Time to load the short positionsLook at MSFT, NVDA, FB, etc. They are all getting close to double topping and will lead the way for the next leg down soon. Price of the NASDAQ closed right on a resistance line and I'd like to think sell orders are lined up from here all the way to 9584 or so. The two arrows are the possibilities from here. If it falls, I think itll bounce on the first demand zone then retrace to make a small double top. If it continues, 9584 will form the double top.
Don't pay attention to the dates the arrows will fulfill the destinations. That was just my best guess. I will be going short with SQQQ.
I'm not a professional trader. I've been recently studying supply and demand zones and feel like we are near the pivot point. This is not trading advice, just an idea and one I'm going with.
SQQQ
QQQ - Test of the High FailYesterday the battle to take out 219.07 raged on but in the end, The Qs fell short of taking out the monthly closing high. This is my first major sell signal. It is possible that prices will move higher as the inter-month high in February moved above 237, still nearly 10% higher than current prices so I will look for inter-month, i.e., daily or weekly signals in addition to other statistical indicators I follow to give me a better timing model. I traded SQQQ this week, a 3X down but decided I did not want to be that aggressive trying to pick a top, especially in a vehicle that has been as strong as QQQ even as we face a possible depression of unknown proportions.
For now, I am totally on the sidelines (stocks) with only a position in SDS, a 2X down instrument for SPX. I liquidated gold and silver stocks for the week but have October puts and short calls on SLV. While the trading action this week has shown strength, seems that the gold/silver cycle is topping and I wait patiently for better prices.
QQQ Getting a *Little* ExpensiveIf we completely ignore the news, the graph of QQQ seems to be recovering quite nicely. For a technical trader it's extremely optimistic. Then, if you look at any sort of news, this trading at Jan 2020 levels seems absolutely insane. Both sides have good cases, but I am going to choose to ignore each of them. The indexes are beyond unpredictable right now (see GDP -4.8%, IXIC +3%) that my options trading is pivoting towards almost exclusively to singular companies - as opposed to my typical index/ETF trades. I hate to sit on the fence here, but anyone who says they know where this is going is ignoring half the data on either side. Good luck to all!
SHORT THAT BEAST !!This is one of the most bullish setups I have seen during this year !!!
It's a leveraged inverse ETF on the Nasdaq that I have been followin now for 14 days !!
NOW WAS THE PERFECT TIME TO SHORT THE NASDAQ !!
The beginning of the 2nd wave of the sell off !
This will be my personal Big Short of the year !
Wish me good luck.
SQQQ could go to 41$ when it's gonna go throught 22$I have a backstory of being wrong, i've lost a lot of money between june and december on SQQQ
but lately i predicted the Covid Drop, the "'after bubble" and since then it reminded me my errors were that i was trading SQQQ on a large scale instead of a 15min scale
at 15min scale you can always count on it to go back to RSI 60
still when you zoom back, you notice that if we get a second wave down, we could go at 41$
witch is the 100 MA weekly also
yet we need to pop throught 22$
and that seems to be possible because of the gann fan that when throught the 2/1 channel
it did the same with NQ ES RYT etc.. we all went throught 2/1 channel at gann fan so normaly we could get a big push from here
that if all the fundamentals arent switch because of a lie from the president again
i still say the the mexico trade deal and syria were the biggest fraud the market reacted too.
$203 DOLLAR SPY IF THE U.S STAYS CLOSEDThis is what I'm looking at if things don't change soon there might be no coming back from this.
This post is only on the technical side of things since we all know what's happening in the world.
I can see anywhere in the range of 216 down to 198 or lower depending on what happens next.
Let's just pray we see a gold-backed USD soon.
IGNORE JOBLESS CLAIMS; FOCUS ON THIS EARLY WARNING INSTEADTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
JOBLESS CLAIMS
Jobless Claims came at 6.648 million vs. 2.8 million consensus.
In general, stock market investors should pay attention to jobless claims. In normal times for the stock market, jobless claims carry heavy weight in our Asset Allocation Model. There are two reasons for stock market investors to pay attention to jobless claims. First it is a leading indicator. Second it is released on a weekly basis; many economic indicators that impact the stock market are released on a monthly basis. Due to coronavirus shutdown, jobless claims numbers are shocking but they are already discounted in the stock market.
Our call in the prior week was also to ignore jobless claims that week because they were already discounted in the stock market. After the really bad jobless claims number was released, the overhang of the potential bad news was lifted from the stock market. Typically when the overhang over the stock market is lifted, the stock market rallies. This is exactly what happened in the prior week.
This week, once again, investors should ignore the shocking jobless claims. This week there is no overhang to lift because the jobless claims are roughly in line with the consensus. Instead investors should consider focusing on this early warning indicator. Let’s explore with the help of two charts.
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THE CHART
- The chart of junk bonds is a day chart giving investors a short term perspective.
- The chart shows the drop in the prices of junk bonds as the coronavirus dislocation spread across the markets.
- The chart shows countertrend rally in high yield bonds.
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EARLY WARNING INDICATOR
The chart is your early warning indicator for four reasons:
- In a recession, junk bonds tend to perform more like stocks.
- In my over 30 years in the markets, I have consistently experienced that credit analysts tend to be more accurate than the stock market analysts.
- There is a high probability that junk bonds will break the support shown on the second chart before the stock market breaks the mother of support zones if coronavirus situation worsens. I have previously written that the mother of support zones has an 80% probability of holding.
- If the junk bonds break above the resistance shown on the second chart, that will be an early indication that the coronavirus situation is getting better.
Semiconductor stocks have been leading indicators for the stock market. For this reason, it is important to watch semiconductor stocks such as AMD (AMD) and Micron (MU). It is also important to watch large-cap technology stocks such as Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).
Made 45$/Hour With Scalping Indicator on SPY Live TradingIn this video, we went over the trades.
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See you guys tomorrow.
Take it easy.
~Bo
Hedging w/ $sqqq.Spot shares in from 26.12, stop at 24.7$.
Position to hedge other investments in case global markets continue to slide, <25% infection thesis still in play.
Invalidation is perfect for this setup as if this setup were to be invalidated, it means global markets would have reclaimed a huge support level and are now heading up back to cover most of the drawdown.
0% Interest Rate & Trump’s Announcement& Corona Virus’ GrowthKey things to take away from this:
Fed cut rates to 0%.
Trump's positive talk with interest rate cut on Sunday was not enough to pump the stocks.
TD9 is still giving a bear market state.
Day traders can sell any selling opportunities if they think the bear is on.
Take it easy team.
See you on the next one.
~Bo Bugra
SQQQ entry zone for long
Ciao Traders !
I will , as usual, wait for signs of reversal in the green area
Happy trading to all !
Disclaimer:
This is not financial or investment advice
I am not a professional in the financial or investment fields
This analysis is just for entertainment purposes
Do not follow what I do or do it at your own risk
$sqqq : hedge the moneyAfter a wonderful week of trades including $tsla, $zion, $intc, $hal, and many more, profits locked, I opened spot and options positions before the close.
I believe that this is one of the potential blow-offs, run the Friday close at or close to ATHs before running it back down considerably before POTUS run and worsening trade climate turns market for the worse.
In on spot from 29.05, stop 28.21, 84 cents of invalidation.
Additionally, I have :
11/15 31$ calls, in at .69$.
12/20 32$ calls, in at 1.42$.
12/20 34$ calls, in at 1.1$.
May fortune favor the bold.