SPY - Wyckoff DistributionSPY potentially could be in the beginning stages of a Wyckoff Distribution phase. Predicting price to gravitate between golden Fib zone for the UT & eventual UTAD before price falls in line with trend line ~320-330
Spyshort
SPY - bearish - pitchfork analysisOn the weekly chart SPY is close to some resistance pitchfork lines and the RSI is approximately in divergence with the price (the price high although lower then the earlier high it's still high relative to how the RSI high is in relation to the earlier one). On the daily chart the price is close to resistance pitchfork lines and the the RSI reached a resistance pitchfork line.
$AMEX:SPY SPY descending triangleAMEX:SPY Range $430 - $427 possible on the downside till Tuesday the 27th and then we take another look.
Leaving Gaps to the Upside we can fill at a later date.
SPY close analysis 6/21/2023 - Head and Shoulders Danger ZoneOuch! That doesn't look good. Today opened with a gap down that bulls failed to completely close. Now here we are after close threatening a particularly nasty looking head and shoulders topping pattern right off my diagonal supply zone. I don't like this at all!
That gap above at 437.25 is going to be problematic for the bulls after the failed fill today. Fill it quickly tomorrow and get that oscillator moving back up and *maybe* things will turn out for the bulls.
It wouldn't surprise me to see a gap down and bears work on that "gap support" zone in the mid 430's tomorrow. If things get really heated, I've charted an even lower open gap + fib golden pocket retrace target that has perfect moving average support at 423. That would be quite the move. Powell speaks again tomorrow, could this do it?
My trade plan for tomorrow: Break 432 I'll call the H&S confirmed and short. Long if we can clean the gap above 437.25. Anything in between 432 and 437 I expect chop so no trade.
SPY - Wyckoff DistributionSPY potentially could be in the beginning stages of a Wyckoff Distribution phase. Predicting price to gravitate between golden Fib zone for the UT & eventual UTAD before price falls in line with trend line ~320-330
SPY HIT RESISTANCE. So, as I stated before, when spy was around 429, I said resistance is at 438 and low and behold not only did it hit 438 it actually went to 439 and that’s when I began to short the market. Remember be early to the party do not be the last person there Clearly what happened yesterday was not because of the fear speaking it was just something that was bound to happen sooner or later you must understand that 90% or more of the market is controlled by the wealthy. So what happens now it’s pre-market and we are back at 435 and incredible area of support Thursday this afternoon. Maybe the day where Speyer could potentially break this support and hit down even more as we go into witching on Friday to conclude this post the only thing that’s keeping Spy afloat is tech. Not to mention the Fed said later on this year they will increase rates again. The next witching dates are in September and December as I’ve seen time and time again when everyone is greedy, look elsewhere, and when everyone is fearful, look elsewhere..
This is the topHowdy folks its been a while,
Wanted to come back and let all you good folks know that this is the top, the range that we are in is the top.
I've been conflicted in my self confidence of decision making when it comes to trading and has been a shock. Almost like I lost sight of who I thought I was, that hurt my ego.
We are not our ego though? We think we know ourselves, all we know is what we are not. New data, new perspective, new algo, new view.
When we know what we are not is when we can see what we are.
That's all folks,
SPY: Support Becomes Resistance (Macro)SPY has reached the .618 Fib retrace level and we are definitely at a crossroads. If price break through
this level and flips resistance into support, then the macro measured move on the monthly, puts price in
the $700s. If resistance holds then we have a measured move to the $330 level, before hypothetically
resuming this trend. If resistance holds and we resume our downtrend over the next few months than it is
hard to say how things will play out from there. The upward channel could be considered broken and we
form a new trend going forward. Although, another measured move down to the $330 level does seem
to form a macro bullfrog on the SPY which is bullish.
Given the warnings that the macro data has been flashing as far as manufacturing and china and consumer
credit card debt and drop in savings accounts, etc. It is very likely resistance will hold and we continue
downward temporarily from here. It is honestly a best case scenario because equities are fairly expensive right now.
WITCHING FOLKSPlease don't get caught in the storm. scroll down to my previous postings about witching data. on the 13th we have FOMC data releasing as they have been inclined to pause interest rate hikes. however CPI data is released at 830 pre market. the crazy thing is over the past 3 CPI data releases Spy barely moved I remember almost all of last year when CPI released it was like earnings and the BIG WIGS WERE HATING AND STOPPED YET AGAIN A WAY FOR AVERAGE PPL TO GET RICH THATS WHAT THEY DO PLAY GAMES> anyway here on the 4hour we have bearish confluence forming . the know what's coming so they will try to hold this up probably until Thursday after noon. if your going to be placing puts please hedge your positions. because I expect the first move to happen wayyyyyyy before Friday.my next resistance is show above at 438, still yet no sell off and OMG look at TESLA contracts went from $70 to $700. You do not want to miss this fall.
$UNH - United Health Wyckoff DistributionUnited Health showing signs of weakness...
