Get started

Spyshort

The two ways this plays out. Both are badHey there friends! As you can see, I have two resistance trendlines plotted. Both historically have been respected very reasonably. On top of this, id like to mention that my software that signals weakness in the market has been triggered. Although it doesnt 100% predict the absolute top, it does show where weakness is and you can see how it has preformed in the past. With this said, as we test the first of the 2 trendline resistances of this massive megaphone AND test the resistance trendline of the ascending channel, I expect some kind of retrace. The target would be assumed to be the bottom of the ascending channel, which would be 3836. From there we will see one of two things. Either a breakout of the ascending channel or a bounce from the support line to send us up to test the second of the resistance trendlines in the descending megaphone. If we bounce, im certain it will also test the resistance trendline of the ascending channel. This would line up to be on December 1st with a target of about 4110. If instead we breakout of the ascending channel when we head down, the target would be 3300 based purely on TA of the ascending channel. But i would like to mention that whenever we find a top, we reject -16.50% in 45 days (this has happened the last two times) If we go based on that the target would be more like 3200. Stay fluid friends. Were in for a volatile time
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pavley
Short SPY through year-endSPY has had a significant rally on a lower dollar and CPI print. We are now approaching the long-term resistance trendline and the 200D SMA. We also have a rising wedge about to complete a 5-wave move. Supporting the move lower, we have the number of stocks above their 200D SMA at the high of the year, and the VIX is approaching the year's low. From a macro backdrop, there will be significant forced selling for all defined benefits accounts (401Ks, etc.) due to the mandatory annual withdrawal. The current setup creates a solid R:R trade going into year-end (4:1). Target: 330-320, and stop above 415-420.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPY_VIX_TRADER
SPY Analysis (November)This is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for November 2022. Overview The S&P 500 remains in a downtrend. While price bounced off of the 200-week moving average, there is a significant amount of overhead resistance. There has not yet been full backwardation in the VIX term structure that could lend credibility to the idea that a cycle low has been achieved. Cycle lows typically do not occur until after interest rates begin to decline. Therefore, so long as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which reduces the supply of money, it is unlikely that the stock market can create new all-time highs. The yield curve has inverted to an extreme degree. A yield curve inversion reflects a contraction in the credit market. Since credit is the main driver of the money supply and economic activity, an inverted yield curve is a warning sign of future economic decline. As the unemployment rate rises and corporate earnings decline, the stock market is likely to face a prolonged period of headwinds. Due to persistent supply issues in a deglobalizing world, commodity inflation is likely to persist even as demand cools, thus creating a difficult situation whereby, for the first time in a half-century, central banks' ability to increase the money supply to stimulate the economy is substantially limited. The global economy is likely entering into a new supercycle where interest rates remain elevated or increase over the long term. This stagflationary environment is likely to stunt the S&P 500's growth prospects for the long term. Companies with negative cash flow and no pathway to profitability are likely to be severely affected. In the worst-case scenario, commodity hyperinflation, debt crises, and a monetary crisis are all possible in the years ahead. Nonetheless, despite deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, plenty of great investment opportunities abound. Bullish post-election seasonality may carry the entire U.S. stock market higher, especially as market participants perceive a pivot in monetary policy. Overnight repo action hint that the Federal Reserve may have already stopped draining liquidity out of the banking system. As the world transitions to sustainable energy, companies that invest in sustainable infrastructure are likely to move substantially higher. Emerging markets, especially India and Latin America, are likely to be beneficiaries of flaring tensions between superpowers. It is during market turmoil that well-planned, risk-managed investments can prove most lucrative in the long term. Market bottoms form when all market participants become bearish and no sellers are left. Quarterly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPX will close the year within this price range. High price: 4047 Low price: 3125 For those who do not already know, the quarterly expected move is the predicted range within which price is expected to remain at the close of the current quarter (3-month period). It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior quarter but before the market opens for the current quarter. For more information on how to calculate these values, please see the link at the bottom of this post. Volatility & Seasonality As noted above, there has not yet been complete VIX term structure backwardation. VIX term structure backwardation reflects that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. The VIX term structure usually goes into complete backwardation at cycle bottoms, as this structure reflects the type of capitulation that major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. The VIX term structure currently shows that the market believes that higher volatility is to come (in 2023). Fibonacci Levels On the daily chart, price bounced at the 50% retracement level (Fibonacci levels drawn from the bottom in October to the most recent high on November 1st). If price can hold the 50% retracement level this shows relative bullishness. Price also continues to cluster around the 3rd Fibonacci spiral that I discussed in my prior posts (see links to related ideas below). Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back (or regress) to its mean for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals. Since the start of 2022, the daily regression channel has been downsloping. Price has recently bounced off the mean, despite downward oscillator momentum. This reflects bullishness. Weekly Chart In the below weekly chart, we can see the EMA ribbon has completely inverted. The EMA ribbon is a collection of exponential moving averages that act as resistance when price reaches it from below and support when price reaches it from above. The last time the EMA ribbon completely inverted was during the Great Recession. In general, the farther the S&P 500 falls, the wider the EMA ribbon will get. The wider the EMA ribbon gets, the harder it will be for price to pierce the ribbon and break out to the upside. The significance of this is that a wide and inverted EMA ribbon on the weekly chart makes a sharp V-shaped recovery less likely. This is because when the EMA ribbon is wide, each moving average will individually pose a challenge to price action more so than if all the moving averages are converged at nearly the same level. Although the current situation differs in many ways from the Great Recession. Look below at how similar the weekly charts appear. Another chart that has me concerned about a potential capitulation event is the weekly chart for the tech short derivative chart (SQQQ). As many of you know, when the price of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) moves down, SQQQ moves up. SQQQ is an important chart to consider because it reflects the extent to which retail traders are bearish on tech stocks. Right now, SQQQ's chart is particularly precarious and primed for a capitulation event because price fell to then bounced off of converged moving averages. If we zoom out to view the entire price history of SQQQ we can see that its price rarely rises above the weekly EMA ribbon except during capitulation events, thus indicating that we are dealing with unprecedented bearishness of interest-rate-sensitive tech stocks. For the tech bulls to prevail, SQQQ's price must fall below the EMA ribbon. Whereas if a capitulation event occurs, the Nasdaq 100 stocks can experience a rapid and significant decline back down to their pre-pandemic highs, as shown below. This could mean that as a ratio to the money supply, the Nasdaq 100 goes all the way back to the March 2020 bottom, thereby wiping out all the wealth that investing in tech stocks created since the pandemic began. To see why the money supply can be used in this manner, you can check out my post here: Stage of the Economic Cycle Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve remains inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle. Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage. Credit: Fidelity Investments We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold. Credit: StockCharts.com Yearly Chart When analyzed on the yearly chart, the S&P 500's current price action looks analogous to the Early 2000s Recession, as shown below. Following the Early 2000s recession, it took over 12 years for the stock market to sustain new all-time highs. Although anything is possible, unfortunately the current situation is looking similar. Bonds This chart is a ratio of the S&P 500 (SPX) relative to the price of iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The regression channel gives us a very interesting piece of insight. It could suggest that the S&P 500 is nowhere near its bottom yet. Since TLT's price drops when bond yields go up, this ratio chart suggests that for the current yield on risk-free long-dated government bonds, the S&P 500 could be way overpriced still. The higher the yields on government bonds rise, the more likely it is that capital will flow out of the stock market and into bonds. As shown below, the higher timeframe oscillators suggest this may be the case. Yield Curve Inversion The current yield curve inversion (as measured as a ratio between the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. Treasuries) is the most extreme on record. This inversion is flashing a major recession warning. Emerging Markets Here's one investment idea that always works... Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you. If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The quarterly expected moves that I've posted above were calculated using options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
38
