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VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / COMPRESSION / DIVERGENCE / PUTOVERCALLDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included an update on a MACRO analysis of VIX VOLATILITY CYCLES. The creation of a set of new cycles is marked when VIX finds a new floor of support. POINTS: 1. Deviations have been adequately adjusted for VIX with a 7 Point difference between CHANNELS. 2. Price Action is currently resting at NEW FLOOR of 19 & Price Action is consolidating. 3. 5 YEAR TREND LINE IS APPROACHING MONTHLY PRICE ACTION FLOOR. 3. NO RECESSION AFTER 1998 HAS EVER COME TO AN END WITHOUT VIX FIRST SPIKING TO 40 OR 45 AT LEAST. RSI: There is in fact a lot to be said for RSI as it rests roughly below the 50 Point average which would signal that RSI is set to flip into Oversold territory. RSI must reach the 30 Point average in the coming weeks or anything above the 30 Point average & rising could signal a divergence occurring between ascending RSI LEVELS & CONSOLIDATING PRICE ACTION WHICH CAN MAKE FOR SOME VIOLENT VOLATILITY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MACD: As of now MACD is resting at an average oversold level of -2.0 but is signaling a move to the upside in coming weeks. MAIN POINTS OF CONTROL: 1. RSI DIVERENCE OCCURS AS RSI RISES & PRICE ACTION CONSOLIDATES. 2. MACD FLIPS INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY. 3. A BREAK OF 21 POINTS FOR PRICE ACTION CAN BE INDICATIVE OF FURTHER UPSIDE FOR VIX IN THIS SCENARIO. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX CBOE:VIX
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
Possible Head and Shoulder forming on SPYWhile this isn't a textbook example of a H&S in terms of symmetry, failure to close above previous high would create a convincing example of a H&S. With the most recent jobs report, the 25bps hike in May has become a stronger possibility. With CPI being released next Wednesday, this upcoming week could give a more positive indication on direction over the medium term. Currently markets need to prove whether they are in a bear market rally or truly entering another bull phase. But the likelihood of the latter remains a lower probability in consideration of current economic conditions. While unemployment gives the indication of a strong economy, this is historically the last indicator to shift direction before recessions begin. Markets historically find their bottoms after rate hike cycles reverse, which usually aligns with the further deterioration of economic conditions. Historically April is a good month for equities, which may continue to play out. Upcoming earnings will play a large role in the medium term outlook for equities. CPI is projected to drop to 5.2%, which even if this meets expectations is still a ways away from the feds 2% goal. This could indicate that the two scenarios ahead are that either credit tightens enough to work to bring inflation down further, which will cause more stress on the economy, corporate profits and consumers. Or this event doesn't have a substantial impact in which rates will need to stay elevated for a longer duration than the market is currently forecasting. Either scenario carries a higher degree of risk to the down side for markets as the former makes a recession a higher probability and the latter would require markets to re-adjust forecasts. The alternative is that inflation drops significantly below forecast, beating expectations and the fed may have a higher likelihood of pausing the hiking schedule in their May meeting. If this were to happen on the upcoming report, the challenge would then be to review future reports to see if this trend continues or if higher oil prices cause inflation to stick at a certain level. Which could then still require the same outcome of higher rates for longer. The scenario where inflation keeps falling towards the feds target before the end of the year, credit does not continue to tighten and unemployment remains low as a result is the least likely scenario in my opinion. This is the most appropriate set of conditions that would be required for markets to continue higher. The risk to the downside over the medium to long-term is greater in my opinion because of the implications of rising unemployment. If credit conditions tighten, money becomes harder to access and as a result unemployment rises, even if rates are cut as a result of these conditions, in this scenario inflation may still be elevated, and retail investors would need access to capital to cover job losses. This could weigh heavily on risk assets, equities and housing. Its not out of the question that markets can continue to rise, it just appears to be the least likely scenario. For this reason I am positioned more defensively and will continue to sell into rallies. If these levels break and assets rally higher, there is enough volatility in the market to find a good entry should conditions offer more clarity or give better reasons to enter a long term position in equities.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CharacterZero
Head and Shoulders forming on the dailyUsing Patterns and other TA I believe the market will follow one of my two paths to retest the high on the right shoulder before continuing down to complete the pattern. I also used other TA to confirm what I'm seeing on this chart. I try to make my charting simple that others can looks and be like oh yeah that makes sense. Am I always right? Heck no... Not to toot my horn but I did just recently call the bitcoin blastoff just before it happened so I think my charting is OK. Look under my other ideas... you will find it... Even some comments like are you crazy...why would it blast off here...and like a day or two later it did. Will it continue to go up and test the high now or drop before trying again later? I guess next week we will find out. Have a good extended weekend! Note: I only use public indicators and TA tools to make my charts. Nothing is private or custom.
