SPY: Time to EjectPretty sure we are getting to a point where we need to pull back. To what level, I'm not entirely sure, but let's start here.
Spyshort
SPY - TECHNICAL - Leviathan will Fall - Hedge Play- Most Bearish scenario: already at the end of ending diagonal
- Bearish scenario 2: Ending diagonal then correction
- Bullish scenario: Starting Leading Diagonal
2/19 puts have almost 0 premium, low risk, high reward play
$SPY is set to PlummetAMEX:SPY
The S&P 500 is just about fully overextended and we are due for a good size correction. Fundamentally, most markets are just full of froth at this point with the Fed continuing to keep interest rates near the 0% mark. Numerous fortune 500 companies balance sheets are extremely over leveraged and seem to be taking on more and more risk. An example of this would be Tesla purchasing $1.5B worth of Bitcoin with their cash reserves today. If the markets were to plummet tomorrow, and Tesla investing almost 8% of their cash into a highly speculative asset would have catastrophic implications if they both were to fall simultaneously. Rarely has Finance rewarded individuals for long when the average joe is comfortable and confident.
Technically looking at the 1D chart we can see various signs of concern. The RSI is not quite yet oversold but has been flirting with the idea for quite some time. Every time the RSI has gone into "oversold" territory we saw at least a -10% drawdown. You will also notice the MASSIVE bearish divergence between price and RSI (highlighted by the purple lines) that has been building for over a year, which has been the entire time of the "V shaped" recovery. The last technical component that stands out to me, which happens to be my favorite, is that price has been following the red fractal on the chart since late November. This fractal is an analog of price from Mar/Feb 2020 and we all know what happened there...
I see price topping out between $400-405 and having a -30% drawdown to $280 before any sort of basing bottom is attempted. After that, price has the upside potential of $500+
Be safe out there and take what the market gives you.
- PennyBags
390 then ded 🔨not sure how long this correction will last, but it won't be a pretty one.
i am stepping away from this for awhile, this will be my last post until i return.
good luck peeps.
The Big Short (SPY/ES)DONT TIME THE TOP! I post these charts as a warning to be catious, i barely trade puts bc we are in a rally and i will enjoy and make money every day of it with all these great opportunities instead of getting killed by going against a trend.
However, this is my big short plan, i'll be adding into this position with the first sign of a big rejection as a confirmation, expecting this anywhere between now, 388-390 and 395 at the very max. Happy trading :)!
SPY On Life Support Or On The Verge To Blow?I think we can all agree the market seems to have just been crushing this past year, with TONS of money being injected in and specific large companies doing great throughout the pandemic...but when does this slow down?
The WallSteetsBet thing has some positives and negatives in my opinion....I am 28 so I feel like I am a middle child between two generation and have a good reasoning with both the older and younger generations. With that being said, WSB brought in TONS of new retail investors from the younger generation that Robinhood and Webull type platforms hadn't brought in yet.....dumping all their money in not only the "MEME" stocks but across all their favorite sectors....whilst the older generations that still watch the mainstream media see the market as a scam and their fear of "the kids trying to crash the market" has set in and they are pulling 401k and long term investments to get things like gold and silver....or just to hold cash.
Now back to this surge of new retail investors that came into the market, lets all be real here....the hedge funds are here to make money and they see this....my PERSONAL OPINION is that they let these kids get in, run some of these sectors up one last time(after that nice pullback/buying opportunity last week) make them feel good about their "investments" and then they pull the rug as many of these companies have had such great run ups since March....it seems like it would be great time to get some nice money off the top.
You can see the bearish divergence as well as the sell zones I have created in my attached 1 hour chart. If you pull up spy and look at the last couple double tops, like the one we are seeing here, it is usually followed by a decent size correction....but we shall see.
With all this in mind, I am only 6 months into trading and will be the first to admit I don't know the macros and behind the scenes like many others on here might....so please comment your thoughts and opinions so we can all learn!
the perfect stormwith $DXY starting to breakout of a year long falling wedge, things are about to get interesting.
While my target is only at 360, we may go much lower if the DXY case plays out.
this may go tits up2\5 360p at .79
2\12 360p at 2.43
tight stop if we get a 1h close above this black line
$SPY Correction time, how deep do we go?My observation, when Price falls through 1W 12ma (pink ma), it's extremely likely Price will hit 50ma (blue ma) or get within 2% of it.