Whats next for SPY? This is a trendline I am watching going into the weekend on $SPY The fact we did not test the bottom trendline before retesting the upper, suggest the next leg down will be more aggressive than the previous bear sessions. Also, based on previous bear sessions, we head down -17.50 after rejection within a 50 day window. If we use the same price action, we can anticipate SPY to be at AROUND $330 by New Years. (Assuming it is not more aggressive. But I believe the next leg down will be)
AMEX:SPYShort
by Pavley
2
SPY Rejection Zone Before Hammer Time, New LowsBullish price action with 7.7% inflation report, the thing is it's not close to 2%. We have much more to go. Using key levels, 372, 385, 404, 412.5, drawing a range where there may be rejection. From the downward resistance line, lot of confluence at 411. Drawing line from the tops of the past year. From this level would be targeting 300-330 range. Aiming for bottom around late janurary- mid feburary. Expecting to see this high around Nov21st-December 7rd. Idea is to have funds allocated for short, scaling in 20% of position around 398, 30% around 404, and 50% around 408-411 See linked Idea for more info
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by swizfisch
Analysis of the S&P 500 index: The big game begins…Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/09/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index. And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day. What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at the level of 3828. Yesterday the market continued moving towards the level of 3820-3845, which I wrote about earlier. However, at the moment, I see all the signals for a market reversal and its movement to the level of 3440. Like yesterday, today a lot will be decided by the election result, but at the moment there were already sales in Europe and Asia. The market reacts negatively to the elections, as I expected. Large and medium-sized hedge funds are shrinking their portfolios, increasing volatility. However, such actions may provoke a sell-off in order to diversify risks for clients. What is likely to cause a sharp movement to the level of 3440 and below. What I'm looking forward to today: Today I expect the index to move to 3750, however, if the fall accelerates, then all long positions should be closed. There is also a possibility of a sharp movement of the market to the level of 3660. Here are my trading recommendations for today. What I recommend If you want to go short: Short positions are possible from the level of 3830-3850. But you can also try to open a position in the market, limit your losses. If you want to go long: Long positions are prohibited, the market is likely to fall sharply to the level of 3440. If you are out of the market: Today, as yesterday, long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3830-3875, limit your losses. But if you see anomalous behavior in the market, like a sharp rise, then it is better to stand aside, although the potential for growth to the level of 3970-4050 remains, but at the moment such an event is unlikely. Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
1
S&P 500: At the edge… Prepare for sudden movements.Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/08/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index. And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day. What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at the level of 3806. Yesterday, as I expected, the index kept its movement to the zone 3820-3045, I wrote about this earlier. However, at the moment, a situation has formed on the market in which the market may fall sharply to the level of 3440. Today, a lot will depend on the results of the US elections, but at the moment there is a lot of free money on the market that can be thrown into the market, and this could happen today. Which is likely to cause the market to ideally crash to 3440 and below. What I'm looking forward to today: Today at the opening, I expect the index to try to rise to the level of 3820-3845. However, if there are large volumes on the market, then there is a possibility of a sharp movement of the market to the level 3440, so long positions are prohibited. Here are my trading recommendations for today. What I recommend If you want to go short: Short positions are possible from the 3820-3845 level, try to sell on the market reversal but limit your losses. If you want to go long: Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you are out of the market: Long positions are prohibited, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3810-3845, limit your losses. But if you see anomalous behavior in the market, like a sharp rise, then it is better to stand aside, although the potential for growth to the level of 3970-4050 remains, but at the moment such an event is unlikely. Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index . Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation. See you next time! Bye! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Subscribe to my and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index. Press your thumbs up. This will give me more motivation. See you nLong positions are possible from the level of 3750, but it is risky. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 3970, limit your losses. ext time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
5
