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$SPY GONNA BE RED NEXT WEEK!!!!-Make sure Y'all stay strapped with that BP ready to attack starter puts then she should bounce later on in the week - As we notice here we broke below the 26-day ema now on the daily which isn't good at all - We are looking to have a pretty red week But here we have some clear direction so I will be Playing puts on SPY all the way down to around $450 -Going to watch how Monday plays out SPY might go a little green for a bit but over all we gonna see some RED RED next week. Stay Strapped
AMEX:SPYShort
by Ubaidy100
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 November – 12 November 2021)Investors are to take note of the end of Daylight Saving Time (DST) that will effectively have the US exchanges open at an hour later, depending on your time zone starting today. $SPX is currently closed at 200% ATR(14) away from its 10 days moving average, the first time since September 2020. Data on inflation will be the highlight of the U.S. economic calendar in the week ahead as investors continue to digest the Fed’s decision to begin tapering stimulus measures, marking the beginning of less accommodative monetary policy. Earnings season is winding down, but there are still several companies set to report during the week. China’s Communist Party looks set to green-light a third term for President Xi Jinping. Here’s what you need to know in the coming week. Market Technicals The benchmark index $SPX continues its high octane rally with a fresh new high established at 4,718 level, gaining +2.00% (+92.15 points) during the week. $SPX is currently closed at 200% ATR away from its 10 days moving average, the first time since September 2020. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,660 level, a break of its short term uptrend momentum. Inflation data Data on producer price inflation for October is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed a day later by figures on consumer price inflation. The CPI numbers are expected to hit their highest levels so far post-pandemic, with economists forecasting an increase of 0.6% month-on-month and 5.8% year-on-year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to rise by an annualized 4.3%. At its latest meeting the Fed stuck to the view that high inflation would prove “transitory” and is not likely to require a rapid increase in interest rates, prompting investors to call it a “dovish taper.” While the central bank has so far managed to communicate plans to begin scaling back its monthly bond purchases without triggering a taper tantrum, elevated inflation figures that fuel rate hike speculation could change that. Earnings Better-than-expected third-quarter earnings have boosted equities and Wall Street’s main indexes closed at record highs on Friday following a strong U.S. jobs report and positive data for Pfizer’s ($PFE) experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19. Companies reporting in the coming week include entertainment company Walt Disney ($DIS), drugmakers AstraZeneca ($AZN) and BioNTech ($BNTX) along with Softbank ($SFTBY), PayPal ($PYPL), Coinbase ($COIN) and AMC Entertainment ($AMC), China The top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are set to meet in Beijing from Monday through Thursday, where the decision-making Central Committee could give the go-ahead for an unprecedented third term for President Xi Jinping. The meeting comes at a time when growth in the world’s second largest economy is faltering amid stringent measures to curb virus outbreaks, a clampdown on the property market, energy shortages and disrupted supply chains. Data on Sunday showed that Chinese exports slowed in October, but still beat forecasts while imports fell short of forecasts, pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand.
SP:SPXShort
by jfsrevg
Serious divergence on S&PWhat a crazy ride this has been the past week. life is funny and makes things a little more difficult right before there is a break through. IDK what the narrative will be here in the next couple of days/weeks though this is coming down no matter what. The music will stop all together or pause briefly for a quick rush to the chairs like a nice game of musical chairs. Technicals are all mostly bearish and even though markets have been pushing to ATH theres a serious divergence in technicals. VIX is noice and cheap and a good time to take some profits off the table. Good ol Jeffery Bezos sold 166,000,000 worth of stock on the first of this month along with other major CEOs that have been selling the past couple of weeks. "A CMF sell signal occurs when price action develops a higher high into overbought zones, with the CMF diverging with a lower high and beginning to fall." www.sec.gov AMAZON CEO www.sec.gov GOOGLE CEO www.sec.gov FACEBOOK CEO www.sec.gov FACEBOOK CEO That's all folks
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by moonman777
2
New Sell Signal - Time to Hedge/Exit Longs/Buy volatility imo.Hi folks! See my Previous post for more information - in short, I believe it is really about time to start hedging long exposure to the broad U.S. Stock market. T.A. Arguments: - SPY tested both the massive broken trend line from march 2020 yesterday and got rejected. - This Coincided with a rejection off the upper 1D Bollinger Bands. - The insane long term RSI divergence is still valid. - Trading volume very correlated with the VIX - i.e. higher volume on high-fear (and usually mostly red) days. - VIX has turned up from right below 15 despite new intraday ATH every day. Green VIX on green SPY-days are not a good sign. - (Not shown on chart) money Flow ETF also show a massive divergence, meaning that one USD increase in S&P500 value corresponds to less money invested (more investors are holding the same hand). - (Now shown on chart) Fear and Greed Index - generally a decent contrarian indicator - is about to turn "Extremely Bullish" yet again. - SPY/M2SL is now above its level on February 2020 - a level only seen at that time and at the peak of the DotCom bubble. Other arguments: - Liquidity crunch from tapering in the U.S., rate hikes from almost every central bank (yes, people from all over the world has contributed to this bubble - not only those directly affected by the U.S. Fed), Potentially forced downturn (debt regulation) due to inflation and default risks. - Potential collapse of the Chinese Property sector and its stakeholders - it seems very odd if this is priced at these levels. - Potential Tether collapse (yes, you heard me right): If most of its 70 Billion USD reserves are (as rumours has it) actually in risky EM (including chinese Property) commercial paper, it is a massive risk for the crypto industry and all the liquidity currently placed there - such an event will be contagious with a high probability. As I am just a greedy trader, I also want to take advantage of this environment, so I have loaded up on VIX futures (see orange graph). My opinion is that volatility (and hedging in general) is extremely cheap at the moment with respect to the current market state. However, this is a risky move (might even be riskier than holding the SPY), so I do not recommend (or is in any way authorised to recommend) such a move - I just state that I am doing so myself, as you should never lister to someone without skin in the game. I wish you all well :) DYOR. NFA. Neve take the words of others as a given!
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
6
Time to sell SPY/Buy VIX imo.Hi folks! If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy) and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink. - Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020 - Massive divergence on volume since trend broke (Volume follows VIX - not a good sign!) - Massive divergence on RSI - VIX at very low levels In addition to this, the money flow indicator - usually a sound fundamental indicator - shows a serious divergence. Add that to the macroeconomic picture and the pricing (much more important than the other factors I just stated), and it would be a rather compelling case for selling the broad U.S. stock market. I got rid of my last long exposure to U.S. stocks now and loaded up on VIX futures (VIXY) throughout this week - currently holding 85% (!) of my portfolio in such contracts- DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well! :) Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
2