$SPY going for correction?$SPY has been trending down for the few weeks now and it gets worst as the geopolitical affects the market.
as you can see, SPY is bout to approach its support level and where it bounce recently after hitting the support level.
but this time is a bit different from previous bounce since market is highly affected with the shortage in commodities specially
with chip makers and other important commodities. on the side note, energy stocks is rising like natural gas, oil, electricity etc.
maybe we're already in the bear market but people still haven't realized it.
also market could bounce if the geopolitical problems stops and can cause a short term bullish run before it pulls back again.
note: techs stocks still looking bearish since it correlates with $SPY most of the tech stocks has simillar patterns like SPY.
just view them in the higher time frame like 1hr, 4hr and daily.
Day trade or scalp target play: 03/ 09 /22
Buy call above 419.23 sell at 423.29
Buy puts below 412.84 sell at 408.44
Hello everyone,
welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play )
I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities
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My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes only.
Spyshort
more than a dip, not quite cheap $qqq $spy $vix $vxx MMTH, The percentage of stocks over their 200 day moving average, is a useful tool for clues of the broad market technical trend. Combined with vix volatility index, which measures option premium of at the money options (implied moves), we can get confirmation of changes prices and sentiment. Vix is also called the 'fear index'.
By looking at the chart made here, we can see that the extreme lows in MMTH and extremes highs in vix volatility were major buying opportunities. We also observe the tiny dips in a uptrend that were also minor buyable opportunities. The most difficult part of decision making is determining if current selling is a small dip to be bought or a larger correction to be avoided until concluded.
I dont know if the selling is over, but I do observe that this was not just a tiny buyable dip in the bull trend. I will standby and wait for upside confirmation due to the risk. Especially since fundamentals mark the sp500 above the averages values of 1.5x price to sales and 15 price to earnings, we should be more cautious than greedy when technicals are unclear.
Falling Wedge or Channel?Is it in the blue falling wedge?
Or is SPY in the green descending channel?
One comment turned me over to the idea that it was a green descending channel.
If so, then my thesis for us possibly reaching up to 448 holds (well... that line is declining since last week so now 445 and declining each day).
If not and this is a blue falling wedge, this can be short term resistance.
We shall see!
Regardless, I'm still bearish into March opex and beyond.
Short term, we can go up 10-12 more points on SPY, but I don't see much more after.
Best of luck traders!
Small leverage! :)
SPY HUGE FALLING WEDGE UPDATE *WARNING**WARNING: LOTS OF READING*
tldr; LONG TERM: This is bullish.
DO NOT mistake me for thinking that I am about to say below is saying we will crash all the way down to SPY 200.
Now... onto the post below...
From my previous update:
I was looking for a break of the falling wedge around the 448 level, but that obviously failed.
I was also looking for a bigger bounce from the EOM/BOM flows (yesterday and today) into the higher end range of this falling wedge. Neither of those happened.
Clarification:
When I mention EOM/BOM flows, I do NOT mean that markets will rocket. It's not as simple as that.
Rather, it is to say that the markets are propped up from too significant of a decline.
This applies to pretty much every month of the year where the cycle repeats ON AVERAGE:
-EOM (End of Month) and BOM (Beginning of month) flows support the market until Friday preceding OPEX week(market can move higher if there are two consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma during this period). Most recently in terms of market dynamics: the 20SMA is where market battles between bulls and bears happen the most. They try to claim the 20sma for their side.
*Any 2 consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma for the bulls during window of supportive strength can lead to even higher market prices.
*Any 2 consecutive closes below the 20sma (note nothing to do with STD for the downside) during window of supportive weakness can lead to lower market prices.
-VIXperation Wednesday (usually is when stage 1 of the unwinding of supportive flows begin). Depending on price action, this can have opposite effects. Usually, if this month is heavily hedged (via VIX calls, SPY puts) and price action isn't pushed to the downside, then those contracts will expire worthless and MM delta neutral hedges will unwind, causing price to push to the upside because of short covering. If price action is already pushing toward the downside, price action can actually snowball more to the downside.
