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SPY Puts should cash when the market opens.Ill start being more straight to the point. In my previous post I stated that the 370 level was a pivotal one. and you have seen for yourself time after time that it has been rejecting it all week. IDK why trading view is hiding my last post. Ive seen many profiles on here that should be deleted. hopefully this was the last time. Now today is Thursday and we have one more day to close off the week and the month. No one really likes September tbh for its historical bearishness. But what I do like is the buying opportunity it presents for my portfolio. Please watch the retest of the support off 363.09 and 360.99 Here's my entries for SPY today CaLLS 367.64. Puts 366.15
AMEX:SPYShort
by Courtneyd
$SPY $SPX - #SPY #SPX Where is the S & P 500 Index headed next?On Friday September 23rd, the FED held a very important meeting to discuss the current issues that we are facing economically, while most of the comments were bleak, there were a few clues that our supply chain could finally see a light at the end of the tunnel by next year (not without heartache of course). The largest issue we are facing is supply chain & employment retention issues. The supply chain will be slowly improving now until the end of the year. If you are following my social media page, I've stated that shipping prices will see a decline beginning this week (shipping is a large part of our supply chain issues). The second large issue is understaffed production. I believe this will adjust as more corporations begin laying off workers, the job market will tighten, making entry level positions more competitive. Real Estate will get slaughtered into the New year to make housing more affordable, but keep in mind we do have a shortage in homes (considering how many millennial/gen Xers are still living with their mamas). New home builders cannot profit with high inflation, high interest loans and a declining real estate market. The will begin to pay off debts first to avoid the new high rates and then buy back single family homes to flip for profits and/or buy back their own beaten down stocks. As FED pivots, homes will get purchased again so not at all am I expecting a 2008 scenario. When the FED decides to pivot, the best place to hold cash will be BITCOIN, GOLD, SILVER, STOCKS, (possibly real estate if you have cash on hand) ect and at that time $DXY will drop and the Dollar will no longer be the best store of value. I listened to the entire 2+ hours of the FED meeting and after analyzing the current data and Jerome Powell's hawkish nature, I'm NOT expecting a big bounce in the S&P 500 Index anytime soon. The shorts are piling in and for good reason because we will definitely drop down and make a fresh low this year. A pivot in our current sentiment isn't happening next month, the bounce going into October will be much weaker than the previous one we just had, maybe just to squeeze enough shorts out of existence before actually making the plunge into the final accumulation pattern. I will keep updating my thoughts as more data is printed but for now this is an estimate of how I see the price action flowing on The S & P 500 Index. Happy Sunday!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ChaldeaCode
2
Bear Market Rally TeeteringMarket participants are wondering right now if we are merely in a bear market rally or if this is the beginning of a new long-term bull run. I thought I would write a post to share my thoughts. First, the chart above: This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with Fibonacci levels applied. I drew Fibonacci levels from the January high to the June low to identify areas where the price of SPY may be resisted or reverse back downward. The chart is adjusted for dividends and is based on a log scale. I also placed arrows where Fibonacci levels may have acted either as support (up arrows) or resistance (down arrows). While anything can happen and it would be foolish to make a call for certain, I do genuinely believe the following: Regardless of how high the S&P 500 rallies, at some point in the future we will likely see the June bottom again. This is because the June bottom is far more important than most people realize, as I will explain below. Back on June 17th, the exact day of the bottom, I noted that SPY was likely bottoming. My charting analysis told me we were likely in the lower wick formation of the monthly candle at the time, so I knew a bottom was imminent. See the below post. In early July, I also explained that the bottom was significant. See the below post. We are currently sitting on a major level in stock market history. See the below chart. The chart above is a yearly chart of the entire 150 years of SPX price data that Trading View provides. When one analyzes the chart as if it were a shorter timeframe chart, one will see that we are teetering right on the third Fibonacci extension of the Great Depression high. That is to say, when one draws Fibonacci lines from the lowest price ever for the SPX up to the Great Depression peak and then applies Fibonacci extensions, one will see that the June bottom was precisely on the third