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SPX may retest 2018Megaphone @3500 or 2009 channel@3kAs I’ve warning several times that the worst is not yet over despite many bear-market rallies, SPX was rejected by the blue dotted midline of the upchannel from 2009 & was unable to fill the downgap near 4k which instantly became a resistance now. BEWARE: lower lows are coming with SPX barely holding a previous low @3820, a FIB 0.382 retracement from pandemic low. The next strong support will be 3500, the FIB 0.50 level, a 27% drop from ATH. 3500 is a confluence of 3 impt FIB levels. Besides the 0.50 that I mentioned, it is also the 1.618 FIB ext of the 3820 abc relief rally & the 0.854 FIB ext of the 4117 Feb 24 invasion low abc relief rally. 3500 is also the projected zone where SPX may retest the green 2018 Megaphone top. WORST CASE SCENARIO: If my green support zone @3400 to 3500 fails, then 3000 to 3200 (yellow zone) will be the maximum pain zone. 3200 is the FIB 0.618 retracement from pandemic low. This yellow zone is also the projected area where SPX may come to retest the red 1995 TL or the blue lower side of 2009 upchannel. This big ABC capitulation phase will end wave IV sometime near 4Q2022 & the last melt-up rally of wave V may end somewhere in the 5100 to 5400 zone near the top of the upchannel around middle of 2023. Not trading advice
TVC:SPXShort
by xtremerider8
3
SPY AnalysisThis chart shows a trend-based Fibonacci retracement. The trend points used are (1) The market high right before the 2020 selloff, (2) the market low from the 2020 selloff, and (3) the most recent market high (in January 2022). As the chart shows, SPY has nearly perfect retraced back to the Golden Ratio. My expectation is that SPY will rally into and throughout July 2022. What are Fibonacci numbers? Fibonacci numbers are merely a series of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the prior two numbers. As the series grows, the ratio of each Fibonacci number to the previous Fibonacci number in the series converges to 1.618. Meanwhile, the ratio of each Fibonacci number to the next Fibonacci number converges to 0.618. These ratios often help us mathematically predict important support and resistance points of price action. Do Fibonacci numbers actually work? The stock market has always conformed to Fibonacci numbers both because many traders use them and it is thus self-fulfilling, but also because Fibonacci numbers help us mathematically approximate the ebbs and flow of crowd psychology and the fear and greed which dictate market participants' actions. Each time fear takes hold, market participants sell and cause price to fall back to a previous Fibonacci number (often the Golden Ratio, reflected as the proportion: 0.618). Then once the pervasive fear wanes, market participants begin to get greedy as they see a buying opportunity in the lower prices of the market. The fear that once caused selling then shifts to a fear of missing out on profit, and greed regains control of the market. Just as selling begets selling, buying begets buying, and so price continues up to a higher Fibonacci number, thus forming a pattern called the Golden Spiral. If you don't believe that the stock market has always conformed to Fibonacci numbers, try drawing a Fibonacci retracement level on the S&P 500 (SPX) from its all-time low in 1877 to its high in 1929 just before the Great Depression. You will see that the low point of the Great Recession was, of course, a Fibonacci ratio. This is just one of an endless amount of Fibonacci sequences that the stock market has followed over the years. Fibonacci sequences dictate price action on all timeframes. To the uninformed person, these endless golden spirals that dictate price action on multiple timeframes simply seems random...
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
8
SPX Wickless Gap Down Analysis/Continuation of TrendChart says it all.. On June 13th SPX opened the week by heading straight down, it tried to rally on Wednesday on the Fed news of a rate hike (LOL) but could never get above Monday's high and then failed miserably the rest of the week to produce a bearish weekly closing candle. And this was a week after an already bearish close the previous week which produced a somewhat rare wickless gap down. A couple of things to note that confirm the bearish nature of this gap down: 1. It gapped down to open below the .236 Fib re-tracement from the March 2009 low to Jan 2022 high (my bold red horizontal line on this chart)...I understand this isn't a "key" fib but it is one that is used and should be notated. 2. The gap down to weekly close produced a bearish weekly candle smack in between the 150 and 200 EMA. 3. The SPX closed the week with bearish Ichimoku confirmation when the lagging span closed the weekly below the cloud. 4. When viewing this chart during the uptrend you can clearly see these weekly wickless gaps were a CONTINUATION OF TREND. Sometimes the gaps filled and sometimes they didn't (until now...) 5. DJI closed the week below 30K...I was watching DJI on Friday at close minute by minute and they could have accomplished a closing above 30K but the last 4 minutes were a complete bearish breakdown. 6. There were some who felt a .75 vs. .50 rate hike would cause a rally because this would mean "the fed is serious about dealing with inflation" but market has spoke...the .75 rate hike is not going to rally the market otherwise we'd have a weekly hammer candle at closing this week and we would have never had that wickless gap down (someone always knows the news before it's known publicly....) What I can say with relative certainty based upon reviewing this chart (obviously nothing is 100% certain) is that we will not re-test the 4000 level on SPX. I'm sure a lot of traders have this marked as an area that it should re-test which is exactly why it just won't get back up there. If you look at the chart you can see there was a lot of resistance around the 3930-3940 area during the uptrend before it "broke out" above 4000 (which wasn't re-tested after it broke above until recently) If you are looking for a good risk adjusted "short/sell" position, it would be a re-test of the 3800-3940 area with a SL above 4000. But maybe Wednesday's re-test at 3837.56 is all we will get...only time will tell.
