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SPX SPY in No Mans Land, Never seen before in market historyThis is a weekly chart and I meant to share this on Friday; but forgot. Blue vertical lines are the paths from previous bear market lows to new all time highs, over-layed to the bottom of October 2022. Red vertical lines are the bear market paths from all time highs to bear market lows, over-layed to the high of January 2022. As you can see we are no longer following the path of the "new" bull markets, and we we deviated away from bear market paths... well a while ago. So should we have been on a bear market path this whole time, but the stimulus from Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act helped support the market for just a short period of time?!?!? Well we will find out. I just know this is truly a historic pattern.
SP:SPX
by Options_Trading
SPY S&P500 ETF Options ahead of the FED Interest Rate DecisionThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. Moreover, core CPI, at 4.3% year-on-year, has held steady as per expectations. These numbers underscore the persistent inflationary trend we have been witnessing. Such elevated levels of inflation can be concerning for financial markets, as they often lead to higher interest rates. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, there is speculation of another 0.25 basis points rate hike, which would further tighten monetary policy. In light of this, I`m considering the following Puts: September 29, 2023 expiration date, $440 strike price, and $2.25 premium, to align with the bearish sentiment. This strategy could potentially be prudent given the expected market conditions. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant, as market reactions to FOMC decisions can be unpredictable and swift. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
1
AAPL Rounding Top - Monthly - BEARISH?AAPL forming a ROUNDING TOP on the MONTHLY chart? Could be a macro bearish reversal for this giant before it grows again? Or will it simply fall to the 150 range and continue bouncing upwards on that yellow trendline? I am BEARISH in the short to mid-term. The whole market will turn over giving the global macro conditions as well as piling national economic conditions. AAPL has broken down below it's bullish trendline after an amazing 2023 run. It has bad sentiment right now and has also formed a DIAMOND REVERSAL PATTERN on it's DAILY / WEEKLY. I think the whole market is in for a downtrend as we head into Q3 / Q4, and the downtrend begins with A for AAPL. It's what props the market up and it will be what drags it down as well Let me know your thoughts
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by beastiezep
1
Is SPY ETF set for down day tomorrow?My SPY analysis is pretty much aligned with the CBOE:SPX index Here is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart are the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5). Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 433 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 435.20. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 436.71, 435, and 3rd quartile at 432.5. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 436.48, median at 434.83, and the third quartile was near 432.60. THIS WEEK If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 424.19 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 433. A drop to 433 tomorrow would only be a 1.16% loss. A steeper loss in the main index could see the AMEX:SPY low in the 432.80 region. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go lower tomorrow. For now, I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 429 but still likely to occur midday Friday. THEORY BUSTERS A rise above 439.48 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 441.18 would place us back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockSignaler
3
Michael Burry Executes Massive Short of SPY and QQQIntroduction: In recent news, renowned investor Michael Burry has made waves by executing a massive short of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF). Burry's move has garnered significant attention, raising concerns about the future performance of these major USA stock market ETFs. This article aims to provide traders with a cautious analysis of the situation and present a call to action for those considering shorting these ETFs. The Burry Effect: Michael Burry, famously known for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, made a bold move again. By shorting the SPY and QQQ, Burry is signaling his belief that the current market conditions may be overvalued or potentially face a correction. Traders should take note of his historical accuracy and consider the implications of his actions. Understanding the Risks: Understanding the associated risks is crucial to approach any investment decision thoroughly. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ involves betting against the market's overall performance, which can be highly volatile and unpredictable. While Burry's track record is impressive, conducting independent research and analysis is essential before making investment decisions. Considerations for Shorting: 1. Diversification: Traders should ensure their portfolios are well-diversified, spreading risk across various asset classes and sectors. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ should be considered a strategic move within a broader investment strategy. 2. Risk Management: A clear risk management plan is crucial when shorting major market ETFs. Setting stop-loss orders and regularly monitoring positions can help mitigate potential losses. 3. Expert Advice: Consult with financial advisors or professionals specializing in shorting strategies. Their expertise can provide valuable insights and guidance tailored to individual trading goals and risk tolerance. Call-to-Action: Proceed with Caution Considering Michael Burry's recent shorting activity, traders are encouraged to proceed cautiously when contemplating short positions on SPY and QQQ. While Burry's reputation for accurate predictions is noteworthy, conducting thorough research and analysis is imperative, and assessing the potential risks and rewards associated with such trades is imperative. Ultimately, the decision to short these significant USA stock market ETFs should be based on an individual's risk appetite, investment strategy, and market outlook. Traders should carefully weigh the potential benefits against the inherent risks, seek professional advice, and consider alternative investment options. Conclusion: Michael Burry's massive short of SPY and QQQ has undoubtedly sparked interest and raised questions among traders. However, it is crucial to approach such investment decisions and conduct thorough research cautiously. By considering the risks, diversifying portfolios, and seeking expert advice, traders can make informed choices that align with their individual trading goals. Remember, shorting major ETFs is a complex strategy that requires careful consideration and may only be suitable for some.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bryandowningqln