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Top of the Top of the TopTake your seats and Prepare for the 4th Turning. De-dollarization is occurring before our eyes. The game of musical chairs is coming to an end. We will be lucky to get away with a debt crisis. The more likely outcome is a currency crisis. Your currency is not money, it is fiat. It is important you understand the difference. The thing we call money is fiat credit created by banks via loans. Everything is driven by debt and loans. AKA your life is driven by debt and loans. AKA your life is debt and loans. How did it get this way? www.atlantafed.org But don't you know the Wonderful Wizard of Oz? Remind me... what does the wizard do in the end? Note: This is Not financial advice. Just what I see.
TVC:SPXShort
by MonetaryRebel
1
SPY Update! Looking attractive here. The trend is a good friend.SPY had been on this strong up trend since the COVID plummet in March 2020. On this chart you can see how it broke the regression trend to the downside. How low... can you go...? Notable things to watch: - The gap that MAY! fill at $400 that can be seen on the daily & weekly time frames. - FOMC this week; for shits n' giggles. - Short term outlook - on the Daily time frame the 200 sma (in red) is sitting in the $400 area where the gap MAY! fill. - Long term outlook - on the weekly time frame you can see that the 200sma (in red) is coming up on the 61.80% ($318.17). (chart attached below) Just ride the trend & enjoy the ride but use proper risk management. Its all about the journey & the mulah is a by product of it all. This is not financial advice. This is to be taken as my opinion only!
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnthonyGarciaEth
SPY DIEStill PRE-FOMC so take this with a grain of salt. What have we seen thus far? Reclaim of 20sma? Kind of... hasn't closed above it in the time period of supportive flows. Where's it at now? Still in pattern of downtrend. My supports as listed for the next few weeks. I'm still short. FOMC may alter short term momentum and price, but medium term --> I think SPY dies to 404, 398, etc., Trade idea (IF FOMC goes as planned and FED raises 25 bps) : 03/25/22 SPY 420p Good luck traders.
AMEX:SPY
by SenesTrades
S&P500 calls for short - Head & Shoulders TOPFollowed by the Rising Wedge Breakout, we can see very clearly that SP500 lost some momentum - all of this on the background of Fed's Rate Hikes Expectations. The Head and Shoulders pattern is clear and obvious - let's dig some more important details: 1.Volume Distribution: The volume distribution in a proper H&S Top should be concetrated on: The left Shoulder, The Head, or both of them - but never high on the right shoulder. Note that high volume on the left shoulder and on the head are not that significant, while majority of the volume concentrated on the second bottom of the H&S. The volume distribution here does not support the expected implications of an H&S breakout, and therefore, we should consider a short trade with a bit of suspicious. 2. The Breakout The first breakout of the Neckline occurred with a little peak in volume - this situation tells the trader to wait for new lower top to test the Resistance of the Neckline. And indeed, the patient trader received the expected new lower top, and on Friday the power of sellers was present. The inability to raise above the neckline and the fact that the price rejected from there - was a strong tactical signal for those wanna dive deep into profits. 3. Price Target By H&S Measurement rules, the objective of minimum potential is 3,865. When considering the overall Technical picture, the historical resistance from September 2020 (3,592) looks very solid to serve as strong support level. Conclusion: Technical wise, the picture is very clear and convenient to initiate a Short trade while maintaining a Stop Loss above the last minor top. Fundamental wise, the Fed is about to hike 25bps on coming Wednesday, and expected to hike 6 times along 2022. The collision of Russia-Ukraine sets a descent platform for inflation super nova on commodities whom which cause a liquidity problems and chaos on international trade. Reversal: There is might be a scenario in which the Fed will flip over and suggest that the "unexpected" war developments will require the take the leg of the pedal of Monetary tightening and go for more dovish policies in form of QE and maybe keep IR low, I think the possibility of such scenario is low, but still - In such case, all the short thesis is canceled and we should wait to see how the markets react to such case and trade accordingly. Good Luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ido_Havazelet
Bearish PossibilityThis is a potential path for the bearish theory. As we can see on this downtrend, every time we retrace 0.618 of the previous move we down. First confluence : FED meeting goes bad, we drop to fill the gap that are not filled near 400, this lead to around 395. Let's say we go down the same % as the last drop, this also lead to around 395. Second confluence : I took the volume profile indicator from pandemic bottom to previous market top, we have a little air pocket which could lead to more volume support at 380. This is also a fib retracement staring from pandemic low to previous market top, but also the mark for a 20% drop which lead to the bear market.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Willgau13
