Going Long SPYPrice is at the major HL on the daily and as long as price doesnt break it we are still in an overall uptrend and this is your best buying opportunity. if price does break tho, then you can expect it to about $314 next
Spysignals
9/23 UPDATED BEAR THESIS $316-317 next stopKey points
The DXY may bounce on resistance as shown
Oil may bounce on support as shown
Bonds remain unchanged as shown
Need to gauge Asia's reaction from our sell off today for confirmation on tomorrows trade
For those that don't understand intermarket relationships. From left to right and can start at any point.
Currency ------> commodities -----------> bonds -----------> Equity -------> currency --------> commodities ---------> bonds -----------> equity.
Huge markets reacting to one another, all interconnected, all correlated globally.
Given the circumstances, Spy is sitting in no-mans land right now with a straight shot to 316-317, but given that the DXY and OIL is looking to bounce off support/resistance means its bullish for SPY(meaning a relief bounce is probable, but will only be able to tell at tomorrows open, we need to see how asian markets will react to our sell off today)
The Dollar had a textbook breakout to the upside. When the Dollar rises, equity falls.(not all the time). When Oil loses value ----> spy loses value)
My chart merely shows that OIL is near a support line and that Dollar is near a resistance = Probability of Spy having a relief bounce.
The Risk vs reward is still heavily favored to the bears.
Short/medium term Bearish thesisSeptember 28th Resistance/support will intersect and we will see downwards movement into new territory.
The risk vs reward for shorting is much greater than going long at the moment.
Short term Bearish/neutral
Medium term Bearish
Long term Bullish
I believe we are setting up another Jan 2018 OR OCT 2018.
Red arrows indicating heavy resistance
Red Arrows resistance
Blue diagnal line - current downwards trend
White line- Major resistance
Red line - resistance
Orange line - weaker resistance
Green line - March - september bullish trend.
Green line intersects with white line on a catalyst day (fed speaking).
We are now in a trend reversal, but need to keep an eye on these levels.
My General view of SPY
In my philosophical view, humans tend to always need an "answer" for everything in life. Historically we created gods to explain the unexplainable. That's not to say that i am an atheist in my religious view, nor am i trying to make this a religious discussion, I'm purely commenting on human nature. We are a curious species and we learned to not take "no" or "i don't know" as an answer from a very early age of our ancestry.
If you look around you, it feels we "must" have an answer for everything in life, including the unexplainable (consciousness). Scientific people call it "coincidence", religious people call it a "miracle from god". To advance in our life we need to see these two groups of people from a third persons perspective, and understand both sides. It doesn't always have to be black or white, right or wrong. It's okay "not to know", as long as you are the path to enlightenment through spiritual or scientific, that's all that matters.
I am only a man, born into this world trying to make sense of something insensible for my time.
So why is my philosophical view important in the way that I trade? I see many traders nowadays pointing to the news as an "answer" for their directional bias in the markets. Trump said this, trump said that, markets go up, markets go down. The media business sells you the answers, and you buy them because its encoded in our ancestral genes to buy them. To reach a new level of consciousness, you would need to understand the words. " I am only a man, and too stupid of a species to understand anything but." We are a mere spec in the timeline of "(life?)".
My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical analysis standpoint (sometimes with the exception of federal news.)
Before trying to understand the way that i trade, you would need to understand my philosophical standpoint, and to also assume that nowadays, there is a gap between the real economy and the stock market. The stock market ≠(does not equal) the economy. You would also need to understand the options market and that algorithms created by market makers are always trying to stay delta neutral hedging their positions. And finally the last thing you must understand is intermarket analysis to fully understand my trading view.
So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinionated rational/irrational decision to sell or buy. Do I know the formula? No I don't, and that's okay. What i do know, is the results of the formula at work. Sometimes its easy to spot when live trading, sometimes it can only be spot with hindsight bias, sometimes the answer is never found, AND THATS O.K.
For example, i don't see where or why "2+2" is happening, but i keep seeing "4" as the answer.
So if we can all come to the agreement that we are trading against algorithms, we could also say that we are trading against logic. In this case it is MUCH easier to trade against logic than against emotional traders because every move in the market is based on a formula instead of being based on a opinion based rational/irrational decision to sell or buy.
TL;DR We are not trading based off psychology any longer, we are trading based off logic. (algorithms & formulas) My thesis is based purely on objective data with a technical standpoint (with the exception of federal news.)
AMEX:SPY
Multiple resistances/support areas for the S&P.
We have always respected the white resistance since the 2008 financial crisis. The solid green line in the middle is what i consider the "goldilocks" zone. A habitable zone in which "fair price" has been achieved in the context of the uptrend we are seeing since the 2008 financial crisis.
In conclusion, to not make my first post too long i will write some pointers in how i trade.
I trade Spx products vs volatility
I trade Spx products vs forex
I trade Spx products vs bonds
I trade Spx products vs commodities
I trade Spx products logically ( I heavily disagree with EWT methodology)
I trade Spx products using intermarket relationships
I use historical resistance/supports in all markets to gauge activity in what i'm trading.
As time goes on i will post many charts of what i wrote above, and too make things less confusing i will explain as i go.
SPY - SP500 ETF s/r analysisHello traders,
Description of the analysis:
SPY support zones ideal for timing long positions (gray). Trade what you understand, trade carefully and sparingly according to the business plan.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (over $4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob
SPY Breakout Spy is recovering from the good ole corona's leaving us with a huge opportunity right here. IF spy breaks above 340 we can easily hit 350 within a month after the break.
I got myself some September calls for spy and will hold.
SPDR(SPY)/S&P 500 ETF - SHORT TERM LONGSome description:
A) A break below is a short term sell signal targeting 3032/30 - 3025, perhaps as far as 3015. The first resistance is at 3100but shorts need stops above 3120.
B) A break above the 3156 high this week targets 3160 and 3185, perhaps as far as 3200.
Good luck trading!
SPY Looking strongSPY has had a few dips in the past, all however have led to the continuation of a bull run, recently price has dipped, price will most likely continue trading against the 1 fib line for some time before the next dip. Green fractal indicates continuation of this trend.
Descending wedge and bullish divergences on the 1H and 2HFalling wedge and bullish divergences on the RSI. In general this should play out to the upside as much as it pains me to say it. The RSI divergence starts to wash out at about the 4H and is definitely not there on the daily. AND keep in mind SPX and ES did not fill the gap today. There's a dislocation between the SPY and the other two based on the dividend they paid last week.
Still net short on a swing trade, and not holding a long over the weekend. But, since the market has the memory of a goldfish and we open higher i will hedge accordingly.
