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Is SPY ETF set for down day tomorrow?My SPY analysis is pretty much aligned with the CBOE:SPX index Here is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart are the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5). Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 433 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 435.20. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 436.71, 435, and 3rd quartile at 432.5. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 436.48, median at 434.83, and the third quartile was near 432.60. THIS WEEK If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 424.19 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 433. A drop to 433 tomorrow would only be a 1.16% loss. A steeper loss in the main index could see the AMEX:SPY low in the 432.80 region. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go lower tomorrow. For now, I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 429 but still likely to occur midday Friday. THEORY BUSTERS A rise above 439.48 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 441.18 would place us back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockSignaler
3
Michael Burry Executes Massive Short of SPY and QQQIntroduction: In recent news, renowned investor Michael Burry has made waves by executing a massive short of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF). Burry's move has garnered significant attention, raising concerns about the future performance of these major USA stock market ETFs. This article aims to provide traders with a cautious analysis of the situation and present a call to action for those considering shorting these ETFs. The Burry Effect: Michael Burry, famously known for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, made a bold move again. By shorting the SPY and QQQ, Burry is signaling his belief that the current market conditions may be overvalued or potentially face a correction. Traders should take note of his historical accuracy and consider the implications of his actions. Understanding the Risks: Understanding the associated risks is crucial to approach any investment decision thoroughly. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ involves betting against the market's overall performance, which can be highly volatile and unpredictable. While Burry's track record is impressive, conducting independent research and analysis is essential before making investment decisions. Considerations for Shorting: 1. Diversification: Traders should ensure their portfolios are well-diversified, spreading risk across various asset classes and sectors. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ should be considered a strategic move within a broader investment strategy. 2. Risk Management: A clear risk management plan is crucial when shorting major market ETFs. Setting stop-loss orders and regularly monitoring positions can help mitigate potential losses. 3. Expert Advice: Consult with financial advisors or professionals specializing in shorting strategies. Their expertise can provide valuable insights and guidance tailored to individual trading goals and risk tolerance. Call-to-Action: Proceed with Caution Considering Michael Burry's recent shorting activity, traders are encouraged to proceed cautiously when contemplating short positions on SPY and QQQ. While Burry's reputation for accurate predictions is noteworthy, conducting thorough research and analysis is imperative, and assessing the potential risks and rewards associated with such trades is imperative. Ultimately, the decision to short these significant USA stock market ETFs should be based on an individual's risk appetite, investment strategy, and market outlook. Traders should carefully weigh the potential benefits against the inherent risks, seek professional advice, and consider alternative investment options. Conclusion: Michael Burry's massive short of SPY and QQQ has undoubtedly sparked interest and raised questions among traders. However, it is crucial to approach such investment decisions and conduct thorough research cautiously. By considering the risks, diversifying portfolios, and seeking expert advice, traders can make informed choices that align with their individual trading goals. Remember, shorting major ETFs is a complex strategy that requires careful consideration and may only be suitable for some.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bryandowningqln
SPY close analysis 6/21/2023 - Head and Shoulders Danger ZoneOuch! That doesn't look good. Today opened with a gap down that bulls failed to completely close. Now here we are after close threatening a particularly nasty looking head and shoulders topping pattern right off my diagonal supply zone. I don't like this at all! That gap above at 437.25 is going to be problematic for the bulls after the failed fill today. Fill it quickly tomorrow and get that oscillator moving back up and *maybe* things will turn out for the bulls. It wouldn't surprise me to see a gap down and bears work on that "gap support" zone in the mid 430's tomorrow. If things get really heated, I've charted an even lower open gap + fib golden pocket retrace target that has perfect moving average support at 423. That would be quite the move. Powell speaks again tomorrow, could this do it? My trade plan for tomorrow: Break 432 I'll call the H&S confirmed and short. Long if we can clean the gap above 437.25. Anything in between 432 and 437 I expect chop so no trade.
AMEX:SPYShort
by upslidedown
2
SPY HIT RESISTANCE. So, as I stated before, when spy was around 429, I said resistance is at 438 and low and behold not only did it hit 438 it actually went to 439 and that’s when I began to short the market. Remember be early to the party do not be the last person there Clearly what happened yesterday was not because of the fear speaking it was just something that was bound to happen sooner or later you must understand that 90% or more of the market is controlled by the wealthy. So what happens now it’s pre-market and we are back at 435 and incredible area of support Thursday this afternoon. Maybe the day where Speyer could potentially break this support and hit down even more as we go into witching on Friday to conclude this post the only thing that’s keeping Spy afloat is tech. Not to mention the Fed said later on this year they will increase rates again. The next witching dates are in September and December as I’ve seen time and time again when everyone is greedy, look elsewhere, and when everyone is fearful, look elsewhere..
