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SPY Inverse Cup and HandleSo, this is what I'm looking at on SPY moving forward, and it's currently my most likely scenario. I think the US is headed towards a type of lockdown varying in severity, but i'd bet on it happening. I also believe if Joe Biden wins, his strategy may be to inverse Trump & go into lockdown mode (as American sentiment towards Trump's handling of COVID is majority negative). So, I believe this drawdown we're currently experiencing heads back to demand at 320. There's no big buyers stepping in yet, and no reason for them to. After earnings AH today, there's not one major positive catalyst pre election. So, 320 by Election Day is my base case. Then, a quick bounce in the days after, as by that point we'll have been oversold, big buyers should return and start scaling in, and we see a break back over 330 for the handle. The certainty that comes with even just having the election over and decided should provide a positive jolt to the market, with the actual choice of President potentially being secondary. Now, assume Biden wins. It seems he has the momentum coming into Tuesday, so I'll operate on that assumption. Suppose we are at the 330 level end of next week, handle completed. As mentioned before, I believe news comes out about Biden's plan to close parts of the economy, and most likely the news is spread over the course of a week or so, SPY drops, breaks demand zone, and we experience a series of smaller timeframe demand breaks. Our next solid demand on an hourly chart comes around 312. Side note: Check out SPY weekly chart. An ABC correction is still very, very much in play. I've marked it off on my chart. Start thinking about scaling into long term positions. Disclosure: We are short SPY in an option position.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Jomo_Davis
2
SPY 2 hour chart - Creeping back into downward price channelYesterday SPY 200MA crossed the 50MA on the 2 hours chart. Today's pop was definitely driven by short coverings. SPY is now heading back into the downward price channel starting a new "A" wave as we head into the uncertainty of today's election. Pennsylvania results, unless there's a landslide, will not have results tonight or by tomorrow due to the Supreme courts decision to allow counting mail-in ballots up to three days after the election. There's a high probability certified results will not be known by Wednesday and both parties are ready to contest results, which would lead to a drop in markets. I am holding SPY Puts as a hedge against my calls in my swing trades.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Fibonacci43
1
TRICK OR TREAT - CORRECTION PLAYBOOKHello! I hope many of you have been prepared for a pull in the indexes. The whole move lower right now is fueled by the fact that nobody owns protection into November, which is crazy considering there are elections coming, and now suddenly all the fund managers and retail crowd are slowly starting to realize it. The correction is very much needed to let some air out of the overblown equities market. I am expecting a pull below /ES 3200 level , which is then going to be followed by a multi-day squeeze to punish some stubborn bears getting involved. After that, catching the short ain't gonna be easy and there will be all kinds of games being played by different market participants. But at the end I am expecting us to bottom near the /ES 3000 level . Good luck! Tonis
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by neilzo
10
SPY - Main s/r zones analysisHello traders, Description of the analysis: SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST ( SPY ) support zones ideal for timing long positions (gray). A possible correction could provide a shopping opportunity in interesting volume zones. It is definitely worth following further developments. The thickness of the support zone reflects the importance of this zone. Red lines are fair prices by volume. Please be careful during the election campaign and election. There can be higher volatility. I personally stand outside the markets with new positions. About me: Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (over $4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades. Jacob
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jacob_Kovarik
It's time to bring some real volatility to markets - ES to 3000Hello! Right off the bat, I'm gonna mention that the market has changed during the last few weeks. All the retail and hedge fund crowd have suddenly started to buy into the rally, which they couldn't do for the past 6 months. Also I hope ya'll have seen the P/C ratios and volumes that have gone absolutely bonkers and made new records never seen before day after day. It is time to crush the call buyers speculation and bring some real volatility to markets. I'm not bullish until we have at least got a bigger correction to around ES 3000 level and washed the retail crowd (speculators) out . That's all. *turn date 23/11/* - All the options gamma getting rolled over by the dealers likely have positive effect on the markets rally into year's end/Christmas. If there's weakness into this date it's likely gonna get gobbled up in the next few days and squeeze all the shorts and make people on the sidelines chase! Good luck! Tonis
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by neilzo
