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Spyshort

15/10/2020 #SPX #ES_F sell!Just re-posting this as my original post 12 hours back is hidden for including my Twitter handle! oops I trade by identifying spot on daily turning point levels everyday for many instruments, including #SPX. Set price levels near these levels and trade when opportunity comes. New to #tradingview. Will be providing my intraday levels for some of the instruments here on a daily basis, as I have done for some followers on twitter. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #SPX #ES_F is over-extended. Yesterday's down move signals more down move to come. #NASDAQ $QQQ correction is clearer, and it should bring #SPX $SPY along with it. Bias is down below 3500, targeting 3454. Break of 3448 will bring 3420, which should cap low of day - low risk long level. Go long only above 3500, targeting 3520. 3535 will cap high of day - low risk short level. Comment: Slight correction to the above. 3420 is a near term support. 3382.8 should be the cap of the lows instead. Comment: 3454 (3448.5 in fact) hit and level holding for now. We might have a minor pullback now before further down. Comment: 3448-3454 level holding and oversold. Better to re-short at higher price. Look for short entries at 3470 Comment: 3470 perfect entry. 7pts down move on 1 pt MAE
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by FadeMeIfYouCan
SPY: Elliott and NeO Wave Forecast (memento)Dear friends, The bag of market forecasting has torn and in given the situation, there is nothing to be surprised about it. At least, in the next half of the year, the Covid-19 again shuffles and deals cards and it's up to us as well as with bad cards we can play a good round. I am deliberately talking about round because blackjack is still not yet over (Are you scared about ending?). The presented forecast is based on Elliot Wave Principle and NOeWave Theory on SPY. Recently, there have been published many different counts, but which one is the right one? Good question, right? Because the Indexes can be considered as a kind of market averaging, both theory without doubts should be applicable with relatively high accuracy. I also published several ideas of wave counting to forecast market behavior during the Covid-19 crises (exclusively to short), but I must also admit, that so many possibilities make me restless and I'm trying to calm down my conscience and direct my certitude in the right direction. The main difference between the previous one and the presented forecast lies in the application of the NEoWave rules that can be taken as Elliott Wave extension. The counting and situation are in more detail shown in related graphs. In the black rectangle, there are two options of Fibonacci ratios of price changes in percent for the CYCLE degree (black curve), where the second option seems to be very close to 2.618 and the depicted counted reflect just this situation. The traditional Fibonacci extension in lin and log scale doesn't exhibit meaningful agreement, however, refer to the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter, the ratios of price changes expressed in percent have higher informative value compared to the classical approach based on absolute prices. The red-bordered rectangle shows Fibonacci ratios for SUPER CYCLE degree. However, because the end of the 3rd wave in this degree is not yet known, the corresponding ratio also remains unknown (second line in the rectangle). In terms of basic Elliott theory, the expanding triangle in the 4th correction wave is very likely. More specifically, we are currently in the situation of the last phase of correction, i.e. E wave, that according to the NOeWave rule of Self Definition, cannot take more than 519 days in the worst case. I must note, that the presented specific counting be aware of the NOeWave rule of Logic corresponding to the Running Flat correction, which precedes the elongated 3rd waves (green remarks). Additionally, I have not observed (at the presented degree of counting) any violation of NOeWave rule of Self Definition. The last thing that I would like to mention is Regular Flat in 2nd correction wave of SUPER CYCLE degree (bloody red color) that according to the NEoWave rule of Logic should not precede the steep impulse corresponding to the 3rd wave. Therefore the scary memento arises: What if the 1st wave is actually part of the 3rd wave and the 2nd wave is actually the 4th wave? That makes sense in both theories and additionally, we are not the owner of completed market data. So how can we know where the starting point of the 1st wave really is? Market and trading itself started very, very long ago and it's hard to say where we are in fact in terms of the absolute position of wave counting theory. However, if we accept this possibility, after the end of SUPER CYCLE, the casino-market will close and the blackjack is over. It will be a long night and when one wakes up the casino will open again with the entry price of 100-150$/per share? "Ladies and gentlemen, please come in and enjoy the new game of blackjack" If you like this idea please leave a comment.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kovinko
Rocky Roads Ahead for SPXFor every one that wants a quick analysis. Basically, SPX is going to be bouncing in this 3400-3205 range for a little while. I believe that we are entering into a consolidation period before a big move. To early to tell which way it is going to go. For everyone that wants a more detailed analysis here it is. SPX broke through its major support line, the grey line on the graph, which then made the pink line the new support. However, it broke through that new support which created a nice price channel, represented in purple, which was somewhat quickly broken through. The break through was very bullish. As seen it was a big gap up and closed very green. However, since then it has been fighting the new support, now resistance, and the 50 MA. On top of that we also have a strong resistance area at 3400. Now today we tested getting over that pink line resistance, the 50 MA, and almost tested 3400 but it failed. This in my opinion is not a great sign. I'd put my money on a pretty bearish day tomorrow. We are going to stay in this new horizontal price channel, represented by green, for possibly up to a few weeks if there is no clean break out soon. I'd expect it to be very consolidated unless some miraculous news comes out. If you are trading keeps those stop losses tight. Happy trading
