drawn from the bottom in October to the most recent high on November 1st). If price can hold the 50% retracement level this shows relative bullishness. Price also continues to cluster around the 3rd Fibonacci spiral that I discussed in my prior posts (see links to related ideas below). Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back (or regress) to its mean for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals. Since the start of 2022, the daily regression channel has been downsloping. Price has recently bounced off the mean, despite downward oscillator momentum. This reflects bullishness. Weekly Chart In the below weekly chart, we can see the EMA ribbon has completely inverted. The EMA ribbon is a collection of exponential moving averages that act as resistance when price reaches it from below and support when price reaches it from above. The last time the EMA ribbon completely inverted was during the Great Recession. In general, the farther the S&P 500 falls, the wider the EMA ribbon will get. The wider the EMA ribbon gets, the harder it will be for price to pierce the ribbon and break out to the upside. The significance of this is that a wide and inverted EMA ribbon on the weekly chart makes a sharp V-shaped recovery less likely. This is because when the EMA ribbon is wide, each moving average will individually pose a challenge to price action more so than if all the moving averages are converged at nearly the same level. Although the current situation differs in many ways from the Great Recession. Look below at how similar the weekly charts appear. Another chart that has me concerned about a potential capitulation event is the weekly chart for the tech short derivative chart (SQQQ). As many of you know, when the price of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) moves down, SQQQ moves up. SQQQ is an important chart to consider because it reflects the extent to which retail traders are bearish on tech stocks. Right now, SQQQ's chart is particularly precarious and primed for a capitulation event because price fell to then bounced off of converged moving averages. If we zoom out to view the entire price history of SQQQ we can see that its price rarely rises above the weekly EMA ribbon except during capitulation events, thus indicating that we are dealing with unprecedented bearishness of interest-rate-sensitive tech stocks. For the tech bulls to prevail, SQQQ's price must fall below the EMA ribbon. Whereas if a capitulation event occurs, the Nasdaq 100 stocks can experience a rapid and significant decline back down to their pre-pandemic highs, as shown below. This could mean that as a ratio to the money supply, the Nasdaq 100 goes all the way back to the March 2020 bottom, thereby wiping out all the wealth that investing in tech stocks created since the pandemic began. To see why the money supply can be used in this manner, you can check out my post here: Stage of the Economic Cycle Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve remains inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle. Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage. Credit: Fidelity Investments We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold. Credit: StockCharts.com Yearly Chart When analyzed on the yearly chart, the S&P 500's current price action looks analogous to the Early 2000s Recession, as shown below. Following the Early 2000s recession, it took over 12 years for the stock market to sustain new all-time highs. Although anything is possible, unfortunately the current situation is looking similar. Bonds This chart is a ratio of the S&P 500 (SPX) relative to the price of iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The regression channel gives us a very interesting piece of insight. It could suggest that the S&P 500 is nowhere near its bottom yet. Since TLT's price drops when bond yields go up, this ratio chart suggests that for the current yield on risk-free long-dated government bonds, the S&P 500 could be way overpriced still. The higher the yields on government bonds rise, the more likely it is that capital will flow out of the stock market and into bonds. As shown below, the higher timeframe oscillators suggest this may be the case. Yield Curve Inversion The current yield curve inversion (as measured as a ratio between the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. Treasuries) is the most extreme on record. This inversion is flashing a major recession warning. Emerging Markets Here's one investment idea that always works... Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you. If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The quarterly expected moves that I've posted above were calculated using options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
38