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SPX heading down to 2000..On today's close, the uptrend that began in April is now over based on the intermediate term EMA cross. There are several factors which I would conclude are ripe for a major decline in the S&P 500 of which include: - Upcoming election in the US - Global economy mired in recession/depression - Massive overvaluation - Poor internals - A few select stocks (FANG) leading the capitalization weightings - Overall bearish seasonality We will be taking short -5x ES contracts (-1x SP CME) on Sunday evening. Target is 2000 on the SPX with a slight possibility of a major reset down to 1550-1650 range if the panic is strong enough. VIX 100+ is possible during this timeframe. Buckle up and get ready. USD cash will be the strongest asset. All else (gold, bitcoin, commodities, etc.) are going to get hit BADLY...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by kaotic363
2
SPY| Bearish PA| Weekly S/R| Bearish Divergence|.618 Fibonacci Evening Traders, Today’s analysis – SPY – possible blow of top with further downside probable, following technical points to consider. - Bearish PA (swing high) - Valid bearish divergence - Weekly S/R support - .618 Confluence (200 DMA&DEMA) - Increasing volume SPY’s immediate price action at swing high is bearish; a large wick on a weekly candle usually marks a temporary top, this allows us to have a bearish bias on the market. Weekly S/R is the next logical support; price action is likely to have a reaction. Breaking this level will be very bearish. Price will then have a higher probability of testing the .618 Fibonacci in confluence with the 200 DMA&DEMA. Spy currently has a bearish divergence on the weekly; this is an indication of weakness in the market, thus further downside likely. There is also increasing volume after absorption, indicating sellers are stepping in pushing current volume node above average. Overall, in my opinion, the SPY is likely to correct further with weekly S/R immediate target. Any short positions are to be risk defined. Price action is to be used upon management/ discretion of trade. Hope this analysis helps! Thank you for following my work! And remember, “Win, loss whatever emerges in the short-term, place and manage your next trades untouched, unattached... always keeping your eyes on the long-term picture.” ― Yvan Byeajee
AMEX:SPYShort
by AzizKhanZamani
1
Somebody is hammering the close on SPX and price is dumpingLook at the 3 minute chart below because Tradingview doesn't accept posts with a timeframe less than 15 minutes. It is apparent that people have started to sell the close and there is not enough buying activity at the open or over the course of the day to keep the price up. A lot of traders appear to be exiting their positions at the last 3 minutes of the day. The volume SMA is set to the default of 20, so it when our closing volume of the day is 4.5 or more higher than the last 20 periods and the last hour is the busiest of trading it seems that smart money is selling into whatever strength it can find. On the 15 minute chart the volume for the last candle easily reaches 10x the last 20 periods To zoom out even further to a dialy chart we see a bearishly engulfing candle that put price action back to where we were a month ago and the On balance Volume is below both the 10 and 20 EMAs. This occurs with the Multiple Time Frame Volatility Stop has flipped to bearish. this is generally a bad situation for the bulls. I put risk on with SPXU on 9/3 and I intend to hold that till I see SPY out of the monthly bollinger band. If i see the MTF Vstop flip on me first I will re-evaluate.
