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$SPY on 1hour Pullback/ Quad witching prediction$SPY on 1hour Pullback $SPY to potentially touch next target of new support $387.48 $SPY did touch previous support marked on my chart from yesterday afternoons charting as noted of 1st support. I do think spy has potential to still pull back more especially since today is what we consider quad witching if you were in the stock market around 2020 or before. Many may know it as now effectively as "triple witching" which occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Equity trading volume tends to rise on these days and is typically heaviest during the last hour of trading as traders adjust their portfolios. I am expecting a red close. What are your thoughts? Comment below. P.s. Happy St.Patricks day traders! :) -Kelly
AMEX:SPY
by angelbaetrades
BTC SHORT, BEAR'S LAST STANDA lot of resistance at ~24.5k, coming from a long-term channel since the ATH, and the local high of ~25k in mid-Aug. Shorting given a recent decline in volume and OI slightly declining at these prices. . However, upon doing so one must consider the bull/bear case that may play out. BULL : Nov. 15k was the bottom, and we may either be in a new bull market cycle or still within a bull market that started in 2018 on the way to 100k by EOY. For this to be the case, we must hold ~18.5k-19k, with no daily closes below it, and allow a re-entry, followed by a smash over 25k. Once done, bears have a final stand of ~27k which currently follows the 12-month MA on the BTC spot index chart. If we close above the 52-week MA, the bear market is over. VWAP lines represent areas of resistance if the bull case plays out. There is some evidence of a parabolic move possibly playing out thanks to TechDev_52's tweet of a correlation between BTC and Global Liquidity (CN10Y/DXY) where "Every ATH-setting move began after CN10Y/DXY closed above its 3W 20MA" with every "major impulse topped *at most* 12 months later". So, at worst a parabolic run could come by to stop by Nov. 2023 Failure with that brings the bear case... BEAR : Bottom not in given macro conditions and projections on SP500, which could be correlated with BTC. 24k strong resistance, we correct past the CME gap at 20k, play around with 19k followed by a sudden close under it, which can bring us to 14k, maybe even 12.5k. There is a minor "NEUTRAL" case where a double bottom could form ~14.5-15k, where we do get a bull re-entry as noted on the chart, break 25k, and then get slapped hard at 27k-34k, all the way back down to 24k followed by 14-16k, and then trigger another bull re-entry similar to how 2019-2020 played out or even back in 2015 that had a double bottom. I was wrong on the last BTC trade as the trend changed on Jan. 12th following a possible short-term regime change around EOY 2022, be it market participants entering back in after selling off in Q4 for tax reasons, macro liquidity flows, etc. Overall, I think we'll range for a while between 27k-14k, followed by another explosive move on the low end of that range toward 30k. I don't know how long, maybe months. Trades: Short E: 23.1k SL: 26k TP:20k, 18k, 15k (likely close), 12.5k Long E:20k SL:17.8k TP:25k, 27k, 32k SPY SPY short has not changed. I could see SPY targeting ~420 and then starting a new downtrend, SL adjusted a bit higher to 427. I will say at these prices, both BTC and SPY have growing voices of bears and bulls. A lot of long hedgers at $SPY since the Oct. and late Dec. bottom, and on late Dec. for BTC. Break those levels and we're in for extreme fear. Q1 2023 volatility could still spike if geopolitics play out concerning control over oil in the middle east/eastern Europe if EV infrastructure is proven incapable of sustaining itself at scale by 2030.
