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SPY S&P 500 Index ETF and the Debt Ceiling DealThe political climate is favorable for a small rally of SPY, the S&P 500 Index ETF, towards the next resistance level of $430. After several weeks of tense negotiations, President Joe Biden and House Republicans have reached an agreement in principle to address the debt limit and cap spending. The debt-ceiling deal is now finalized, and here are significant parts of the agreement: First, the agreement suspends our $31 Trillion debt ceiling until January 2025, providing some relief and avoiding immediate concerns. Additionally, the agreement ends the pause on student loan repayments, allowing borrowers to resume their payments. This decision aims to ensure the stability of the student loan system and address the long-term financial implications. Furthermore, the agreement includes stricter work requirements for low-income and older Americans who receive food stamps. These requirements are intended to encourage self-sufficiency and help ensure that federal aid benefits are effectively utilized. Regarding IRS funding, the agreement entails a $20 billion reduction from the initially proposed $80 billion budget. This reduction specifically targets the allocation meant to crack down on tax evasion by wealthy individuals and corporations. Moreover, the deal puts an end to the ongoing freeze on monthly student loan payments and interest. It also introduces restrictions on the President's ability to reintroduce such a freeze in the future. To avoid contentious debates until after the next presidential election, the agreement suspends the debt limit until January 2025. This decision provides a temporary relief from potential conflicts surrounding the debt limit. The agreement also implements new work conditions for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, raising the age limit for work requirements to 54. This measure aims to promote workforce participation and enhance the effectiveness of federal aid programs. Overall, this comprehensive agreement addresses various aspects of the debt limit and spending caps, aiming to strike a balance between fiscal responsibility and supporting those in need. My overall outlook is still bearish and i think the small rally could easily turn into a bull trap. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1
Traders should consider going short if $SPY rises to $430Economic growth in the united states is projected to begin showing signs of slowing in the second half of the year. Potential double top coming near $430 on AMEX:SPY . This is also a 61.8% retracement from the high of 2021 to the lows of 2022. Taking a short position at September 15 expiration while hedging against the trade with a long call at June 16th expiration should make this trade go smoothly. This trade is not for low delta positions but 35 delta plus.
AMEX:SPYShort
by D1Finance
2
SPY: FLUSH OR RALLY / MARKET BREADTH / MARKET MAKERS TIMINGDescription: In the chart above I have provided a semi-macro analysis of SPY that compares ongoing market rally and past rallies within the range of 420 & 360 Points. Points: 1. Price Action is fast approaching 420 Resistance that has been indicative of a turn around for past 4 rallies that failed to break the 420 LEVEL. 2. First 2 rallies under the 420 Level showed signs of congruence when it came to market breadth and price action. 3. Last 3 rallies including current one has shown divergence with market breadth along with a distinct pattern of consolidation that is followed by a sudden drop in price action. 4. It is important for price action to have another leg even if current uptrend is continued. First Price Target: 404.64 Bouncing Support Second Price Target: 400 Critical Support Market Breadth: 1. Showing strong signs of divergence with average price action continuing to rise. The Tech Sector is mainly responsible for the upholding of this rally with giants like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE fighting against bearish momentum. 2. For the majority of US INDICES Tech companies like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE represent a large majority of the holdings within many US INDICES. So it is no coincidence for why market breadth may appear weak when only a couple holdings are contributing to rallies meanwhile a large majority of the holdings are in the red. 3. Market Breadth Levels of 4200 have been indicative of volatile declines in price action in the past with an average incoming 10 POINT DECLINE over a day or two. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPYShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
