Get started

Spyshort

$SPY bulls in charge? maybe for now..$SPY momentum has been strong for the past few weeks. after the market switched gears to the upside after the government lifted off the covid restrictions this summer, and ok earnings in some of the big tech stocks couple weeks ago. i believe after the restrictions got lifted off, it helped the economy to get back on its feet. but despite the covid restriction being lit off, it created massive supply chain issues, and inflation. this is due to massive back log of the supplies that didn't get sold in the past 2 years because of the covid. Also, small businesses try to make up for the loss of profits during the pandemic. here's my day trade price target for SPY on FRIDAY 08/15/22. ============================================================ For calls; buy above $429.17 and sell at 431.28 or above For puts, buy below 426.49 and sell at 424.17 or below ============================================================ Welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play ) I am going to explain where I think this stock might possibly go the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play. If you have any questions or suggestions on which stocks I should analyze, please leave a comment below. If you enjoyed this analysis, I would appreciate it if you smashed that LIKE or BOOST button and maybe consider following my channel.
AMEX:SPYLong
by CHRIS_B58
SPY to the downsideSPY looks to be developing a reverse head and shoulders to take on the wall. I don't see the volume justifying us getting over this current wall so I assume we will develop support at about 390-395 so we can take on the 420 walls if we even get past the 415 walls. A lot of market maker activity, very obvious shorts that are pumping in premarket which makes me assume we're in for a drop. I also assume based on the price levels of bitcoin, BTC will go test 21k and then 19k if that fails. Ideally, BTC catches at that support, and both BTC and SPY rally and I get into Microstrategy 2024 leaps and plan my retirement. I'll probably buy one when BTC hits 21 and average down at 19. They are about 10k per option for 300c leaps and if BTC rips with MicroStrategy holding then each option will go for at least 70-90k if BTC goes back to even 60k based on Microstrategy hoarding BTC during this bear market.
AMEX:SPYShort
by kibakilla33
SPY Analysis (Mid-August)This post is in response to requests for me to give a shorter-term analysis of where SPY might go. Right now the outlook is generally neutral or muted with both bullish and bearish biases battling it out. I will present both bullish and bearish cases for you to weigh. Bull Case Daily chart: On the daily chart, SPY is clearly in an uptrend. It has broken the downtrend line that was in place throughout the first half of 2022, and it has pierced the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates a trend reversal. One could argue that SPY's muted movement on the daily chart in August is consolidation before a move higher. Some may argue the daily chart is an ascending triangle, which is bullish. Advance-Decline Line: The ADL has broken out on the daily chart, which strongly suggests "the bottom" is already in. Volatility: The daily VIX chart suggests the uptrend in volatility that existed in the first half of 2022 may have broken down. Quantitative Tightening: Many analysts believe that the Fed will not tighten as much as it has projected and that it will pivot to less tightening, which is good for stocks. Bull Run: Log-linear regression supports the conclusion that the bull run since the Great Recession has not broken. Unemployment: The unemployment rate is at a historic low, this will support consumer spending. Historical analysis: Using historical analysis that takes into account the entire history of its price action, it's statistically probable that SPY will close the year higher than the close of June. Oscillators: The monthly Stochastic RSI is trending back up which will likely carry SPY higher into the close of 2022. Inflation: With inflation subsiding in the short term, this may create a tailwind for the stock market. Accumulation: The daily chart of SPY appears to show Wyckoff accumulation in my opinion. This means that smart money has been buying. Bear Case Weekly Chart: As you can see in the chart above, the weekly chart of SPY is still largely in a downtrend with overhead resistance/supply. The Stochastic RSI is ready to oscillate back down which may bring prices lower. Advance-Decline Line: The ADL is moving back down on the daily chart and still remains suppressed on the higher time frames. Volatility: The weekly VIX chart is near support and its weekly Stochastics RSI is ready to oscillate up. August through October generally sees higher volatility. Further, the VVIX or volatility of volatility is extremely compressed. Seasonality: August through late-October typically see muted stock market returns, if not actual declines. Yield Curve Inversion: The 10Y/2Y yield