***Easily the best Wyckoff Study case we've seen in a while.***
Here is what we're seeing with Wyckoff Distribution
SPY/SPX 500 UPDATES
Hello Traders. I made a prediction last month of May on SPY/SPX500 that price can go to 430$.
Im waiting to break of structure @444$ supply zone. before it goes below.
This ideas are mostly base on nasdaq stocks also. If you compare it. same scenario.
On a bearish side, Wait for the previous High on left side to be break, and its originality of the price below, Thats the target zone for bearish.
This is not a financial advice,
Lets goo 400 followers soon.
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Is there stock market drop based on around SPX possible? As we have all seen, the stock market has been on a steady rise for some time now, but I fear that we may be on the brink of a significant drop.
There are several reasons for my concern. While governments and central banks have taken measures to mitigate the effects of this past pandemic disruption, the long-term impact on the economy is still uncertain.
Secondly, we are seeing signs of overvaluation in many sectors of the market. Companies that are not yet profitable are seeing their stock prices soar, and the valuations of some of the largest tech companies are reaching levels that are difficult to justify.
Finally, we are seeing a significant increase in market volatility, with large swings in both directions becoming more common. This volatility is a clear sign that investors are becoming increasingly uncertain about the future of the market.
Given these factors, I believe it is important for traders to be wary of the current stock market rally. While it is always difficult to predict the future, I believe that the risks of a significant market drop are high.
As such, I encourage you to be cautious in your trading decisions and to consider taking steps to protect your investments. This could include diversifying your portfolio, investing in defensive sectors, or even reducing your exposure to the market altogether.
In conclusion, I urge you to take these warnings seriously and to be prepared for the possibility of a significant market drop. While I hope my concerns are unfounded, I believe it is better to be safe than sorry.
QQQ to $335 is likely what we're about to Witness!Investors who want to take advantage of what happened today can short the QQQ at the September 15, expiration and hedge with short SQQQ at the July 21 expiration. Delta neutral positions would be the best.
Check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Amazon and Spotify for more quality information on trading and investing.
Stock Market Death Cross, Impending Earnings RecessionRSP was trading below the 200 day moving average in the after hours. I wonder if it is going to open that way tomorrow. Also the 63 day moving average, which represents the quarterly moving average has fallen below the 200 day moving average as well. Not too often does this happen and more downside doesn't follow in the weeks to come.
From a pivot point perspective the total market is also trading below the pivot entering the month of June signaling that although mega caps have rallied in a major way, the average analyst consensus is a bearish stance. I say that as we've recently seen recent reports that further margin contraction is under way and an earnings recession later in the year is coming.
Check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Amazon and Spotify to learn more about stock trading and investing.
SPY S&P 500 etf price after the Debt Ceiling DealSPY, the S&P 500 index etf, perfectly touched the resistance predicted in the last article:
Now I`m waiting for a retracement and considering the following puts:
2023-8-18 expiration date
$408 strike price
$4.50
Of course, it`s not trading advice!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SPY Late Long Push - Key LevelsKinda late on this one, but AMEX:SPY is making it's way towards the $426.47 price level. It previously broke out of a wedge when looking at a 4hr or 1d timeframe. It recently broke out of the triangle, indicating the higher push. The second price level could possibly be around $429.67.
SPY S&P 500 Index ETF and the Debt Ceiling DealThe political climate is favorable for a small rally of SPY, the S&P 500 Index ETF, towards the next resistance level of $430.
After several weeks of tense negotiations, President Joe Biden and House Republicans have reached an agreement in principle to address the debt limit and cap spending. The debt-ceiling deal is now finalized, and here are significant parts of the agreement:
First, the agreement suspends our $31 Trillion debt ceiling until January 2025, providing some relief and avoiding immediate concerns.
Additionally, the agreement ends the pause on student loan repayments, allowing borrowers to resume their payments. This decision aims to ensure the stability of the student loan system and address the long-term financial implications.
Furthermore, the agreement includes stricter work requirements for low-income and older Americans who receive food stamps. These requirements are intended to encourage self-sufficiency and help ensure that federal aid benefits are effectively utilized.
Regarding IRS funding, the agreement entails a $20 billion reduction from the initially proposed $80 billion budget. This reduction specifically targets the allocation meant to crack down on tax evasion by wealthy individuals and corporations.
Moreover, the deal puts an end to the ongoing freeze on monthly student loan payments and interest. It also introduces restrictions on the President's ability to reintroduce such a freeze in the future.
To avoid contentious debates until after the next presidential election, the agreement suspends the debt limit until January 2025. This decision provides a temporary relief from potential conflicts surrounding the debt limit.
The agreement also implements new work conditions for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, raising the age limit for work requirements to 54. This measure aims to promote workforce participation and enhance the effectiveness of federal aid programs.
Overall, this comprehensive agreement addresses various aspects of the debt limit and spending caps, aiming to strike a balance between fiscal responsibility and supporting those in need.