The Debt Ceiling The debt ceiling in the US is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the U.S. Treasury. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to hold a direct meeting on Monday following a weekend of intermittent negotiations regarding the nation's debt ceiling. This meeting takes place just days before the government faces a critical "hard deadline" where it risks running out of funds to meet its financial obligations. The possibility of a government default is unprecedented and would have devastating consequences for the nation's economy. Yellen and economic experts have expressed concerns, highlighting the potential for the situation to become "catastrophic." In the past, raising the debt ceiling used to be a routine act carried out by Congress, enabling the Treasury Department to continue borrowing funds to cover the nation's already incurred bills. However, in recent times, the vote to raise the debt ceiling has become a point of political leverage, with lawmakers using it as a must-pass bill to push forward other priorities. House Republicans, who hold the majority this Congress, are currently refusing to raise the debt limit unless President Biden and the Democrats agree to implement federal spending cuts and impose restrictions on future spending. In my opinion, we will see a suspension of the debt ceiling to allow for negotiations to form and be completed. As a result, I have a short-term bullish outlook, followed by an anticipated drop to $392 after the announcement, whatever it may be. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
RNLC - US Large Cap - & S&P500 This is a very bearish outline for the market. If we look at RNLC - the US Large Cap Select ETF then it is showing head and shoulders with a pair of longer-term RSI divergences. I believe this could be an indicator of where SPX is going in the near future. SPX itself is showing a rising wedge that appears to be forming right where the head and shoulders on RNLC is. There is what appears to be a messy very-long-term RSI divergence in place as well along with a messy fledging short-term RSI divergence. I'm waiting for a good entry sign, but I think what we are witnessing is a B Wave higher (a bull trap in non-technical terms) I suspect RNLC may lead SPX to a certain extent. So I will be using it as an indicator here. In elliot wave terms, I sketch out the following and feedback is welcome. My suspicion is that we have seen a leading diagonal move down from the Jan 2022 highs (rather than a regular impulse). This form allows for overlap of 2 and 4 (which is a no-no in regular impulses). I also suspect that the bounce from the October lows is an ABC up, and the bounce from the March lows is actually a wave 2 up. It's all one big trap-within-a-trap. I have no idea of the catalyst yet... but of course, catalysts are only usually visible with 20/20 hindsight. The technicals are what they are and I cannot ignore them. I would set 2900 as a conservative downside target here, but I actually have no idea of the total downside potential. The 2000-3000 range is where many other analysts are placing their targets, so I think it's important to not get too greedy or buy-in to the narratives about total economic collapse. This would constitute 100% of the move from the 2022 high. I am already short a couple of stocks and I have an short against the SPX itself... and if the short-term wedge breaks I will certainly double-down on my positions. Trade carefully and more updates soon.
SP:SPXShort
by RogueEconomics
2
Is a Two-Phase Market Sell-Off on the Horizon for $ES1/$SPY?SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( / AMEX:SPY ) - Market Update - 10/9/23 Introduction Monitoring possible market changes as we move through the constantly evolving financial environment is essential. In today’s release of the SPY Trading Pro newsletter, we will examine how a significant market decline may happen in two separate stages and its potential effects on investors who are either optimistic or pessimistic. We'll also talk about how economic occurrences like the imminent publishing of April's CPI figures can influence the market's direction. Phase 1: A Quick Tumble for CME_MINI:ES1! Futures The first phase of the predicted sell-off sees the CME_MINI:ES1! future losing a staggering 664 points over just five days. This rapid decline may prompt a market rebound, which would be the ideal outcome for bullish investors. However, if the market fails to recover at this point, we could be in for an even more significant downturn. Phase 2: A Prolonged Plunge Should the market not bounce back after Phase 1, we'll find ourselves in the midst of Phase 2. This would entail ES futures losing an additional 2,255 points over the following 23 days. When including Phase 1, the entire process would span 18 days, resulting in the most significant sell-off of the year – a 33% drop compared to the February to March decline. CPI Data and Market Trends Economic events often strongly influence market movements, and the upcoming release of April's CPI monthly data is no exception. Scheduled for release at 8:30 AM on 5/10/23, this crucial data could significantly impact market trends. Based on my analysis and signals, I expect the CPI to be hotter than the previous month, potentially contributing to the sell-off. Strategic Trade: PUT Options with Upcoming Expirations In anticipation of the potential market sell-off, I placed a trade today for 6/16/2023 expiration in-the-money (ITM) PUTs with a strike price of 414. This trade aims to capitalize on the market movement and secure profits amid the anticipated downturn. Additionally, I have set a limit order for 410 6/16/2023 expiration out-of-the-money (OTM) PUTs with a strike price of 405, providing a further opportunity to profit from the predicted sell-off. Support Levels: 4138 (major), 4134, 4123-4118 (major), 4110, 4095 (major), 4083-4078 (major), 4066, 4062 (major), 4048 (major), 4039, 4022-25 (major), 4010-4013 (major), 3987, 3981-3983 (major), 3974 (major), 3967, 3950-55 (major) Resistance Levels: 4142, 4147, 4156 (major), 4165, 4178-4181 (major), 4191, 4197 (major), 4205, 4212 (major), 4221, 4228 (major), 4242 (major), 4249, 4262, 4272 (major), 4281 (major), 4289, 4301-4305 (major), 4310, 4328 (major), 4341 (major) Conclusion: While predicting market movements is never an exact science, current indicators suggest we may be on the verge of a significant two-phase sell-off. By staying informed about economic events, such as the release of CPI data, investors can better prepare for these potential market shifts and make more informed decisions about their investments. Keep following the SPY Trading Pro newsletter for the latest market insights and trading strategies. Not Investment Advice: Please note that the information and strategies shared in this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice, nor should they be used as a basis for making any investment decisions. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions, and ensure you understand the risks involved in trading and investing.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
3
SPY S&P 500 ETF Prediction Ahead of FED Rate Hike Decision ! This week's Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, and I`m predicting that the market will go down following the announcement. The primary reason for this prediction is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, with no rate cuts predicted for this year. Based on fixed income futures, there is a 70% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25-percentage-points, while only a 30% chance that they will hold rates steady. My prediction is that the Fed will indeed raise interest rates, which could lead to a market downturn as higher interest rates tend to slow down economic growth. If the Fed's decision leads to higher interest rates that remain in place for an extended period, it could result in lower spending and investment by consumers and businesses, which could further exacerbate the market downturn. Therefore, many investors are closely monitoring any signals regarding future rate hikes or cuts and preparing for a potential dip in the market following the announcement. According to the technical analysis chart, the SPY appears to be forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. This pattern typically consists of three peaks, with the first and third peaks being of similar size and the middle peak being the highest. Based on this pattern, my estimated price target for the SPY is 390. Based on my analysis, I would buy the following PUTS ahead of Fed's decision: 2023-7-21 expiration date 390usd strike price $5.05 premium I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
12
SPY close analysis, 5/1/2023As expected from old chart levels, boss bears showed up right on time at the 416 level for a second round. We're now below 416 with momentum crossing down in oscillator. I call that confirmation. Sure looks to me like we're on a path downward until we find some support. My guess is we're headed back to that 411 zone before we can make it into the 420ish zone. Long term, I still think we tap the diagonal supply zone levels above (bullish). But shorter term, bears have their chance here to do something in the next 48hrs and find that level of support. Expectations for Fed interest rates on Wednesday look baked in. While the market seems to relish in any data excuse to move, I don't really expect much in the way of surprises. Till then I'm slightly bearish bias tomorrow and assuming consolidation/testing for support before some bigger moves are made on Wednesday.
AMEX:SPYShort
by upslidedown
S&P MAJOR Pivot Point back to 2009 LOW - LOWER Prices likely!!Markets are at MAJOR Pivot point around this Trend Line connecting 2009 GFC Low at 666 to today's CLOSE and last DECEMBER 2022 High. Markets typically get rejected off this resistance and have been rejected every time since 2009 EXCEPT when we had LOW Interest Rates + PPP after Covid. That is ONLY time markets broke ABOVE this line. We broke Below this line in 2022 drop and its proven to be a major pivot point with prices struggling to stay above it. Most recently Price was rejected from this line in Dec 2022. We are retesting it again after Breaking the Downtrend Line from 2022 that everyone thinks means that we now have a "melt up". Current S&P Price is at May 2021 levels when we had ZERO Interest Rates and PPP. We are ON this Resistance/Pivot Line. CPI Data comes out in the morning. Probabilities suggest the market gets rejected and goes LOWER not higher. Despite the break in downtrend. For those of you that think Breaking a down trend and melt up is imminent go back and look at S&P chart in March - May 2008. The SAME Exact pattern as is being formed today occurred before the market tanked lower for next 12 months from May 2008 to 2009 low. Trade what you see...