has reached an extreme level of inversion indicating a significant recession is likely in the coming year(s). The 10Y/3M is also nearing inversion. Although these are leading indicators, and markets usually go up after these are triggered, immediately after they're triggered some investors get jittery and stay on the sidelines. Quantitative Tightening: The era of limitless quantitative easing is definitively over and we're now in a period of unprecedented quantitative tightening. It's highly unlikely that the FED will act in ways that are favorable to a sustained strong bull rally. Stock market returns are likely to be muted, if not outright decline, for years to come. Bull Run: Log-linear regression shows that the post-Great Recession bull run is nearing the end of its lifetime. Multi-timeframe regression analysis shows that there is a 97.5% chance that the bull run that existed since the Great Recession will end within the next 6 years. The rapidity with which the yield curve has inverted leads me to believe that the bull run will end in 2023. Unemployment: Although the employment rate is historically low, this is a lagging indicator. The leading indicator is the weekly initial unemployment claims, which is rising rapidly and at a rate that far outpaces what we saw at the start of the Great Recession. Many people who are losing their jobs now are filling the many vacancies left opened from an overheated economy, which may be why the unemployment rate dropped despite rapidly rising initial claims. Unless the weekly initial claims cool down, this could become a major problem in the months, if not years ahead. Oscillators: The yearly Stochastic RSI looks dangerously close to beginning a years-long process of oscillating down. If this occurs, SPY will at minimum mean revert on its quarterly chart (~340), and at worst fall below the 2nd standard deviation on its quarterly chart (~200). Accumulation: Although the daily chart of SPY appears to show Wyckoff accumulation (in my opinion), smart money loves to flush out longs and trap shorts by forcing prices back down. It's very possible that a price drop that is meant to flush out the longs may happen between now and late October. Geopolitics: The global geopolitical landscape looks very poor right now. Even if the US and China avoid any kind of military engagement, the effects that the situation is having on the economy are already significant. These tensions are accelerating de-globalization which will continue putting inflationary pressures on the supply side, even as the Fed tries to cool demand through tightening. How I am playing the market from mid-August to Late-October: I will play cautiously and defensively as there are bullish and bearish forces battling. The long positions I entered into in June are on trailing stop losses. Many have already been triggered. I am long the VIX until October or the weekly oscillator moves up and appears ready to come back down. I am cautiously adding a very few long positions using regression channels (and other indicators) as there are several beaten-down stocks out there that are quite cheap and unlikely to go down much more. (e.g. I've been saying it for a while but VFC will not get much cheaper than low to mid-40s). I will be long TLT and bonds after they correct on the weekly or if the 10Y rate moves back up close to the terminal rate, and if the Eurodollar Futures are stable. I am avoiding new long positions in crypto until the end of September because August and September are typically the worst performing months for crypto. (I still hold positions I bought in June which are profitable but will sell if crypto drops below my stop loss triggers). Not financial advice, these are just my thoughts. Trade at your own risk.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
15
STONKS WILL GET HAMMERED HARDFundamental PoV: ----------------------------------------- - Fade away recession fear for Q3 - Shift to hawkish Fed - 75 bps rate hike is a done deal - Escalation in Taiwan - Possible another supply disruption Overbought while market buying less hawkish the Jay Powell speech and now all the members turn hawkish. The green street U.S. Friday data confirmed that recession still far ahead, at least this fear will ease for the Q3. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 5.2% 4.9% 5.2% Average Weekly Hours (Jul) 34.6 34.5 34.6 Government Payrolls (Jul) 57.0K -6.0K Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) 30K 17K 27K Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 528K 250K 398K Participation Rate (Jul) 62.1% 62.2% Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 471K 230K 404K U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.7% 6.7% Unemployment Rate (Jul) 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
SP:SPXLong
by TradingCocktail
3
