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Spyshort
Bear Pennat in SPYSeems like a bear pennant is forming.
Further market direction depends on the side that we break out of.
I am sour so i want to see a solid move down from these levels.
However, very aggressive buying is going on today.
Loaded SQQQ, SPXS, UVXY, SDOW and a some puts. Either getting paid or getting my ass handed to me.
SPY heading south for a long winterMonthly candles show just how much meat is on the bone for bears. RSI is just now exiting overbought territory, IV rank/percentile is making a move upward, MACD is quickly losing momentum, and US10Y yield is going to go skyward next year which is unquestionably going to shake out some big players. Based on support dating back to the 2008 CDO bubble and ensuing crash, it's my belief we're going to 300 and possibly lower by Jan/Feb next year. Everyone is saying we need a news catalyst; we don't. We are in the 400s because of irresponsible and debatably criminal monetary policy and we are hearing from the very perpetrators of this that we can expect tapering soon. Jpow could be out and who knows who could be in. Even the most bullish investors are uncertain right now.
The question isn't "what's needed to bring the market down", it's "by what miracle will the market remain where it is".
SPY / ES1 BEARISHPrice has bounced off a demand zone after todays drop. Price is looking to rally up to fill the imbalances that were left behind from the morning drop to grab more liquidity and test supply zone before taking price further down.
If price fails to break and hold above $433, sellers will look to take price down to $4234.00 by end of week where there is a naked POC waiting to be filled.
SPYWould be nice to get a drop to 410-420 for a nice buy the dip opportunity into the year end
365 would definitely be a gift.
180 in 2023? Jk (not)
We will see what Powell and Yellowstein has in store for us.
There are a million reasons to be bullish and a million reasons to be bearish. You pick the side you want to be on. I am 60/40 but may change my mind in the next 5 mins. You are welcome to do the same.
SPX S&P500 SPY Weekly Prediction/Historical Correction AnalysisIn this weekly analysis, I noticed a similarity in the market correction of the 2nd and 3rd week of May 2021 to the current environment.
As we can see from the chart, in May, the market first dropped below the support level of an ascending channel which then transformed itself into a resistance level. In the following weeks the index traded in the ascending parallel channel just below the previous support line.
I expect a similar behavior this week. In this regard, the market should first pull back to the 4365-4375 area and then recover up to the dashed resistance level. After that, I expect the index to trade in the dashed ascending channel in the upcoming weeks.
Trading idea: Bearish vertical call spread.
Short strike 4510 / Long strike 4515, Expiration Oct 1st 2021 for a credit of about $0.55 vs a collateral of $4.45 which corresponds to a 0.10 delta trade (about 90% probability of success) and an expected ROI of 12.36%.
Warning Signals S&P500 SPX500 SPX DJI DJT - Macro Analysis🚨We are nearing a Dow-Sell-Signal acc. to the new Dow-Theory🚨
We had a drop of more than 3% S&P and Dow which is causing a secondary reaction. If the S&P stays below $4400 the secondary reaction is confirmed.
This is the FIRST step acc. to the Dow-Theory system by Jack Schannep!
The economy is still in a major post-pandemic depression and many S&P500 companies are not profitable anymore! FED has pumped up the stock market artificially with free funny money that it has even broken above a resistance trend-line (cyan line) which exists since 1936 and at the same time the Buffet indicator indicates an extreme overvalued sell signal! Also the Wave Trend Oscillator, MACD and StochRSI has crossed bearish at 2W TF & 3W TF recently which means that bullish momentum is exhausted and that we are at a tipping point right now.
Basically it was a bullish signal that the $SPX has broken through the resistance trend-line (cyan line) but I think this was just a so called "overthrow" or "fake out"!