SP:SPXShort
by Vixtine
7
SPY Likely in Final Bottoming PhaseThis is a monthly chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with the Ichimoku Cloud indicator applied. Outside of the context of recessions, SPY has typically bottomed after finding support on the Base Line (red line) of the Ichimoku Cloud. Although SPY has currently fallen below this line, this does not necessarily mean the Base Line has failed, more likely SPY is simply in its final bottoming phase and is forming the tail, or lower wick, of the monthly candle. It is very conceivable that June will finish the month closer to the Base Line, which if the case could send SPY higher, in the months to come as the trend will continue. There are quite a few additional indicators and oscillators that suggest this may be the case. However, if SPY finishes the month clearly lower this Base Line, then that would be quite bearish and would cause reason to believe that the long-term bull run is perhaps ending.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
7
SPY Big Fed Rate Hike is Coming! If you haven`t noticed Jamie Dimon`s prediction: Then you should know that The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a half of a percentage point for the second consecutive time on June 15. More rate hikes are likely in the coming months because consumer prices rose 8.6% YoY through May. Inflation is at 40 year high! Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO: "Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself." Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. If oil reaches $140 - 150 this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
2
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 10,2022 As CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM EST, tomorrow is a big day for traders and investors. Make sure not to trade on news or assumptions. Today we saw a massive sell-off at the end hour of the market trading session. There will be a bounce upward tomorrow for correction. The critical level of resistance, for now, is 405.18-405.71, and the main one is 407-408. I'm saying this because on multiple timeframes like 15m,30m,45,1hr, and 2hr, and RSI is sitting on 30, which means an oversold area. Don't get trapped in following the trend but wait for confirmation to short on the resistance area(to be on the safe side). Moreover, looking at VIX, it got rejected at the resistance level of 26.25. If it breaks the resistance tomorrow, opening a short position might be a good idea. Another scenario is that it cools off in the area of 25.50 from their excellent idea to open a safe short position. This is just my opinion but looking at the sell-off volume was a sign of continuation of the sell-off.
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn11669057
SPY Short Based on Support and resistance Pivots 2HRReviewing the 2hr timeframe on Spy a pattern emerged of key Pivot points, if you look closely the areas highlighted with a Arrow all are key Support/ Resistance levels, where we pivot, I beleive we happen to be at one right now. If we go back to test our highs and reject once again this will be a stronger indication of reversal for me, Only if we gain that steam to head back up. Next levels to watch based on this Support resistance method would be 395/398, this coorelates to my last post based on a simple pathway down that would make sense, Decided to dig a little deeper to see why this simple chart i quickly posted worked out so well for me, and After reviewing I think our next leg down could be major, Considering there is always the possibility we do go back up to test our resistance and we break it, watch 427 for the next indication on where we could be heading. As always not financial advice just my opinion. Thanks guys! goodluck to all
AMEX:SPYShort
by SmartFlip
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 2,2022 Based on today's economic news: ISM Manufacturing (Apr) 56.1 vs 54.5 Expected JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 11.4M vs 11.35M Expected The market was up the first 30 minutes of the session, and then after the news, it got rejected on resistance and then bounced back from the support of 407. Also, keep in mind that vix is on a support level of 25.50. If 25 breaks market will go up. If not, SPY will make new lows. Two Scenario for tomorrow: -Break below 407 can lead to 398-400 -Break above 413 to 416( I don't think so, but I can be wrong as well)
AMEX:SPYShort
by UnknownUnicorn11669057
A Silent Build Using the SPY Weekly Chart, I.D Your Pivots-WicksWassup people, I have another "Silent Build" here. A quick 3 min video on the movement of the market & to keep in mind always use your wicks or pivots as a price action guide. Always use your higher timeframes just as much as you use your lower timeframes. Taking a look at SPY's weekly chart, we see the COVID recovery from Mar-Aug. In Aug price stalled & went rangebound for over 2 months. Then in Oct, a week before the U.S election the market printed a Double Bottom Pattern & one week after the election the market broke out into new ATH's & never looked back. That run lasted a year from Nov 2020 until Dec 2021. This crazy Bull market has been on fire, but let's be honest, with all the money the government was dumping into the economy we knew some pain was ahead & here it is. If you were keeping tabs on your higher timeframes, you could have begin to get in front of it from Nov 2021 up to Jan 2022. Some of the key pivot levels on the way down have already been broken. 426 & 405 to be exact. We had a strong bear leg from April of last month until May. Here's a fun fact, historically when the market sells off for 6-7 weeks straight, it usually was the pre-cursor to a bear market & recession. Go pull up your chart & pinpoint the years: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2011 & 2022 to grasp my POV. The market usually bounces after 4 week selloffs. This time around it kept rolling over for another 3 weeks! Investors/Traders should start to pay attention if they haven't been before. Everything isn't a "Dip Buy" some investors & traders have & may continue to find that out the hard way. Overall, my downside levels are 383-320. With 320 being a pre-election level. Granted these levels are long-term levels. You have to account for bounces and minor recoveries as well. The market could just as well reverse back into the range of 404-470 over the course of 2022. In the case of any continued downside movement, I will keep 383, 378, 367, 360 & 320 has my targets. Hope everyone collects a bag rather we bounce or roll!! Peaaacceeeeeeee!!!!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DayTraderEarl