SPY analysis-option and fundmental the big topic of this month and July has been RECESSION . I believe it depends all on the labour market now if we start to see increasing unemployment that could tip us into a recession. this is why I am short on the SPY because I believe this rally will fizzle out because there have been no real positive changes in the macroeconomics currently to fuel this rally, today we have initial jobless claims which will give us a good insight to which way the labour market is moving. which now is the main factor into the decision if we are going into a recession because the realized strength of the consumer is purely based on them receiving an income. Because of their credit card debt, the US consumer heavily relies on credit cards which could possibly mean with the labour market becoming weaker consumer spending could decrease even further as this has already started to happen. another sign that supports my view is that implied volatility has decreased and the lower the implied volatility the lower the premium paid for the option which means it will fall in value. as well as a put-to-call ratio of 1.265 which shows an increase of negativity around the SPY. currently, we have a volatility smirk for the SPY which is where the implied volatility for lower strike prices so this means investors are buying more puts(short position). this option analysis gives us a good insight into which way the SPY will move. on a micro company level, the cost of debt is increasing because of Hawkish rate hikes. if the cost of debt increases the weighted average cost of capital will increase(WACC) so for a company to be creating value its return on invested capital has to be higher than WACC. the reason I have included this is that i gives a good insight into what is actually causing these companies' value to decrease.
AMEX:SPYShort
by harrybergin
3
SPY Trade Idea (BULL TRAP)Here Im using the trend based fib ext. SPY is currently at the June highs and the 1.618 Fib level. Seeing deviation with price making a higher high and the RSI making a lower low on the 4HR. (Bearish) In June fear turned to euphoria in an instant. Talks about the bear market being over started, just like it is now. Spy fell out of an ascending channel after initially getting rejected from the 1.618. (Bearish) In June it took about a week to finally sell off and bull market talks faded in the. background. I think we see a similar story in the next few days and weeks. If you're bullish i would be patient, things dont go up in a straight line. The RSI on the daily is at levels not seen since March. VIX is on a strong support which has generally marked local tops. If you notice there has been 3 times we previously touched this support and every time has been a sell signal. Same goes with the top resistance, every time we touched resistance it marked a local bottom in the stock market as you can see with the red and green arrows. In the coming weeks I am bearish on SPY and anticipate a retest of 390, a break below that and the next level is 380. However coming off one of the best months in a long time the medium to long term future looks bright for the stock market. We look to be forming a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern on higher time frames and if this is the case we should see strong support in the 380-390 range. (This is where Im swinging long if the market gives us these levels). I would also like to see VIX at resistance to further confirm the trade. I wouldn't be surprised if VIX broke out of this wedge, and give us the 40+ everyone has been calling for which if in fact we do reach those levels on VIX i think that would be the max opportunity to go long on the market. We will cross that bridge when/if we get there. Ill soon be posting ideas on individual stocks, let me know if you guys agree or disagree!
AMEX:SPY
by anamaly
SPX-Sell the rip!!!Last weekend I posted about wickless gaps and how those are continuation patterns. I also made a statement that I did not think we would see SPX at 4K for a while. The above chart shows my thinking process since many traders on TV are calling for a possible retrace to 4020 levels. IMO the June 6th weekly candle made a very bold statement...it bearishly crossed the wickless bull gap that was created March/April of 2021 and then proceeded to make it own bearish wickless gap. ***In early May we tested the 4K area and closed below it on the weekly however the following week (May 23rd) we bullishly crossed right though that wickless gap. THIS WAS THE BULL CASE-we needed to HOLD this level for bullish confirmation but the bullish case has failed.*** On May 19, 2022: “What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we're going to keep pushing until we see that,” Powell said Tuesday during a Wall Street Journal live event. “If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of 'neutral,' we won't hesitate at all to do that.” Wed, June 15, 2022: Powell announced a 75 bps rates hike vs. a 50 bps rate hike that was anticipated in May. Moral of the story-Don't Fight the Fed. (Of note on this chart are uncleared gaps on the weekly SPX-there are a couple even lower than 2200)
SP:SPXShort
by Vixtine
16