$SPY and $ES_F I try my best to stay away from "call-out" type posts because that's not really what I'm about. That being said, I'm doing one today in conjunction with an educational post because they fit together pretty well. Note: on the main chart I'm submitting with this, the topmost moving average (where price is resting as I write this) is the 200HMA using daily candles. The bottommost moving average is the 200HMA using monthly candles. SHORT VERSION The short version is that I'm looking for a short entry on CME_MINI:ES1! and/or AMEX:SPY . THE LONG VERSION In roughly the past 10 years, ES futures and SPY have fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly candle a handful of times. My data plan on TradingView I guess doesn't give me far enough data to show it, but on my other charting platform you can see that as far back as 2011 almost every single time ES has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has been caught by the 200HMA on the monthly. 100% of the time that price has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has resulted in a sustained period of volatility. Currently, ES has not breached this sufficiently but it looks to be close. What I'm looking for as confirmation before entering is: the weekly candle for the week of 1/23/2022 opens below the 200HMA on the weekly candle daily volume on ES has not fallen below 1.2mn (click the related idea for my overview of using volume to help time when the bottom may be in) If this criteria is met, I'm going short on ES selling short contracts but also buying puts on SPY as well. While you don't want to buy calls as a way to "buy the dip" due to the impact of elevated TVC:VIX after a sell-off, you may want to buy puts if you are expecting a sell-off due to the impact that an exploding VIX will have on your options premiums. To be clear, I am not calling for some catastrophic market crash. I'm calling for a technical correction to a regularly established baseline that's all. PT 1 for me would be 4100. PT 2 for me would be 3400. For context 1 contract for CME_MINI:MES1! (the little brother to ES) nets you $5 per point. If I were to enter at 4400 then by PT 1 (if I'm right), that results in $1500/contract excluding fees. CLARIFYING STATEMENTS This is a play I'm entering with or without posting this. If you decide to follow along, you're making a conscious decision of your own. If you decide to enter and this fails, you will get no sympathy from me, I will award you no points, and my God have mercy on your soul.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SwingTradeAssassin
2
I SPY danger... final pre-updateIf you've been keeping up with my charting, you know that I am still majorly bearish going into March FOMC, OPEX, and even beyond. There are plenty of reasons. MACRO: HOT inflation print --> FED is forced into a corner where they have to raise rates LIQUIDITY: End of QE from the FED (no money printer) STRUCTURAL FLOWS: Supportive flows end on 03/16 (VixEx)-03/18 (OPEX) and there is essentially a week and a half afterwards where bears will have their chance to pounce prior to supportive EOM/BOM flows coming on again. PRICE/TA: 20sma has NOT been regained in this period where supportive flows WERE PRESENT. Bulls have had their chance, and have failed at every chance they had to get above the 20sma close and sustain it. RETAIL POSITIONING/SENTIMENT: There were 5 weeks straight of inflows from retail. Major bottoms do NOT have INFLOWS. It's quite the opposite. You would have major outflows to signal a bottom. Go to @Norseman1 on Twitter to see his lipper fund flows equity chart. Continued pouring in of inflows entails that retail has not yet capitulated. Without capitulation, no bottom. Retail traders are still trading under the mentality of "BTFD" and it shows in the amount of inflow over the past few months. And what's happening? They're getting absolutely F*'d. Market is down tremendously, but there's still zero fear. They will continue to buy the dip until they will be forced to capitulate. Once down hard enough, they will liquidate their positions and get out (hence outflows) --> then and only then can we have a major bottom. That is my honest view and why I have been posting primarily bearish charts. Please listen :( ------------------------------ PLAN Whether it's the blue line or the green line overhead as resistance: I don't really care. The bottom line is that SPY has room for more upside in the next few days (remember the original calendar had until 03/14 for bulls to regain). Spy can potentially move up to 432 (blue line resistance) or 440 (green line resistance). IF it even gets there, that is where you open up positions. You can open tomorrow if you wish, but you'll likely have to hold through some major volatility to the upside unless you hedge with shorter dated call options. Position: 03/25/22 SPY 400p Targets: 404, 398, 394.5, 383 I'm not saying we get there, so do NOT go all in on your port please for the love of all that is good. You do NOT need to play big to win big with puts. You should be primarily cash as I have warned in the previous months. Play it lightly to the downside. When you start to see actual fear in the markets (news headlines talking about worst crash in history, people calling for SPY below 380, permabulls switching to all in their port on puts, etc.,) - that is when you flip long. From 03/16-03/18 onwards to EOM/EOQ ~ 03/30, bears have the opportunity to pounce. Structural flows will not be as supportive. BUT Everything is dependent on the FED. Watch closely for what they do on 03/16. That will determine the course. If hawkish, my position will win big. Best of luck traders. Stay nimble :)
