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Spyshort

Down only from here on out. $SPY to bottom below $300I've been waiting for this moment for the past two years. Over the next week or so, I expect a high to be put in on the stock market at ~$441-$446, and then the market will be in down only mode for the next 6 months to a year. I don't take joy in seeing the market fall, but from a trading perspective these opportunities only happen once every 10-15 years and there's lots of money that can be made on the downside. Markets fall faster than they rise, and I think the next 6 months will be painful. So sharing this as a warning for those long-only investors (to take some profit or sit in cash) and as an opportunity for those that feel comfortable shorting. What would change my mind is a move above $446 and flipping that level as support. But otherwise, we will move down from here. Everyone expects rates to come down and thinks that will pump up the market, but I have the opposite view. I think rates will fall because they'll need to be cut after a market wide crisis. Technically, we've formed a monthly lower high already and we've been consolidating in a tight range, I think once we retest the highs, we'll confirm this last level as resistance and then the market will fall much faster than the last few months and faster than it did last year. I expect the bottom to be put in sometime between now and October of next year (2024) at $271. I've marked off key levels of support and resistance on the chart. In July I traded the top: But from here on out, I think the bottom drops out of the market. Hence why I'm sharing this now. Key dates on the chart June 17, July 1, Sep 23. Those are all pivot dates on the weekly timeframe where it's an important time to watch for price action. Good luck trading this next year.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
33
$SPY Weekly Price TargetsBased off Price Action, the next 2 weeks will determine if we will see new ATH or fill previous Order Blocks (OB). Currently, we are in an Uptrend with the continuation from Oct. 10th ~$360 Demand. We had a clean break through the OB created on the week of Aug. 22nd. Which lead us to fill the Apr. 4th OB. We could potentially see a continuation to ATH or a pullback to the $437 FVG with a reversal towards ATH. If we fail to break through the current OB or the previous ATH we could see a sell off leading to the closing of previous OB's on, Mar. 13th ~$386 & Oct. 10th ~360.
AMEX:SPY
by Kyle_Kinnaird
S&P Pull BackNew update. It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on: RSI overbought on 1W MACD Crossed on 1W Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN. Fuel prices are back near record highs Rent prices are back at record highs according to Redfin and Zillow Home Prices are heading higher according to Case Shiller Index Vehicle prices remain high, making a slight gain last month according to FRED and MUI Housing affordability is at a multi-decade low (1980s) With this data in mind, I can't imagine how the Fed will be able to hide this new inflation in future CPI/PPI reports. It's impossible. Just because their official report says inflation is falling, it doesn't make it a reality. The debt to savings ratio in America is about the worst on record, which means people are paying more for the same items they used to buy because prices are rising and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Some people believe unicorns are real, but that doesn't mean they're real. Markets have risen for the last 4 consecutive months without pause, and continually since Oct 2022 lows based on the idea that inflation is "easing" and that the Fed will reverse course. Higher interest rates are good, because it promotes savings with higher yields. It also promotes paying off debt and less leveraging by Americans. The problem with 0% interest is that it creates artificial spending growth, which in fact is nothing more than a bubble. We saw the mad rush to buy cars and homes in 2021 with people overpaying on over priced homes and cars. Now? They're starting to sweat, especially those who bought vehicles, because 2 years later, they still owe more than MSRP and dealers won't buy them for near MSRP. Home buying sentiment is the worst in 23 years according to CNBC (keep in mind, that's worse than 2008-09). Keep watching.. let's see how this farce of a market plays out. Who knows, they may continue to fudge numbers and markets may reverse and rally again, but everyone knows that prices everywhere are higher, so it matters not if the "official" numbers are low. You feel it at the pump, grocery store, and everywhere else. There was no easing. #SPX CBOE:SPX
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics
3
S&P 500 Preferred Short: Better Risk-RewardToday I want to discuss about the bull and bear cases for S&P and introduce the fractal concept Bull case: Cup with a handle uptrend can be considered 1-2-3 wave and recent downmove as 4th wave it is a possibility because wave 4 is in wave 1's terrority, similar to the big downtrend. But this can also be considered a leading diagonal downtrend sub-wave 5 ended on uptrend wave 1 Bear case: Fractal retracement % is very close both retracements reached peak of wave 2 of same degree Preferred Elliott Wave Counts Risk-reward is better on the short side now speed of upmove
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by sngyuchao
The Expected Bounce was on Queue. Tomorrow We Drop.Traders, We have been batting 1000 lately when it comes to the SPY. Might as well make another bold prediction. It would seem that the greatest probability of price action is outlined in the chart. An inverse H&S is forming and the right shoulder has yet to start. I predicted the target down from the last H&S pattern to be 410. That was hit, almost to the dollar. I then predicted a huge bounce. We have that now. In fact, 7 days of green candles! Amazing. I even predicted the timing of the bounce. The charts gave me all of this data. I just had to read it correctly. Now, the chart is telling me that it's time for a bit of a pause. If correct, we should see the right shoulder from that inverse H&S drawn now begin to form. If we're lucky we stay in my outlined green channel by using that 200 day ma near the bottom of the channel as support. Blowoff top underway! LFG! Stew
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
SPX500 ShortThe SPX is showing 4 variables that suggest the price will drop. In our trading strategy, when an asset that is showing 4 variables in the same direction, we take the trade. As always the SL is one that as of right now makes sense, we will update if something changes. The 4 edges (Variables) that suggest downside: 1. Confirmation of old channel as resistance. 2. Confirmation of 2021 high as resistance after price failed to return above it. 3. Bearish divergence on the MacD. 4. A bearish dark cloud cover/ piercing line candlestick formation (Confirmed with a negative close today). Not to mention the asset retraced 61.8% to its recent high from low putting it in the golden zone. We can never say an asset WILL go in a specific direction. We just look for scenarios where, based on researched methods, an asset has a higher probability of going in a direction. When multiple edges line up, we take the trade. This is one of those cases.