Since May 2021 we have a divergence between the Dow-Jones and the Dow transportation average which is a disconfirmation of the stock bull market. SMI (smart money indicator) shows that smart money is scaling out for months now (not shown on chart). Furthermore, sentiment signals also indicated very rare warning signals. For instance, Jason Goepfert's (sentiment-trader) indicators flashed rare warning signals recently, which means that there is a high spread between bear market probability and macro index models. Last time Jason´s sentiment indicator showed such a high spread was 14 years ago! Also Robert Prechter's Bear Market Prediction (Macro Elliott Wave Analysis with Fibonacci-Cycles) is confirming that we are nearing the end of a major stock bull market soon.
Ray Dalio´s debt cycle model (Short & Long-Term Debt-Cycles) is also indicating that we are on the verge of a serve debt crisis which will cause a major post-pandemic depression similar to 1929.
Currently the consensus (the herd) is thinking that we are currently in a high inflationary environment, but this was just a temporary spike in inflation rate which is currently at a dipping point. A deflationary shock will come sooner or later but an accurate predication when this will happen is impossible. When the debt bubble implodes (credit crunch) there will be high deflation also when it could be short-lived (economic depressions are usually deflationary).
Also smart-money is betting on deflation which is anticipated in the recent raise of bond prices.
At the end of the debt cycle central banks will expand the money supply even further (more money printing) which could cause high inflation but this also depends on factors like velocity of money and on the credit supply. For instance Japan is in a depression for approximately 30 years and there is still no high inflation due to manipulation with negative interest rate policy (NIRP).
However, you should know that in the background the elite has already established plans for the great reset which will force everyone to transition into a new monetary system.
Banks and other financial institutions will use “Ice-Nine freezes” to get your money!
Be prepared and have CASH on the sidelines. This could get very ugly!
Of course these major stock market signals also have negative impact on cryptos as well...
We recommend to accumulate gold and silver during the deflationary shock.
Also US treasury bonds usually are a good investment in a low-interest rate environment (=raising bond prices).
A deflationary shock will be a very good opportunity :-)
Disclaimer!
I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only!
You can use the information from the post to make your own trading decisions.
Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
SPYI think 1 more push to $469 to test the fib extension lvl 1.618 and complete 5 wave cycle on the daily
$TZA Long Idea$TZA broke long-term EMA cloud and is going to test the 200D VWAP along with the most recent trend line. If structural decline continues to happen on $SPY (looking like it will for at least another day or so this week) then this could be a good play.
$SPY is nearing a top. Price levels to watch on the way downAfter a 100%+ run during a pandemic, I think we're finally nearing a top in the stock market... How low will we go is the real question?
I've marked some important levels and dates to watch on the way down. Let's see how far we drop.
SPY SHORTLet the good times roll, went into cash Thursday last week and continuing to take shorts against the SPY. Will start to pyramid back into long positions because a lot of things on the shopping list are coming up fairly priced now.
SPY SHORTCall me crazy, but I'm looking for a Gap down tomorrow. The 17th of September is historically the day the SPY gets weaker. I'm going into cash in my long-term portfolio and I'm going to sit on it for a while and take shorts on the SPY until I see a reason to get back in long again after hitting all-time highs last week. This trade is for me and we will soon find out if I was right or wrong?!?!
$SPY I Don't Think It's Done Yet 📉💩!There is a possibility we can see another dip on the $SPY today. We are coming out of a head and shoulders pattern I think many of us totally missed because of greed and feeling like this massive uptrend would never end. Well now it's time to focus and pay attention. What I didn't touch on in the video were the Fib levels or the neckline breakout and TP because I happen t add it after the video was done so just check it out it speaks for itself. In my opinion the market is about to see some upside until about November after this dip and then we should like Red Fox see "The Big One!"... Oh I think we may be coming too, Elizabeth!
*** Just to add the possibility for the $SPY to reach back to the $460s in a big push before the huge dump isn't far a possibility either so look for some huge increases in your portfolios if you bought on the dips because the whales know whats coming so why not pump the market one last time to make some great gains then pull the rug? Just something to think about. ***
THE $SPY IS ABOUT TO STEP IN SOME S#%*!Don't worry its just a small dose of the 💩💩💩💩 to come. We should see this all bounce back to the $450's in a few days so hold your positions just shift where necessary. But be prepared next month if not by this months end we will see another 3%-5% dip. But in my opinion we have no real worries until December.
