Hanging man: to short the Nasdaq or to be sent to the gallows.This is the strongest bearish pattern ever.
Happen one to twice a year.
Cause of it, the index felt hard on early post-market.
I advice to short the NDX with x3 leverage at the closing / in the post-market. But it's probably too late for you now, a lots of traders did it and the index felt hard... Btw it's good to know for the next time you will see this pattern...! Easy money.
The last 4 hanging-man spoke for themselves...
If you want to see what happen after a hanging man (10 previous years on NDX and SPY), glance at my excel sheet:
docs.google.com
I sold at the closing (15130), took the profit from yesterday purchase (there is no small money! :D), then short with x3 leverage.
SQQQ
TQQQ Trade idea for this weekif 48.20 holds off the open, I will be looking to go long off of a retest of the area.
There are two levels of resistance that may make this more of a swing trade if we barcode in consolidation or capitulation.
Lot's of earnings data this week and Wednesday Fed, hawkish stance.
MSFT had some negative action after market with a host of other Blue chip tech reporting soon
AMZN and many others looking bearish, looking for bottoming signs...
I will be keeping a very tight stop on this trade, as I am more Bearish than Bullish and will most likely also be playing the SQQQ
on which scenario are you going to bet?Based on the current momentum, I rather bet on the 1st possibility and keep in mind that 2 could be the alternative!
How about you?
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
The Santa rally came on the new year.SQQQ I was waiting and waiting on this one and we all knew it was going to come and it finally did.
My last charts are now useless now that they did a reverse split on the thing 5:1.
Well if they did not do that then it would have dropped past a buck and been delisted eventually so they had no choice.
Maybe I am a broken clock who is right twice a year but I will chalk this one up asa win.
A 45% gain in 16 trading days is pretty amazing for SQQQ - I usually expect a win of 7% or maybe 12% but 45% is unreal.
Here lies a 21 months bull trend.Supports broken.
Same thing on AMEX:SPY , including his EMA.
Even the best indicators got difficult to be read.
We clearly are going out of our 15 months channel.
Things start to be hazy.
I hope you made a lot of money on the past two years because it's becoming trickier.
My take home message would be:
" There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing. ” (Jesse Lauriston Livermore)
I can't say if it is going to be a bear trend or if it will stabilize round theses prices.
If you don't want to go fishing, you can go short, but we could see drawback until the past levels (round 16500 for NASDAQ:NDX ).
Your past indicators will be less accurate, cause the trend is shifting, and the rules of the game are changing.
This is time to test your psychology and your risk management strategy. Time to learn the news rules also! Or time to take a beak ;)
If you liked this idea I would be happy to see your comments!! :)
If you dislike, I would be even happier because the improvement of our strategies is boosted by opposite smart views and opinions!
SQQQ Santa rally came early - so does the nest one start on....The reason I added 'so far so good' to the last post was that it was running up and a few days later it broke up above $7 as far as xmas rally It looks like I was off by 2 days. Usually when SQQQ goes below the green line (50 day moving average) it pushes up to the 100 day moving average (the slower Blue Line). This is not an everyday thing - it last did it a few months ago from the beginning to the end of September and ran up 28% then this recent run was short (NOV 22 - DEC 6) but ran up 22%.
The Stochastic RSI (orange and blue lines at the bottom of the chart.) StockRSI show us when it falls to zero on SQQQ it is time to buy and with in a week or a month you will run up 20-30%
This is great in years of sideways chop in the market, as people run from stock into cash and then back to stock again, that high volatility can generate great returns if you can catch the signals. It looks like SQQQ will fall for the rest of the year back below $5 and some equities will run up after Xmas - by then the Covid infection rate should be high which will cast doubt on the markets and scaring people back into cash. It might happen next week it might happen next month. It is hard to say, if you look at the Stochastic RSI it can go down to zero and stay there for a month before it take off again with one of these +20% moves.
This one is a lagging indicator and you can miss it by and inch or a mile.
