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Serious divergence on S&PWhat a crazy ride this has been the past week. life is funny and makes things a little more difficult right before there is a break through. IDK what the narrative will be here in the next couple of days/weeks though this is coming down no matter what. The music will stop all together or pause briefly for a quick rush to the chairs like a nice game of musical chairs. Technicals are all mostly bearish and even though markets have been pushing to ATH theres a serious divergence in technicals. VIX is noice and cheap and a good time to take some profits off the table. Good ol Jeffery Bezos sold 166,000,000 worth of stock on the first of this month along with other major CEOs that have been selling the past couple of weeks. "A CMF sell signal occurs when price action develops a higher high into overbought zones, with the CMF diverging with a lower high and beginning to fall." www.sec.gov AMAZON CEO www.sec.gov GOOGLE CEO www.sec.gov FACEBOOK CEO www.sec.gov FACEBOOK CEO That's all folks
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by moonman777
2
New Sell Signal - Time to Hedge/Exit Longs/Buy volatility imo.Hi folks! See my Previous post for more information - in short, I believe it is really about time to start hedging long exposure to the broad U.S. Stock market. T.A. Arguments: - SPY tested both the massive broken trend line from march 2020 yesterday and got rejected. - This Coincided with a rejection off the upper 1D Bollinger Bands. - The insane long term RSI divergence is still valid. - Trading volume very correlated with the VIX - i.e. higher volume on high-fear (and usually mostly red) days. - VIX has turned up from right below 15 despite new intraday ATH every day. Green VIX on green SPY-days are not a good sign. - (Not shown on chart) money Flow ETF also show a massive divergence, meaning that one USD increase in S&P500 value corresponds to less money invested (more investors are holding the same hand). - (Now shown on chart) Fear and Greed Index - generally a decent contrarian indicator - is about to turn "Extremely Bullish" yet again. - SPY/M2SL is now above its level on February 2020 - a level only seen at that time and at the peak of the DotCom bubble. Other arguments: - Liquidity crunch from tapering in the U.S., rate hikes from almost every central bank (yes, people from all over the world has contributed to this bubble - not only those directly affected by the U.S. Fed), Potentially forced downturn (debt regulation) due to inflation and default risks. - Potential collapse of the Chinese Property sector and its stakeholders - it seems very odd if this is priced at these levels. - Potential Tether collapse (yes, you heard me right): If most of its 70 Billion USD reserves are (as rumours has it) actually in risky EM (including chinese Property) commercial paper, it is a massive risk for the crypto industry and all the liquidity currently placed there - such an event will be contagious with a high probability. As I am just a greedy trader, I also want to take advantage of this environment, so I have loaded up on VIX futures (see orange graph). My opinion is that volatility (and hedging in general) is extremely cheap at the moment with respect to the current market state. However, this is a risky move (might even be riskier than holding the SPY), so I do not recommend (or is in any way authorised to recommend) such a move - I just state that I am doing so myself, as you should never lister to someone without skin in the game. I wish you all well :) DYOR. NFA. Neve take the words of others as a given!
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
6
Time to sell SPY/Buy VIX imo.Hi folks! If you believe that technical analysis has any prediction power at all (I highly doubt that it has in any other environment than highly speculative ones due to self-fulfilling prophecy) and you are net long the S&P500, then you might want to rethink. - Very soon (possibly) testing broken trendline from march 2020 - Massive divergence on volume since trend broke (Volume follows VIX - not a good sign!) - Massive divergence on RSI - VIX at very low levels In addition to this, the money flow indicator - usually a sound fundamental indicator - shows a serious divergence. Add that to the macroeconomic picture and the pricing (much more important than the other factors I just stated), and it would be a rather compelling case for selling the broad U.S. stock market. I got rid of my last long exposure to U.S. stocks now and loaded up on VIX futures (VIXY) throughout this week - currently holding 85% (!) of my portfolio in such contracts- DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well! :) Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
2
SPY heading south for a long winterMonthly candles show just how much meat is on the bone for bears. RSI is just now exiting overbought territory, IV rank/percentile is making a move upward, MACD is quickly losing momentum, and US10Y yield is going to go skyward next year which is unquestionably going to shake out some big players. Based on support dating back to the 2008 CDO bubble and ensuing crash, it's my belief we're going to 300 and possibly lower by Jan/Feb next year. Everyone is saying we need a news catalyst; we don't. We are in the 400s because of irresponsible and debatably criminal monetary policy and we are hearing from the very perpetrators of this that we can expect tapering soon. Jpow could be out and who knows who could be in. Even the most bullish investors are uncertain right now. The question isn't "what's needed to bring the market down", it's "by what miracle will the market remain where it is".
