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TRICK OR TREAT - CORRECTION PLAYBOOKHello! I hope many of you have been prepared for a pull in the indexes. The whole move lower right now is fueled by the fact that nobody owns protection into November, which is crazy considering there are elections coming, and now suddenly all the fund managers and retail crowd are slowly starting to realize it. The correction is very much needed to let some air out of the overblown equities market. I am expecting a pull below /ES 3200 level , which is then going to be followed by a multi-day squeeze to punish some stubborn bears getting involved. After that, catching the short ain't gonna be easy and there will be all kinds of games being played by different market participants. But at the end I am expecting us to bottom near the /ES 3000 level . Good luck! Tonis
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by neilzo
10
SPY - Main s/r zones analysisHello traders, Description of the analysis: SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST ( SPY ) support zones ideal for timing long positions (gray). A possible correction could provide a shopping opportunity in interesting volume zones. It is definitely worth following further developments. The thickness of the support zone reflects the importance of this zone. Red lines are fair prices by volume. Please be careful during the election campaign and election. There can be higher volatility. I personally stand outside the markets with new positions. About me: Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (over $4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades. Jacob
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jacob_Kovarik
It's time to bring some real volatility to markets - ES to 3000Hello! Right off the bat, I'm gonna mention that the market has changed during the last few weeks. All the retail and hedge fund crowd have suddenly started to buy into the rally, which they couldn't do for the past 6 months. Also I hope ya'll have seen the P/C ratios and volumes that have gone absolutely bonkers and made new records never seen before day after day. It is time to crush the call buyers speculation and bring some real volatility to markets. I'm not bullish until we have at least got a bigger correction to around ES 3000 level and washed the retail crowd (speculators) out . That's all. *turn date 23/11/* - All the options gamma getting rolled over by the dealers likely have positive effect on the markets rally into year's end/Christmas. If there's weakness into this date it's likely gonna get gobbled up in the next few days and squeeze all the shorts and make people on the sidelines chase! Good luck! Tonis
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by neilzo
SPY Bearish -Election uncertainty + COVID. Target 330Following a similar trend as September 1st week. SPY will retrace back after bullish momentum and Gap up’s last week. The Gap up was caused due to expectations for a Stimulus package in the works. SPY is forming a Cup and a handle which is a bit of a head scratcher. Which is generally a bullish trend. But looking at CCI and SMS curving downwards. I believe SPY will retrace back to the SEP 11 Lows as profit taking to continue and more institution moving towards cash accumulation due to election uncertainty. Estimated Target for next week. SPY $330.82 (-4.5%)* - (Oct 23rd 2020) News that is adding to the bearish trend Election Uncertainty. No Stimulus Package. Europe Shutdown. Election Tampering. News that could reverse the bearish trend are Any Stimulus News. Vaccine Announcements. I will try to post weekly SPY targets. Let me know if you have any questions. Comment below if you agree or disagree. I would like to also know what your target is for SPY ending this week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by marketaction_live
4
15/10/2020 #SPX #ES_F sell!Just re-posting this as my original post 12 hours back is hidden for including my Twitter handle! oops I trade by identifying spot on daily turning point levels everyday for many instruments, including #SPX. Set price levels near these levels and trade when opportunity comes. New to #tradingview. Will be providing my intraday levels for some of the instruments here on a daily basis, as I have done for some followers on twitter. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #SPX #ES_F is over-extended. Yesterday's down move signals more down move to come. #NASDAQ $QQQ correction is clearer, and it should bring #SPX $SPY along with it. Bias is down below 3500, targeting 3454. Break of 3448 will bring 3420, which should cap low of day - low risk long level. Go long only above 3500, targeting 3520. 3535 will cap high of day - low risk short level. Comment: Slight correction to the above. 3420 is a near term support. 3382.8 should be the cap of the lows instead. Comment: 3454 (3448.5 in fact) hit and level holding for now. We might have a minor pullback now before further down. Comment: 3448-3454 level holding and oversold. Better to re-short at higher price. Look for short entries at 3470 Comment: 3470 perfect entry. 7pts down move on 1 pt MAE
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by FadeMeIfYouCan