AMEX:SPY
by SenesTrades
SPY bounce off from the support what's next?Today $SPY bounce off from the support line after wallstreet turns bullish in the market with no positive news. i mention this before from the last analysis, that market could bounce around the support line. the support line is very visible on the 1hr, 4hr and Daily chart. its also very visible that market is making lower highs ( see my trend line in chart ) a possible sign of short term bullish before it head back to lower again. keep in mind also that FAANG stocks is following the same chart pattern and trend line with SPY. to continue its momentum SPY needs to break the resistance around 437-440 to continue its momentum. Overall market still looking bearish. swinging will be tough specially with geopolitical issue going on that could shake the market anytime of the day even in pre Day trade or scalp target play: 03/ 10 /22 Buy call above 430.34 sell at 433.07 or above Buy puts below 424.65 sell at 421.89 or below Hello everyone, welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play ) I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play. If you have any questions or suggestions which stock I should analyze, please leave a comment below. If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for stopping by and stay tune for more. My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes only.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CHRIS_B58
1
THE LAST POINT OF SUPPLY FOR THE SPY!Hey everyone! Hope all is well. Well damn - what is going on with this world. Oil prices @ $6 in the US! Inflation at the highest since the 70's, the war between Russia and Ukraine, supply issues and sanctions, Evergrande on the brink of collapse. We are expecting a drop in the market to soon test new lows. This is a very common Wyckoff pattern which can we can trade fractally within each other as shown. We have price distribution followed our UTAD which price demand failed to push past the upper supply zone. In turn, we have a large price drop with a moving last point of supply between 50% to 0% of the range of the channel. This is extremely common. The question is have we mitigated enough demand liquidity to allow price to push down below the floor and create new lows? Let me know your thoughts. Peace, Seb.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SXTrading
$SPY going for correction?$SPY has been trending down for the few weeks now and it gets worst as the geopolitical affects the market. as you can see, SPY is bout to approach its support level and where it bounce recently after hitting the support level. but this time is a bit different from previous bounce since market is highly affected with the shortage in commodities specially with chip makers and other important commodities. on the side note, energy stocks is rising like natural gas, oil, electricity etc. maybe we're already in the bear market but people still haven't realized it. also market could bounce if the geopolitical problems stops and can cause a short term bullish run before it pulls back again. note: techs stocks still looking bearish since it correlates with $SPY most of the tech stocks has simillar patterns like SPY. just view them in the higher time frame like 1hr, 4hr and daily. Day trade or scalp target play: 03/ 09 /22 Buy call above 419.23 sell at 423.29 Buy puts below 412.84 sell at 408.44 Hello everyone, welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play ) I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play. If you have any questions or suggestions which stock I should analyze, please leave a comment below. If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for stopping by and stay tune for more. My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes only.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CHRIS_B58
1
more than a dip, not quite cheap $qqq $spy $vix $vxx MMTH, The percentage of stocks over their 200 day moving average, is a useful tool for clues of the broad market technical trend. Combined with vix volatility index, which measures option premium of at the money options (implied moves), we can get confirmation of changes prices and sentiment. Vix is also called the 'fear index'. By looking at the chart made here, we can see that the extreme lows in MMTH and extremes highs in vix volatility were major buying opportunities. We also observe the tiny dips in a uptrend that were also minor buyable opportunities. The most difficult part of decision making is determining if current selling is a small dip to be bought or a larger correction to be avoided until concluded. I dont know if the selling is over, but I do observe that this was not just a tiny buyable dip in the bull trend. I will standby and wait for upside confirmation due to the risk. Especially since fundamentals mark the sp500 above the averages values of 1.5x price to sales and 15 price to earnings, we should be more cautious than greedy when technicals are unclear.
