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Why ORB and VWAP Have a High Success Rate - Part 2Previously in the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). In Part 1, we dove into the basics and all the important aspects of the ORB, but now let's explore why these strategies often lead to high win rates. The Psychology Behind ORB The ORB is powerful because it captures the market's initial reaction to overnight news and pre-market sentiment. Think of it like the opening scene of a movie: it sets the tone for what’s to come. When the market breaks above or below this range, it’s like the plot thickening—traders jump in, driving momentum in that direction. This momentum is often self-reinforcing, leading to sustained moves that traders can capitalize on. VWAP: The Institutional Trader’s Compass VWAP, on the other hand, is not just another line on the chart. It's the line in the sand for many institutional traders. It represents the average price weighted by volume, and it’s where big players often aim to execute their trades to ensure they’re getting a fair deal. When the price is above VWAP, it’s a sign of strength; below, it signals weakness. This makes VWAP an anchor point for many strategies, creating natural support and resistance levels. The Power of Combining ORB and VWAP Now, let’s bring it all together. When you combine ORB and VWAP, you’re essentially stacking two powerful tools that capture both the early market sentiment and the equilibrium price level that institutional traders care about. For instance, if the price breaks out of the opening range and stays above VWAP, it’s like a green light signalling that the bulls are in control. On the other hand, if the price breaks down and stays below VWAP, the bears likely have the upper hand. The chart you're seeing is a perfect example of this dynamic. Notice how the price respects the VWAP and reacts strongly around the opening range levels. These reactions are not random—they’re the market’s way of telling us where the big players are positioning themselves. To Recap All These The high success rate of ORB and VWAP strategies isn’t just about the numbers; it’s about understanding market psychology and where the big money is flowing. By incorporating these tools into your trading, you’re aligning yourself with the natural rhythm of the market, increasing your chances of being on the winning side of the trade. This combination gives traders a structured approach to navigate the chaos of the markets, and when used consistently, it can lead to more reliable and profitable trades.
AMEX:SPY
by Deno_Trading
SPY 2-Hour Chart Analysis - August 28, 2024Double Trouble is the name of the game here, and it’s no joke. As you can see SPY just dipped below a critical support level, and things could get tricky if buyers don’t step in soon. What’s Happening? SPY has been bouncing around within a tight range for the past few days, but today’s action saw it break below the 554.93 support level (highlighted by the yellow dashed line). This level has been key in holding the price up, and now that it’s breached, we could be in for a rough ride. Why Double Trouble? Here I am referring to the fact that SPY is now stuck between two crucial zones: the broken support around 554.93 and the next significant support level down near 551.00. If the price falls to this lower support, we could see even more downward pressure, potentially leading to a deeper sell-off. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: Look for potential resistance to form around the 554.93 level now that it’s broken. If SPY can reclaim this level, it might signal a reversal, but if not, the bears could stay in control. Support: The next big support is down near 551.00. If SPY continues to fall, this is the level that needs to hold to prevent further losses. What’s Next? We’re at a pivotal point. A break back above 554.93 could give bulls a lifeline, but if SPY continues to slide, the 551.00 level will be the last line of support before more significant downside risk comes into play. Stay cautious and keep an eye on these critical levels as we head into the next trading sessions. I am starting to believe that market is in a delicate position, and how it reacts here will set the tone for the days to come.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Deno_Trading
2
$SPY 8/12 - 8/16- Massive panic sell off last week and a quick quick recovery BUT we are still overall red for the month - If price makes higher highs above $534 lvls we most likely will keep pushing higher so we will look for calls - IF price rejects and starts to make lower lows as well as retest previous demand zones then we should look for puts - KEEP IN MIND there is PPI 8/13, CPI 8/14, and Retail sales + Unemployment 8/15 - Earnings for Retail Companies are next week as well so keep an eye on NYSE:HD , NYSE:WMT , NYSE:BABA for any major moves
AMEX:SPY
by Ubaidy100
$SPY market top? 50%+ correction incoming?Contrary to what everyone believes is going to happen: "We're going to see a new ATH by the end of 2024 then we decline after" "There's no way they're going to let the market fall in an election year" I think we're about to start a historic correction to retest the lows from covid. Since October, price action has gone parabolic, and normally when parabolas break we see a large correction. There's a lot of catalysts that can drive the market lower from here. High rates, other central banks cutting more aggressively than us, policy mistakes, election uncertainty, etc. for those that care about fundamentals. However, my assessment of the chart is that we're at a market top here and we're going to start our decline lower in the near future. I think this move is likely to happen in the timeframe that everyone thinks we'll see new highs in (so in the next 6-9 months). If you're long, I think it's a good idea to hedge here and or set tight stops, because the move down will happen faster than most people think is possible, should it play out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
9
