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The U.S Bubble Pop Of 2022 - And Japan? TLDR: The market is about to likely crash, in a much needed and healthy correction of capital placement in various industries and businesses. Why? Look no further than the Japanese Stock Crash of 1989, and see its similarities. In 1988, Japan was on the verge of becoming one of the worlds greatest economic super powers. Its monetary policy had allowed for historically low interest rates and investors had created a housing bubble caused by liquidity. Japan's economy was a prosperous tank, and nothing seemed to be slowing it down any time soon (despite cries from numerous, increasingly impatient market gurus that the opposite was true.) Companies grew, exponentially, without the innovation or competition to match such growth. Inflation was at an all time high, and the housing market was completely inaccessible to young people (sound familiar?) In fact, the economy was so well, that Japans index, Nikkei, saw gains of ~ 30% year after year -- 5 years in a row (A total of 900% in the previous 15 years!) At this point in history, Japan was the leading manufacturer for new innovations in the tech world (Walkman, VHS, CD's, DVD's, INSTANT NOODLES, all from Japan). This boom in emerging new tech was clearly reflected in the markets. In fact, at its peak in 1989, Sony casted one of the largest acquisitions ever! The company paid $3.4 Billion for Colombia Pictures, despite have little earnings. This was move was out fear and speculation, as Sony wanted an edge on its competitors in the film tech world (Comparable to the historic Microsoft/ Activision acquisition perhaps?) History shows that inflation is great for equities, until the government is cornered and has to take it seriously! That is exactly what happened. This story was short lived, as it all came crashing down in 1989 and 1990. In 1989, Japan had elections and switched its form of power. A new political and economic policy entered, and when this new administration began tightening its policy to a more conservative standard (to fight ever rising inflation), the markets felt it. In just two short years, Japans speculative Nikkei market came crashing down 60% (it still hasn't fully recovered at 40% from its all time high, 30 years later.) Investment firms and corporations who used their capital to speculate in investments (which the public assumed would not lose their value) were forced to exit their equity exposure and risk at much lower prices. Simply put, shareholders and venture capitalists had too much faith in these emerging markets and newer systems. Who could blame them? The past several years, the market was outperforming any investment in recent times. However, they were so comfortable and prideful, they had forgotten the risk of high rising equities and investments (this risk was compounded by greed, causing excessive and easy margin borrowing. We'll get more into this later, in another post.) So, what is the lesson and how can we learn from this to prepare? Just ask the Japanese. In 1998, Japanese technology was booming so much, it caused a surge of euphoria that investors did not want to miss out on. This euphoria compounds until it can no longer be maintained, confidence dwindles, and the market is hit. They've learned the lesson that in times of high deviation from the mean, it's important to exercise a healthy level of caution. This can be done by investing in real cash-flowing investments that have stood the test of time (commodities, land, gold, to name a few) and by sitting on a nice stash of cash (although, be careful, INFLATION!) This way, you can deploy your cash when the market is at a discount and become a gazillionaire. (I'll touch base on other ways you can make outstanding profit in a potentially bearish economy, in another post.) As always, this is just a historical example. History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes like a rapper. The conditions we are in today are different in many ways, but by finding the similarities and drawing parallels, maybe we can prevent ourselves from being turkeys. (More on turkeys in a future post)
AMEX:SPYShort
by SJ_CAP
11
Long or short? What is coming soon?An important situation is now taking shape. The last candle as a redemption, a bullish hammer, but in any case it will be clearer how we will close on the weekly timeframe and what will happen on Monday. On the RSI, circled where it went beyond the lower channel boundary, statistically the instrument went up. Now we have a similar situation, a bullish signal On the MACD there will be a crossover in the near future, if the movement continues. Then the most important thing is to break through the resistance levels. 1,2 - more serious, from it the reversal can be down again. and 3 to update the maximum. Now there should be a break in the trend, further up. The level is strong. 200 EMA should also help. Crossing the line and the horizontal level is a very powerful defense. If this scenario breaks down - go lower to 315 almost. Fundamental factors from the Fed could contribute to this. ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Stock trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by QuantumLabSignals
What are condoms for?'Protection!!! PUTS, PUTS, PUTS!!! It looks like the SPY could form an inside candle with an upper wick retest of former trend line area (see circle), also on QQQ. And that's if we don't go any lower today; but seriously doubt we go higher. You can thank PTON for crushing the market as the news they released was super bearish; shutting down production of there bike and treadmill. As it basically means, 'anybody that wanted to buy stuff over the past couple of years, has' money from stimulus funds, investment gains, etc. They are just the first to say this, and wont be the last.
NASDAQ:PTONShort
by Options_Trading
SPY going to at least 459-460 againOnce again, SPY got rejected at the critical resistance and is going down. Every time it rejected this level previously, it went down at least -0.9% and at most -4.5%. I am expecting it to go down to either 460 or even 456-458 in the next two days. Tomorrow, it might close around 460 and then it might gap down on Tuesday and then we see the recovery either that day or the next due to the earnings. For those interested in patterns, I see a bearish BATMAN pattern (the last rejection of the resistance was retest of the right ear. This idea gets invalidated if SPY breaks above and holds 472.
AMEX:SPYShort
by alwaysinlearningmode
41
"You cannot T.A. the VIX"Hi folks! There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500. However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with realised volatility. Thus, there are some measures you can take to try predicting market moves: The Bollinger bands explicitly aims to model the short term realised volatility and the fact that periods of VERY low volatility often preceded periods of high volatility. In my opinion, it makes perfect sense to analyse the VIX in terms of Bollinger Bands - on the 4h, which I usually use to trade both the VIX and the SPY in general. I want to test a hypothesis that a very tight BB gap often leads to relatively large VIX spikes. I also tried to combine it with the MACD indicator to see if we could find an even stronger buy signal, and here are my result based on my extremely brief study: - A very tight BB gap "always" leads to a relatively large VIX spike. - If you find a divergence in the MACD at the same time, the signal is even stronger (although the tight BB in itself seems to be the most important signal). I did only include a chart since the covid-correction until now, as the findings are hard to vizualise over longer time frames. In my humble opinion, it is absolutely time to buy the VIX now (although it may continue further down, it does not make a huge difference unless you have a tight SL/very short duration of your contracts). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
TVC:VIXLong
by TheDots
4
$SPY last rally of the year?$SPY continuing its last rally of the year. but starts to show its weakness in smaller time frame chart. the weakness can be visibly shows in smaller time frames showing the momentum of SPY start to curl down and volume of buyers starts to slowdown. respectably, although the it start to show some weaknesses doesn't mean its going to pull back. the stock is still above the ema line. once we crossed that line in 1hr and 4hr time frame. that's probably our signals for the possible pull back. as of what happened yesterday SPY is just consolidating. day trade and scalp play target. buy call above 478.65-479 sell at 480+ buy puts below 475.68 sell at 474.50 or below Hello everyone, welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play ) I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play. If you have any questions or suggestions which stock I should analyze, please leave a comment below. If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for stopping by and stay tune for more. My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes only.
AMEX:SPYLong
by CHRIS_B58