INDEX:MMTH
by optionfarmers
Falling Wedge or Channel?Is it in the blue falling wedge? Or is SPY in the green descending channel? One comment turned me over to the idea that it was a green descending channel. If so, then my thesis for us possibly reaching up to 448 holds (well... that line is declining since last week so now 445 and declining each day). If not and this is a blue falling wedge, this can be short term resistance. We shall see! Regardless, I'm still bearish into March opex and beyond. Short term, we can go up 10-12 more points on SPY, but I don't see much more after. Best of luck traders! Small leverage! :)
AMEX:SPY
by SenesTrades
1
SPY HUGE FALLING WEDGE UPDATE *WARNING**WARNING: LOTS OF READING* tldr; LONG TERM: This is bullish. DO NOT mistake me for thinking that I am about to say below is saying we will crash all the way down to SPY 200. Now... onto the post below... From my previous update: I was looking for a break of the falling wedge around the 448 level, but that obviously failed. I was also looking for a bigger bounce from the EOM/BOM flows (yesterday and today) into the higher end range of this falling wedge. Neither of those happened. Clarification: When I mention EOM/BOM flows, I do NOT mean that markets will rocket. It's not as simple as that. Rather, it is to say that the markets are propped up from too significant of a decline. This applies to pretty much every month of the year where the cycle repeats ON AVERAGE: -EOM (End of Month) and BOM (Beginning of month) flows support the market until Friday preceding OPEX week(market can move higher if there are two consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma during this period). Most recently in terms of market dynamics: the 20SMA is where market battles between bulls and bears happen the most. They try to claim the 20sma for their side. *Any 2 consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma for the bulls during window of supportive strength can lead to even higher market prices. *Any 2 consecutive closes below the 20sma (note nothing to do with STD for the downside) during window of supportive weakness can lead to lower market prices. -VIXperation Wednesday (usually is when stage 1 of the unwinding of supportive flows begin). Depending on price action, this can have opposite effects. Usually, if this month is heavily hedged (via VIX calls, SPY puts) and price action isn't pushed to the downside, then those contracts will expire worthless and MM delta neutral hedges will unwind, causing price to push to the upside because of short covering. If price action is already pushing toward the downside, price action can actually snowball more to the downside. -OPEX Friday (stage 2 of unwinding of supportive flows). Similar to the above. Depends on price action and where contracts are placed. -Week after OPEX Friday leading to EOM (stage 3 and the most critical). Supportive flows are not as present, meaning decline of price action is very much possible in this time period. Two consecutive daily closes below the 20SMA will lead to further decline. Let's summarize end of February price action: February VIXpiry Wednesday 02/16/22: Hedges unwound and we squeezed significantly to the upside. *Short covering rally/squeeze February OPEX Friday 02/18/22: Unwinding of current contracts and hedges, led to significant decline to the downside. February week after OPEX Tuesday 02/22/22- Thursday 02/24/22: SIGNIFICANT market decline into a sharp reversal on Thursday, leading to Friday and eventually this week EOM/BOM. Yesterday and today, the supportive flows did NOT move us significantly higher. We haven't even reached the 20sma. Again, this period of supportive flows is where bulls have the opportunity to take control over the 20sma. They are failing to do so at the moment. This is ominous for the bulls. This supportive period ends effectively on 03/11-03/14 (start of opex week), so we have a lot of work to do. Not to mention that in addition, we have FUTURES roll date on 03/10 (not going to get into that...), FOMC speakers, Biden SOTU, etc... things are not looking hot. *Keep in mind that the big guys can front run the flows any which way, so the market structure above is NOT all-exhaustive.* --------------------------------------------------------------- What is my plan? If you didn't know already.... I'm majorly bearish into March OPEX and even beyond. The reason I put downside targets of SPY 404 --> 398 , etc., is because I think that ultimately, we will trade there within the next couple months. I am primarily cash while playing minor plays to the downside upon ANY rally to the upside. No rally thus far since January has been sustained. Every significant rally has been faded. Primary position: 03/25/22 SPY 400p Intra-day plays: Hedge with weekly calls to the upside to endure any squeezes to the upside. Take profit and sell at resistances. ---------------------------------------------------------------- You have to function with the mindset that Mr. Market will do whatever it takes to F*ck the most amount of retail investors possible. That is why you will have extremely volatile swings to both the upside and the downside, while ultimately maintaining a downtrend. Retail investors from 2020-2021 have been trained by the FED (due to unlimited liquidity) to just BTFD. You can NOT do that anymore. Please listen. You have to be using VERY little leverage here because price can go against you in an instant. You should be PRIMARILY cash. You can play the downside, but put very little money to do so. Trust me, you don't need to put a lot of money in to reap a lot of rewards to playing the downside. Can SPY Reach and even Break 380's? Absolutely. Will it then lead to a cascade waterfall downwards to SPY 200? No. I think what may happen is that we have a capitulation candle, where all retail long call BTFD bros get slaughtered. I can definitely see a HUGE wick below the support line drawn, and then we may have a reversal back above into the falling wedge pattern. If the support line breaks, I foresee retail being forced to capitulate and buy puts at the lows (as retail always does.... which is to buy high and sell low). Once retail has bought puts at the lows, market will reverse upwards. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Be nimble. Watch the 20sma. Watch the FED course. Everything is dependent on the FED. Hawkish behavior will lead to the inevitable decline. Do NOT be a perma bull or a perma bear. Respect the price action and ride it. Best of luck traders. Live updates on Twitter. If you have any questions, ask away :) @seneslulz
AMEX:SPY
by SenesTrades
6