AMEX:SPYShort
by This_Guhy
2
One week left for bears before moonshotEven though the downturn started a few days later than planned, it still met the expected drop. Wave A could have occurred until the end of trading on Friday, but it may have ended Friday morning at 1030. The red down arrows and one green up arrow are based on Intermediate Wave 3 lasting 46 days and with its move extending beyond Intermediate Wave 1's movement by 134.09%. These arrows are a rough projection of movement. There length may not line up perfectly but points moved are typically much more accurate. There are two possible tracks for the week. Option 1: Wave A may be in the early stages and have only completed wave 2 of wave A. This would drive the index down drastically at some point this week, before a bounce up and then more downward movement possibly with a bottom next week. A significant upward wave B would need to occur before the end of next week and then another week or too of significant drops until wave C finds its bottom. THIS COURSE IS UNLIKELY. I assess the next one to be most likely. Option 2: Wave A did in fact complete itself at 1030 Friday. This would mean it lasted roughly 18 30-minute bars instead of the projected 29. The projected top to bottom movement of Wave A was 246.25 versus the actual of 238.48. Wave B's projected move was 145.44 over 20 30-minute bars. With wave B's likely end, it only lasted 9 bars and climbed 105.51. Based on my analysis, B waves typically last around 75% the length of their wave As. This B wave would be half of that, which is not abnormal, but could mean wave B moves a little higher over the first 2 hours of trading on Tuesday. Wave C was initially projected to drop 223.11 over 33 bars. Wave C can still do this, especially if wave B moves up toward 3487 early on Tuesday. If wave B does not find a new top by 1130 Tuesday, wave C could be in full force. With wave B starting early by 22 30-minute bars, wave C could end early by 22 bars or more. The earliest end for wave C is 1030 Thursday. If wave B continues for a few more bars, wave C should find a solid bottom before 1430 Friday. It might be a little odd to sell during the course of a week, albeit it a shortened week, just to come off the bottom for the final 90 minutes of the week. A more likely action would be wave C's bottom earlier in the day Friday or the following Monday. Long-term projection is still on track for a rise to new all-time highs before mid-October, followed by 700-800 point decline through Mach 2021, and a massive rise to new all-time highs again before finally crashing in early 2022. We will see what happens. Keep checking back as we track this wild ride to the end in early 2022.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
8
Advance Decline Line did great job. What is next?Last week was hot for stock traders. As we discussed SP500 rallied a bit higher and was rejected. The Advance Decline Line did its job perfectly. I think the market can retest 3500 or higher and if rejected, we can sell for 3200. We still can see a big rally this year. Cycles and Fed Funds forecast indicate the beginning of an uptrend at the end of September. Besides, the stock market is usually strong before Elections. But for now, let's focus on very short-term trades.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
SPY - Short: A Market Correction Could Be Coming in Sep 2020Base on Renko candle chart, we easier realize an ABC Correction Wave are forming after Elliott Uptrend Waves completed. This correction should stop at $315 - $320, right the top of 3rd Elliott Wave. That is important Demand Zone. If a big Panic Sell happen, it easy to take SPY down to $295 - $300. To break this downtrend, SPY needs to close above $352 for at least 2 candles of D1. This scenario, in my opinion is only about 15% likely to happen. Sit on hands and watch the trend. Disclaimer. P/s. I hope I'm wrong.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PhanTichStock_com
1
SPY AnalysisPrice has been on a long bull run so its about time for a pullback. Price made a big move to the downside but is still in an overall uptrend. Although I know price is still in an uptrend I am looking to go short on SPY if it pulls up into my sell zone before reaching one of my buy zones. I am also not going to just buy SPY at those zones just because price comes into them. I will wait for price to show strong signs of a continuation in the uptrend. Hope this helps you in the coming weeks! Don't forget to like and follow!
AMEX:SPY
by DNiceChampion
SPY Short: Expanding TriangleLooks like we have a distinct expanding triangle pattern which started back in 2018. My guess is today's sell-off happened because trading programs noticed the price yesterday breached the expanding triangle's resistance line. I would wait for further confirmation before trading based off of this pattern. Do I really think that the price will drop further down than the Coronavirus crash? At this point, I find that hard to believe. Based off of my technical analysis however, it's possible. Let's see what happens!
AMEX:SPYShort
by trufeats
4
S&P Topped Out? Longterm Outlook & StrategiesMonthly for long-term outlook and accuracy. Price is getting toppy and losing momentum. Price movement up while RSI losing momentum and showing bearish divergence usually resulted in massive dumps in the past. The 50EMA lining up perfectly with the bottom of the upward trending white channel is the make-or-break price level for me. Either a nice bounce from there or continuation to the downside if we break below. *Keep an eye on the USD. If it catches support on 100EMA and has a good bounce it could likely be a contributing factor to a dump in S&P. It's interesting to see how well the DXY has respected the 100EMA as both support and resistance. There is only about a week left in the monthly candle and a close here would increase the odds in a bounce (to at least the 50 or 21 EMAs).
SP:SPX
by thiluxan_s