TVC:SPX
by Absolute_Degen
Don't Be So Quick To Buy Just Yet...The SPY seemingly had an upward break through it's bearish trajectory if we look at recent price action. Some may take this as a buy signal, but I still see reasons to be short... 1. We're barely above the 50d EMA. The 50d EMA is acting as resistance right now. 2. We spent a long time testing the 100d EMA. It was acting as strong support and we tested it three times before getting the recent "bullish" action. If we test it again, it's likely we'll break through the 100d EMA to the downside. 3. On my chart, I have the 21d EMA up. It is well-known in technical trading that price action will be attracted to the 21d EMA. In fact, it acts as a magnet and is almost always touched in pullbacks. Because of this, I don't think we've broken the bearish trending pattern yet... This is more likely than not just a slight pullback to the 21d EMA because as we can see, price action is literally on top of the 21d EMA. It's consolidating here and giving more power for more trendy bearish price action. Then, finally we can break the 100d EMA to the downside. 4. Because we're touching the 21d EMA and we're on a bearish trajectory, lots of investors will seek to sell their long positions here and buy short positions (because that's what many technical traders do at the 21d EMA). My guess is that we'll continue to see bearish patterns. NOTE: If we break above $345 for the SPY, I'll officially consider it "Neutral"
AMEX:SPYShort
by trufeats
SPY Strong Support... But Still BearishThe SPY flew below the 50d Exponential Moving Average with ease, but now it's hitting major support at the 100d Exponential Moving Average. On the 21st of September, we hit it and it was rejected. On the 23rd of September, the day closed on top of it. On the 24th of September, the market fell below it but the market closed slightly above it. Today, September 25th, the market opened on top of it and had an extremely green day rising way above it. I'm still leaning on the short side. We're still bearish as we haven't broken the bearish pattern yet (take a look at the white angular line and the pitchforks). If we break above these, I wouldn't say we're bullish or bearish... it would be a wait and see scenario. If the market falls below the 100d Exponential Moving Average (and stays down there), we'll be in extremely bearish territory.
AMEX:SPYShort
by trufeats
S&P 500/SPY Move down to continue!$SPY / $SPX Today's price perfectly bounced from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels. $ES_F S&P futures are hovering around a moderate resistance level of the 15 EMA and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level which is around $3300. It's important to note we're still in a downtrend for the past almost 3 weeks. The price has constantly been rejected at the 15 EMA, 50 MA and Fibonacci levels. Thus, I expect the pattern to hold and expect to see a downward movement soon to around ~$3122 levels. If we see a break of $3300 I'd expect to see a price of $3350 and possibly $3400 to trade. Please share your thoughts. I love to learn and have a healthy discussion!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by saransound
9/23 UPDATED BEAR THESIS $316-317 next stopKey points The DXY may bounce on resistance as shown Oil may bounce on support as shown Bonds remain unchanged as shown Need to gauge Asia's reaction from our sell off today for confirmation on tomorrows trade For those that don't understand intermarket relationships. From left to right and can start at any point. Currency ------> commodities -----------> bonds -----------> Equity -------> currency --------> commodities ---------> bonds -----------> equity. Huge markets reacting to one another, all interconnected, all correlated globally. Given the circumstances, Spy is sitting in no-mans land right now with a straight shot to 316-317, but given that the DXY and OIL is looking to bounce off support/resistance means its bullish for SPY(meaning a relief bounce is probable, but will only be able to tell at tomorrows open, we need to see how asian markets will react to our sell off today) The Dollar had a textbook breakout to the upside. When the Dollar rises, equity falls.(not all the time). When Oil loses value ----> spy loses value) My chart merely shows that OIL is near a support line and that Dollar is near a resistance = Probability of Spy having a relief bounce. The Risk vs reward is still heavily favored to the bears.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
Short/medium term Bearish thesisSeptember 28th Resistance/support will intersect and we will see downwards movement into new territory. The risk vs reward for shorting is much greater than going long at the moment. Short term Bearish/neutral Medium term Bearish Long term Bullish I believe we are setting up another Jan 2018 OR OCT 2018. Red arrows indicating heavy resistance Red Arrows resistance Blue diagnal line - current downwards trend White line- Major resistance Red line - resistance Orange line - weaker resistance Green line - March - september bullish trend. Green line intersects with white line on a catalyst day (fed speaking). We are now in a trend reversal, but need to keep an eye on these levels.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
3