My overall outlook is still bearish and i think the small rally could easily turn into a bull trap.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Traders should consider going short if $SPY rises to $430Economic growth in the united states is projected to begin showing signs of slowing in the second half of the year. Potential double top coming near $430 on AMEX:SPY . This is also a 61.8% retracement from the high of 2021 to the lows of 2022. Taking a short position at September 15 expiration while hedging against the trade with a long call at June 16th expiration should make this trade go smoothly. This trade is not for low delta positions but 35 delta plus.
SPY: FLUSH OR RALLY / MARKET BREADTH / MARKET MAKERS TIMINGDescription: In the chart above I have provided a semi-macro analysis of SPY that compares ongoing market rally and past rallies within the range of 420 & 360 Points.
Points:
1. Price Action is fast approaching 420 Resistance that has been indicative of a turn around for past 4 rallies that failed to break the 420 LEVEL.
2. First 2 rallies under the 420 Level showed signs of congruence when it came to market breadth and price action.
3. Last 3 rallies including current one has shown divergence with market breadth along with a distinct pattern of consolidation that is followed by a sudden drop in price action.
4. It is important for price action to have another leg even if current uptrend is continued.
First Price Target: 404.64 Bouncing Support
Second Price Target: 400 Critical Support
Market Breadth:
1. Showing strong signs of divergence with average price action continuing to rise. The Tech Sector is mainly responsible for the upholding of this rally with giants like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE fighting against bearish momentum.
2. For the majority of US INDICES Tech companies like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE represent a large majority of the holdings within many US INDICES. So it is no coincidence for why market breadth may appear weak when only a couple holdings are contributing to rallies meanwhile a large majority of the holdings are in the red.
3. Market Breadth Levels of 4200 have been indicative of volatile declines in price action in the past with an average incoming 10 POINT DECLINE over a day or two.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
AMEX:SPY
The Debt Ceiling The debt ceiling in the US is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the U.S. Treasury.
President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to hold a direct meeting on Monday following a weekend of intermittent negotiations regarding the nation's debt ceiling. This meeting takes place just days before the government faces a critical "hard deadline" where it risks running out of funds to meet its financial obligations.
The possibility of a government default is unprecedented and would have devastating consequences for the nation's economy. Yellen and economic experts have expressed concerns, highlighting the potential for the situation to become "catastrophic."
In the past, raising the debt ceiling used to be a routine act carried out by Congress, enabling the Treasury Department to continue borrowing funds to cover the nation's already incurred bills.
However, in recent times, the vote to raise the debt ceiling has become a point of political leverage, with lawmakers using it as a must-pass bill to push forward other priorities.
House Republicans, who hold the majority this Congress, are currently refusing to raise the debt limit unless President Biden and the Democrats agree to implement federal spending cuts and impose restrictions on future spending.
In my opinion, we will see a suspension of the debt ceiling to allow for negotiations to form and be completed. As a result, I have a short-term bullish outlook, followed by an anticipated drop to $392 after the announcement, whatever it may be.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SPY at top of channel?Haven't published an idea yet so here is one. Clear up channel over last 2 months SPY. Hitting the upper side of the channel with 421 range being the point to retrace if channel holds. Potential Short/Put opportunity here tomorrow or early next week?
taking a short to 4100 (b) leg of the bearish cypherlooking for a retrace back to B leg of the bearish cypher near 4102.. I'll cover the short above 4150 area of the sp 500 futures
RNLC - US Large Cap - & S&P500 This is a very bearish outline for the market.
If we look at RNLC - the US Large Cap Select ETF then it is showing head and shoulders with a pair of longer-term RSI divergences.
I believe this could be an indicator of where SPX is going in the near future.
SPX itself is showing a rising wedge that appears to be forming right where the head and shoulders on RNLC is.
There is what appears to be a messy very-long-term RSI divergence in place as well along with a messy fledging short-term RSI divergence.
I'm waiting for a good entry sign, but I think what we are witnessing is a B Wave higher (a bull trap in non-technical terms)
I suspect RNLC may lead SPX to a certain extent. So I will be using it as an indicator here.
In elliot wave terms, I sketch out the following and feedback is welcome.
My suspicion is that we have seen a leading diagonal move down from the Jan 2022 highs (rather than a regular impulse). This form allows for overlap of 2 and 4 (which is a no-no in regular impulses).
I also suspect that the bounce from the October lows is an ABC up, and the bounce from the March lows is actually a wave 2 up.
It's all one big trap-within-a-trap.
I have no idea of the catalyst yet... but of course, catalysts are only usually visible with 20/20 hindsight.
The technicals are what they are and I cannot ignore them.
I would set 2900 as a conservative downside target here, but I actually have no idea of the total downside potential. The 2000-3000 range is where many other analysts are placing their targets, so I think it's important to not get too greedy or buy-in to the narratives about total economic collapse.
This would constitute 100% of the move from the 2022 high.
I am already short a couple of stocks and I have an short against the SPX itself... and if the short-term wedge breaks I will certainly double-down on my positions.
Trade carefully and more updates soon.