extension of the Great Depression. (Some call it a Fibonacci extension, some refer to it as a Fibonacci Spiral, and others refer to it as a Golden Spiral. Regardless, it is a very important level.) For more information about the math and theory behind it, you check out this Wikipedia article on the Golden Spiral: en.wikipedia.org These spirals occur at points in time when markets can undergo the most dramatic declines. This occurs mathematically in the form of price unraveling to a previous Fibonacci level. In fact, very few people know that Black Monday (the 1987 Stock Market crash) occurred at the second extension of the Great Depression peak. Computers and smart money were detecting this Fibonacci level and likely led the initial phase of the sell-off, which spiraled into a panic sell-off. The above monthly chart from 1987 shows that price tried to surpass the second Fibonacci extension but failed to close above it and was repelled back down. Fast forward to the present time, the Fed Reserve's limitless quantitative easing propelled us abruptly above the third Fibonacci extension in the beginning of 2021. This important Fibonacci level actually held as support for both the 2021 low and the 2022 low (so far). See the charts below which show that the June bottom landed precisely on the 3rd Fibonacci extension. On a yearly chart, (although the yearly candle has not been completed yet), you can see that we are sitting precariously on the 3rd Fibonacci extension with a bearish hammer. This is quite concerning because it is occurring while we are on the verge of a significant recession. While I cannot explain all the reasons why I believe a significant recession is underway in this post, I have links to my prior posts explaining all the chart findings that lead me to this conclusion. You can refer to these links below. I find it concerning that so many market participants are buying into a rally while the yield curve is so inverted. Indeed, the yield curve is the most inverted it has ever been since data became available in the 1980s (as measured by a 10Y/2Y ratio). See my post below. Here's why I believe this rally is occurring. This rally was caused by two main types of market participants: Marginally informed market participants who think that inflation has peaked. While inflation very likely did peak locally, there are worrying charts that suggest elevated inflation will be persistent. Some commodities have broken out on their yearly charts, which can provide a tailwind for higher prices for years to come. So far there is no evidence in the charts that inflation is dropping precipitously enough to warrant a sudden pivot to easing by the Fed. I believe these marginally informed market participants may get whipsawed if inflation surprises back to the upside in the months or years ahead. Shorts are getting squeezed. There were plenty of signs in June that the markets needed to rally back up, no matter how bearish the long-term outlook. Many shorts missed these signs or fell victim to smart money misleading them. (Recall that right before the June low, Jamie Dimon warned that a hurricane was coming. Although this is actually true, his timing was likely not coincidental. Smart money loves to trap shorts right at the bottom and make fear-inciting statements when fear is already extreme. Basically, it's squeezing every penny out of uninformed market participants. Sadly, right at the January high Jamie Dimon said the opposite: Recall that in January 2022 he said that he sees the strongest growth in a decade . Again, trying to trap longs at the very top to squeeze every penny out of them. Never trust statements from anyone, unless they can back it up with a chart!). So we have been seeing shorts getting squeezed since June and this short squeeze has propelled the stock market higher at an unnatural and unwarranted rate. Technical reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias include: The weekly stochastic RSI is over-extended to the upside and ready to oscillate back down. While it's possible that price can continue higher or consolidate, despite a declining stochastic RSI, the risk-to-reward does not support rushing into long positions at this point in time. The weekly candle is still within the Ichimoku Cloud which can act as resistance. See chart below Other reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias: From late August through mid- to late-October stock market returns have historically remained muted or have declined. While some can argue that the VIX has broken down its trend line, I remain cautious whenever the VIX and the VVIX are so suppressed to the downside going in the August to October timeframe. This is typically a volatile part of the year. Few people noticed that last week, the weekly RSI of the VIX was the lowest in nearly a decade. This does not make any sense. Being a gauge of fear, I find it hard to believe that the fear among market participants last week was the lowest in nearly a decade (from a weekly RSI perspective). I believe that the VIX has been artificially low lately, and although I can only speculate why, I know one thing for certain: the risk-to-reward does not support entering a whole bunch of