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands
VIX: MICRO VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINTS OF CONTROL / MACD & RSI DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MICRO ANALYSIS of the VIX INDEX which represents volatility in the overall US MARKET. This is a short term play for this week based on micro volatility cycles. POINTS: 1. Deviation in critical thresholds is 4 points a small adjustment from previous VIX charts published as volatility adheres to this more often. 2. 23 Point serves as critical support for VIX. 3. Current Trend = Symmetrical Triangle Formation 2nd Phase 4. Overlapping Green Dotted Lines = Market Open 5. Overlapping Red Dotted Lines = Market Close IMO: In my opinion whether or not current setup becomes invalidated I do not see current price action falling below 23 POINTS is the POINT OF CONTROL TO THE DOWNSIDE while 31 POINTS is the POINT OF CONTROL TO THE UPSIDE. MACD: Current MACD levels continue to fall and are bound to flip into negative territory further confirming current setup that needs some pullback for VIX. RSI: Current RSI levels are dropping and no current signs of DIVERGENCE that would indicate a sudden flip to positive territory. SCENARIO #1: VIX price action agrees with current setup & respects symmetrical triangle setup and bounces off 25 in coming session & precedes to the upside to break 29. SCENARIO #2: VIX price action disagrees with current symmetrical triangle setup and breaks below 25 & faces possible bounce at 23 instead. FULL CHART LINK:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/UUCv2fGk/ TVC:VIX AMEX:UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
$SPY Why We Will Continue Down / Bear Market Not FinishedWhat is Federal Funds Rate? The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other overnight on an uncollateralized basis. It is the interest rate at which banks can borrow or lend money in the federal funds market. The Federal Reserve uses the federal funds rate as a tool to implement monetary policy and control inflation. By raising or lowering the federal funds rate, the Federal Reserve can influence the overall level of interest rates in the economy, thereby impacting economic growth and inflation. How Does Federal Funds Rate Affect The Economy? The Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can have a significant impact on the overall economy. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it makes borrowing money more expensive for banks, which in turn makes borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses. This can slow down economic growth by making it more difficult for companies to expand and for consumers to purchase big-ticket items like homes and cars. On the other hand, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate, it makes borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic growth by making it easier for businesses to expand and for consumers to purchase big-ticket items. Lowering the federal funds rate can also help to combat inflation by making it less expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can help to keep prices stable. The Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can also affect the stock market, currency exchange rate, and bond market. In summary, the Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can have a significant impact on the economy by affecting interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. What is the Projection of Federal Funds Rate In 2023? Due to Ukraine and COVID, this has led to a historic rise in interest rates. This means that borrowing costs are increased, saving becomes more attractive/less spending, and stock prices may decrease/bonds favored. Markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates again on February 1, 2023, likely by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%-4.75%. However, there’s a reasonable chance the Fed opts for a larger 0.5 percentage point hike. Hope this helps.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Smarter_Trades
15
US02Y: BOND MELTDOWN / 4.00% CROSS / MACD CONVERGENCE / RSIDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. POINTS: 1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with it's lowest 1% points. 2. Overlapping Orange Line represents ES1! a US Market Future. 3. Dotted Green Lines represent continuous downward momentum in past Bear Markets (2002 & 2008). 4. Bubbles overlapping dotted green lines represent initial break of supporting bond percentage %. IMO: In my opinion the most concerning factor to take into consideration when it comes to current bond positioning is the STEEP RISE IN PERCENTAGE especially when the overall US market momentum is tied to BOND PERCENTAGE during both RISES & FALLS & the STEEPER THE INCLINE THE STEEPER THE DECLINE can become. MACD: Notice a complete meltdown of Bonds when MACD confirms convergence to MEDIAN & eventually breaks past median and falls into into negative territory. RSI: Notice that unlike in other recessions RSI levels have seen more consistent exposure to MEDIAN of 50. But as of lately from a MACRO perspective that is not the case as we have seen current RSI levels linger around 70 or above in EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY. SCENARIO #1: In a very BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through a complete free fall. SCENARIO #2: In a less BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through an extended consolidation phase with PERCENTAGE LINGERING ABOVE 4%. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:US02Y
TVC:US02YShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
SPY S&P 500 ETF Options ChainI have monitored the options chain of SPY in the past 2 months and I noticed some big Puts positions that are recurring, regardless of the price: 2023-3-17 expiration date $386 strike price ($2.53 premium now) I don`t know that it has something to to with the higher than expected inflation, continuation of the interest rate hikes, the P/E ratio of 21.80 for SPX (quite high), or the war in Ukraine. But options traders are quite bearish on SPY S&P 500 ETF for the upcoming month. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
3