-OPEX Friday (stage 2 of unwinding of supportive flows). Similar to the above. Depends on price action and where contracts are placed.
-Week after OPEX Friday leading to EOM (stage 3 and the most critical). Supportive flows are not as present, meaning decline of price action is very much possible in this time period. Two consecutive daily closes below the 20SMA will lead to further decline.
Let's summarize end of February price action:
February VIXpiry Wednesday 02/16/22: Hedges unwound and we squeezed significantly to the upside. *Short covering rally/squeeze
February OPEX Friday 02/18/22: Unwinding of current contracts and hedges, led to significant decline to the downside.
February week after OPEX Tuesday 02/22/22- Thursday 02/24/22: SIGNIFICANT market decline into a sharp reversal on Thursday, leading to Friday and eventually this week EOM/BOM.
Yesterday and today, the supportive flows did NOT move us significantly higher. We haven't even reached the 20sma. Again, this period of supportive flows is where bulls have the opportunity to take control over the 20sma. They are failing to do so at the moment.
This is ominous for the bulls.
This supportive period ends effectively on 03/11-03/14 (start of opex week), so we have a lot of work to do.
Not to mention that in addition, we have FUTURES roll date on 03/10 (not going to get into that...), FOMC speakers, Biden SOTU, etc... things are not looking hot.
*Keep in mind that the big guys can front run the flows any which way, so the market structure above is NOT all-exhaustive.*
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What is my plan?
If you didn't know already.... I'm majorly bearish into March OPEX and even beyond. The reason I put downside targets of SPY 404 --> 398 , etc., is because I think that ultimately, we will trade there within the next couple months.
I am primarily cash while playing minor plays to the downside upon ANY rally to the upside. No rally thus far since January has been sustained. Every significant rally has been faded.
Primary position: 03/25/22 SPY 400p
Intra-day plays: Hedge with weekly calls to the upside to endure any squeezes to the upside. Take profit and sell at resistances.
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You have to function with the mindset that Mr. Market will do whatever it takes to F*ck the most amount of retail investors possible. That is why you will have extremely volatile swings to both the upside and the downside, while ultimately maintaining a downtrend.
Retail investors from 2020-2021 have been trained by the FED (due to unlimited liquidity) to just BTFD. You can NOT do that anymore. Please listen.
You have to be using VERY little leverage here because price can go against you in an instant.
You should be PRIMARILY cash.
You can play the downside, but put very little money to do so. Trust me, you don't need to put a lot of money in to reap a lot of rewards to playing the downside.
Can SPY Reach and even Break 380's? Absolutely. Will it then lead to a cascade waterfall downwards to SPY 200?
No.
I think what may happen is that we have a capitulation candle, where all retail long call BTFD bros get slaughtered. I can definitely see a HUGE wick below the support line drawn, and then we may have a reversal back above into the falling wedge pattern. If the support line breaks, I foresee retail being forced to capitulate and buy puts at the lows (as retail always does.... which is to buy high and sell low). Once retail has bought puts at the lows, market will reverse upwards.
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Be nimble.
Watch the 20sma.
Watch the FED course. Everything is dependent on the FED.
Hawkish behavior will lead to the inevitable decline.
Do NOT be a perma bull or a perma bear.
Respect the price action and ride it.
Best of luck traders.