SPY 500 Price Target PredictionHere is the Price Target we will most likely in Monday - Wednesday. 50 Day Moving Average is creating support for the downtrend, and once the price dips right below it, it bounces back up. 50 DMA is expected to be around 441.50 and the lowest price we should reach is 439.50 - 441.50. If we take a look at the Short Squeeze Momentum Graph, we can see that we are in the red levels, which means we should expect red in the coming days until we reach green. Also, we hit four negative days in a row going into five. If we go into five which we most likely will, it will be a first time in 6 months we hit five consecutive days going negative. If we take a look into the RSI, 2 Hour Graph, we can see that it's almost oversold, we should expect the RSI to hit 20-25 considering this is allegedly the most volatile month of the year in the Stock Market. Once it hits the oversold levels below 30 going into the low-mid 20's, we should expect a huge bounce probably to the overbought levels. As for the actual chart, it's hard to say this but, if we do, theoretically bounce on Monday which we probably won't, we may create a Head and Shoulders pattern. If we take look at the chart and focus from August 23rd to now, we can see that it already formed a shoulder, and it already formed a head. If we bounce on Monday, we will most likely form another shoulder and should see a huge sell off. AMEX:SPY
2% Seems To Be The Precursor... $SPY🕵🏾♂️Since May 2021... the $SPY has had 5 (five) 2% dips that have corrected. During the last run up prior to this 18mo push, the $SPY dipped 3 times before taking the big dip. Granted the last move was a shorter time period, so I would think that the fact that it has more dips can be seen in correlation to its length. Prepare for a correction soon. In my head I'm thinking we can see a 5%-12% dip in the coming weeks... if not days... unless Uncle Sam continues to play this printing game things could get ugly for a lot of portfolios....
$SPX Short - Pullback is due$SPY overvalued and overbought, pullback due.
meme stocks
tapering
crypto distraction
It's almost that time againSpy has been doing beautifully. But the price action has been hampered in part by the economic outlook that was presented these past few days. As such, i do look to see a breakout of channel to the downside may not be a crash like most are calling it but just a correction and most like V's it way back to 460's
You Already Know What This Means...If you have been following this channel for some time you know how important this divergence is.
Add the fact that demand is used up, expect it to be removed over the next few weeks.
Volume decreasing, price increasing = Bearish
No new demand being created and previous demand is used up.
Negative fundamental news for the U.S with biden/afghanistan, audits on the way, calls for resignation, basic FUD etc
Short Bias for now.
S&P500 - Shame on bearsI know bears are known to be lazy but this much? So bad!
When they smell food, they go for it, and over here they are still sleeping..
Wakeup! Wakeup! It's time
Smell the coffee and go for honey in the target zone
Short Term Bullish Trend before correctionThis chart is from last Aug to this Aug. Last Aug SPY went up to break the upper trend line till Sep 3rd with similar low volume but from Sep 3rd it went to a correction of 10% -11%.
This year we are in a similar setup, SPY pushing higher with low volume and the upper trend line is about to break we could see SPY hit around 460+ by Sep first week before we see a correction of 10-11%
SPY had the support of 125MA last Aug so this time it might get support around 125MA which sits around 414 which is approx 10% down from 460spy level, but if that doesn't hold this it could turn into a nasty correction which could drag on to all Sept and Oct.
IF you note, then you will see RSI is not yet reached a peak level so there is room for RSI that is also a reason in the short term SPY could keep on pushing plus in options market PUT ratio is at an all-time high and ppl are shorting SPY which could create a short squeeze that could push the SPY to a blow of top.
So in Summary - SPY in short term could hit around 460+ or - around the end of Aug or first week of Sept from there it will have a pull back of 10-11% which is around 414 level.