$SPY Forecast For Years To Comeplease dont take my opinion as financial advice i'm just a 17 year old with some speculations. with that being said let me explain myself. With the fed pausing still i believe we will keep rallying till we see our first cut once we get that first cut it'll be the market top. The fed has been sitting on their hands for way too long and with inflation sneaking back up i dont see it getting better until its too late. stuff will start breaking soon and it'll just put us more and more into a downward spiral. going into 2025 we will be in a bear market and throughout 2025 we will be trying to fight a spike of inflation which will scare the market and bring us down to 2022 highs and if shit hits the fan we will continue to see downside going into 2026. the battle against inflation isnt a quick fix and this will take time (a couple years) we will eventually recover but it wont be till we see the fed's inflation goal of 2% for a couple months of consistency that'll be our green light for ATH. I will be scaling into end of year shorts starting at $550, $560, and final $570 im not missing this opportunity with the stock market this overbought knowing that the dot plot forecasts higher inflation to come next year. Taking profits on the way down as more data comes out. Thank you for your time and i will be open to hearing others opinion.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bullishbrowsing
$SPY update: Idea hasn't changed, only the timing. $480 next.Update: Largely the same idea, just the timing changed. I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls. Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480. The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area. While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks. Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
35
ICT Short setup SPY swing trade, retracement trade👋Hello Traders, Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H4 or higher timeframe ICT Short setup in SPY for Swing trade. Of course SPY is in up trend in Daily chart, so this is a retracement trade for reference. Or you could consider to buy SPY after reaching the demand zone marked on chart. Please refer to the details Stop loss, FVG(Sell Zone),open for take profit. For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview. Have a good day! Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ICT_Trader_SB
S&P500 ETF Trust (SPY) Fell 0.55% Today is the Bullish Run Over?Economic indicators are crucial for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending May 23, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 0.52%, while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 1.75%. This article examines three indicators from last week — existing home sales, new home sales, and consumer sentiment. These data points provide an update on the current state of the housing market and consumer attitudes about the current and future strength of the economy. Existing home sales fell for a second straight month in April as elevated mortgage rates and increased home prices continue to weaken demand. The median price for an existing home sold last month was $407,600, an all-time high for the month of April, marking the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year increases for existing homes. New home sales fell 4.7% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000 units, falling short of the expected 677,000 units. April’s sales are 7.7% below what they were a year ago, marking the first annual decline in over a year. Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in six months, according to this month’s final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey measuring consumers’ opinions with regard to the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. A closer look at May’s report revealed that consumers are concerned over the labor market, high interest rates, income growth, and inflation. The outlook for the stock market's most important driver just keeps getting better. S&P 500 earnings grew 6% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to data from FactSet. When excluding dismal earnings from Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY), the results were even better, with earnings growing 10%, per Bank of America. Consensus now sees earnings growing 11.4% in 2024, up from a projection of 10.9% on April 5. In 2025, earnings growth estimates have moved up to 14.2% in 2025 from the 11.6% growth seen that day. On Tuesday, UBS Investment Bank US equity strategist Jonathan Golub boosted his year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600 from 5,400, citing "stronger earnings." This trend is supported by further market upside, as economic "tail risks" have declined, with consensus estimates for economic growth increasing throughout the year. Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist Binky Chadha recently told Yahoo Finance that further growth than expected in the economy could help the S&P 500 reach 6,000 by the end of the year. Technically, the S&P500 ETF Trust index price charts depicts the ending of the 5th wave Bullish Divergence pattern which resonates with Elliot Waves theory. The Relative Strength Index which sits at 58.60 signifies weaker growth from the consumer Index.
AMEX:SPYShort
by DEXWireNews
SPX - Enjoy the rally while it last!For those who have been here since 2022 early 2023 when there was so much fear in the market and we called the market had bottomed. I think it was the right call, even though we had a lot of naysayers. Now I think we are nearing the end of this rally which I estimate will be sometime in February 2024. I have two outcomes the green line below which I highly favor and believe that is the path and the grey line which is definitely possible but unlike in my opinion due to election year. Also it looks like we are following the cup and handle. I have also explained in my other ideas why I think we are like in 1990 and 2012 (base on the fear). If the grey line happens, Biden loses the election guaranteed so I am certain the fed will hold the stock market at least until after the election. Give a like if you find helpful
SP:SPXLong
by BlackisKing
27