SP:SPXShort
by TheUniverse618
2
Bearish Sells OFFS at 411It's been a great show spy . Every time it hit 411 it just suddenly sells! But why? Because you have to study and realize that there are points of support and points of RESISTANCE. If price hits resistance more than once and fails to blow throw you should know what happens next. If you CANT tell me the future all you have to do with most charts is replay the past and trading view actually has a replay chart option in which you can do just that. Please pay attention and just look at the EMAS they are telling a story very Time they cross downward. google angel and death cross. @ContraryTrader is one of the best on here I advise any on looking at this to follow him and learn.
AMEX:SPY
by Courtneyd
DJI Dow headed for a correction.. More pain ahead...If we look at the DJI we can see that on the chart the current price is jumping WAY outside the upper Bollinger Band and the 50 MA is actually above the midline of the Bollinger Band. That can signal a couple things. 1st the pricing being so far beyond the upper band means is due for a sharp downward correction towards the Midline at best and to the bottom band at worst. 2nd, with the 50 MA being above the midline of the Bollinger Band can signal that the local trend support is actually now future resistance. The trend of the bands has the midline the more likely of the 2 targets and that would put the dow in a local down trend in the short term. Based on what the chart is showing me right now, I would say 31.5k Dow is way more likely to be hit before 34k dow. Depending on how long the correction last, it could be a catalyst for a bigger down trend with a much larger correction still to come later this year. Fed rate decisions, earnings data, lay offs, and a few more international trade issues like Yuan settlements, will play a large factor in the future larger correction timing.
TVC:DJIShort
by TheStockMarketSniper
4
Bullish til $407.50 then looking to short the HnS patternThe AD is causing an ascending triangle on the 2hr chart I'm forecasting here, so give me a little rope. The AD is ascending (ascending triangle technically) to $407-$408 area. It's likely to retest the 3rd leg of the Eliott wave which was sold off. This rejection, can cause a bearish Head and shoulders pattern. look at wave 1 as the left shoulder, wave 3 as the head, and this final push in attempt to invalidate wave 3 which will likely cause a bearish head and shoulders pattern. Tomorrows FOMC meeting/discussion is going to be more volatile than normal. Imho, both bulls/bears should be able to eat. I wont take a short position til after $407.50 is touched.. Look at the market heavyweights TSLA, AAPL, SPY (obviously), for clues but will also be looking at $uvxy, $faz, $tlt for additional clues. so seeing this now, I likely wont beat up futures... I'll just be monitoring and posting some updates to the chart. Im both a bull/bear when I need to be..
AMEX:SPYLong
by moneyflow_trader
33
Possibilities of Spy to 360 1DObserving the daily chart, it appears that a head and shoulders formation has emerged, which may indicate significant changes on the horizon that have yet to be disclosed. This channel has persisted since October of last year, suggesting that a potential shift in market dynamics may be underway. Additionally, if this head and shoulders pattern holds true, it could trigger a significant bearish trend with potential retests of support levels around 360 and possibly even down to 320. Powell's recent tendency to keep his announcements brief and to the point also warrants attention, as it may reflect a cautious approach to managing the economy. As always, it's important to stay vigilant and stay informed as events unfold.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Adventure_Joe
SPY close analysis, 3/23/2023SPY opened today within my "interesting zone" — an area with substantial gaps up down/left/right and a place where I had no idea what to expect. For a moment, it looked like we might actually break out! But a swift and final rejection of this zone on the last 65m seals the deal for me to sum up a bearish thesis. All signs point to more down as we seek liquidity and support below. The natural stopping point is the confluence of old demand zones, a diagonal demand zone connecting the major bottoms since the low was set, and the long term peak resistance line dating back to the ATH. This makes too much sense not to call it. In summary: Short SPY, target 387.6, invalidation above 400.