SPY Bearish -Election uncertainty + COVID. Target 330Following a similar trend as September 1st week. SPY will retrace back after bullish momentum and Gap up’s last week. The Gap up was caused due to expectations for a Stimulus package in the works. SPY is forming a Cup and a handle which is a bit of a head scratcher. Which is generally a bullish trend. But looking at CCI and SMS curving downwards. I believe SPY will retrace back to the SEP 11 Lows as profit taking to continue and more institution moving towards cash accumulation due to election uncertainty. Estimated Target for next week. SPY $330.82 (-4.5%)* - (Oct 23rd 2020) News that is adding to the bearish trend Election Uncertainty. No Stimulus Package. Europe Shutdown. Election Tampering. News that could reverse the bearish trend are Any Stimulus News. Vaccine Announcements. I will try to post weekly SPY targets. Let me know if you have any questions. Comment below if you agree or disagree. I would like to also know what your target is for SPY ending this week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by marketaction_live
4
15/10/2020 #SPX #ES_F sell!Just re-posting this as my original post 12 hours back is hidden for including my Twitter handle! oops I trade by identifying spot on daily turning point levels everyday for many instruments, including #SPX. Set price levels near these levels and trade when opportunity comes. New to #tradingview. Will be providing my intraday levels for some of the instruments here on a daily basis, as I have done for some followers on twitter. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #SPX #ES_F is over-extended. Yesterday's down move signals more down move to come. #NASDAQ $QQQ correction is clearer, and it should bring #SPX $SPY along with it. Bias is down below 3500, targeting 3454. Break of 3448 will bring 3420, which should cap low of day - low risk long level. Go long only above 3500, targeting 3520. 3535 will cap high of day - low risk short level. Comment: Slight correction to the above. 3420 is a near term support. 3382.8 should be the cap of the lows instead. Comment: 3454 (3448.5 in fact) hit and level holding for now. We might have a minor pullback now before further down. Comment: 3448-3454 level holding and oversold. Better to re-short at higher price. Look for short entries at 3470 Comment: 3470 perfect entry. 7pts down move on 1 pt MAE
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by FadeMeIfYouCan
SPY: Elliott and NeO Wave Forecast (memento)Dear friends, The bag of market forecasting has torn and in given the situation, there is nothing to be surprised about it. At least, in the next half of the year, the Covid-19 again shuffles and deals cards and it's up to us as well as with bad cards we can play a good round. I am deliberately talking about round because blackjack is still not yet over (Are you scared about ending?). The presented forecast is based on Elliot Wave Principle and NOeWave Theory on SPY. Recently, there have been published many different counts, but which one is the right one? Good question, right? Because the Indexes can be considered as a kind of market averaging, both theory without doubts should be applicable with relatively high accuracy. I also published several ideas of wave counting to forecast market behavior during the Covid-19 crises (exclusively to short), but I must also admit, that so many possibilities make me restless and I'm trying to calm down my conscience and direct my certitude in the right direction. The main difference between the previous one and the presented forecast lies in the application of the NEoWave rules that can be taken as Elliott Wave extension. The counting and situation are in more detail shown in related graphs. In the black rectangle, there are two options of Fibonacci ratios of price changes in percent for the CYCLE degree (black curve), where the second option seems to be very close to 2.618 and the depicted counted reflect just this situation. The traditional Fibonacci extension in lin and log scale doesn't exhibit meaningful agreement, however, refer to the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter, the ratios of price changes expressed in percent have higher informative value compared to the classical approach based on absolute prices. The red-bordered rectangle shows Fibonacci ratios for SUPER CYCLE degree. However, because the end of the 3rd wave in this degree is not yet known, the corresponding ratio also remains unknown (second line in the rectangle). In terms of basic Elliott theory, the expanding triangle in the 4th correction wave is very likely. More specifically, we are currently in the situation of the last phase of correction, i.e. E wave, that according to the NOeWave rule of Self Definition, cannot take more than 519 days in the worst case. I must note, that the presented specific counting be aware of the NOeWave rule of Logic corresponding to the Running Flat correction, which precedes the elongated 3rd waves (green remarks). Additionally, I have not observed (at the presented degree of counting) any violation of NOeWave rule of Self Definition. The last thing that I would like to mention is Regular Flat in 2nd correction wave of SUPER CYCLE degree (bloody red color) that according to the NEoWave rule of Logic should not precede the steep impulse corresponding to the 3rd wave. Therefore the scary memento arises: What if the 1st wave is actually part of the 3rd wave and the 2nd wave is actually the 4th wave? That makes sense in both theories and additionally, we are not the owner of completed market data. So how can we know where the starting point of the 1st wave really is? Market and trading itself started very, very long ago and it's hard to say where we are in fact in terms of the absolute position of wave counting theory. However, if we accept this possibility, after the end of SUPER CYCLE, the casino-market will close and the blackjack is over. It will be a long night and when one wakes up the casino will open again with the entry price of 100-150$/per share? "Ladies and gentlemen, please come in and enjoy the new game of blackjack" If you like this idea please leave a comment.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kovinko