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price PredictionOn March 7th we have the Fed Chair Powell Testimony, that could reveal that the FOMC is going to hike the interest rates for a longer period of time, and maybe give us a clue if it`s the case for a 50bps increase after the next meeting. On March 10th we have the Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate that could also fuel a potential 50bps hike if they come better than expected. In this context, my price target for SPY is $386 by Mid-April. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
(WARNNG) Extreme Bear Volume in $XLF, Shorting next hourly LH- QQQ double topped with Tuesday top, had a 15m bull flag during consolidation with no red flags until mid morning. - XLF increasing bear volume with zero bounce and very notable big money exiting. Fear creeped into the market - VIX up 20% - QQQ went from lead bull to bear when all sectors starting to drop at the same time after XLFs huge drop. dragging SPY down too. - lots of negative news and sentiment regarding banks and how much they dropped SI down over 80% in just two days. - Bears now in total control. - huge drop in XBI & IWM as well. SMH might go from lead bull to lead bear tomorrow looking to short the next hourly or 15m lower high pretty much almost on any bounce if we get a bullish reaction to data tomorrow during PM will be shorting that bounce.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading
SP500, why you should be carefull on the current rally.SP500 / Multi-Time-Frame. AUDUSD / 4H Dear Traders, I warmly welcome you to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis on SP500 pair. From a weekly viewpoint, in my opinion, SPY looks remarkably bearish . A Double top formation with a previous high on the monthly time frame, and the downward trend has already begun as seen from last month's close. Everything appears to be pointing towards the onset of the next bear move. Currently, on the daily timeframe , we are experiencing a pull-back to the Broken support that might turn into resistance. Therefore, I am patiently waiting for my sell zone to be reached and will be looking on lower time frames for a good entry point in case I get my entry creteria validated. Trade safely, Trader Leo.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Leo-btm
17
$SPY PUTS If we held above $400 it would signal a larger move up. Likelihood of that happening is quite low in my opinion. With a big week of low expected earnings, possible negative news coming from Powell, and many companies looking lacklustre with weak guidance, I expect that we can see a strong rejection of the $400 level. Closed one put already from $399 to $396 and will gradually re-open a few Puts for March/April expiration between $397-$399 Looking for a TP level around $370 or at the .618 fib line. Not because it would be a bottom, but a good level to take profit as we approach expiration and where we might see a possible bounce. Stop loss would be $400 as I don't expect us to head back above this level. However, if we do, the risk/reward ratio is worth it. Good luck everyone.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bishopknight
2
ES1!: RALLIES & FALLS / UPDATE / POINT OF CONTROL: 4000 & 3950DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis of ES1! a future INDEX on the daily timeframe. POINTS: 1. Deviation of 250 points would justify placement of SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. Pennant Formation 3. Current CORRECTION FALL is roughly 5.55% falling short by nearly 5% when compared to other CORRECTION PHASES. RSI: Since the inception of the current bear market price action has only held one time when RSI is at a PIVOT POINT and ready to enter OVERSOLD TERRITORY. MACD: If MACD is pulled into OVERSOLD territory or anywhere past it's MEDIAN OF 0.00. This will be a strong indicator that price action will fail to hold onto its current channel of 4050 - 3800. And would essentially mean price action will retest past channel of 3800 - 3550. POINT OF CONTROL: Price action must remain above LEVEL 1 SUPPORT of 4000 & LEVEL 2 SUPPORT of 3950. SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario we would come to see price action bounce at 3950 then followed by a move toward 4150 before breaking pennant formation. (Not the safest bet since this scenario would VIOLATE RSI'S TREND FROM THE PAST YEAR) SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario we come to see a break below 3950 that would leave to PRICE ACTION not seeing support until 3800. (This would fall in line with what current indicators are signaling) FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com CME_MINI:ES1!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DGSTBROKERACC
Spy Supply/Demand Zones with Support/Resistance.AMEX:SPY Here shown are the current S/D and S/R levels on Spy. There is also an imbalance area in the middle of the chart that can be used as a support/resistance zone however, this seems to be more of a resistance level given the candles and wicks and how they set up right below this level. The candles are seemingly setting up for an aggressive leg up as that is the only way they can break this resistance and make it become a support again. Hope this chart helps you traders and remember me when you get your first AP. Remember the AP doesn't lie...
AMEX:SPY
by MuhWhipski
SPX Feb21 - Mar6 TATA are expectations up to ~ March 6 based of avg downtrend duration for the last 4 drops. Note the following 1) Monthly Trend : Bullish -- note the trend, support line (solid) and channel, resistance line (dashed) 2) Week Trend : Bearish-- note the lines, same as above, but red. a break in trend = good chance of reversal. a break in channel = strong movement 3) Break in the Monthly bullish trend, retouched and dropped back down as confirmation of new Bear movement 4) RSI @ 42 -> slightly bearish market on 2h 🪟 5) EMA for 9, 20, 50. Again, TA is 38 Bars. 9 crossed both 20 & 50 sharply, waiting for 20 to cross as well for better bearish confirmation 6) Supports @ 4060, 4010 (Key Supp for weekly), 3877, 3764 (Key supp for Monthly) Anything can happen. Tuesday / Wednesday could be wild or just more consolidation these last 2 weeks has been consolidation, so a blow can happen soon
SP:SPXShort
by ENYS_LUUN