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$SPY Short 280 PutsSPY Market Breakdown - June 29th, 2020 Looking at the 2H here, SPY last week broke out of this upwards channel it was trending in for the last few months and is losing it's longterm support (green box) If we keep getting more and more 2nd wave corona news as well as fomo fear news in the american media, I can definitely see a $282 put on SPY 294 is the 1st level of support down now that will touch 286 is the top of the support zone that we've seen on 18th May a wild Futures gap upwards. Very real possibility, proceed with caution. Market makers are also ruthless. As always please do your own research, I am not a financial advisor.
AMEX:SPYShort
by kyer
10
Futures headed towards 290'sA. After the huge dip recovery we see $ES_F, holding 200MA on each dip. B. We see the MA's converging and $ES_F honouring the wedge real nice. C. Markets trending sidelines and no real strength left. D. Banking flushed after the news yesterday (fed-puts-restrictions-on-bank-dividends-after-test-finds-some-banks-could-be-stressed-in-pandemic) E. Major segments taking an hit , one after the other. F. Tech's holding the bullish trend. What can we expect? a. Break of 200MA and downtrend towards 61.8 (2939) b. Consolidation at 290's levels. c. Reclaim of 200MA before we see more flush.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Echelon1
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) Price for the futures has been consolidating above the previous high, from the current fall we experienced after the very tall COVID-19 rebound. A much needed pullback was needed considering we came off the bottom of March extremely fast. We are still in an overall uptrend, confirming that with price not falling below the $300 level with the pullback and staying above, with a fake-out towards the end of the fall. Overall a uptrend is still intact, this simply could mean a dip. Staying above the previous high with current fundamentals in tact; NY started phase 1 reopening, China said it would start to be the biggest buying in soybeans again (Trade Deal), higher consumer sentiment and spending gradually increasing along with jobs slowly coming back is all progress forward. The jobs number won't immediately go back to where they were quickly, that major factor has been priced into the market. I believe all funds and major players are aware they wont come back as fast but doesn't mean we aren't making positive growth. Currently the dollar is getting extremely hurt from this but is inversely related to the growth of the S&P. A ton of money was being pumped into the economy all over the world mostly in USD or debt that was formed to USD. The Euro of course has followed the exact path of the market and has been booming. All countries invest between each other within their respected Treasuries. Seeing the central banks are inside the Treasury, makes sense the banks are then in control of investments coming into the country and vice versa as we invest in other countries through bond offerings.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by hunnndini
HOLD THE PHONE... ES to 4000+ by November ???In short, I am no longer short. The recent additional QE measures and absurd position of the Fed to continue to expand it's balance sheet with no regard of the consequences tell me a few things. A. The fed and talking heads know that they have pretty much convinced THE HERD that blowing a bubble inside of a bubble is not only logical, it's our saving grace. B. That this will end badly but, not yet. If you look back to the '29 crash that was also fueled by a careless debt-fueled cycle, you will see that prior to the main collapse, there was one last blow the top off-pump... That is what I believe began on March 23rd and will continue through the election. Nothing that has happened this year has been a surprise to the powerful elite. The real Bull/Bear battle here is political in nature, nothing maters but staying in control. I believe we are in an impulse 5 wave and will break ATH in the ES in the next 5 weeks. We are collecting under the top end of the all-important megaphone pattern and I believe we are about to breakthrough. After reaching ATH, matching the NASDAQ's pattern, then we will get a nice retracement to the top side of the megaphone pattern. From there a weaker and potentially very powerful bearish pattern. Perhaps a H&S pattern like BOEING's chart prior to the Feb breakdown. If Trump loses the market, he loses his base and the election. Therefore, there is nothing this "team" won't do to keep the party going for another few months. They have made that very clear and it's only 20 weeks away. I can see it now... Donny loses the election with markets at ATH's. like 4150 in the ES. Crazy numbers... He waves goodbye and signs his name on the V shape recovery he promised. Then, with the country in Biden/China's hands, we will see the epic collapse of our bloated state. 156% valuations to GPD might look small by November. ... or maybe we get rejected here and tumble, however, last I checked the money machine is still working. Food for thought or comment: What would happen if Biden wins and tries to clawback corporate tax cutes? Can he do that? What if the US's credit rating is downgraded internationally? What happens if we are no longer the reserve currency?
