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SQQQ

NASDAQ Elliot Wave Count - Finally time to short?Okay, I have been calling a top for the last week or so. I posted an idea earlier about a double top in the NDX with lots of charts. Here is a more detailed version of my Elliot Wave analysis and why I think this is the end for the NASDAQ. Sure I could be wrong and feel free to poke holes in it. It is the best guess I have right now and tomorrow something could completely alter this idea, because those pesky hedge funds like to screw us over in the after hour sessions. I use a standard set of fib levels for wave, which is 1.0, 1.618, and 2.0 (waves 1, 3, 5). I make adjustments to wave 5 based on wave 3 ending. Here is the 1M. Note that Wave 4 typically retraces less than 0.382, which is exactly true for the 2020 March low. If wave 3 ended around 2.0, then wave 5 should be around (2.0/1.618)*2.0=2.47. NDX is above that at 2.854. Also note the almost vertical slope since last year. Lets move into the 1W. You can see the NDX starting to roll over in the last several candles. Now the all important 1D. Here I use my handy-dandy cRSI+Wave indicator to help determine the waves. I see nice 3 step up to the June peak. Note how the cRSI shows a "strong" wave followed by an "A", a "B" (in this case the indicator shows a "weak" peak), and followed by a "C" (here we see another "A"). This is typical for very strong rallies. One day I will get around to fixing this in the indicator. When you pick a Wave 1, you should see a nice alignment with a 0.618 fib and another clear peak, which we have on April 17th. Should also find a nice peak around 0.382 or 0.236, which we have. I am 100% confident that June 10th is the end of Wave 1. On the 1D chart I exclude the wicks and shadows for aligning the fib levels. Now we need to look for a Wave 3 around the 1.618 level. Sure enough the big rally in August gives us a nice candle wick to 1.786, which is normal for a very bullish rally. I also see a really nice peak at the 1.382 fib level. The alignment to fib levels is looking spot on to me. We get a nice correction following this rally, which is another good indicator that a major wave was just finished. Now comes Wave 5 and is showing a clear impulse pattern to give us an ending diagonal pattern. The rebound in Oct serves as sub-wave 1. Lining up the fib levels like before (note the nice alignment to the 0.618 fib) we see a nice wave 3 ending around Jan 4th. This time we see a perfect ABC pattern in the cRSI+Wave indicator (NDX not quite as bullish as before). You can also see the tell tale signs of a rising wedge pattern that defines the ending diagonal. Since we tagged 1.618 perfectly, we should be looking for wave 5 to end around 2.0, and I see a 2.146 (green fib). Looking back at the fib levels off the March low (black) we see the NDX touching the 2.146 level also. That is two wave counts converging in the exact same location and both at 2.146. In addition, to me it looks like a double-top pattern forming after last weak's sell off. What's more, the NDX is also just touching a 2.854 fib level based on the dot com as wave 1. You can also see that major orange resistance line I drew off the dot com bubble high. That is an amazing amount of lines all meeting in the same location. Maybe the NDX will see that as a challenge and break it just to screw us all one more time. I think more than likely it will churn around for a few more days trying to break through and eventually make a sizable pull back to gain more support before trying again. Hope it helps and good luck.
TVC:NDQ
by Dr_Roboto
3
NASDAQ March 2000 vs January 2021 - Touching dot com resistanceUsing same analysis that I did for the 1982 channel and trend lines for the S&P. The trend lines directly correspond to key highs and lows of the dot com bubble when using this one trend line slope. Note we are just 3% short of the dot com bubble top channel. The top in 2000. FYI the main (FOMO or greater fool's) rally of the dot com bubble only lasted 5 months from Oct 18, 1999 until March 24, 2000. The support line that defines the slope of the trend lines. Monthly time frame and RSI
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Dr_Roboto
NASDAQ Dot Com Bubble 2.0 is almost complete (mid-January)!!!The chart says it all. There is no stopping tech until it reaches the top of that channel some where in mid-January (Jan 19 on current slope). We all know this market is built on fairy tails and unicorn poop. Will the markets stay irrational and take us even higher? Will we finally see the return of common sense and fundamentals? I have been saying this market is a bubble for months and it still went up, so why stop now. I would expect a serious pullback at that trend line either way! If the markets wants to go above it is going to have to make it more attractive, which it will do with a nice correction and consolidation. RSI on the 1M Support trend line to the top Several key trend lines
TVC:NDQ
by Dr_Roboto
15
Sharp 🪒 drop 📉 on NASDAQ: How i will play today sessionHi guys sharing just my thoughs of my today market gameplan. Today wil be crucial Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate numbers in conjuction with wednesdays sharp decline in ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The long term unemployed rise sharply: static.seekingalpha.com Total payroll growth accelerated sharply immediately after the lockdowns were lifted, but has since slowed. This makes tomorrow's jobs report that much more important. A decrease would be very bad as it would confirm the drop in the ADP report from wednesdays, while also indicating an abrupt change in the underlying economy. static.seekingalpha.com So this could be some kind of catalyst of move today and next week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tomasgei
3
NDX DOES IT PIVOT HERE?I'm observing some interesting trends on this NDX renko chart. Take a look at my lower wavetrend indicator and the simple, yet remarkable, patterns that exist. This chart goes back 10 years but I really want you to focus on the giant ascending broadening wedge (aka megaphone) from 2018 until now. I see this area as a potential pivot but we're just as likely to melt-up, even if we do have another correction. I'd love to see a #6 of this megaphone but I'm not certain of that. If the NDX eventually breaks above this pattern then it will most likely soar similarly to 1999-2002. This seems absurd but it's not unlikely considering the ingredients baked into our current monetary cake. I will consider a long hedge (2023+) calls in QQQ if we can have another nice correction but I don't like the risk/reward of going long here. Let's see if we can get another nice pull back.
TVC:NDQ
by gghsusa
3
NASDAQ another run at fib ext 1.236(12639) - Break or reject?The NASDAQ used the overnight session again to push towards a new ATH at the 1.236(12639) fib extension from the Sept low. It is overbought on the cRSI, but there is still room to go higher based on previous patterns. Will it be rejected again for a final dump or will it break through this time. I am amazed at how bullish the NASDAQ. The theory has been all year that once the vaccine rolled out investors would rotate our of the nose bleed tech stocks and to the depressed/value S&P stocks. So far both the S&P and NASDAQ are still bullishly going up together. Personally, I got stopped out of my SQQQ yesterday, and I guess I am glad I did. Would have been an ugly morning to wake up to this. Well, hope my charts help and sorry if yesterday's guess at a pump and dump turned out to be a double pump. These afterhours price movements with morning gap ups is getting really old after 9 months.
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by Dr_Roboto
2