Not trading advice i did not take this trade -I have been working on perfecting this system for a year and only took one trade on it in the spring. i will save this one in my back pocket for next September when every one sells Rosh Hashana and buys Yom Kippur.
Now that i think about this the Lunar new Year is coming up and that would be a great overlay on this chart for the next pump. has anyone had luck timing this with the luna new year?
We might be in for another short squeeze i.e. 2019/2020This is a demonstration on how doomer bears are always too early. Everyone knows it's supposed to crash soon, so they load up on puts and the options are too imbalanced to let it fall. Instead the puts get squeezed at options expiry and the prices flies up.
Once again we just saw a huge Head & Shoulders pattern bounce near the neckline and trap bears expecting a sell off AFTER FOMC, when the sell-off obviously started BEFORE. This was the signal that a short squeeze was coming, selling too early ahead of the event.
If you like Sushi you need to read this!Betting against the market has increased significantly!
In the past 2-4 weeks the volume of the 4 inverse ETFs has increased significantly (+2x)!
This means lower prices are more likely!
What could happen in the next 3 weeks if prices pass the Red lines?
Market Reversals and the Sushi Roll Technique:
In his book "The Logical Trader," Mark Fisher discusses techniques for identifying potential market tops and bottoms.
Capturing trending movements in a stock or other type of asset can be lucrative. However, getting caught in a reversal is what most traders who pursue trendings stock fear. A reversal is anytime the trend direction of a stock or other type of asset changes. Being able to spot the potential of a reversal signals to a trader that they should consider exiting their trade when conditions no longer look favorable. Reversal signals can also be used to trigger new trades, since the reversal may cause a new trend to start.
One technique that Fisher discusses is called the "sushi roll." While it has nothing to do with food..!
The "sushi roll" is a technical pattern that can be used as an early warning system to identify potential changes in the market direction of a stock.
When the sushi roll pattern emerges in a downtrend, it alerts traders to a potential opportunity to buy a short position, or get out of a short position.
When the sushi roll pattern emerges in an uptrend, it alerts traders to a potential opportunity to sell a long position, or buy a short position.
A test was conducted using the sushi roll reversal method versus a traditional buy-and-hold strategy in executing trades on the Nasdaq Composite during a 14-year period; sushi roll reversal method returns were 29.31%, while buy-and-hold returned 10.66%.
Sushi Roll Reversal Pattern
Fisher defines the sushi roll reversal pattern as a period of 10 bars in which the first five (inside bars) are confined within a narrow range of highs and lows and the second five (outside bars) engulf the first five with both a higher high and lower low.3 The pattern is similar to a bearish or bullish engulfing pattern, except that instead of a pattern of two single bars, it is composed of multiple bars.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Reference Article:
www.investopedia.com
Head and shoulders?It starts to look like a head and shoulders.
Look carefully at the levels, on the previous year each time the line was crossed, the trend tumbled toward the support.
By the way I am resolutely bearish since friday (due to my technical indicators, which were the subject of my last post).
US100 breaking trendlinecrab like pattern + Rsi divergence + candlestick confirmation + trendline break + inflation fears, higher yields, lower bonds
=dumpage of stock holdings -----> long $sqqq calls
one lockdown away from a major correction
Proshares Shorts is descending lower. SQQQZigzag, broke floor, negative momentum, the trend continues.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
More correction is coming..!After a +12% increase in 1 month, now correction is more likely!
Reversal Patterns in the daily chart:
1- Spinning Top
2- Doji after the Spinning Top
3- Bearish Engulfing after the Doji
4- Increased bet against NASDAQ (increased volume of SQQQ)
Fortunately, I was ready for this! I closed all positions in the past few days and yesterday open reversed ETF position!
est,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Betting Against the market..!Monitoring the volume of reversed ETF shows increased volume against S&P 500 and Dow Jones in the past week!
I will monitor these for possible buy opportunities and benefitting from a possible market correction!
a 3-5% correction could push these higher 9-15%..!
They need to complete a reversal pattern above the green lines first!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.