Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 4th WK MAR 2024Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 4th WK MAR 2024
> BULLISH 📈 CORRECT
Closed Price: 521.21
Target Price: 523 | Strike Price: 245.58 MAR28 24'
Upper Range: 543
Lower Range: 504
Spysignalsnewsletter
SPY - Expecting Local GrowthCorrectional movement failed to break the local support, we expect resumption of buying to resistance.
If you like the idea, mark it. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and make yourself and your loved ones happy.
BOUNCE TIME (CHECK MY HISTORY)SPY has been getting absolutely shellacked as I predicted. Closed a bunch of my shorts now I am adding some short term longs. Now SPY has approached a key support level at 390. You can see in the past couple months 390 has acted as support and resistance. Now its time to do its job as support. As you can see I don't expect much of a rally but am expecting a short lived rally. That is when I will begin adding back to the short side. Not financial advice just my opinion.
SPY Price Target for this monthI am targeting a lower low at the $358 support by the end of this month, due to the CPI report and the start of the Q2 earnings season with revisions.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPYIt's bear market territory whenever we see more than 20% retracement from ALL-TIME HIGH. The first retracement from an all-time high is always 33% (that's almost 320 for SPY)
I have made a technical analysis on how to play the bear market. The two red lines I have outlined can help traders when to short and when to go long. I'm going to swing shares of SPY (long/short).
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 10,2022
As CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM EST, tomorrow is a big day for traders and investors. Make sure not to trade on news or assumptions. Today we saw a massive sell-off at the end hour of the market trading session. There will be a bounce upward tomorrow for correction. The critical level of resistance, for now, is 405.18-405.71, and the main one is 407-408. I'm saying this because on multiple timeframes like 15m,30m,45,1hr, and 2hr, and RSI is sitting on 30, which means an oversold area. Don't get trapped in following the trend but wait for confirmation to short on the resistance area(to be on the safe side).
Moreover, looking at VIX, it got rejected at the resistance level of 26.25. If it breaks the resistance tomorrow, opening a short position might be a good idea. Another scenario is that it cools off in the area of 25.50 from their excellent idea to open a safe short position. This is just my opinion but looking at the sell-off volume was a sign of continuation of the sell-off.
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 2,2022
Based on today's economic news:
ISM Manufacturing (Apr) 56.1 vs 54.5 Expected
JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 11.4M vs 11.35M Expected
The market was up the first 30 minutes of the session, and then after the news, it got rejected on resistance and then bounced back from the support of 407. Also, keep in mind that vix is on a support level of 25.50. If 25 breaks market will go up. If not, SPY will make new lows.
Two Scenario for tomorrow:
-Break below 407 can lead to 398-400
-Break above 413 to 416( I don't think so, but I can be wrong as well)
SPYTODAY SPY HELD BETTER THAN NASDAQ.
Spy is on an uptrend with ascending triangle but can be a possibility of rejection on resistance (398). If SPY gets rejection on resistance, spy sees 380 level again as main support for now.
Two scenarios for tomorrow's game plan:
1st- If rejection on resistance and uptrend breaks, the spy will mostly fall back to the 380 area support level. Puts June 3 strike 390
2nd- If spy Breakthru resistance, then the possibility of 409. Call June 3 strike 405
SPY Game Plan for May 13, 2022
Make sure to observe the 392.50 area as spy resistance for now. If that resistance breaks, we must wait and have patience, then go long and never chase. Overall, spy daily RSI at 30. Significant consideration note to take. But still, plenty of room to go down as RSI is calculated and first, down to 30 can be a fakeout, then 50, fall again back to 30 RSI, which means price movement will be way different and can go down far beyond imagination.
Two Scenario for tomorrow:
First one: Observe the market from 7:00 am-9:30 am EST. If we see a sell of pre-market, then for sure, on market hours, we can touch the resistance of 392.50. then back down again.
Second: If the resistance gets destroyed, wait for the cool off previous resistance to become support and go long from 392-394.
OPTIONS
Look at May 20, 2022, 380 puts if 392.50 area gets rejected and go long when resistance gets denied, then play with May 20, 2022, 405 calls.
SPYToday, we saw a massive sell-off after yesterday's massive rally, but there was an enormous volume at the end of the 15 minutes of the trading session. I see two scenarios tomorrow.
Scenario 1- we might see a dump at the beginning and then upward correction in which the spy will touch the 417-418 area and then back down again.
Scenario 2- We might see a sideway trend as well. 417-418 area, then back down to 410-411 area.
I'm bearish here because the pump didn't last even for a day and nobody bought the dip today. I'm looking for a 340-360 area to go long.