My General view of SPY In my philosophical view, humans tend to always need an "answer" for everything in life. Historically we created gods to explain the unexplainable. That's not to say that i am an atheist in my religious view, nor am i trying to make this a religious discussion, I'm purely commenting on human nature. We are a curious species and we learned to not take "no" or "i don't know" as an answer from a very early age of our ancestry. If you look around you, it feels we "must" have an answer for everything in life, including the unexplainable (consciousness). Scientific people call it "coincidence", religious people call it a "miracle from god". To advance in our life we need to see these two groups of people from a third persons perspective, and understand both sides. It doesn't always have to be black or white, right or wrong. It's okay "not to know", as long as you are the path to enlightenment through spiritual or scientific, that's all that matters. I am only a man, born into this world trying to make sense of something insensible for my time. So why is my philosophical view important in the way that I trade? I see many traders nowadays pointing to the news as an "answer" for their directional bias in the markets. Trump said this, trump said that, markets go up, markets go down. The media business sells you the answers, and you buy them because its encoded in our ancestral genes to buy them. To reach a new level of consciousness, you would need to understand the words. " I am only a man, and too stupid of a species to understand anything but." We are a mere spec in the timeline of "(life?)". My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical analysis standpoint (sometimes with the exception of federal news.) Before trying to understand the way that i trade, you would need to understand my philosophical standpoint, and to also assume that nowadays, there is a gap between the real economy and the stock market. The stock market ≠(does not equal) the economy. You would also need to understand the options market and that algorithms created by market makers are always trying to stay delta neutral hedging their positions. And finally the last thing you must understand is intermarket analysis to fully understand my trading view. So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinionated rational/irrational decision to sell or buy. Do I know the formula? No I don't, and that's okay. What i do know, is the results of the formula at work. Sometimes its easy to spot when live trading, sometimes it can only be spot with hindsight bias, sometimes the answer is never found, AND THATS O.K. For example, i don't see where or why "2+2" is happening, but i keep seeing "4" as the answer. So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinion based rational/irrational decision to sell or buy. TL;DR We are not trading based off psychology any longer, we are trading based off logic. (algorithms & formulas) My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical standpoint (with the exception of federal news.) AMEX:SPY Multiple resistances/support areas for the S&P. We have always respected the white resistance since the 2008 financial crisis. The solid green line in the middle is what i consider the "goldilocks" zone. A habitable zone in which "fair price" has been achieved in the context of the uptrend we are seeing since the 2008 financial crisis. In conclusion, to not make my first post too long i will write some pointers in how i trade. I trade Spx products vs volatility I trade Spx products vs forex I trade Spx products vs bonds I trade Spx products vs commodities I trade Spx products logically ( I heavily disagree with EWT methodology) I trade Spx products using intermarket relationships I use historical resistance/supports in all markets to gauge activity in what i'm trading. As time goes on i will post many charts of what i wrote above, and too make things less confusing i will explain as i go.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Noxiouss
4
RSP's Head & ShouldersClearly bearish as we broke through the head & shoulder pattern's neckline. Likely to consolidate slightly around $105-$107 before heading lower. Currently finding support around the 100d-EMA right now, but imo, likely to head lower over the coming weeks. You can also see a "double top" pattern when you look at my top-most yellow rectangle. Each yellow rectangle represents likely support/resistance zones. If I had to guess, I'd say we're bearish until the end of October or mid-November. Keep in mind, the RSP is an equal weighted ETF of the S&P500 index. This means that, imo, the RSP gives a much clearer picture of how businesses (and the stock market as a whole) are doing. However, I don't believe technical analysis of the RSP (in terms of making buy/sell decisions based purely off of indicators) is extremely accurate. I don't believe it is because most people are looking at the SPY for their technical analysis to make buying/selling decisions. When technical analysis is correct, it is my personal belief that it is because of the self-fulfilling prophecy that many other people see the same thing and are making the same decisions at the same time. Thus, the SPY is better for deciding short-term buy/sell decisions. I think the RSP gives a broader, clearer long-term picture of market direction which should be used as a tool in tandem with the SPY and your own strategy.
AMEX:RSPShort
by trufeats
$SPY INDEX TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN | OCT 2020Friday was the quarterly event known as quadruple witching where S&P 500 (SPY - Get Rating) futures, options on those futures, options on individual equities, and single stock futures all expire. In the past, these ‘witching’ days have been characterized by above-average trading volume and increased volatility. But, in the current environment, those are relative terms as both have been elevated for the past few months. Still, expect some wild gyrations, especially as we head into the close today, which could carry over into Monday’s opening as positions get squared away, hedges get established and positions are rebalanced. Data suggests that there are some 90 million options contracts likely to settle in-the-money and approximately $32 billion in index rebalancing, which needs to occur. ~ SPY currently sits above what has proven to be strong support @ $327 which could offer as a decent entry point considering our next support is at $324. Possible long on a break and hold of resistance @ $332. Upside targets: $340, $344, $347 Possible Short Entry pn break and hold below $327 Patience will pay, be very patience with these levels. DotcomJack | Michael Jordan of Stonks
AMEX:SPY
by DotcomJack