I went short 1/26/21. Might've nailed shorting the ATH, but it's very possible we bounce off 1W 12ma and make a slightly ATH and then dump hard just we've done in 2018/2019. I'm not closing until I see some fear, might even just skip the 1st buy target. I have to think about it. This could all take 1-2 months. But with so many peoples eyes on the news and on stocks becasue of GME, ATC, TSLA... and so many new traders, so much euphoria in the market, this seems like the top. Just like bitcoin in 2017. The general population is always too late. If we're going down hard in 2021 for whatever reason (there's always something to blame) this is a solid game plan that's hard to mess up. I haven't decided how much to buy and how much short to cover at each target but I'll do the math later.
Buy Targets:
1) 3D 50ma = ~3500 blue horizontal 9% Drop
2a) 3D 100ma = 3300 bright green 14% Drop
2b) 1W 100ma = 3200 dark green 18% Drop (Nearly guaranteed a solid bounce here)
3) 1W 200ma = 2900 Unless things go fucking crazy, this should be the last one. Orange line 24% Drop 2-3x leveraged Tech ETF like QLD or TQQQ.
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4) 2200 - 2400 area would scare the shit out of a lot of people, but I would go all in here, 2-3x leveraged Tech ETF like QLD or TQQQ.
Likely won't get here.
$SPY $SPX Market correction imminent. SPY to 338The GME saga has gone for too long. Jan. 29th saw Robinhood and co. go to desperate measures to prevent irreparable damage to the market.
- The puny market pump for Big Tech ER is almost over. Nothing can hold it up anymore.
- 70 billion has been lost by short institutions, and they are long positions to cover their short position
- The short interest remains over 130%, if the data is to be believed. It is possible that that it is in actuality much higher. Shareholders now own over 100% of the company's shares. The extend of fake shares existing for naked shorting is unknown.
- Silver is the next target on the chopping block for short squeezers. Major banks, direct arms of the Federal Reserve, are at risk of liquidation on their short positions.
- Prepare for volatile times.
Current Silver Squeeze (Jan.28 Idea):
SPXI think we push up from here or test 3610 and then turn up. But after that we should drop back down to form the massive IH&S on daily TF
SPY - are we going to see a final pump before the big dump?This is all a speculation ofcourse. No one can time the burst of the bubble. But last week showed us how crazy the market is right now.
The exact same things happened before the Dot Com Bubble burst. Just be wary of longterm trades
Correction in 1Q 2021This pattern reminds a period about a year ago. There are some visible similarities in january 2020 and january 2021
I think we might see some correction in near future in 1Q of 2021. Whole market seems kinda overhyped like DOGE or GME.
In context also a bond market looking bullish and will decide about the future.
Stay save manage your risk.
$SPY Daily. The night before the meme stocks' drama unravels.Divergence on RSI as we retract to 0.38 key level after a 30+ point gap down on SPX on Wednesday. A gap down is in place again with new South Africa virus variant and an exposed liquidity problem. There are 3 key levels that SPY could bounce off of, but 376 must be held or the weekly trend will be broken and we could flush down quickly.
S&P500 hourly chart pans out bearish bias adn what is next...As highlighted previously, this is a breakdown of the technical development of yesterday's market tank.
26 Jan gave heads up of the impending trend change.
There were two ranges (white rectangles) pre and post Trump-Biden transition
Lower High and Lower Low series happened, then it puked...
VIX gave clear and present danger heads up (another story in review)
So how now, brown cow?
Bounce underway... should see stalling about 3780
and then look for next breakdown to 3600
SPY Short (UVXY: a crash or just a pullback? )If you look at the chart i posted earlier. Well here's your breakout :(
I took a lotto 6/18 50c @ 1.00 and sold for @ 3.50 just now. Lets see where the market goes from here. Be patient and ride the trend!
The Great panic: $SPY reversal underway?!S&P Starts out on fire.
Huge reversal is pushing it way down.
Luck never mattered, but it especially doesn't now.
While everyone pushes the panic button, will you?
These two recent red candles are ominous as can be.
Trying not to overreact now becomes the name of this game, we suppose.
-BDR
Waiting for Alignment to enter Possible Wave 4 Down 25%!!!If this is wave 3 up of a descending diagonal, we can expect a drop of 25% to 282 with a risk of less than 1% at 385. Weekly momentum is bearish with daily bullish momentum. Be on the lookout for daily bearish momentum to take the next daily bearish entry signal! AMEX:SPY
$SPY - END OF BULL RUN? FIRST TARGET $324 $SPXPumping of dollar into the market is done and right now THE MARKET IS INSANE and TIP OF ICEBERG.
This time, it is beyond 2008 crash where the market has to correct more than 70% by end of 2021 - 2022.
After the major dip $324, market will bounce back near to ALL TIME HIGH where the newbies, investors, traders etc will try to catch the falling knife where the market enters into COMPLACENCY phase and then market takes a DEEP CUT.
There are a lot of reasons for this MAJOR & DEEP correction.
Good Luck.