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Andimolz_
1
S&P500 Double Top - Descending TriangleLook, I am no economist, but the QQQ flirting with all time highs same as the S&P with a downward series of highs for second peak.. Plus, with news articles (and jim cramer) screaming BUY BUY BUY that is a bubble to me and do not get caught with your pants down in the next big drop. Yes, I am overall bearish but would prefer to be bullish. Nobody has successfully made the case why we should be bullish for the next 6 months. Short term, the economy is in bad shape. Posting retail numbers that are "not as bad as we thought" are still ignoring how bad they actually are! The fed pumping can only do so much to keep asset prices inflated. This time folks, we have painted ourselves into a corner. Continued gains in indexes will be met with serious selling resistance.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Gains4151
Comparing $SPY today to historical US Economic RecessionsI wouldn't be buying the dip if I were you... We're still incredibly early into this recession, and nearing highs only 117 days since the latest ATH on 2/11/2020. Historically, other recessions have resulted in DEEPER drawdowns over much LONGER time periods. I don't believe we are anywhere near out of the woods as we watch everyone and their mother opening Robinhood accounts to buy the dip and Davey Day Trader becoming a nationwide media sensation, I think it's time to take a step back. This is NOT to say there aren't specific stocks that will do well, and continue to do well. There are always winners, but realize they are definitely fewer and far between during these times.
AMEX:SPY
by nckp2p
$SPY MARKET BREAKDOWN - (June 13)SPY Market Breakdown - Weekend of June 13th Keeping this chart clean and simple, with the only technicals being simple S&R levels as well as my own Easy Loot indicator I created yesterday With the impending second wave of beer virus, the stonks markets are looking for another decent correction This being said, the marked out accumulation zone (green) on my chart at 272 - 286 is my buy zone AFTER I see clear indication of a trend reversal Right now it wouldn't be smart to go long, although it does seem like market is holding out at our known accumulation zone of 302 -308 What to expect on Monday? Scenario 1 Price continues holding at 302 - 308 right along the higher accumulation zone and stays flat going into next week Scenario 2 Price starts to fall and sell targets are placed going short , 1st TP @ 294, 2nd TP @ 286 From there we will re-evaluate the market and decide on our next entry either long or short, who knows? corona could come back all of a sudden and our bias completely changes Don't trade against the patterns of the market, you're going to get humbled. As always please do your own research, I am not a financial advisor.
AMEX:SPY
by kyer
9
Support is at 280 ish SPY SPXThe 14% pullback projection seen in the above is derived from the ratio of change seen in 2018. This thesis is based on the following: If 2018 was the beginning of a megaphone type corrective move, then the % change will be of greater magnitude; however, the ratio's expressed as % change should be statistically similar. During the corrective moves in 2018, we saw; first, a 20% decline followed by a 25% rally followed by a 7% retracement. Today, we have experienced a 35% decline, followed by a 47.5% rally. Is there going to be a Pull Back? Yes, we have seen that this week. How large of a pullback from recent highs will it be? My expectation; 14%. 20% to 35% is a ratio of 1.75, while 25% to 47.5% is a ratio of 1.85. So, if this corrective move is in similar terms to what happened in 2018 in terms of MATH, then I expect a total pullback of around 13.7% - 14.85% from recent highs. Will we retest lows? No, I do not believe so. 14% off of recent highs is around 282 - 280. Coincidentally, this is right near the 700sma red line. Please note this will probably happen after quadruple witching next week. *Just some guy/girl/they 's thoughts* Cheers -Andimolz //Logic Reference slow_sma = sma(src, 700) fast_sma = sma(src, 14) standard_sma = sma(src, 90) //slow_ema = ema(src, 700) //fast_ema = ema(src, 14) standard_ema = ema(src, 90)
SP:SPX
by Andimolz_
$ES, $SPY, $SPX headed to 2500. Q2 Earnings Pending,First, consider a fib retracement. We bounced back to the top fib retracement .236, and thats where we topped with a heavy head and shoulders patterned that crashed markets today. We might see a bounce and recovery soon, but I think this kicks of wave C of the correction wave, heading down now until the end of q2, where we start to see recovery happen in q3 and q4. This is a prediction and anything can happen. I expect Spy to hit 2500 or the .786 Retracement level.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by aashavmehta99