AMEX:SPYShort
by djo77721
5
SPX S&P500 SPY Weekly Prediction/Historical Correction AnalysisIn this weekly analysis, I noticed a similarity in the market correction of the 2nd and 3rd week of May 2021 to the current environment. As we can see from the chart, in May, the market first dropped below the support level of an ascending channel which then transformed itself into a resistance level. In the following weeks the index traded in the ascending parallel channel just below the previous support line. I expect a similar behavior this week. In this regard, the market should first pull back to the 4365-4375 area and then recover up to the dashed resistance level. After that, I expect the index to trade in the dashed ascending channel in the upcoming weeks. Trading idea: Bearish vertical call spread. Short strike 4510 / Long strike 4515, Expiration Oct 1st 2021 for a credit of about $0.55 vs a collateral of $4.45 which corresponds to a 0.10 delta trade (about 90% probability of success) and an expected ROI of 12.36%.
SP:SPX
by CucabarraTrading
Warning Signals S&P500 SPX500 SPX DJI DJT - Macro Analysis🚨We are nearing a Dow-Sell-Signal acc. to the new Dow-Theory🚨 We had a drop of more than 3% S&P and Dow which is causing a secondary reaction. If the S&P stays below $4400 the secondary reaction is confirmed. This is the FIRST step acc. to the Dow-Theory system by Jack Schannep! The economy is still in a major post-pandemic depression and many S&P500 companies are not profitable anymore! FED has pumped up the stock market artificially with free funny money that it has even broken above a resistance trend-line (cyan line) which exists since 1936 and at the same time the Buffet indicator indicates an extreme overvalued sell signal! Also the Wave Trend Oscillator, MACD and StochRSI has crossed bearish at 2W TF & 3W TF recently which means that bullish momentum is exhausted and that we are at a tipping point right now. Basically it was a bullish signal that the $SPX has broken through the resistance trend-line (cyan line) but I think this was just a so called "overthrow" or "fake out"! Since May 2021 we have a divergence between the Dow-Jones and the Dow transportation average which is a disconfirmation of the stock bull market. SMI (smart money indicator) shows that smart money is scaling out for months now (not shown on chart). Furthermore, sentiment signals also indicated very rare warning signals. For instance, Jason Goepfert's (sentiment-trader) indicators flashed rare warning signals recently, which means that there is a high spread between bear market probability and macro index models. Last time Jason´s sentiment indicator showed such a high spread was 14 years ago! Also Robert Prechter's Bear Market Prediction (Macro Elliott Wave Analysis with Fibonacci-Cycles) is confirming that we are nearing the end of a major stock bull market soon. Ray Dalio´s debt cycle model (Short & Long-Term Debt-Cycles) is also indicating that we are on the verge of a serve debt crisis which will cause a major post-pandemic depression similar to 1929. Currently the consensus (the herd) is thinking that we are currently in a high inflationary environment, but this was just a temporary spike in inflation rate which is currently at a dipping point. A deflationary shock will come sooner or later but an accurate predication when this will happen is impossible. When the debt bubble implodes (credit crunch) there will be high deflation also when it could be short-lived (economic depressions are usually deflationary). Also smart-money is betting on deflation which is anticipated in the recent raise of bond prices. At the end of the debt cycle central banks will expand the money supply even further (more money printing) which could cause high inflation but this also depends on factors like velocity of money and on the credit supply. For instance Japan is in a depression for approximately 30 years and there is still no high inflation due to manipulation with negative interest rate policy (NIRP). However, you should know that in the background the elite has already established plans for the great reset which will force everyone to transition into a new monetary system. Banks and other financial institutions will use “Ice-Nine freezes” to get your money! Be prepared and have CASH on the sidelines. This could get very ugly! Of course these major stock market signals also have negative impact on cryptos as well... We recommend to accumulate gold and silver during the deflationary shock. Also US treasury bonds usually are a good investment in a low-interest rate environment (=raising bond prices). A deflationary shock will be a very good opportunity :-) Disclaimer! I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading decisions. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
SP:SPXShort
by Asset-Ethology
1