long positions at this time. Do not get caught up in the FOMO. The FED is only now just beginning to accelerate the roll-off of assets from its balance sheet. It's hard to imagine this action facilitating a bull run that breezes past new all-time highs. The value of the FED's assets is equal to a very sizable percentage of the total stock market capitalization. Rolling these assets off its balance sheet will de-leverage risk assets. Market participants buying into a rally as the Fed accelerates balance sheet roll-off is essentially fighting the Fed in my opinion. The Fed has only rolled off about 1% of its balance and we had one of the worst first 6 months of the year in stock market history. Finally, as noted above the yield curve has inverted. This means we are in a late-cycle rally. So if I am to add any longs, it will be in sectors that do well in the late cycle: Utilities, Telecom, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples. With that said, I will play very defensively and use fairly tight stops since many risk assets are still historically overvalued and overbought. I will look for strong bullish setups in only these sectors. I also see U.S. Treasuries as attractive if the Eurodollar Futures and the terminal rate remains steady, and assuming the Fed does not get crazy with its balance sheet roll-off. In summary, virtually all of the charts I have seen show that there will likely be a significant recession in the coming year(s). Be skeptical of strong rallies while the yield curve is inverted. Trade safe, never trade on emotion, and have a plan before you enter into a trade. Good luck with your trading!
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
47
SPY etf S&P 500 Price per Earnings still high: 18.66 ! If you haven`t bought puts ahead of the FOMC meeting: Then you should know that the P/E Ratio of the S&P 500 even after last Friday's sell-off is 18.66. Now considering that the median value is 14.90, i would say that a fair price for the S&P would the the pre-pandemic level of $3380, and respectively, for its etf SPY, $338. We might see a technical bounce here, due to the fact that the S&P is oversold and usually at this level is a buy opportunity, but short lived, to the next resistance of $374. Two months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
5
SPX potential breakdown and market correction*If* SPX were to move into a correction (and I think that is a big if), one possible pattern and signal would be the double top into head and shoulders pattern. This would start by breaking 4444 (hypothesis of a wedge and a breakdown of my grind zone) Then ultimately a decline to the 4200 long term channel bottom (super strong support) which also happens to be the H&S neckline. Below 4200 I'd start to believe in the possibility of a true market correction down to the 3500-3600 zone. Coincidentally, that is a 15% correction and pretty close to the 0.5 fib retrace.
SP:SPXShort
by upslidedown
Spy Possible Outcomes Short/longFirst thing i want to say is we've had a crazy month and anything is possible so dont take any of my ideas as financial advice. im only 16 with 2 very crazy years of experience. 1. . My first idea, and the one I believe in the most, is that we will bounce up and test the 389.46 level, and with all of the events leading up to that and October being right around the corner, we will most likely rally next week up to that level and then fall back before October (worst month for stocks other than september.) With momentum, I expect us to capitulate and fall straight down to 321.79 at the end of October, leading to the end of midterms, allowing us to bounce and rally through the winter, leading back into the 2023 chaos. After that, I have no idea what will happen; I haven't looked far enough, but this will be around the time ill be looking to buy indivual stocks again. 2.The second idea is we break through that 389.46 level and test that higher trend line around 4.12-4.15 where i expect us to reject near end of october also leading into midterms where we would then have the so said crash to 293.96 (2019 Highs) from november leading into beginning of 2023 having the dark winter everyone was talking about couple months ago. 3.Third and final idea in mind is we break the 398.46 level and we trade sideways unti lmarch of next year forming the right shoulder for the "crash" in march. This idea would kill all option premium for the next 6 months and would be the definion of max pain for option traders. 1 is my go to idea that i believe has the highest probability. 2. is a controversial one because midterms are expected to be bullish for the market and the market is going to be doing the opposite but with all the overseas new could still be a possibility. 3. Also a very controversial idea just threw it in because of the head and shoulders possibility. I Sold out of basically all my short position i'll be scaling back in through this expected rally. All these ideas are just ideas so dont take them to heart and please leave any opinions in the comments i will be reading everyones thoughts and criticism as i am just ur average teenager. time to do my homework :) Keep it respectful and happy trading everyone!