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Target After The Midterm ElectionsThe Price Target for the Midterm Elections was perfectly reached, as you can see from the preview chart: I think there is still some juice left for this week, full of enthusiasm and promises of a soft landing from politicians. Then, by the end if the year, we will see Jamie Dimon`s "economic hurricane coming our way!" My price target for SPY S&P 500 ETF is the pre-pandemic level of $338. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPY
by TopgOptions
3
SPX500 Index Crash - 2022-2024Three attempts at pulling back: Pullback One: Clearly, the strongest positive angled pullback of the three. Short-lived and rejected fully met. Pullback One, can be construed as the second weakest pullback, if you take into consideration how quickly it came, and went. Upon failure, strong downside ensued. Lower-Lows in Down Trend. Pullback Two: Calm, Collected, Strong Pullback. The strongest of the three by far. She went boys. She sure did. In this moment, I don't know why she failed. The fact remains. Strong Pullback Two was eviscerated. Upon failure, strong downside ensued. Lower-Lows in Down Trend. Pullback Three, was absolutely slapped off her bar stool by the way FOMC Meeting candles printed on the chart. Followed up, by currently, an absolute horror show of an attempted recovery, in coordination with some suspicious early morning futures activity and the ensuing intraday. Was not a pretty sight. My Official opinion is: SPY500 is an absolute dumpster fire. Please take caution with your investments and invest wisely or take profit wisely. However you do so, I believe that the SPY500 is going to at least 2700 if not 2500 if not 2275. Thank you, Mr. Storm DUMPSTER FIRE.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LvNThL
1
SPY 52 WEEK LOW INCOMING?With the fed set to continue raising rates through 2022 I do not see a bottom in sight. Presented above I map out the two most possible scenarios in my opinion. The December fed meeting is the most important meeting coming post midterms. The November meeting this week will answer a few short term questions but the real question is do we begin slowing in December? If I had to answer the question above today the answer would be no! Based off the data we have received this month inflation is not slowing and unemployment is still low. The dollar has began to cool off, bonds & equities are getting some relief which provides more liquidity to the downside. The next week may become volatile or even a bit ranged bound as we wait on new data but I believe the end story is all the same. Spy breaking above the bear trend and 200ma invalidates my thesis. Fed rate slow also invalidates my thesis.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Ericc100k
3
SPY SHORT, Reoccurring Pennant like SEPT 19AMEX:SPY Pennant formation at the borderline resistance. Resistance at previous level ~388. Resistance under the broadening of a triangle (white linings). False breakout pennant, loss of momentum (blue flags). Similar pennant formed previously on 9/12/22. Then, next day it drop about $18/-6.3% down. Lack of volume and breakout tried but failed. Tomorrow FOMC speaks, market uncertainties. Also, Moderna Earnings this week 10/3 Thursday. Conclusion, possible minor pullback retracements to previous supports. Not a financial advisor nor a pro/expert trader. Just for educational purposes.
AMEX:SPYShort
by FortuneRise
8
SPY S&P 500 ETF Bullish Ahead of Midterm ElectionsWasn`t it strange to see META losing 25% and AMZN 20% in one week, yet the SPX S&P 500 still being bullish?! :) I told you in the previews chart, because of the Midterm Elections: In every country is the same, politicians in power try to keep the markets optimistic ahead of elections to get more votes, because the economy is doing great thanks to them. I wouldn`t be surprised to see the SPY S&P 500 ETF touch the psychological price of $400 days before the vote, while televisions talk about a potential reversal. So we still have 8 days of unexpected bullish market while the earnings of the companies reporting are lower. And don`t get frustrated to see that this was another bear market rally and the SPY will touch the $338 Pre-Lockdown level before Christmas. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
5
SPY Analysis (Mid-to-Late October)Below is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of mid-to-late October 2022. Weekly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range. High price: 375.64 Low price: 349.95 There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range. High price: 388.48 Low price: 337.10 For those who do not already know, the weekly expected move is the amount that an asset is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price within the current week. It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior week but before the market opens for the current week. For more information on how to calculate these values, please see the link at the bottom of this post. Volatility & Seasonality From a seasonality perspective, October usually opens relatively strong and can continue to be strong until about the middle of the month, then prices typically decline toward the end of the month. See the chart below. There may be increased volatility if the CPI report that comes out before the market opens on Thursday, October 13th surprises again to the upside. My inflation predictors show that inflation moderated in September (year-over-year) and that the inflation figure will be less than the August figure. However, there are early signs that inflation (particularly commodity price inflation) may not decline at the level needed for central banks to pivot away from