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SPX Wickless Gap Down Analysis/Continuation of TrendChart says it all.. On June 13th SPX opened the week by heading straight down, it tried to rally on Wednesday on the Fed news of a rate hike (LOL) but could never get above Monday's high and then failed miserably the rest of the week to produce a bearish weekly closing candle. And this was a week after an already bearish close the previous week which produced a somewhat rare wickless gap down. A couple of things to note that confirm the bearish nature of this gap down: 1. It gapped down to open below the .236 Fib re-tracement from the March 2009 low to Jan 2022 high (my bold red horizontal line on this chart)...I understand this isn't a "key" fib but it is one that is used and should be notated. 2. The gap down to weekly close produced a bearish weekly candle smack in between the 150 and 200 EMA. 3. The SPX closed the week with bearish Ichimoku confirmation when the lagging span closed the weekly below the cloud. 4. When viewing this chart during the uptrend you can clearly see these weekly wickless gaps were a CONTINUATION OF TREND. Sometimes the gaps filled and sometimes they didn't (until now...) 5. DJI closed the week below 30K...I was watching DJI on Friday at close minute by minute and they could have accomplished a closing above 30K but the last 4 minutes were a complete bearish breakdown. 6. There were some who felt a .75 vs. .50 rate hike would cause a rally because this would mean "the fed is serious about dealing with inflation" but market has spoke...the .75 rate hike is not going to rally the market otherwise we'd have a weekly hammer candle at closing this week and we would have never had that wickless gap down (someone always knows the news before it's known publicly....) What I can say with relative certainty based upon reviewing this chart (obviously nothing is 100% certain) is that we will not re-test the 4000 level on SPX. I'm sure a lot of traders have this marked as an area that it should re-test which is exactly why it just won't get back up there. If you look at the chart you can see there was a lot of resistance around the 3930-3940 area during the uptrend before it "broke out" above 4000 (which wasn't re-tested after it broke above until recently) If you are looking for a good risk adjusted "short/sell" position, it would be a re-test of the 3800-3940 area with a SL above 4000. But maybe Wednesday's re-test at 3837.56 is all we will get...only time will tell.
SP:SPXShort
by Vixtine
7
SPY Likely in Final Bottoming PhaseThis is a monthly chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with the Ichimoku Cloud indicator applied. Outside of the context of recessions, SPY has typically bottomed after finding support on the Base Line (red line) of the Ichimoku Cloud. Although SPY has currently fallen below this line, this does not necessarily mean the Base Line has failed, more likely SPY is simply in its final bottoming phase and is forming the tail, or lower wick, of the monthly candle. It is very conceivable that June will finish the month closer to the Base Line, which if the case could send SPY higher, in the months to come as the trend will continue. There are quite a few additional indicators and oscillators that suggest this may be the case. However, if SPY finishes the month clearly lower this Base Line, then that would be quite bearish and would cause reason to believe that the long-term bull run is perhaps ending.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
7
SPY Big Fed Rate Hike is Coming! If you haven`t noticed Jamie Dimon`s prediction: Then you should know that The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a half of a percentage point for the second consecutive time on June 15. More rate hikes are likely in the coming months because consumer prices rose 8.6% YoY through May. Inflation is at 40 year high! Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO: "Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself." Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. If oil reaches $140 - 150 this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
2
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 10,2022 As CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM EST, tomorrow is a big day for traders and investors. Make sure not to trade on news or assumptions. Today we saw a massive sell-off at the end hour of the market trading session. There will be a bounce upward tomorrow for correction. The critical level of resistance, for now, is 405.18-405.71, and the main one is 407-408. I'm saying this because on multiple timeframes like 15m,30m,45,1hr, and 2hr, and RSI is sitting on 30, which means an oversold area. Don't get trapped in following the trend but wait for confirmation to short on the resistance area(to be on the safe side). Moreover, looking at VIX, it got rejected at the resistance level of 26.25. If it breaks the resistance tomorrow, opening a short position might be a good idea. Another scenario is that it cools off in the area of 25.50 from their excellent idea to open a safe short position. This is just my opinion but looking at the sell-off volume was a sign of continuation of the sell-off.