Live updates on Twitter. If you have any questions, ask away :)
@seneslulz
SPY bounce at 400Ok so the SPY has gotten through the choppy area of the 420s. Now, there are no major supports before it gets to 400. On the chart I drew out 3 possible scenarios, or ways I'm looking for the market to start a bounce at 400. The first one is if we trade down to 400 during the day, especially early in the day, I'd look for the bounce later in that day. The second possibility is if the SPY sells down into close but we are not at 400 yet, and then the SPY opens below 400; BUY THAT OPEN!!!! The last possible I'm look for is if the SPY just sells down into close for the day, getting below 400; it will probably go through that level with relative ease. Don't know what day this will play out but looks like it will be soon, like within a week; but I would not look to play the bullish bounce with options less than a week to expiration. And the reason why, is the last thing I will caution you with, watch out for scenario 1 turning into scenario 3. Where we get below the 400 point level early one day, start bouncing, and then the end of day start selling off and make a new daily low going into the close. That's why you want to give yourself a little bit of time on the options. I'm going on vacation, so if it happens while I'm gone I wanted to give you what I was, am, looking for. I do have take profit stops at those level but if it does it while I'm gone I might not get into bullish positions. Good luck and make that money.
2/21/22 MSFTMicrosoft Corp. ( NASDAQ:MSFT )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $2.159T
Current Price: $287.93
Breakdown price: $286.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $297.00-$312.00
Price Target: $276.00-$274.40 (1st), $233.00-$230.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 28-30d (1st), 68-71d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $MSFT 3/18/22 280p, 6/17/22 260p
Trade price as of publish date: $7.20/contract, $9.97/contract
2/21/22 TSLATesla, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA )
Sector: Consumer Durables (Motor Vehicles)
Market Capitalization: $885.695B
Current Price: $856.98
Breakdown price: $850.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $900.00-$965.00
Price Target: $778.00-$762.50 (4th), $690.00-$678.00 (5th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 28-30d (4th), 68-71d (5th)
Contract of Interest: $TSLA 3/18/22 800p, 5/20/22 750p
Trade price as of publish date: $34.11/contract, $55.40/contract
2/21/22 BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. ( NYSE:BLDR )
Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Building Products)
Market Capitalization: $13.734B
Current Price: $71.72
Breakdown price: $67.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $68.50-$73.00
Price Target: $64.20-63.00 (2nd), $56.00-$54.40 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 27-29d (2nd), 60-63d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $BLDR 3/18/22 70p, 5/20/22 70p
Trade price as of publish date: $3.40/contract, $6.30/contract
2/21/22 SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( AMEX:SPY )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ -- B
Current Price: $434.23
Breakdown price: $429.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $448.00-$457.00
Price Target: $422.20-$420.10 (1st), $384.20-$382.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 14-17d, 48-50d
Contract of Interest: $SPY 3/7/22 420p, 4/14/22 400p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.20/contract, $7.03/contract
SPY bearish options todayI was monitoring the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ETF) options market and the puts are dominating the options today.
2/3 puts, 1/3 calls and some important dark pool prints sells.
My expectation is for a retracement at the $422 area, followed by a W shaped recovery.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY UPDate Feb 18th: She goin down Captain. Sing it again Sam!Once more glorious day of Warrrrr!
Bulls support 440.00
Resistance 446.50
Bulls targeting 413.00
Id fill UP and the next Res Bears.
Good luck and Bulls only Cookie Trades.
Filled Gap Case for Bulls and Bears on the chart.
No tradin Monday so, they gona fight today to see who has the last WORD for this week.
Hint look at the size of the Bars.
Big fellers. Hope the Bulls have shoulder pad strapped on.
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SPY Stock Analysis - S&P 500 SPDR ETF Stock Price Prediction for Tomorrow.
February
We go over the SPY stock - S&P 500 SPDR ETF stock, and give our stock price prediction on the SPY stock, our SPY stock price analysis, and stock price forecast on SPY for tomorrow Monday February .
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$SPYThe investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
This year will end NEGATIVE in S&P but NOT BEFORE we see ATHs!However, I see a 15% rise to ATH in the S&P 500 FROM HERE! SEPT '22 P Target.
Let's see how this plays out. First half of 2022 will see a 15% rise from here regaining previous ATHs into SEPT 2022. From this point I see a capitulation candle (-23%) ENDING THE YEAR NEGATIVE.
This is my 2022 forecast for the SPX.
2024 will mark a brand new Bull market.
$SPY Bearish PennantThe investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.