BLACKBULL:US500.FShort
by SynergyTradingSetups
2
$SPY Market top playing outAs I've mentioned in my previous analysis, I believe we're at a market top (Despite Tom Lee calling for new highs). There's nothing positive for markets looking forward, therefore I think markets will finally price in all of the raise hikes and the poor economy. I think we may see one more high, however, if we do, I believe it'll result in a rug pull. I think the FOMC meeting tomorrow will largely be bullish for markets, but then after that, Thursday, Friday or into early next week, we'll see the market reverse. I'm looking for the move to hit the targets laid out on the charts. $412, $397 or $393 as the bottom. With hindsight, I think the move will mark the top of the market and we'll continue much lower. Bear market continuation targets shared here. Let's see if it plays out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
4
SPY 2 Bearish Scenarios 1. Less Bearish Scenario We have a 1-2 1-2 with the impulse wave 3 down in progress or still to come. The difference between the 2 scenarios is the higher timeframe. In this less bearish scenario, this move down is part of the primary wave C in the correction that started Jan 22. Once is done a new cycle will begin. 2. Bearish scenario In the bearish scenario, this move down is part of the primary wave 3 and not wave C. We are still in the 1-2 1-2 waves down with minor wave 3 yet to come. All of these waves are part of the primary wave 3 in the correction that started on January 22. Are you berish? What other alternate scenarios do you see? Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purpose and does not serve as financial advice.
AMEX:SPYShort
by WavesInvesting
SPY Short Prediction - 10/15/2023Unqualified prediction: SPY looks to be rolling over on the 1hr with multiple historical zones of support and resistance overlapping in a concentrated range (specified in-chart.) This in a TA sense would indicate a potential fight between buyers and sellers for control of price action, but macroeconomic fundamentals and geopolitical concerns, as well as ER volatility make for turbulent waters with this amateur analyst biased towards the downside.
AMEX:SPYShort
by UseTheSchwartz
ES Bull Flagging into 4400ES Hourly Analysis - Bull Flagging into 4400 Price action was quite choppy today and was hard to read. When that happens, it's best to just step away and let price paint a picture for you over a period of time until the direction is clear. That is exactly what ES has started to do. On the 2-5 minute chart this looks like a mess, on the hourly, it's painted a beautiful picture. It is showing us that ES can not close 4400 and that any time it dips below, buyers keep stepping in. 4400 has become the battle field. We are basing/consolidating for a big move, which is expected due to this being a volatile week. While we are in a volatile week once earnings start to report, and with current world news, don't swing for the fences when entering trades. Keep it logical. Supports: 4400, 4390, 4375. Resistance: 4410, 4415, 4425.
CME_MINI:ESZ2023Long
by AmpedTrading
Time for Pain $SPYAMEX:SPY is now at its support on the Weekly Chart. This support, around the $420 level, is the last major support before we would reach the next target (Pink Box). The Pink Box is the Median Line of the Downwards facing Orange Pitchfork. Alan Andrew's states that 'price has an 80% chance of reaching the latest median line'. In order to achieve that 80% rule, and to create a double bottom, that point would be around the beginning of 2024 and the $350 price point. IF this scenario were to play out (Bonds are crashing as I type this up), then we would see about a ~15-20% Selloff.. And that is just to the median line. There is also a 35% chance that we go FURTHER beyond that median line (if achieved). Buckle up.
AMEX:SPYShort
by waveology