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn11669057
SPY Short Based on Support and resistance Pivots 2HRReviewing the 2hr timeframe on Spy a pattern emerged of key Pivot points, if you look closely the areas highlighted with a Arrow all are key Support/ Resistance levels, where we pivot, I beleive we happen to be at one right now. If we go back to test our highs and reject once again this will be a stronger indication of reversal for me, Only if we gain that steam to head back up. Next levels to watch based on this Support resistance method would be 395/398, this coorelates to my last post based on a simple pathway down that would make sense, Decided to dig a little deeper to see why this simple chart i quickly posted worked out so well for me, and After reviewing I think our next leg down could be major, Considering there is always the possibility we do go back up to test our resistance and we break it, watch 427 for the next indication on where we could be heading. As always not financial advice just my opinion. Thanks guys! goodluck to all
AMEX:SPYShort
by SmartFlip
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 2,2022 Based on today's economic news: ISM Manufacturing (Apr) 56.1 vs 54.5 Expected JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 11.4M vs 11.35M Expected The market was up the first 30 minutes of the session, and then after the news, it got rejected on resistance and then bounced back from the support of 407. Also, keep in mind that vix is on a support level of 25.50. If 25 breaks market will go up. If not, SPY will make new lows. Two Scenario for tomorrow: -Break below 407 can lead to 398-400 -Break above 413 to 416( I don't think so, but I can be wrong as well)
AMEX:SPYShort
by UnknownUnicorn11669057
A Silent Build Using the SPY Weekly Chart, I.D Your Pivots-WicksWassup people, I have another "Silent Build" here. A quick 3 min video on the movement of the market & to keep in mind always use your wicks or pivots as a price action guide. Always use your higher timeframes just as much as you use your lower timeframes. Taking a look at SPY's weekly chart, we see the COVID recovery from Mar-Aug. In Aug price stalled & went rangebound for over 2 months. Then in Oct, a week before the U.S election the market printed a Double Bottom Pattern & one week after the election the market broke out into new ATH's & never looked back. That run lasted a year from Nov 2020 until Dec 2021. This crazy Bull market has been on fire, but let's be honest, with all the money the government was dumping into the economy we knew some pain was ahead & here it is. If you were keeping tabs on your higher timeframes, you could have begin to get in front of it from Nov 2021 up to Jan 2022. Some of the key pivot levels on the way down have already been broken. 426 & 405 to be exact. We had a strong bear leg from April of last month until May. Here's a fun fact, historically when the market sells off for 6-7 weeks straight, it usually was the pre-cursor to a bear market & recession. Go pull up your chart & pinpoint the years: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2011 & 2022 to grasp my POV. The market usually bounces after 4 week selloffs. This time around it kept rolling over for another 3 weeks! Investors/Traders should start to pay attention if they haven't been before. Everything isn't a "Dip Buy" some investors & traders have & may continue to find that out the hard way. Overall, my downside levels are 383-320. With 320 being a pre-election level. Granted these levels are long-term levels. You have to account for bounces and minor recoveries as well. The market could just as well reverse back into the range of 404-470 over the course of 2022. In the case of any continued downside movement, I will keep 383, 378, 367, 360 & 320 has my targets. Hope everyone collects a bag rather we bounce or roll!! Peaaacceeeeeeee!!!!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DayTraderEarl
Are we at a S&P market top? Big picture view suggests yes.This 2W candle looks like it marks a turning point in the stock market. I often use Heikin Ashi candles to see when trend reversals are happening on larger timeframes and we seem to be getting our first red candle since 2020. What's notable about this candle compared to the two that we had previously is that the body of it suggests a trend change and not a pause in momentum. If I had to take a guess on what happens here, it's that we find support at the blue line and move sideways for the next month until the next two week pivot at the end of October 2021. Then I think the market is likely to correct from November onwards. The trigger will be us losing support at the top blue line which will signal a further downfall. I'm exercising caution here and will likely be moving into cash over the next month or so. Of course, we'll have to see how the chart plays out with time and this is really just to provide a macro view. I've provided dates of key dates to watch on the charts and levels of support on the way down if we were to lose that top blue trend line as support.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
1
$SPX: Meltup to $6k in 2022?? No, Meltdown: $2.7k-$3.5k There's been a lot of people that have been conditioned to buy the dip over the last two years, because every time that's happened, it's led to higher prices. There's people making bold calls that after this "small dip" we're going to turn around and meltup to $6k. I don't buy it. Looking at the structure of the chart, price action already looks bearish on lower timeframes but is starting to show bearish signs on higher timeframes (both the 2W and 1M timeframes). We just broke down out of this large upward channel, Heikin Ashi candles are showing a bearish trend forming on high timeframes and ichimoku is showing a wide separation of the tenkan and kijun on the monthly timeframe indicating that price needs to snap back to find a balance. 3 indications to me that price is going to move much further down. If you were to look at historical price action on this chart, you'd see that anytime there's been a wide separation of the tenkan and kijun, price as retraced. The widest separation came before the March 2020 crash. The spread between the two lines now is far greater than during that period indicating to me that the snap back down could be a violent one. My base case is that we fall somewhere between 20%-40% from these levels before continuing a move to the upside. I think this downside move is likely to take place this year 2022, and that we will bottom either later this year or in Q1 in next year. I've marked out key months for pivots in price action on the chart. Will update my views if I see things change.