AMEX:SPYShort
by bullishbrowsing
2
Potential Failure in SPYSPY created a S/R Box between 362.17 - 431.73. There was an adjustment bar formed in July. These generated a weak point (danger zone) between 362.17 - 371.04 Should you set your stochastic to be the width of the box that was created (currently 4 bars), Jan - Apr was also a 4 bar box. When Stochastics move below 30, it is an indication that it is about to challenge the lows. Currently the stochastic is 17.32, this is suggesting that there is 17.32 of the box range left until the bottom is breached. The Apr 22 value for the 4 period stochastic was 1.96 suggesting weakness and a challenge of the low. However, there is a danger zone. 371.04, if prices could bounce from here (and on Sep 23, the price is 374.22 with a low of 373.44) it shows that there is strong support here. Should prices enter this zone, if fails to hold, the bottom will fall out. The next area of potential support could fall (based on calculations Sep 23) to between 340 - 350. However, there is still 6 trade periods left in the month. End of the month calculation could result in a lower target range being generated.
AMEX:SPY
by priceprophet
1
SPX: The 4 Horseman of the Apocalypse"When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the fourth living creature saying, “Come!” Behold, I saw a horse, pale greenish gray. The name of the one riding on it was Death" Hello, and welcome to the Apocalypse :D With SPY/SPX recent moves, I thought I'd scan history to see if there's anything unique about the pattern we see today. I wasn't disappointed. The best way I can describe it so far is a decline + 3 bear market rallies that I highlight here (weekly charts): This pattern has been present 5 other times in history, 4 of which ended in declines ranging from -37% to -56%. After the 3rd bear market rally, a 4th comes. The 4th horseman of the apocalypse signaling the end is nigh! Keep in mind that recognizing patterns has an element of bias to it and these were all identified to the best of my abilities. Hmmmmmm... 1966 23% move down from the highs 238 days from top to bottom 1968 37% move down from the highs 532 days from top to bottom 1973 50% move down from the highs 630 days from top to bottom 2000 50% move down from the highs 693 days from top to bottom 2007 56% move down from the highs 511 days from top to bottom Another interesting thing to note is that they seem to happen in sets of 2 with the second downturn moving 10%-13% lower than the first low. 1968-1974 2000-2009 If this pattern does in fact play out, it would mean this chart can guide you into the future of when to buy for the next bull market, and when to sell before the next decline. What's also interesting to take note of is that although our current issues of inflation are more related to the 70s than 2000-08, the market movements are more in line with the speed of 2000-08. 68-73 slowly fell from the top and then quickly fell to the bottom whereas 00-08 quickly fell from the top and slowly fell towards the bottom (time wise). For that reason, most of my predictions are based on 00-08. Lastly I'll post my projection for the end of this recession. You can look at my previous post which mapped the exact moves of 00 and 08 based on time and percentage.
SP:SPXShort
by PlayerNonZero
#spy What was up with the quick pump on Friday?Hey wasup, SPY SPY happy MONDAY TRADERS I hope you all had a great weekend. Unfortunately Bitcoin didn't lmao. Its really funny what they did on Friday 30 mins before closing . If the dollar stays around $109.70 or above $110.00 you can kiss all of that pump goodbye and see you again at 383 -385. luckily for me I placed puts right. before close on Friday . Stuff like that is tooo good to be true. I will continue to post my out look of the market through out the week. If you would like for me to post my entries for other stocks this week let me know and I will post them and give you my IG. Please do not get caught short in puts or calls. minimize your losses and take advantage of your executions. Fed meets this week so you know what that means . They tried to price in the interest rates last week so they can pump it up this week just to catch you with your pants down by the end of the month don't say I didn't warn you.
AMEX:SPY
by Courtneyd
3