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A Troublesome Outlook for Stocks SPY on 1 Month. In the last 12 Years we have seen 8+ Corrections Occur after a Doji Candle has formed on the One Month Chart. According to Investopedia "A doji candlestick forms when a security's open and close are virtually equal for the given time period and generally signals a reversal pattern for technical analysts." I have pin pointed 12 moments in the past 12 years where these candle formations have lead to a correction. (Not all Doji candles are perfect, the main detail I am looking for is an Open and Close that are virtually equal) All percentages were tallied at close of each month not wick. October, 2007 % Lost: 53% On October, 2007 a Green Doji Candle Formed, after that candle formed a green candle didn't form for the next 5 months, and the market fell over 50% for the next year and a 1/2. April, 2010 % Lost: 16% On April, 2010 a Green Doji Candle Formed, over the next 2 months the market saw a major correction of 16%. Now what is different about this correction compared to the 2008 crash is that volume was below the average at least 3 months prior. AVG 5.7B, ACT 3.9B. Now this is a trend we will see prior to the corrections in the future. April, 2011 % Lost: 18% On April, 2011 a Red Doji Candle formed, over the next 4 months the market fell 18%. The Volume 3 months prior was below the average, AVG 4B, ACT 2B. A new trend that we will see from here on out is that the bottom occurs around the 55 EMA line. April, 2012 % Lost: 9% April 20, 2012 a Red Doji Candle formed, over the next month the market fell 9% right around to the 55 EMA. The Volume 3 months prior was AVG 4.2, ACT 3B. Below Average. April, May, July, 2015 %Lost: 10% These 3 months each had a Green Doji candle leading up to a market correction of 10%. Which Lasted 7 Months, and two wicks ended around the 55 EMA. The volume was below the average at AVG 2.3B, ACT 1.9B. September, 2018 % Lost 15% On September, 2018 a Green Doji formed, for the next 4 months after the market fell 15%, and a wick landed right around the 55 EMA. The Volume 3 Months before was AVG 1.6B, ACT 1.3B. January, 2020 % Lost 23% On January 2020 a Red Doji formed, over the next 3 months the market fell 23%, and closed on the 55 EMA. At its peak the market fell 33%. 3 Months prior the Volume was below average Rectangle Future Outlook: The Last Two Months have been shaping up like the 7 corrections previously stated. 4 out of the last 5 months have been below average AVG 1.8B, ACT 1B. with TWO GREEN DOJI CANDLES FORMING. Not to mention the Market going up 40% in the last 15 month, Rates Expected to raise soon, Inflation expectations increased drastically, the Fed Artificially Stimulating the market (possibly easing up soon), 6 Trillion+ being printed in one year (possible 3 trillion more soon) Things are not looking good for the stock market. We all need to face the fact that a stock market crash/correction is coming. The average of the last 7 Doji Corrections is 14%. If The SPY drops 14% it will go to $360. The Last 6 Corrections have ended on or near the 55 EMA. if the SPY falls that far, it will fall around 28% to $303. Only time will be able to tell what happens next, but things are not looking good. What do you think.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Walkerwc2
7
S&P 500 / SPY Breaks Down to Support, Bounce or Larger Crash?The S&P 500 has broken down to trendline support after a failed breakout at 4240. The SPY index formed a high at 4238 and tried to break it at 4255, but failed to hold above that alltimehigh. It is now testing trendline support, and the question is whether price will bounce here at support or will support fail to hold and thus lead to a much larger correction. Part of the reason that I'm looking at the S&P500 even though I mostly focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is that the correlation between the two has recently been quite high, and they have both been retracing in the past few days, so a recovery in the S&P500 could also bode well for a recovery in Bitcoin and the wider cryptoassets. The key level to watch is 4175. If this level holds, then we remain above the trendline and can expect another leg up. If we close below 4175, then be prepared for some volatility upon trendline break as we might have formed a double top, which will likely also trickle over to Bitcoin and other risk-on assets as well. Of course, it's possible that what we are seeing is similar to what we saw back in March, when price failed to hold a higher high, broke down a bit, and then rallied higher. If price does break down, then the 200 day moving average at 3900 should serve as ultimate support, though I'd think that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve would have stepped in before that happens.
SP:SPXShort
by cryptotraderog
7
SPY - Still see a Market Correction in the near future.Made this video to look at what I'm seeing in the market that has me a little on edge. Looking at the Weekly and Daily chart of the S&P. We can't continue to push the limits like we have for the past 5 years. Something has to give soon. The RSI is showing a broadening down trend for the past few years, with an uptrend support cutting through. This is creating a Pennant in the higher range of the RSI and it's not looking favorable to the upside, once the breakout occurs. The MACD confirms the uneasiness in the market, as it's drawing out to a torn flag in the wind. This shows a dispute in the market. BASL3, which may take affect on June 28th, could push price up, as this has a high potential to drive precious metals up. Only if the Dollar stays flat or dips a little. Keep a close eye on the markets movement over the coming Months. I expect this week to be a red week for the S&P. As always, hedge wisely and keep some money as buying power. It's always good to know that you're prepared for the rainy day.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ReadyFor401k
9
SPY 422.60 + 0.91 % SHORT IDEA * REVERSAL PATTERNS & PRICEHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE S & P 500 INDEX. That has been trading in a rising wedge looking for a shift in momentum of the index should we push down with the bears to see a break below of structure looking for sells on the index a break above of the support level signals continuation and cancels the trading idea. * follow your entry rules on entries * significant moves with the bears change the plan. lets see how it goes. many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules. HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN... _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES RISK-MANAGEMENT PERIOD - SWING TRADE __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PULEMokhothu
2
SP500 - SHORT; Nothing but Shorts (SELL!!) here!A ~25% decline from here should be rather quick and uneventful. However, such a decline is likely to be just the first leg on a long road to a full ~70% decline by the end of this full cycle. - Which would be nothing more than a garden variety return to the Historic Norm ! The same goes for all US Indexes and those who are historically informed (or reviewed the evidence, presented in virtually every single recent post) should not be surprised at all. The Carry Trade Currencies - and equivalents relative to the VIX post;
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
5