Target reached 3/29/22, bullish close = final bull move (470)At the beginning of the week, I called SPX hitting 4626 and SPY 460 by the end of the week but it seems it has reached to the price a lot faster than expected.
Moving forward, todays close is imperative to future movement as one more bull run might be imminent before the eventual correction. If SPX is to close around the 4620s, I could see it pushing one last time up to a total price of 4700+ specifically 4707. Once reached, there may be more of a reason to short the entire market even if temporarily to 4504.
As for SPY , 470 is possible given the price closes bullish today and follows SPX movement.
Thank you for reading.
Spyshort
Target reached 3/29/22, bullish close = final bull move (4700+)At the beginning of the week , I called SPX hitting 4626 and SPY 460 by the end of the week but it seems it has reached to the price a lot faster than expected.
Moving forward, todays close is imperative to future movement as one more bull run might be imminent before the eventual correction . If SPX is to close around the 4620s , I could see it pushing one last time up to a total price of 4700 + specifically 4707 . Once reached, there may be more of a reason to short the entire market even if temporarily to 4504 .
As for SPY, 470 is possible given the price closes bullish today.
Thank you for reading.
Still. we should see 460 range.. Keeping my eye on 464 or moreI am expecting to see 464 or even hit 470 this week.
I have a call position that will expire in 2 week. Likely I will be closing out my position this Friday.
But be aware, this is a pullback coming and then it will test ATH.
DO NOT SHORT, It is going to be a GREEN WEEK. Just my opinion. I am not a financial advisor. Make sure to look at both perspectives every time you place a trade.
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Jesus said, "I tell you, no; but unless you repent you will all likewise perish." Luke 13 3
Let there be no filthiness nor foolish talk nor crude joking, which are out of place, but instead let there be thanksgiving. Ephesians 5:4
Vix Bullish/Spy May Pullback?We see Vix dropping for a while now while spy is reversing up. As vix approaches its support/demand zone we could see vix pushing back higher, Also might bounce off 200 MA. For that to happen. I want to see vix bounce off of 200 ma and breaking 24.07. This might be a small pullback for vix and instead might reject.
SPY Continued Downside - Hidden DivergenceChart Even t: Bearish Divergences on multiple timeframes. Rising wedge pattern on 65m and lower timeframes.
Confluence : Bearish Divergence on 65m timeframe. Hidden Bearish Divergence on daily timeframe. Rising Wedge pattern (bearish) on 65m and lower timeframes. MACD very wide. Volume decreasing. Death Cross moving average event occurred a few days ago. Price action is nearing old resistance levels along with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. RSI overbought on 65m timeframe.
Trade Idea : Put Swings
Contract Suggestions (depending on Monday's open) :
Best: 4/8/22 450P
Riskier 4/6/22 450P
Riskiest 4/1/22 450P
I will likely buy both the 4/8 and the 4/1 contracts, heavily weighted to the 4/8 contracts to allow this time for this move to play out.
Next week .. we should see 460 range.. Keeping my eye on 464We were about 1 or 2 pip away from 155. Next week I expect to see somewhere between 460 to 470
I will be keeping my eye on target price of 464.
DO NOT SHORT. Just my opinion. I am not a financial advisor.
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Are you a "real" Christian or fake one? Here is what Jesus said to be a "real" Christian.
"37 If you love your father or mother or even your sons and daughters more than me, you are not fit to be my disciples. 38 And unless you are willing to take up your cross and follow me, you are not fit to be my disciples. 39 If you try to save your life, you will lose it. But if you give it up for me, you will surely find it."
Matthew 10 37
Are you living your life for Jesus or for you? I hope you are living your life for him. That is a real Christian according to this bible verse.
SPY still heading to 455 to 460 range... No worriesA little pullback today.. No worries.. It is going to be a Green day tomorrow...
Matthew 12:36-37 ESV
I tell you, on the day of God's judgment people will give account for every careless word they speak, for by your words you will be justified, and by your words you will be condemned.”
Resuming to 455 to 460 range Bottom is already in. No crash this month. I will not be shorting at all unless you were scalping in pullbacks.
For right now, TP is 455 to 460 range.
You must receive the holy spirit as a proof that you belong to Jesus. If you don't have the holy spirit living in you, you are no different a Muslim, Buddhist, or an Atheist. It doesn't matter how many times you say you believe in Jesus. Jesus will send the holy spirit to you acknowledge you belong to him.
Romans 8 16
The Holy Spirit himself bears witness with our spirit that we are children of God
Top of the Top of the TopTake your seats and Prepare for the 4th Turning.
De-dollarization is occurring before our eyes.