CBOE:SPXShort
by eganon69
4
S&P500 short limit at 4135.5Intraday trading idea with 4.8R on the table. Supply and demand pockets followed with impulsive inefficient moves have been reliable on ES. Closest pocket of supply that broke higher timeframe market structure is around tested Support-turn-Resistance line. I am expecting the price to retrace to the 4135-4145 area and then continue downwards. Entry: 4135.5 Stop: Top of the supply zone 4144.5 Target: 4091.5 4.89R trade Looser Stop loss at 4150 still gives 3R trade. Depending on the market conditions, but I will most likely play this as soft and hard stop loss, adding into position after confirmation of the validity of the setup. Setup is invalid if we just continue downwards - and break the low of 4091.5.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by CleoFinance
The inevitable collapseDXY looks to be at a reversal point, or is it? This is why I love looking at a ticker in relation to another by using the / symbol. The way it works is ( ticker youre interested in )/( in relation to another ticker ) . For this instance we will look at both DXY/SPY and SPY/DXY. Typically SPY and DXY do not move in correlation, in fact they move in the opposite directions. When the dollar is strong, stocks fall as more people invest in the dollar as opposed to stocks. In the contrary when more people are investing in stocks, there is less money being put into the dollar. First lets look at only the DXY chart. Here we are looking at the weekly chart of the dollar. Although we are still in a downtrend, with the 9,21 and 50 ema stacking to the downside, there seems to be the possibility of a double bottom occurring at a previous support level of 101. By looking just at this chart, the dollar looks primed for a reversal. The question is how strong of a reversal will it be? Next lets look at the DXY/SPY chart. This chart is a much different story and shows tremendous weakness in the dollar in comparison to stocks. We have a head and shoulders with the last reject off of the 200ma. The candles are following the downwards momentum along the ema with the continuing lows of the MACD and RSI. Last, lets look at SPY/DXY As SPY and the dollar are inversely correlated its no wonder that this chart is showing significant strength in SPY. We have an inverse head and shoulders with the 9,21, and 50 ema going upwards also followed with the upwards trajectory of MACD and RSI. If there is a break of the resistance line, I am even more than certain we are on our way to another bull run. I know the thought of a bull run sounds insane with so much talk about a recession but do you think the market wont be prepared for a massive short squeeze as everyone and their mothers have gone short in anticipation of a killer recession? Remember, the market never does what the masses want it to do. TLDR: DXY looks poised for a reversal but comparing DXY to SPY by looking at DXY/SPY and SPY/DXY shows significant weakness in the dollar in comparison to stocks. DXY and SPY are inversely correlated. All charts combined shows we may have a slight bounce in the dollar, but there is more downside still to come.
TVC:DXYShort
by MoRafi
SPY obvious Double Top If you go back to the 30th of November to the week of witching in December 2022; specifically the 13th of DEC you can see how it came to a double top and then shot down from there. Also the 50 EMA was above the 200 EMA as well. The same situation that we are currently in . Please pay attention because a move is getting ready to happen right before our eyes and most don't understand until Thursday and Friday come. Stock contracts can be very volatile from Monday to Thursday however, once the big wigs have made there money during the start of the week by the end of there week any smart person will pull there money out of those contracts and secure their gains. I will come back to revisit this come Friday. SHORTTYYYY SHORT SHORT
AMEX:SPYShort
by Courtneyd
S&P EMAs at Historical Critical PointCME_MINI:ES1! So I opened the chart at the weekend and flicked through the time frames and upon punching the Weekly I noticed the 21EMA and the 89EMAs were pretty tight. I decided the rest of the morning looking through the historical relationship of these two EMAs. It turns out that each time the 21EMA has come down to the 89EMA, there has been a violent reaction. In general, when there are moderate to minimal macros effecting the markets, this reaction represents a strong opportunity to long. In fact, the 21EMA has never dipped below the 89EMA and recovered until months to years later. On the flip side, on the two occasions the 21EMA did dip below the 89EMA, was in 2001 and 2008...two very significant moments in market history. I also noted that once the break happens the S&P tends to bottom at around 40%-50% of that breaking point. If we were to use today's valuation, a 45% drop from today is around 2200. That is also the bottom of the COVID crash i.e. where the real market was going to be trading before infinite stimulus was provided by the Fed. I found this interesting as it seems in these troubling times and with a 'nuclear winter' around the corner in Europe, there is a real macro concern for markets. I'm leaning bearish and I think this rally will fail like every rally this year and lead the 21EMA below the 89EMA. Obviously, I react to the chart and should there be a strong reaction off the touch upwards, I will be flipping bullish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Zeahl_Capital
2
S&P Short Term ATH?The sell off that started in December 2021 and January 2022 was thought of the "crash" that most logical analyst and economist are waiting for. It was illogical for markets not only recover the March 2020 sell off but set a new ATH during a year which saw the largest unemployment event also a pandemic and recession. The rally we know was Fed induced stimulus through QE corporate bond buying. The day the Fed announced tapering, rate hikes, and shrinking balance sheet is when the markets started selling. It wasn't ANY other reason except this. A market fueled by Easy Money will not continue to rally if the very things that fueled it are taken away. The rallies we have been witnessing are fueled by Corporate Buy Backs. In fact, according to Bank of America data, Retail Investors and Institutional Investors are still net sellers. This rally will be short lived. The economic data is still worse than expected and getting worse. BUT .. it seems that we will see a new ATH for the S&P500 before the actual crash happens. The Nasdaq should not make a new ATH, but the Dow has a great possibility it will. We could see a Double-Top followed by the crash or a new ATH. A conservative 35% fall would put the S&P in the low 3,000s.
AMEX:SPYLong
by WorldEconomics
5