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Spyshort

S&P500 hourly chart pans out bearish bias adn what is next...As highlighted previously, this is a breakdown of the technical development of yesterday's market tank. 26 Jan gave heads up of the impending trend change. There were two ranges (white rectangles) pre and post Trump-Biden transition Lower High and Lower Low series happened, then it puked... VIX gave clear and present danger heads up (another story in review) So how now, brown cow? Bounce underway... should see stalling about 3780 and then look for next breakdown to 3600
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
$SPY - END OF BULL RUN? FIRST TARGET $324 $SPXPumping of dollar into the market is done and right now THE MARKET IS INSANE and TIP OF ICEBERG. This time, it is beyond 2008 crash where the market has to correct more than 70% by end of 2021 - 2022. After the major dip $324, market will bounce back near to ALL TIME HIGH where the newbies, investors, traders etc will try to catch the falling knife where the market enters into COMPLACENCY phase and then market takes a DEEP CUT. There are a lot of reasons for this MAJOR & DEEP correction. Good Luck.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Gem-Hunter
9
Will history repeat again for DXY? Watch movement closely!On the weekly chart we see a couple of similarities in price action and formation. Currently DXY is bottoming at its support. Notice a couple of things: -Timestamps on both periods in bottoming and price formation. -Exact same bottoming progress in a blow of top, a seloff a bounce and a consolidation around high timeframe support What indicates this? -A dollar pump would be bad for asset prices, crypto and gold. -If this patterns follows 2018, as it already did we will likely see a March equity seloff based on timestamp and price formation. HOWEVER: Fundamentals are different comparing to 2018 with mass stimulus and low interest rates. Normally if dollar loses this support, we will be safe and equities will soar again. If this range holds for a long time, it is best to derisk equities around late february, before the hedgefunds spot this. To be continued.
TVC:DXY
by legendtrader666
5
S&P500 Weekly Topped... Set for a FALLThe past week appeared to be well until Friday, when the 'US equity markets pulled back hard suddenly (after Biden's release of stimulus details, on the contrary). The turnaround was highlighted as it happened, see linked idea. Now that the week is done, the technical outlook strongly suggest a top in the S&P500 ES1! futures. Candlestick pattern formed is known as the inside candle, the first part of a Three Inside Down, typically seen at tops... and yes, the incoming week, should end down to complete the pattern. IF it gaps down on Monday open, then it would be shifting the bearish bias further in. The last time we saw something similar was about a year ago, at the onset of global pandemic realization. What followed was a massive slide down a very slippery slope. Despite worse off (economic) conditions than a year ago, the index is higher than when all these started. And taking into account the current global situation, we find ourselves in a larger global Wave 2 , just surpassed 2 million deaths globally on Friday. That is the first and most obvious divergence. Other technical divergences are apparent, with the MACD and MACD Histograms clearly indicating that this bull run is not sustainable by any measure. The Relative Price Indicator shows a clearer divergence, having just crossed down. A pertinent point on this chart is that over and above the clear divergence, price moved out of the daily Bollinger Bands and just got pulled back in. At the very least, this action tends to have a typical movement over to the other Bollinger Band, placing the first downside target at about 3600, then next stop at 3200. Watch as the week develops... For those not invested, it is going to be a very good real time example, especially if you see how it develops fractally over the daily chart, the 4H and 1H chart. For those who are invested, it is perhaps time to review, and draw some lines, maybe do some hedging plans, etc. Have a great week ahead!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (4 Jan – 8 Jan 2021)Markets will face their first major challenge of 2021 as the rapid spread of a new, more contagious coronavirus strain means that economic gains could still be a way off. The December jobs report on upcoming Friday could show that the pace of hiring is slowing down amid renewed pandemic-related restrictions on businesses. Meanwhile, energy traders will be turning their attention to Monday’s OPEC+ meeting where another output boost is on the agenda. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) rallied with a modest gain of +1.43% (53 points) during the final week of 2020, closing at an all time high of 3,756. At the current junction, $SPX price action remains within the tight 3% trend channel range highlighted; and there will be expectation of a minor correction in the upcoming week in technical perspective, with $SPX trading near the upper bound resistance of its trend channel. Additionally, a short term price-volume bearish divergence is also been observed.  The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, a break of the lower trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Vaccine rollout With U.S. case numbers surging and vaccinations proceeding more slowly than projected Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to enlist veterinarians and combat medics to give out coronavirus vaccinations. While the U.S. has approved two vaccines, rollout is going more slowly than the government hoped. About 2.8 million Americans received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, falling far short of a 20 million target. The U.S. is averaging 186,000 cases a day, down from a peak in mid-December of over 218,000 new infections each day. Health officials have warned that cases will likely spike again after holiday gatherings. 2. December jobs report The first major U.S. data point of 2021 will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers, which could show a loss of momentum in the labor market. November data already indicated the employment market was losing steam, with 245,000 new jobs added, the fewest in six months. For December, expectations are for an even smaller 100,000 gain. 3. OPEC+ to debate supply vs. demand The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia are to hold a virtual meeting on Monday. Oil prices ended December with gains in a positive end to a year that saw U.S. futures turn negative for the first time ever in April. In December OPEC+ held back from plans to boost output by 2 million barrels per day after implementing a record 7.7 million bpd supply cut earlier in the year to shore up prices. Instead, it increased output by 500,000 bpd and agreed that additional monthly adjustments would not exceed that amount. Russia has indicated that it will support another 500,000 bpd production increase from February, despite concerns from others in the group that it is still too early.
UShort
by jfsrevg