MAy 5,2022 SPY Game plan Yesterday's game plan went fantastic. We are officially in an uptrend (short term) minor correction of a downtrend. We can see a dip at the opening as it needs to cool off for the next leg up. Drips I'm looking at, the levels are 425.66-425.95; if this one slides, then will see 421.78- 422.56. Volume was there, and we saw a massive rally at the end of the day. Make sure you are on the right side of the market. Shorting here should be considered high risk and if you want to short, wait for the trend to break. Playing with calls tomorrow can be fun but make sure to look at the trend always. For now, we are incredibly bullish.
SPY S&P 500 ETF W-Shaped Recovery The SPY S&P 500 ETF wend down after the huge amount of puts that i noticed last week:
Now i am considering a W-Shaped Recovery to $470 by the end of Q2.
The Ukraine invasion was price in at $410 and the interest rates will be lower than expected due to the war.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY dip incomingShowed to be overbought, broke out of resistance with no overbearing candles and only baby candles, I'm expecting a drop to around the 78.60% Fibonacci level
$SPY - END OF BULL RUN? FIRST TARGET $324 $SPXPumping of dollar into the market is done and right now THE MARKET IS INSANE and TIP OF ICEBERG.
This time, it is beyond 2008 crash where the market has to correct more than 70% by end of 2021 - 2022.
After the major dip $324, market will bounce back near to ALL TIME HIGH where the newbies, investors, traders etc will try to catch the falling knife where the market enters into COMPLACENCY phase and then market takes a DEEP CUT.
There are a lot of reasons for this MAJOR & DEEP correction.
Good Luck.
US Market Technicals Ahead (4 Jan – 8 Jan 2021)Markets will face their first major challenge of 2021 as the rapid spread of a new, more contagious coronavirus strain means that economic gains could still be a way off. The December jobs report on upcoming Friday could show that the pace of hiring is slowing down amid renewed pandemic-related restrictions on businesses. Meanwhile, energy traders will be turning their attention to Monday’s OPEC+ meeting where another output boost is on the agenda.
Here is what you need to know to start your week.
S&P 500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) rallied with a modest gain of +1.43% (53 points) during the final week of 2020, closing at an all time high of 3,756. At the current junction, $SPX price action remains within the tight 3% trend channel range highlighted; and there will be expectation of a minor correction in the upcoming week in technical perspective, with $SPX trading near the upper bound resistance of its trend channel. Additionally, a short term price-volume bearish divergence is also been observed.
The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, a break of the lower trendline support.
Top 3 things to watch this week:
1. Vaccine rollout
With U.S. case numbers surging and vaccinations proceeding more slowly than projected Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to enlist veterinarians and combat medics to give out coronavirus vaccinations.
While the U.S. has approved two vaccines, rollout is going more slowly than the government hoped. About 2.8 million Americans received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, falling far short of a 20 million target.
The U.S. is averaging 186,000 cases a day, down from a peak in mid-December of over 218,000 new infections each day. Health officials have warned that cases will likely spike again after holiday gatherings.
2. December jobs report
The first major U.S. data point of 2021 will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers, which could show a loss of momentum in the labor market.
November data already indicated the employment market was losing steam, with 245,000 new jobs added, the fewest in six months. For December, expectations are for an even smaller 100,000 gain.
3. OPEC+ to debate supply vs. demand
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia are to hold a virtual meeting on Monday.
Oil prices ended December with gains in a positive end to a year that saw U.S. futures turn negative for the first time ever in April.
In December OPEC+ held back from plans to boost output by 2 million barrels per day after implementing a record 7.7 million bpd supply cut earlier in the year to shore up prices. Instead, it increased output by 500,000 bpd and agreed that additional monthly adjustments would not exceed that amount.
Russia has indicated that it will support another 500,000 bpd production increase from February, despite concerns from others in the group that it is still too early.
$SPY INDEX TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN | OCT 2020Friday was the quarterly event known as quadruple witching where S&P 500 (SPY - Get Rating) futures, options on those futures, options on individual equities, and single stock futures all expire. In the past, these ‘witching’ days have been characterized by above-average trading volume and increased volatility. But, in the current environment, those are relative terms as both have been elevated for the past few months. Still, expect some wild gyrations, especially as we head into the close today, which could carry over into Monday’s opening as positions get squared away, hedges get established and positions are rebalanced. Data suggests that there are some 90 million options contracts likely to settle in-the-money and approximately $32 billion in index rebalancing, which needs to occur.
~
SPY currently sits above what has proven to be strong support @ $327 which could offer as a decent entry point considering our next support is at $324.
Possible long on a break and hold of resistance @ $332.
Upside targets: $340, $344, $347
Possible Short Entry pn break and hold below $327
Patience will pay, be very patience with these levels.
DotcomJack | Michael Jordan of Stonks