AMEX:SPYShort
by Courtneyd
This is the topHowdy folks its been a while, Wanted to come back and let all you good folks know that this is the top, the range that we are in is the top. I've been conflicted in my self confidence of decision making when it comes to trading and has been a shock. Almost like I lost sight of who I thought I was, that hurt my ego. We are not our ego though? We think we know ourselves, all we know is what we are not. New data, new perspective, new algo, new view. When we know what we are not is when we can see what we are. That's all folks,
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by moonman777
SPY: Support Becomes Resistance (Macro)SPY has reached the .618 Fib retrace level and we are definitely at a crossroads. If price break through this level and flips resistance into support, then the macro measured move on the monthly, puts price in the $700s. If resistance holds then we have a measured move to the $330 level, before hypothetically resuming this trend. If resistance holds and we resume our downtrend over the next few months than it is hard to say how things will play out from there. The upward channel could be considered broken and we form a new trend going forward. Although, another measured move down to the $330 level does seem to form a macro bullfrog on the SPY which is bullish. Given the warnings that the macro data has been flashing as far as manufacturing and china and consumer credit card debt and drop in savings accounts, etc. It is very likely resistance will hold and we continue downward temporarily from here. It is honestly a best case scenario because equities are fairly expensive right now.
AMEX:SPY
by Goontata84
1
WITCHING FOLKSPlease don't get caught in the storm. scroll down to my previous postings about witching data. on the 13th we have FOMC data releasing as they have been inclined to pause interest rate hikes. however CPI data is released at 830 pre market. the crazy thing is over the past 3 CPI data releases Spy barely moved I remember almost all of last year when CPI released it was like earnings and the BIG WIGS WERE HATING AND STOPPED YET AGAIN A WAY FOR AVERAGE PPL TO GET RICH THATS WHAT THEY DO PLAY GAMES> anyway here on the 4hour we have bearish confluence forming . the know what's coming so they will try to hold this up probably until Thursday after noon. if your going to be placing puts please hedge your positions. because I expect the first move to happen wayyyyyyy before Friday.my next resistance is show above at 438, still yet no sell off and OMG look at TESLA contracts went from $70 to $700. You do not want to miss this fall.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Courtneyd
2
SPY/SPX 500 UPDATES Hello Traders. I made a prediction last month of May on SPY/SPX500 that price can go to 430$. Im waiting to break of structure @444$ supply zone. before it goes below. This ideas are mostly base on nasdaq stocks also. If you compare it. same scenario. On a bearish side, Wait for the previous High on left side to be break, and its originality of the price below, Thats the target zone for bearish. This is not a financial advice, Lets goo 400 followers soon. For free content and daily ideas check out my signature. Follow for more.
AMEX:SPYShort
by D1GITALTRADES
Is there stock market drop based on around SPX possible? As we have all seen, the stock market has been on a steady rise for some time now, but I fear that we may be on the brink of a significant drop. There are several reasons for my concern. While governments and central banks have taken measures to mitigate the effects of this past pandemic disruption, the long-term impact on the economy is still uncertain. Secondly, we are seeing signs of overvaluation in many sectors of the market. Companies that are not yet profitable are seeing their stock prices soar, and the valuations of some of the largest tech companies are reaching levels that are difficult to justify. Finally, we are seeing a significant increase in market volatility, with large swings in both directions becoming more common. This volatility is a clear sign that investors are becoming increasingly uncertain about the future of the market. Given these factors, I believe it is important for traders to be wary of the current stock market rally. While it is always difficult to predict the future, I believe that the risks of a significant market drop are high. As such, I encourage you to be cautious in your trading decisions and to consider taking steps to protect your investments. This could include diversifying your portfolio, investing in defensive sectors, or even reducing your exposure to the market altogether. In conclusion, I urge you to take these warnings seriously and to be prepared for the possibility of a significant market drop. While I hope my concerns are unfounded, I believe it is better to be safe than sorry.
CBOE:SPX
by bryandowningqln
4
Stock Market Death Cross, Impending Earnings RecessionRSP was trading below the 200 day moving average in the after hours. I wonder if it is going to open that way tomorrow. Also the 63 day moving average, which represents the quarterly moving average has fallen below the 200 day moving average as well. Not too often does this happen and more downside doesn't follow in the weeks to come. From a pivot point perspective the total market is also trading below the pivot entering the month of June signaling that although mega caps have rallied in a major way, the average analyst consensus is a bearish stance. I say that as we've recently seen recent reports that further margin contraction is under way and an earnings recession later in the year is coming. Check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Amazon and Spotify to learn more about stock trading and investing.
AMEX:RSPShort
by D1Finance