AMEX:SPYShort
by upslidedown
$SPY on 1hour Pullback/ Quad witching prediction$SPY on 1hour Pullback $SPY to potentially touch next target of new support $387.48 $SPY did touch previous support marked on my chart from yesterday afternoons charting as noted of 1st support. I do think spy has potential to still pull back more especially since today is what we consider quad witching if you were in the stock market around 2020 or before. Many may know it as now effectively as "triple witching" which occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Equity trading volume tends to rise on these days and is typically heaviest during the last hour of trading as traders adjust their portfolios. I am expecting a red close. What are your thoughts? Comment below. P.s. Happy St.Patricks day traders! :) -Kelly
AMEX:SPY
by angelbaetrades
BTC SHORT, BEAR'S LAST STANDA lot of resistance at ~24.5k, coming from a long-term channel since the ATH, and the local high of ~25k in mid-Aug. Shorting given a recent decline in volume and OI slightly declining at these prices. . However, upon doing so one must consider the bull/bear case that may play out. BULL : Nov. 15k was the bottom, and we may either be in a new bull market cycle or still within a bull market that started in 2018 on the way to 100k by EOY. For this to be the case, we must hold ~18.5k-19k, with no daily closes below it, and allow a re-entry, followed by a smash over 25k. Once done, bears have a final stand of ~27k which currently follows the 12-month MA on the BTC spot index chart. If we close above the 52-week MA, the bear market is over. VWAP lines represent areas of resistance if the bull case plays out. There is some evidence of a parabolic move possibly playing out thanks to TechDev_52's tweet of a correlation between BTC and Global Liquidity (CN10Y/DXY) where "Every ATH-setting move began after CN10Y/DXY closed above its 3W 20MA" with every "major impulse topped *at most* 12 months later". So, at worst a parabolic run could come by to stop by Nov. 2023 Failure with that brings the bear case... BEAR : Bottom not in given macro conditions and projections on SP500, which could be correlated with BTC. 24k strong resistance, we correct past the CME gap at 20k, play around with 19k followed by a sudden close under it, which can bring us to 14k, maybe even 12.5k. There is a minor "NEUTRAL" case where a double bottom could form ~14.5-15k, where we do get a bull re-entry as noted on the chart, break 25k, and then get slapped hard at 27k-34k, all the way back down to 24k followed by 14-16k, and then trigger another bull re-entry similar to how 2019-2020 played out or even back in 2015 that had a double bottom. I was wrong on the last BTC trade as the trend changed on Jan. 12th following a possible short-term regime change around EOY 2022, be it market participants entering back in after selling off in Q4 for tax reasons, macro liquidity flows, etc. Overall, I think we'll range for a while between 27k-14k, followed by another explosive move on the low end of that range toward 30k. I don't know how long, maybe months. Trades: Short E: 23.1k SL: 26k TP:20k, 18k, 15k (likely close), 12.5k Long E:20k SL:17.8k TP:25k, 27k, 32k SPY SPY short has not changed. I could see SPY targeting ~420 and then starting a new downtrend, SL adjusted a bit higher to 427. I will say at these prices, both BTC and SPY have growing voices of bears and bulls. A lot of long hedgers at $SPY since the Oct. and late Dec. bottom, and on late Dec. for BTC. Break those levels and we're in for extreme fear. Q1 2023 volatility could still spike if geopolitics play out concerning control over oil in the middle east/eastern Europe if EV infrastructure is proven incapable of sustaining itself at scale by 2030.
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands
VIX: MICRO VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINTS OF CONTROL / MACD & RSI DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MICRO ANALYSIS of the VIX INDEX which represents volatility in the overall US MARKET. This is a short term play for this week based on micro volatility cycles. POINTS: 1. Deviation in critical thresholds is 4 points a small adjustment from previous VIX charts published as volatility adheres to this more often. 2. 23 Point serves as critical support for VIX. 3. Current Trend = Symmetrical Triangle Formation 2nd Phase 4. Overlapping Green Dotted Lines = Market Open 5. Overlapping Red Dotted Lines = Market Close IMO: In my opinion whether or not current setup becomes invalidated I do not see current price action falling below 23 POINTS is the POINT OF CONTROL TO THE DOWNSIDE while 31 POINTS is the POINT OF CONTROL TO THE UPSIDE. MACD: Current MACD levels continue to fall and are bound to flip into negative territory further confirming current setup that needs some pullback for VIX. RSI: Current RSI levels are dropping and no current signs of DIVERGENCE that would indicate a sudden flip to positive territory. SCENARIO #1: VIX price action agrees with current setup & respects symmetrical triangle setup and bounces off 25 in coming session & precedes to the upside to break 29. SCENARIO #2: VIX price action disagrees with current symmetrical triangle setup and breaks below 25 & faces possible bounce at 23 instead. FULL CHART LINK:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/UUCv2fGk/ TVC:VIX AMEX:UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
US02Y: BOND MELTDOWN / 4.00% CROSS / MACD CONVERGENCE / RSIDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. POINTS: 1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with it's lowest 1% points. 2. Overlapping Orange Line represents ES1! a US Market Future. 3. Dotted Green Lines represent continuous downward momentum in past Bear Markets (2002 & 2008). 4. Bubbles overlapping dotted green lines represent initial break of supporting bond percentage %. IMO: In my opinion the most concerning factor to take into consideration when it comes to current bond positioning is the STEEP RISE IN PERCENTAGE especially when the overall US market momentum is tied to BOND PERCENTAGE during both RISES & FALLS & the STEEPER THE INCLINE THE STEEPER THE DECLINE can become. MACD: Notice a complete meltdown of Bonds when MACD confirms convergence to MEDIAN & eventually breaks past median and falls into into negative territory. RSI: Notice that unlike in other recessions RSI levels have seen more consistent exposure to MEDIAN of 50. But as of lately from a MACRO perspective that is not the case as we have seen current RSI levels linger around 70 or above in EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY. SCENARIO #1: In a very BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through a complete free fall. SCENARIO #2: In a less BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through an extended consolidation phase with PERCENTAGE LINGERING ABOVE 4%. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:US02Y
TVC:US02YShort
by DGSTBROKERACC