SPY: Elliott and NeO Wave Forecast (memento)Dear friends, The bag of market forecasting has torn and in given the situation, there is nothing to be surprised about it. At least, in the next half of the year, the Covid-19 again shuffles and deals cards and it's up to us as well as with bad cards we can play a good round. I am deliberately talking about round because blackjack is still not yet over (Are you scared about ending?). The presented forecast is based on Elliot Wave Principle and NOeWave Theory on SPY. Recently, there have been published many different counts, but which one is the right one? Good question, right? Because the Indexes can be considered as a kind of market averaging, both theory without doubts should be applicable with relatively high accuracy. I also published several ideas of wave counting to forecast market behavior during the Covid-19 crises (exclusively to short), but I must also admit, that so many possibilities make me restless and I'm trying to calm down my conscience and direct my certitude in the right direction. The main difference between the previous one and the presented forecast lies in the application of the NEoWave rules that can be taken as Elliott Wave extension. The counting and situation are in more detail shown in related graphs. In the black rectangle, there are two options of Fibonacci ratios of price changes in percent for the CYCLE degree (black curve), where the second option seems to be very close to 2.618 and the depicted counted reflect just this situation. The traditional Fibonacci extension in lin and log scale doesn't exhibit meaningful agreement, however, refer to the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter, the ratios of price changes expressed in percent have higher informative value compared to the classical approach based on absolute prices. The red-bordered rectangle shows Fibonacci ratios for SUPER CYCLE degree. However, because the end of the 3rd wave in this degree is not yet known, the corresponding ratio also remains unknown (second line in the rectangle). In terms of basic Elliott theory, the expanding triangle in the 4th correction wave is very likely. More specifically, we are currently in the situation of the last phase of correction, i.e. E wave, that according to the NOeWave rule of Self Definition, cannot take more than 519 days in the worst case. I must note, that the presented specific counting be aware of the NOeWave rule of Logic corresponding to the Running Flat correction, which precedes the elongated 3rd waves (green remarks). Additionally, I have not observed (at the presented degree of counting) any violation of NOeWave rule of Self Definition. The last thing that I would like to mention is Regular Flat in 2nd correction wave of SUPER CYCLE degree (bloody red color) that according to the NEoWave rule of Logic should not precede the steep impulse corresponding to the 3rd wave. Therefore the scary memento arises: What if the 1st wave is actually part of the 3rd wave and the 2nd wave is actually the 4th wave? That makes sense in both theories and additionally, we are not the owner of completed market data. So how can we know where the starting point of the 1st wave really is? Market and trading itself started very, very long ago and it's hard to say where we are in fact in terms of the absolute position of wave counting theory. However, if we accept this possibility, after the end of SUPER CYCLE, the casino-market will close and the blackjack is over. It will be a long night and when one wakes up the casino will open again with the entry price of 100-150$/per share? "Ladies and gentlemen, please come in and enjoy the new game of blackjack" If you like this idea please leave a comment.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kovinko
Rocky Roads Ahead for SPXFor every one that wants a quick analysis. Basically, SPX is going to be bouncing in this 3400-3205 range for a little while. I believe that we are entering into a consolidation period before a big move. To early to tell which way it is going to go. For everyone that wants a more detailed analysis here it is. SPX broke through its major support line, the grey line on the graph, which then made the pink line the new support. However, it broke through that new support which created a nice price channel, represented in purple, which was somewhat quickly broken through. The break through was very bullish. As seen it was a big gap up and closed very green. However, since then it has been fighting the new support, now resistance, and the 50 MA. On top of that we also have a strong resistance area at 3400. Now today we tested getting over that pink line resistance, the 50 MA, and almost tested 3400 but it failed. This in my opinion is not a great sign. I'd put my money on a pretty bearish day tomorrow. We are going to stay in this new horizontal price channel, represented by green, for possibly up to a few weeks if there is no clean break out soon. I'd expect it to be very consolidated unless some miraculous news comes out. If you are trading keeps those stop losses tight. Happy trading
TVC:SPX
by Absolute_Degen
Don't Be So Quick To Buy Just Yet...The SPY seemingly had an upward break through it's bearish trajectory if we look at recent price action. Some may take this as a buy signal, but I still see reasons to be short... 1. We're barely above the 50d EMA. The 50d EMA is acting as resistance right now. 2. We spent a long time testing the 100d EMA. It was acting as strong support and we tested it three times before getting the recent "bullish" action. If we test it again, it's likely we'll break through the 100d EMA to the downside. 3. On my chart, I have the 21d EMA up. It is well-known in technical trading that price action will be attracted to the 21d EMA. In fact, it acts as a magnet and is almost always touched in pullbacks. Because of this, I don't think we've broken the bearish trending pattern yet... This is more likely than not just a slight pullback to the 21d EMA because as we can see, price action is literally on top of the 21d EMA. It's consolidating here and giving more power for more trendy bearish price action. Then, finally we can break the 100d EMA to the downside. 4. Because we're touching the 21d EMA and we're on a bearish trajectory, lots of investors will seek to sell their long positions here and buy short positions (because that's what many technical traders do at the 21d EMA). My guess is that we'll continue to see bearish patterns. NOTE: If we break above $345 for the SPY, I'll officially consider it "Neutral"
AMEX:SPYShort
by trufeats