SP:SPXShort
by benjihyam
7
$SPY to fall to $392-$348? Here's why I think it could happen.Over the last couple of weeks, I've tried to play the long side of some stocks expecting a bounce after a fall since November. However, since the bounces that I was expecting never materialized, I decided to reexamine the chart and I saw something that I hadn't seen before when I zoomed out. If we look at the chart of $SPY, you can see that the candle from March 2nd, retested that key support at $441 as resistance. Since I have Heikin Ashi candles on, you can also see that we got our first flat topped red candle on it. 2 in a row, will usually mean the trend will continue in the direction that it's going. On top of that, the Chikou (the lagging span of Ichimoku) just broke through the price action also indicating that price wants to move further down. All these signs lead me to believe that there's further downside to come. The first logical support level would be at $392. If we can't hold that level, then I think we'd see a retest of the $348 level (which is the 50% retracement from the March lows). I personally lean towards the second support getting tested at which point I'd become a buyer of equities. Let's see how price action develops over the coming weeks. The dates on the chart are key dates to look for pivots in price action.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
9
SPYToday we saw a massive sell-off from all the sectors because of what Powell said yesterday. Powell mentioned in the interview yesterday that they "will continue raising rates until we see Inflation coming down." which is why investors showed a sell-off today. Now looking at the charts. There can be two possibilities tomorrow. The first one is that there can be a continuation of straight downward to 385 level. The second possibility is that there can be a bounce to the 395-397 area and then down again to the 385 level.
AMEX:SPYShort
by UnknownUnicorn11669057
SPY DIE PART 3Looks like we might get another leg lower before a big relief rally starting in June (most likely during OPEX). 20sma continued decline. HUGE sell off today after JPOW's remarks yesterday. Why were they not reflected in price yesterday? "I thought we were gonna have a relief rally after yesterday's bullish run!" Vanna, Charm, dealer positioning, hedges unwinding. It's the same story over and over and over. Bulls needed to get a huge run over the 20sma and recapture it to the upside. They failed to do that. The "rally" that took place over the last week was weak. And it's ominously telling of the further decline that is to come. Seasonality is usually bullish to end the month, but without recapture of that 20d sma, further decline is coming. The lows will be revisited and will likely grind down lower. This is a grinding bear market with occasional rallies here and there. I have a feeling the next face ripper rally will be around June OPEX, where people are going to be overly hedged and all that unwinding into OPEX will lead to explosive movement upwards (coupled with tech earnings imo). Supports listed as always. Unless bulls can explosively move markets higher into tomorrow OPEX and beyond into next week, this market will continue downward as listed above. Best of luck traders. If you're a long term investor, just be in cash. You remain in cash until FED reverses course. There are NO exceptions to this rule. DO NOT FIGHT THE FED! I will reiterate: The FED HAS BEEN CLEAR! They are removing support/liquidity from the markets - the same support/liquidity that propped up the markets to bubble like levels especially the past two years. Now is not the time to yolo on calls. And now is not the time to yolo on puts either. It is a grinding bear. Only experienced traders should trade this. The rest of you should be in cash again as listed above. You're welcome.
AMEX:SPY
by SenesTrades
1