The game of musical chairs is coming to an end.
We will be lucky to get away with a debt crisis.
The more likely outcome is a currency crisis.
Your currency is not money, it is fiat. It is important you understand the difference. The thing we call money is fiat credit created by banks via loans. Everything is driven by debt and loans. AKA your life is driven by debt and loans. AKA your life is debt and loans.
How did it get this way?
www.atlantafed.org
But don't you know the Wonderful Wizard of Oz?
Remind me... what does the wizard do in the end?
Note: This is Not financial advice. Just what I see.
SPY Update! Looking attractive here. The trend is a good friend.SPY had been on this strong up trend since the COVID plummet in March 2020. On this chart you can see how it broke the regression trend to the downside.
How low... can you go...?
Notable things to watch:
- The gap that MAY! fill at $400 that can be seen on the daily & weekly time frames.
- FOMC this week; for shits n' giggles.
- Short term outlook - on the Daily time frame the 200 sma (in red) is sitting in the $400 area where the gap MAY! fill.
- Long term outlook - on the weekly time frame you can see that the 200sma (in red) is coming up on the 61.80% ($318.17). (chart attached below)
Just ride the trend & enjoy the ride but use proper risk management. Its all about the journey & the mulah is a by product of it all.
This is not financial advice. This is to be taken as my opinion only!
SPY DIEStill PRE-FOMC so take this with a grain of salt.
What have we seen thus far? Reclaim of 20sma? Kind of... hasn't closed above it in the time period of supportive flows.
Where's it at now? Still in pattern of downtrend.
My supports as listed for the next few weeks. I'm still short.
FOMC may alter short term momentum and price, but medium term --> I think SPY dies to 404, 398, etc.,
Trade idea (IF FOMC goes as planned and FED raises 25 bps) : 03/25/22 SPY 420p
Good luck traders.
S&P500 calls for short - Head & Shoulders TOPFollowed by the Rising Wedge Breakout, we can see very clearly that SP500 lost some momentum - all of this on the background of Fed's Rate Hikes Expectations.
The Head and Shoulders pattern is clear and obvious - let's dig some more important details:
1.Volume Distribution:
The volume distribution in a proper H&S Top should be concetrated on: The left Shoulder, The Head, or both of them - but never high on the right shoulder.
Note that high volume on the left shoulder and on the head are not that significant, while majority of the volume concentrated on the second bottom of the H&S.
The volume distribution here does not support the expected implications of an H&S breakout, and therefore, we should consider a short trade with a bit of suspicious.
2. The Breakout
The first breakout of the Neckline occurred with a little peak in volume - this situation tells the trader to wait for new lower top to test the Resistance of the Neckline.
And indeed, the patient trader received the expected new lower top, and on Friday the power of sellers was present.
The inability to raise above the neckline and the fact that the price rejected from there - was a strong tactical signal for those wanna dive deep into profits.
3. Price Target
By H&S Measurement rules, the objective of minimum potential is 3,865.
When considering the overall Technical picture, the historical resistance from September 2020 (3,592) looks very solid to serve as strong support level.
Conclusion:
Technical wise, the picture is very clear and convenient to initiate a Short trade while maintaining a Stop Loss above the last minor top.
Fundamental wise, the Fed is about to hike 25bps on coming Wednesday, and expected to hike 6 times along 2022.
The collision of Russia-Ukraine sets a descent platform for inflation super nova on commodities whom which cause a liquidity problems and chaos on international trade.
Reversal:
There is might be a scenario in which the Fed will flip over and suggest that the "unexpected" war developments will require the take the leg of the pedal of Monetary tightening and go for more dovish policies in form of QE and maybe keep IR low, I think the possibility of such scenario is low, but still - In such case, all the short thesis is canceled and we should wait to see how the markets react to such case and trade accordingly.
Good Luck!
4 Hour Chart For SPYIn an earlier post I mentioned that SPY looks really bearish for the short term. However, this sideways move looks corrective for the first wave and looks like a C wave will begin next. Looking for 430-432 before we start making the big move down to 400. Check out YT channel with link in profile for more details.
Bearish PossibilityThis is a potential path for the bearish theory.
As we can see on this downtrend, every time we retrace 0.618 of the previous move we down.
First confluence : FED meeting goes bad, we drop to fill the gap that are not filled near 400, this lead to around 395. Let's say we go down the same % as the last drop, this also lead to around 395.
Second confluence : I took the volume profile indicator from pandemic bottom to previous market top, we have a little air pocket which could lead to more volume support at 380. This is also a fib retracement staring from pandemic low to previous market top, but also the mark for a 20% drop which lead to the bear market.