tightening for some time to come. Until commodity prices stop accelerating higher, there cannot reasonably be a Fed Pivot. If the Fed were to pivot while commodities price inflation was accelerating it could lead to a hyperinflationary outcome. The recent volatility spike put the VIX term structure into partial backwardation. VIX term structure backwardation simply means that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. The VIX term structure usually goes into complete backwardation at major stock market bottoms, as this structure reflects the type of capitulation that all major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. In late September, the VIX broke the downward-sloping trendline. It's quite possible that there will be a capitulation event in mid- or late-October that causes the VIX to rise back above this downward-sloping trendline and which causes the VIX term structure to go into complete backwardation. If such a capitulation event occurs then it will likely mark the bottom for 2022. Fibonacci Levels Price continues to cluster around the 3rd Fibonacci spiral that I discussed in my prior posts (see links to related ideas below). It is my prediction that a capitulation event will form a lower wick below this line on the yearly candle but that prices will tend to revert back around this level by the year's end such that the yearly candle appears to sit on this line. See below for an illustration. If there is a major capitulation event whereby volatility breaks out and prices break down, I would expect major buyers to come in around the 0.5 level (shown below). The 0.618 level is another support level to watch. Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back (or regress) to its mean for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals. Since mid-August, the regression channel on the 1-hour chart has been governing price action (as inferred by such a high Pearson score). Please see below. You can see below that on Friday (October 7th), the price bounced off the mean (red line). Unless we get a highly favorable CPI report this week, I would expect that this channel could continue to govern price action all the way until the start of November. Here's a general sense of what that could look like. Please see below. Weekly Chart In my last SPY Analysis, I noted that my indicators on the weekly chart were suggesting that we could drop back below 388. That definitely happened in the midst of the end-of-September volatility. This time I am seeing something interesting on the 2-week chart... I noticed that the Madrid Ribbon has turned completely red twice. This is very rare in S&P 500 history. To put into perspective how rare this is, there have been recessions where not even this occurs. Therefore, in this regard, the extent and duration of stock market declines that we have already seen have been worse than some past recessions. Unfortunately, though, when this signal presents itself, there is usually more pain ahead. We are in a precarious circumstance with price now below the entire ribbon. Another chart that has me concerned about a potential capitulation event is the 2-day chart for the tech short derivative chart (SQQQ). As many of you well know, when tech stocks fall in price, the price of SQQQ goes up. As the chart above shows, the moving averages on the 2-day chart are nearing a complete crossover. This has never happened before in SQQQ's 12-year history. While only a possibility, this could set the stage for a capitulation event whereby Nasdaq 100 ( QQQ) stocks nosedive back down to their pre-pandemic highs. Without getting too deep into the analysis, this could also mean that as a ratio to the money supply, the Nasdaq 100 goes all the way back to the March 2020 bottom. In future posts, I'll discuss more about the money supply and why it can be used in this manner. Monthly Chart In terms of the monthly chart, as noted above, I do not see the S&P 500 realistically getting much below the 0.5 level in the chart below without some kind of a major price recovery. While anything can happen, if the Fed pivots before the Fed Funds rate has risen above the rate at which commodity prices are inflating, I do believe we can end up in a difficult situation with high inflation again in the future. Yearly Chart When put into the perspective of the entire history of the stock market (going back in 1871), look how high the stock market is currently valued relative to its mean and past price action. In terms of the post-Great Recession bull run, we are hanging on by our fingertips. See below. Below is a closer view. At the close of 2021, the stock market was so overbought (in terms of the Shiller PE ratio) that despite nearly 10 months of selling, stock valuation is still nearly as high as the peak before the Great Depression. The stock market is extremely overvalued because of monetary easing. Monetary easing is a central bank experiment that began in recent decades and was normalized in the years following the Great Recession. The monetary easing experiment has created tremendous reliance on its continuity. Only time will tell how the experiment ends... Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your constructive thoughts. Thank you. If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The expected moves that I've posted above were manually calculated by me using SPY options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the weekly expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
48